How good is Trout's start, relative to previous seasons?

[Angelsjunky]

Through 43 team games and 38 games played, Trout is hitting .323/.434/.699 with 12 HR, a 225 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR. How does that compare to previous years?

Here's how Trout looked through 43 team games, from 2012-22:

2012 (May 21): 21 G, .350/.413/.600, 4 HR, 178 wRC+, 1.5 WAR (31st, not qualified); Rest of Season WAR: 8.6

2013 (May 18): 43 G, .285/.370/.529, 8 HR, 152 wRC+, 2.2 WAR (14th); ROS WAR: 8.0

2014 (May 18): 43 G, .263/.360/.515, 8 HR, 150 wRC+, 1.9 WAR (10th); ROS WAR: 6.4 

2015 (May 23): 43 G, .302/.395/.553, 11 HR, 158 wRC+, 2.3 WAR (3rd); ROS WAR: 7.0

2016 (May 21): 43 G, .321/.410/.568, 10 HR, 164 wRC+, 2.2 WAR (5th); ROS WAR: 6.4

2017 (May 17): 37 G, .341/.451/.742, 13 HR, 206 wRC+, 2.6 WAR (1st); ROS WAR: 3.8 (injured)

2018 (May 16): 43 G, .298/.440/.616, 12 HR, 183 wRC+, 2.9 WAR (2nd); ROS WAR: 6.6 

2019 (May 15): 40 G, .278/.449/.541, 9 HR, 157 wRC+, 2.0 WAR (7th); ROS WAR: 6.3

2020 (Sept 8): 38 G, .301/.398/.671, 15 HR, 177 wRC+, 2.2 WAR (6th); ROS WAR: 0.4

2021 (May 19): 36 G, .333/.466/.624, 8 HR, 190 wRC+, 2.2 WAR (1st); ROS WAR: 0.0

2022 (May 23): 38 G, .323/.434/.699, 12 HR, 225 wRC+, 2.9 WAR (3rd)

 

What strikes me immediately is how consistent Trout has been - even looking only at ROS, from game 44 on. Obviously 2012 and, to a lesser degree, 2013, is an anomaly - but he missed the first part of 2012 to the Bourjos Experiment and was also somewhat of a different player back then. He missed a lot of 2017 to injury, 2020 was shortened by the pandemic, and 2021 was also lost to injury, but in 2014-16, 2018-19, he had between 6.3 and 7.0 each year.

If that pattern holds, it means he'll finish between 9.2 and 9.9 this year, or at least implies he has a good chance of reaching 9.0.

The other thing is that this is--by a good margin--his best offensive start, with that 225 wRC+ eclipsing every other start, with 2017 being second best at 206. In most years, actually, he started slow and heated up. Consider:

wRC+ Through Game 43 | After Game 43 (Difference)

2012: 178 | 165 (-7)

2013: 152 | 186 (+34)

2014: 150 | 173 (+23)

2015: 158 | 175 (+17)

2016: 164 | 172 (+8)

2017: 206 | 168 (-38)

2018: 183 | 191 (+8)

2019: 157 | 185 (+28)

2020: 177 | 122 (-55)

2021: 190 | NA 

2022: 225 | ?

Note again that Trout was better from game 44 on in every non-injury or pandemic impacted season, except for 2012 - his rookie year. In every other season, or 6 of his 7 full seasons, his hitting improved.

Now considering his current wRC+, chances are that he won't actually get better as the year goes on. I mean, in baseball history, there have only been nine 500+ PA seasons of 220 wRC+ or better: three each by Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds, two by Ted Williams, and one by Rogers Hornsby.

A more "modest" 200 wRC+ is also quite rare: Since 1901, only ten players have reached 200 wRC+ in a 500+ PA season, a total of 30 times: One-third (10) of which were done by Ruth (so we could call this the "Ruth Line"); 6 were accomplished by Williams; 4 by Bonds; 2 each by Ty Cobb, Hornsby, and Mickey Mantle; and 1 each by Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Frank Thomas, and Mark McGwire.

