Canning, going forward

[rafibomb]

Pretty crazy how he only has 209 innings of experience under his belt. His first two seasons in the majors he was pretty solid with a 4.36 ERA and 4.35 FIP in 146.2 innings pitched. I don't know what was up with him this past season when a lot of us were certain he'd make the leap into a mid-rotation starter especially after his strong close to his sophomore year. Maybe the back injury was something that affected him all season?

[Junkballer]

42 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

His MRI revealed no tear to the UCL. There was no reason to have TJS. The fact that he has several issues of inflammation in his short career is worrisome. Perhaps if his back is fully healed, the 6th man rotation may help in limiting his innings. I thought someone did the math and because of the 6 man rotation it was not possible to get up to 150 innings unless the pitcher constantly goes deep in games.

True, no tear.  The diagnosis wording was "chronic changes to the UCL and acute joint irritation".  I wasn't saying he should have had TJS, because I probably wouldn't choose a more invasive procedure myself if there were less drastic options, however, I'm not a pro pitcher.  TJS was one of the options given being that PRP is hit or miss and even when successful there is an elevated possibility that TJS will still be needed in the future, see Shohei Ohtani.  He does have a history of elbow issues going back to his UCLA days, which is the primary reason they were able to draft him so late.  So, teams have to keep that in mind as the season progresses and innings add up.  It's on the back of his mind and the coaches/trainers minds.... and mine.

[Inside Pitch]

On 12/1/2021 at 6:34 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Will Canning ever become a 150 innings/season guy with decent enough stats?

Has been over 4 years since being drafted from UCLA.

Your thoughts on Tyler Mahle?  Seen a lot of ppl wanting to trade for him.  Compare his first three seasons, to Canning's.  

Personally, I think they have to throw his 2021 season out, whatever he was doing last year, mechanics/pitch mix, wasnt working.  But the talent is there to be better.

Also, 6 man rotation...

[rafibomb]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Your thoughts on Tyler Mahle?  Seen a lot of ppl wanting to trade for him.  Compare his first three seasons, to Canning's.  

Personally, I think they have to throw his 2021 season out, whatever he was doing last year, mechanics/pitch mix, wasnt working.  But the talent is there to be better.

Also, 6 man rotation...

The main reason I am not too upset about missing out on the front of the rotation guys (or would prefer to save money for the infield and catcher position) is because I feel like we are just one backend guy away from being set. I would prefer guys like Canning and Detmers be just outside the bubble heading into the season. Sort of like Suarez’s situation last year where he was not put in a position with pressure to succeed right away. Give me a guy like Greinke as our final starter signing (if we don’t make any trades or sign Rodon). 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, rafibomb said:

The main reason I am not too upset about missing out on the front of the rotation guys (or would prefer to save money for the infield and catcher position) is because I feel like we are just one backend guy away from being set. I would prefer guys like Canning and Detmers be just outside the bubble heading into the season. Sort of like Suarez’s situation last year where he was not put in a position with pressure to succeed right away. Give me a guy like Greinke as our final starter signing (if we don’t make any trades or sign Rodon). 

I push for Pineda every time he becomes available.  

[Second Base]

I've seen a lot of really good comments so far. 

@SlappyUtilityMIF You're absolutely right about Canning pitching scared. Ever since his his rookie year, he's been afraid to challenge veteran hitters on the inner half. 

@Angelsjunky You also make a couple very good points. That we shouldn't judge someone after his first 200 innings, and that Canning being on the outside looking in, needing to earn this spot. I'm curious to see how he responds. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Your thoughts on Tyler Mahle?  Seen a lot of ppl wanting to trade for him.  Compare his first three seasons, to Canning's.  

Personally, I think they have to throw his 2021 season out, whatever he was doing last year, mechanics/pitch mix, wasnt working.  But the talent is there to be better.

Also, 6 man rotation...

The two have somewhat different paths (Mahle HS to pro vs Canning college to pro).

