Rosenthal: Robbie Ray atop the Angels wishlist (signs with Seattle lmao)

[mmc]

[failos]

[tdawg87]

Hmm.

Rosenthal isn't terrible. Probably some truth to this.

[Lou]

I'd rather see Ray's list.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'd rather see Ray's list.

Your kiss is on my list.

@cals

[ScottM]

I'm all the way in on this. Unless it's an astronomical Pujosian contract, this makes the Angels contenders (along with Loup and Thor). Still need a closer. 

[UndertheHalo]

13 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Hmm.

Rosenthal isn't terrible. Probably some truth to this.

The bow tie sucks shit

[ScottM]

He also mentioned God in his Cy Young announcement interview so you know Arte is all over this.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

The bow tie sucks shit

You just don't understand fashion.

[Pancake Bear]

Told you Ray was who they preferred over Stroman. 

[BTH]

It's interesting that Ken was able to dig up the info that Robbie Ray is atop the Angels wish list.

It kind of feeds into the theories that the SP Chuck's source is talking about is Ray.

[CanadianHalo]

 

[Angels 1961]

40 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Told you Ray was who they preferred over Stroman. 

let's get both

[Second Base]

[Second Base]

So here's the thing with Robbie Ray. 

1. You had to know at some point Robbie Ray would win a CY. When you have high end K rates like him, hell eventually put it all together. 

2. The Angels have missed out on their own CY winner a couple different times in the last three years or so, and it makes sense they'd make Ray their last stand. He may be their last chance at getting an ace, and the cheapest possibility at that. 

3. Ray has done this before too, which is both good and bad. Good in that we know this type of performance is repeatable, bad in that he went back to sucking after that breakout campaign in Arizona. So there's little reason to believe he won't turn back into a pumpkin at some point over the length of his contract. 

4. The FIP was 3.65 suggesting that Ray was good-not-great, though other peripherals support his performance. 

5. I'm definitely interested, but the track record suggests that Ray is more of a #3-4 starter and not an ace. That doesn't mean he only deserves 3-4 money (10-20 million annually), his best performance came most recently at the right time. But I'm also not paying for a CY ace salary (30 million+) if I'm Arte. At age 30, getting a five year contract at #2-3 money (~25 million) seems more reasonable. 

----

So if costs 5/125, absolutely. But I'm guessing he'll command more than that and someone will pay. 

[Underdog Lefty]

Based on Ray’s stats at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/, I would take a pass on him.  Instead, I would go after another former Cy Young award winner that no one in Angels’ land is even talking about, Corey Kubler.  Yea, I know, he’s older than Ray and may not be what he used to be after surgery, but geez if he is able to recover successfully enough to be 80% of what he once was…….

OMG, take a look at his historical statistics on Spotrac too, they are radically better than any other free agent starting pitcher. I would take him as my 3rd, 4th or even 5th starter in a heartbeat.  He’s a bulldog on the mound and the Angels have a boatload of young pitchers throughout their organization that could learn quite a bit from him on how to take command on the mound.  Go get him on a 1 or 2-yr deal Angels, he’s worth the risk!

[tdawg87]

Lol

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

So here's the thing with Robbie Ray. 

1. You had to know at some point Robbie Ray would win a CY. When you have high end K rates like him, hell eventually put it all together. 

2. The Angels have missed out on their own CY winner a couple different times in the last three years or so, and it makes sense they'd make Ray their last stand. He may be their last chance at getting an ace, and the cheapest possibility at that. 

3. Ray has done this before too, which is both good and bad. Good in that we know this type of performance is repeatable, bad in that he went back to sucking after that breakout campaign in Arizona. So there's little reason to believe he won't turn back into a pumpkin at some point over the length of his contract. 

4. The FIP was 3.65 suggesting that Ray was good-not-great, though other peripherals support his performance. 

5. I'm definitely interested, but the track record suggests that Ray is more of a #3-4 starter and not an ace. That doesn't mean he only deserves 3-4 money (10-20 million annually), his best performance came most recently at the right time. But I'm also not paying for a CY ace salary (30 million+) if I'm Arte. At age 30, getting a five year contract at #2-3 money (~25 million) seems more reasonable. 