What about 190 wRC+? The total number is 59 seasons, with a handful of retired and two active players joining the fray: Bryce Harper (197) and Miguel Cabrera (193).

And 180 wRC+? There have been 112 such seasons, including Trout's best (188), Betts (185), and Pujols (184). Meaning, 112 such seasons in 120 years (1901-2022, not counting 1981 or 2020, both of which were shortened so that there were only a few players with 500 PA in '81 and none in '20 = roughly one 180 wRC+ season per year.

But it isn't even distributed. Of those 112 180 wRC+ seasons, half of them (56) occurred during the 1910s-40s. Since 2010, there have only been six such seasons, and not one since Trout and Mookie Betts did it in 2018. 

As for the 30 200 wRC+ seasons, there have been only six since the 1950s, and all of them between 1994 and 2004, with only two seasons reaching 190 since 2004.

So is it realistic to think that Trout will follow his usual pattern, and out-perform his early start? Probably not. While that has been his usual pattern, it just isn't reasonable to expect him to not only continue at this pace, but improve upon it. But...

That said, he may have a real shot at reaching the Ruth Line and becoming the 11th player in major league history with a full 200 wRC+ season. Again, he's always improved from here on out, except in three unusual cases: his rookie season in 2012; after coming back from a serious hand injury in 2017; and during the pandemic-shortened in 2020.

At the very least, assuming basic health, Trout is well on pace for having one of his best offensive seasons, and has a real shot at having his best (by wRC+).

[AngelsLakersFan]

[Angelsjunky]

FYI, I wrote most of this before the game. He went 2-4 and his wRC+ remains at 225.

[Taylor]

Incredible that offense is down across baseball yet Trout is still off to his best start ever.

Props on "the Bourjous Experiment." Not sure if that was an intentional nod to the infamous @Troll Daddy(RIP) thread, "Is the Bourjous Experiment over?"

[AngelsLakersFan]

I wonder how much the hitting environment is making his start look so absurdly better. I think those wRC totals are adjusted by the end of the season league averages.

[TroutField]

All I took from this post is Bryce has a higher WRC+ season than Trout does and I’m not okay with that…. 
 

Trout seems to have found that extra gear this year, he’s killing the ball and his slumps have seemed to fizzle out quickly. In the past he would fall into a slump for a week or 2, right now he seems to snap out of it after 2-3 games. 

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Incredible that offense is down across baseball yet Trout is still off to his best start ever.

Props on "the Bourjous Experiment." Not sure if that was an intentional nod to the infamous @Troll Daddy(RIP) thread, "Is the Bourjous Experiment over?"

Yep. That term is in the Angelswin Lexicon, in the sub-category of Hall of Fame Terms & Phrases (along with Edge: Lowell, Craig, etc).

7 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I wonder how much the hitting environment is making his start look so absurdly better. I think those wRC totals are adjusted by the end of the season league averages.

Yes, although they're adjusted as they go, I believe.

6 minutes ago, TroutField said:

All I took from this post is Bryce has a higher WRC+ season than Trout does and I’m not okay with that…. 
 

Yeah, I feel you on that. Pujols also has more 180 wRC+ seasons - three, to Trout's two. Who knows, maybe he can kill two birds with one stone this year.

6 minutes ago, TroutField said:

Trout seems to have found that extra gear this year, he’s killing the ball and his slumps have seemed to fizzle out quickly. In the past he would fall into a slump for a week or 2, right now he seems to snap out of it after 2-3 games. 

Yeah, I've noticed that as well. At some point, maybe I'll analyze his slumps, to see how long they have tended to last. I remember when he came back from his injury in 2017, he had a brutal slump. The end of 2020 was bad, too, and he really cooled off the last week or so last year before he got hurt. But that's just going on memory.

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Yes, although they're adjusted as they go, I believe.

 

I mean, those April/May numbers are weighed against those season’s totals, while this years April/May numbers are weighed against April/May. As it heats up offense will normalize some and Trout’s relative performance will decrease.