Mahle did have strong minors numbers (similar to Canning in college), and then struggled for the Reds through age 25 season, finally putting it together in 2020-21.

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, HanfordGuy said:

His MRI revealed no tear to the UCL. There was no reason to have TJS. The fact that he has several issues of inflammation in his short career is worrisome. Perhaps if his back is fully healed, the 6th man rotation may help in limiting his innings. I thought someone did the math and because of the 6 man rotation it was not possible to get up to 150 innings unless the pitcher constantly goes deep in games.

27 starts (1/6 of 162 games) to get to 150 innings = 5 1/2 innings per start.

Of course, pitchers making every scheduled start is somewhat endangered, especially Halos pitchers.

[Second Base]

And the chronic changes to his elbow are what caused him to dive in the draft. Evidently there was already some wear and teae, which isn't unexpected from someone that has pitched competitively in the Southern California baseball scene since he was 9 years old. 

The fact that it's bad enough that he's missing time with it suggests that it really isn't going to get better, it's just one of those things he'll have to manage.

90 pitchers or 5 innings each start, pitching one a week instead of every five days, which shaves off like five starts throughout the season. Less off-season throwing, regularly managing workload in June and September, and most unfortunately, more frequent PRP injections, which you REALLY don't want to do. 

Add it all together, and you're looking at 20-25 starts per year and 100-150 innings. 

What I'm most concerned about are the quality of those innings. Canning has the stuff to be a successful mid rotation starter, but it's between his ears. I think he's intimidated and I think he gets rattled. I'm hoping the longer he's in the league, both of those flaws can be mitigated. 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Second Base

[AngelStew43]

I think Canning may turn into a very good reliever.  Maybe even a closer.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

50 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I've seen a lot of really good comments so far. 

@SlappyUtilityMIF You're absolutely right about Canning pitching scared. Ever since his his rookie year, he's been afraid to challenge veteran hitters on the inner half. 

@Angelsjunky You also make a couple very good points. That we shouldn't judge someone after his first 200 innings, and that Canning being on the outside looking in, needing to earn this spot. I'm curious to see how he responds. 

 

Thanks 2B....

Pitching scared is just confidence and trusting in your ability. Knowing that your stuff is good enough to get Major League hitters out and that you deserve to be here. Happens to all young pitchers until they figure it out. I believe the arm issues have more to do with it than is let on. If you think every time you throw a specific pitch its going to hurt. You're not going to want to throw it. Or, you won't be as committed on the pitch within the count.

I still think that the medical team and training staff could be an issue.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

The two have somewhat different paths (Mahle HS to pro vs Canning college to pro).

Mahle did have strong minors numbers (similar to Canning in college), and then struggled for the Reds through age 25 season, finally putting it together in 2020-21.

Those near 600 minor league innings were extremely valuable for Mahle, a luxury Canning wasn't afforded.   Too much is being made of Canning's failed 2021.  Dude is 25, has four years of control.  

[ThisismineScios]

I think it’s important for Canning to develop into a mid-rotation guy. If Sandoval can elevate his game one more level, and Detmers settles in, we suddenly have a very good young controllable rotation. Suarez, Bachman, Canning, Bush/Marceaux/Daniel/Kochanowicz can fill out the back end. And…it’s no longer a boatload of conditionals—a lot of these guys now have ML experience and have had a modicum of success. The pressure is off for Suarez, Canning, and Detmers in particular, and I think it’ll give them a confidence boost going into 2022  

I think C-Rod is a super reliever going forward, but I’d love to be wrong. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

52 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

I think it’s important for Canning to develop into a mid-rotation guy. If Sandoval can elevate his game one more level, and Detmers settles in, we suddenly have a very good young controllable rotation. Suarez, Bachman, Canning, Bush/Marceaux/Daniel/Kochanowicz can fill out the back end. And…it’s no longer a boatload of conditionals—a lot of these guys now have ML experience and have had a modicum of success. The pressure is off for Suarez, Canning, and Detmers in particular, and I think it’ll give them a confidence boost going into 2022  

I think C-Rod is a super reliever going forward, but I’d love to be wrong. 

100% that's on the Organization truthfully. Everyone see's the ability and arm and want one thing. But, there isn't any one voice saying.... "Some guys just need to be relievers with electric stuff"... I think that's part of the problem with our Organizational Pitching philosophy! There isn't that voice of reason in the back (Like a Marcel Lachmann) saying look. Stretching him out right now may not be the best thing for the arm and the ballplayer. There is so much push for the stud arms to move so quickly. When they breakdown or have set backs the thought process is to place an innings limit on them one season and the push the following season!

For CROD why not let him throw 2-4 innings a week. Show consistent health arm wise. Put him as a setup man and let him do it for a couple seasons? Prove arm health and then extend him or maybe you have your Closer of the Future?

There is just too much "Turn em and Burn em philosophy in today's game". And to me it sucks. Your asset does nothing but collect rust when it's on the shelf for multiple seasons. 

I'm not even a fan of the 6man rotation (BUT, I get it with Ohtani). And if done correctly a 5man rotation can still be effective in today's game. 

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Those near 600 minor league innings were extremely valuable for Mahle, a luxury Canning wasn't afforded.   Too much is being made of Canning's failed 2021.  Dude is 25, has four years of control.  

Point well taken.

The only question left is regarding the strength of schedule Canning faced at UCLA.  Did it equate to rookie ball, A ball, or A+ ball?

2020’s short season didn’t do him any favors, to be sure.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Thanks 2B....

Pitching scared is just confidence and trusting in your ability. Knowing that your stuff is good enough to get Major League hitters out and that you deserve to be here. Happens to all young pitchers until they figure it out. I believe the arm issues have more to do with it than is let on. If you think every time you throw a specific pitch its going to hurt. You're not going to want to throw it. Or, you won't be as committed on the pitch within the count.

I still think that the medical team and training staff could be an issue.

This highlights the second big perceived fault with Arte Moreno, along with a love of sluggers.

Does he penny pinch too much in areas not visible to the casual fan, but they are very important?  Like scouting and development, and medical/training staff?

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, rafibomb said:

The main reason I am not too upset about missing out on the front of the rotation guys (or would prefer to save money for the infield and catcher position) is because I feel like we are just one backend guy away from being set. I would prefer guys like Canning and Detmers be just outside the bubble heading into the season. Sort of like Suarez’s situation last year where he was not put in a position with pressure to succeed right away. Give me a guy like Greinke as our final starter signing (if we don’t make any trades or sign Rodon). 

For sure they need a guy, wherever he would fit in rotation, who can be counted on to supply 150 innings of no worse than 4.50 ERA.

They’ve gone far long enough with limited innings rotations.  That has to start changing now.

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

100% that's on the Organization truthfully. Everyone see's the ability and arm and want one thing. But, there isn't any one voice saying.... "Some guys just need to be relievers with electric stuff"... I think that's part of the problem with our Organizational Pitching philosophy! There isn't that voice of reason in the back (Like a Marcel Lachmann) saying look. Stretching him out right now may not be the best thing for the arm and the ballplayer. There is so much push for the stud arms to move so quickly. When they breakdown or have set backs the thought process is to place an innings limit on them one season and the push the following season!

For CROD why not let him throw 2-4 innings a week. Show consistent health arm wise. Put him as a setup man and let him do it for a couple seasons? Prove arm health and then extend him or maybe you have your Closer of the Future?

Even better, have CRod on two scheduled 2 innings outings every 8 days (3 days rest in between each)?   That’s about 90-100 innings in year one.

Then increase it to two scheduled outings totaling 5 innings every 8 days?   That increases the innings pitched to 110-120 in year two.

Then, provided no serious health issues, make him a starter?

Edited December 3, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Point well taken.