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I mean, those April/May numbers are weighed against those season’s totals, while this years April/May numbers are weighed against April/May. As it heats up offense will normalize some and Trout’s relative performance will decrease.

Maybe, but what makes you think offense will normalize that much?

And remember what I wrote in the original post - Trout (almost) always gets better as the year commences, including his wRC+.

Meaning, if he follows his usual pattern and stays healthy, he finishes with a 230+ wRC+. Clearly that's absurd, but I think 200 is possible.

[failos]

Spot on. Trout is extremely consistent, he just needs to stay healthy.

 

Great write up.

[3pitchwalk]

the only thing i don't like is his k%.

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, 3pitchwalk said:

the only thing i don't like is his k%.

It is high, but two things: 1) It (24.5%) is lower than last year (28.1%), and also his biggest career high in 2014 (26.1%). 2) It is still pretty early, and doesn't seem to be effect anything else.

Even his .388 BABIP isn't really a concern. His career BABIP is .349, and he's had three full seasons above .370 (2012, 2013, 2016).

Edited May 25, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

Here's another cool Trout stat: his .349 career BABIP is 32nd all time. Everyone above him has fewer HR, and only Rogers Hornsby hit over 300.

Meaning, high BABIP players are usual line-drive and/or high BA types. How I translate this is that the quality of Trout's contact - HR or not (and HR are not counted towards BABIP) - is second to none.

[AngelsLakersFan]

20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe, but what makes you think offense will normalize that much?

And remember what I wrote in the original post - Trout (almost) always gets better as the year commences, including his wRC+.

Meaning, if he follows his usual pattern and stays healthy, he finishes with a 230+ wRC+. Clearly that's absurd, but I think 200 is possible.

Weather will warm, and extremes tend to be less extreme as sample sizes increases.

[Inside Pitch]

23 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

FYI, I wrote most of this before the game. He went 2-4 and his wRC+ remains at 225.

He's now 0-3 with 3 Ks since you posted this.

[full circle]

Somebody ban this guy.

[Inside Pitch]

0-4 with 4 Ks now.  .vs Texas of all teams.

I was hoping my snark might undo the whammy...

Nope.

[rageous]

Please ban yourself.

[tdawg87]

With AJ it's inevitable.

[3pitchwalk]

2-12 with 5 ks and a weird slide since

[Angelsjunky]

What's sort of funny is that some of you actually believe in jinxes.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What's sort of funny is that some of you actually believe in jinxes.

No one really does. It's just funny that right after you make a thread about how good we are the opposite immediately happens.

I will never stop giving you shit about it. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

No one really does. It's just funny that right after you make a thread about how good we are the opposite immediately happens.

I will never stop giving you shit about it. 

Well, I admit it does seem to happen more often than not. If anything mystical is happening, it is far more likely that I'm subconsciously tapping into the quantum field and pre-cognizing a dip in performance, which inspires me to try to shift reality for the better. In other words, I'm not causing anything to happen, but my posts can be used like a divinatory system - like tarot or Nordic runes.

That said, I probably should stop sacrificing virginal farm animals.

[tdawg87]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, I admit it does seem to happen more often than not. If anything mystical is happening, it is far more likely that I'm subconsciously tapping into the quantum field and pre-cognizing a dip in performance, which inspires me to try to shift reality for the better. In other words, I'm not causing anything to happen, but my posts can be used like a divinatory system - like tarot or Nordic runes.

That said, I probably should stop sacrificing virginal farm animals.

I mean, don't stop what you're doing, obviously. You are creating content and generating traffic because a lot of people enjoy reading what you write. 

It's just fun to tease you about it.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, I admit it does seem to happen more often than not. If anything mystical is happening, it is far more likely that I'm subconsciously tapping into the quantum field and pre-cognizing a dip in performance, which inspires me to try to shift reality for the better. In other words, I'm not causing anything to happen, but my posts can be used like a divinatory system - like tarot or Nordic runes.

That said, I probably should stop sacrificing virginal farm animals.

AJ is Doctor Strange confirmed.