The only question left is regarding the strength of schedule Canning faced at UCLA.  Did it equate to rookie ball, A ball, or A+ ball?

2020’s short season didn’t do him any favors, to be sure.

It's more than just the level of competition it's the amount and the quality of the coaching.  If you had to compare it to pro ball it can range anywhere from advanced rookie ball to A ball -- it's really dependent on the talent in a conference in any given year..   

The big difference, what people seemingly fail to take into consideration is the amount of development time per day in the minors .vs college.  Not sure what the numbers are now but the NCAA limited coach led practice time to 20 hours per week in season and games counted as 3 hours -- everyone tends to go over that, but 30 hours is probably the max they get away with, partially because guys have to also do that school thing and study time.  Player led practice time and cage work happens too, but there's a difference between effing off with your buddies doing baseball stuff and coach time.  Maybe more importantly coach involved practice time is reduced to 8 hours per week out of season.  Instructs, winter, ball, camp time.  It's night and day different.

In the minors it's baseball 24/7 in season.  The quality of coaches is better.  At every level there is almost always going to be a guy far more experienced than you, it's just a very different situation and there's the wood .vs metal bats thing which is probably the least impactful, but if does alter how a pitcher attacks hitters.

Canning has spent a grand total of 340 innings combined as a pro -- Mahle was able to put in 156 innings at AA alone, 485 innings above A ball.  Canning spent what amounts to one year/season in the minors -- Mahle four.  That's a huge difference.  

First three MLB seasons:
Canning: 209.1 IP, 4.73 ERA (96 ERA+), 4.69 FIP, 1.338 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.2 k/9  -- including a Covid wasted season.
T Mahle: 261.2 IP, 4.88 ERA (91 ERA+), 4.86 FIP, 1.445 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

Mahle was a year younger, but save for BB/9 Canning has outperformed him across the board.  Canning's 2021 needs to be viewed as an outlier until it proves otherwise -- it was a massive underperformance.

Maybe the best thing to point towards when talking about Canning is what his MLB career looked like entering 2021
146 IP, 4.36 ERA, 106 ERA+, 4.35 FIP, 1.275 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 9.3 K/9.

 

[stormngt]

15 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

For sure they need a guy, wherever he would fit in rotation, who can be counted on to supply 150 innings of no worse than 4.50 ERA.

They’ve gone far long enough with limited innings rotations.  That has to start changing now.

Letting starters pitch into the 6th inning would be nice.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 12/2/2021 at 7:36 PM, Inside Pitch said:

I push for Pineda every time he becomes available.  

Id like to get him just to see AO call him pinata when he gets hit.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 12/3/2021 at 6:29 AM, Inside Pitch said:

It's more than just the level of competition it's the amount and the quality of the coaching.  If you had to compare it to pro ball it can range anywhere from advanced rookie ball to A ball -- it's really dependent on the talent in a conference in any given year..   

The big difference, what people seemingly fail to take into consideration is the amount of development time per day in the minors .vs college.  Not sure what the numbers are now but the NCAA limited coach led practice time to 20 hours per week in season and games counted as 3 hours -- everyone tends to go over that, but 30 hours is probably the max they get away with, partially because guys have to also do that school thing and study time.  Player led practice time and cage work happens too, but there's a difference between effing off with your buddies doing baseball stuff and coach time.  Maybe more importantly coach involved practice time is reduced to 8 hours per week out of season.  Instructs, winter, ball, camp time.  It's night and day different.

In the minors it's baseball 24/7 in season.  The quality of coaches is better.  At every level there is almost always going to be a guy far more experienced than you, it's just a very different situation and there's the wood .vs metal bats thing which is probably the least impactful, but if does alter how a pitcher attacks hitters.

Canning has spent a grand total of 340 innings combined as a pro -- Mahle was able to put in 156 innings at AA alone, 485 innings above A ball.  Canning spent what amounts to one year/season in the minors -- Mahle four.  That's a huge difference.  

First three MLB seasons:
Canning: 209.1 IP, 4.73 ERA (96 ERA+), 4.69 FIP, 1.338 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.2 k/9  -- including a Covid wasted season.
T Mahle: 261.2 IP, 4.88 ERA (91 ERA+), 4.86 FIP, 1.445 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

Mahle was a year younger, but save for BB/9 Canning has outperformed him across the board.  Canning's 2021 needs to be viewed as an outlier until it proves otherwise -- it was a massive underperformance.

Maybe the best thing to point towards when talking about Canning is what his MLB career looked like entering 2021
146 IP, 4.36 ERA, 106 ERA+, 4.35 FIP, 1.275 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 9.3 K/9.

 

I agree with your entire post IP... I also, have to believe that the decreased walks/9 for Mahle is based on the pitcher (no DH) and the leaner lineups in the bottom half of most of the NL teams. 

That is one reason why I question success in the NL vs the AL for arms other than ToRP's... I'd rather be the 2nd AL team for most of these guys than the 1st. I would like to see that their #'s translate. Without the adjustment time. Trust me it comes back to confidence thing and Mental Side of the Game when you get down to it. The stud ToRP's don't care they know they can beat people and throw it by guys. 

THE DH and the tendency of most AL lineups being stronger in the bottom 3rd of the order due to the DH and a hitter like an UPTOWN being in the 7th spot (or even an adell with some power potential), hide a guy in the 8th spot and then the 2nd leadoff hitter at the 9th spot. (which is why LaRussa use to hit the pitchers in the 8th spot at times) 7th spot Good Power they are just imperfect hitters in one way or the other. Which is also why I think some of the NL teams that aren't overall solid lineup wise have good results with imperfect hitters placed into the bottom half of the line-up (The Brewers, Braves-this year, Dodgers (Muncey & Taylor comes to mind before they became confident hitters) do this well) while the Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Marlins, Rockies, D-Backs are empty (I haven't gone through each lineup). The results show a increased amount of HR's in those hitters while a decreased overall AVG and OBP. But those teams are able to find lightning in a bottle once in a while. Or, have a power threat with a couple intentional walks to better hitters late in the game. 

This is the reason I question some NL hitters changing leagues due to the overall decreased ability of pitching staffs in the NL. There is also a talent dilution with so many teams. But, the hitter equation is also evident. In players that move from the NL to the AL as they face better pitchers overall who have had to be better, more confident, and have the ability in going up against the extra hitter (DH). So, those pitchers would be better and the Hitter would be at a disadvantage in hitting against a better prepared pitcher.

[wopphil]

Canning’s problems last year seemed to be entirely a problem with consistency. He had many very good starts, showing that the stuff is clearly there. But he also had a number of clunkers. That’s obviously going to be the case with most pitchers over the course of any given season, but it seems to have been more pronounced with Canning last year. If he can iron out some of his consistency issues, he should easily be a number 3/4. 

[eligrba]

On 12/2/2021 at 9:59 PM, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Thanks 2B....

Pitching scared is just confidence and trusting in your ability. Knowing that your stuff is good enough to get Major League hitters out and that you deserve to be here. Happens to all young pitchers until they figure it out. I believe the arm issues have more to do with it than is let on. If you think every time you throw a specific pitch its going to hurt. You're not going to want to throw it. Or, you won't be as committed on the pitch within the count.

I still think that the medical team and training staff could be an issue.

I suspect if Canning was handled differently, he would have more recent success.  His biggest issue is being a talented young pitcher in an organization who prefers to sign veteran garbage.  He really needed more time in the minors than what Eppler allowed.  This is where Billy fucked up and put a group of young pitchers' careers in jeopardy by promoting them too early because he could not do his job.

[Dtwncbad]

Will Canning EVER put it together and be an effective, reliable starter?

Probably.

How much confidence do I have that it will happen in 2022, when the Angels need it?

Pretty close to zero.

I hope I am wrong.