----

So if costs 5/125, absolutely. But I'm guessing he'll command more than that and someone will pay. 

fair synopsis.  

I like 5/125 as the price point where I'd be comfortable.  6/150 or 5/above 125 up to 150?  I get a little squeamish.  Anything above that?  yeesh.  

He was enough of a hot mess in 2020 to do two things.  First, make everyone a little wary.  And second, as a consequence, make his price tag a bit more affordable.  To me, that's likely a good thing because odds are that he will likely be anywhere from the 2021 to the 2019 version at various points of the contract.  And I'm fine with that.  because it's still pretty darn good.  180 innings with an era from 3.5 to 4.0?  That probably means he's a bit overpaid but I can live with it.  My guess is that there will be a couple years in his deal where watching him will be CJ like where the overall numbers are solid but he's frustrating.  

The old Robbie Ray was 3-5 walks per start.  Every game.  without question.  Last year, he gave up more than 3 walks twice.  And more than two walks 6 times.  He had never come close to that before.  The reason I bring that up is that he was never a guy who would completely lose it and allow 6-7 walks (rarely anyway) and then 0 walks in his next start.  He was consistent in that he just wouldn't trust his stuff and attack hitters.  Now his HR rate went up a bit last year as expected but he was also in the AL east so being in the AL west could actually improve that which, if I squint my eyes a bit, sort of gives him a bit of upside even beyond the cy young year he just had.  So I like that too.  

I think, overall, he's gonna be a good to very good pitcher the next 3+ years and at least a solid pitcher the final two years of his deal.  

So I'd be in favor of this with one caveat which I'll put in another post

[Docwaukee]

Let's do a little payroll mapping assume he's gonna make 5/125 or so.  

for 2022 and 2023 it's a non issue.  He probably gets something like 20, 25, 25, 25, 30.  But here's an interesting thing to consider.  And something that the nats  have done well over the years.  And I'm not talking about how they defer money which can work but I'm not a big fan of.  They'll balloon pay a guy in one season.  The ideal time to do that for Ray would probably be in 2027.  Rendon will be off the books and Trout will be 35.  But.  But, that means you have to sign him to a 6 year deal.  So let's call it 6/140.  

20m in the first year makes sense cuz of upton.  And how about 40 mil in the 6th year when the window is likely closing?  That leaves 80 spread over the other 4 year or 20m per year.  

Now here's where a little creativity comes into play with an Ohtani extension.  Let's say that he's gonna get 8 years.  2 of which buy out 2022 and his 2023 arb. I'm guessing it will take about 30m per AAV so 8/240.  And this is where it get's a little risky but perhaps you front load his contract after the first year.  So maybe 15 mil this year (was 6m), 20m in 2023, and 35m from 2024-26.  Which means you've got 100m left for the final 3 years or 33m per.  And in the year you balloon Ray, you pay Shohei less.  But, doesn't that make his contract more tradeable?   So at age 32 you could move him if you had to.  Rendon is off the books.  Fletcher is off the books.  And Marsh and Adell are finishing their 3rd year of arb. 

The tricky part is that it creates less payroll flex to optimize the window from 2022 to 2026/7 

[CanadianHalo]

7 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

 

I posted this because in the other thread I had mentioned his workouts last offseason.

If Ray continues to work as hard as he did last offseason moving forward I’m all for this deal. However, the way he talked about it with his wife getting mad it doesn’t sound like this will be the norm moving forward. Which I then worry he resorts back to the guy who signed a 1yr 8 million dollar deal last offseason.

[Stradling]

If he found a formula that works he will probably continue that formula until it no longer works. 

[Warfarin]

55 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Let's do a little payroll mapping assume he's gonna make 5/125 or so.  

for 2022 and 2023 it's a non issue.  He probably gets something like 20, 25, 25, 25, 30.  But here's an interesting thing to consider.  And something that the nats  have done well over the years.  And I'm not talking about how they defer money which can work but I'm not a big fan of.  They'll balloon pay a guy in one season.  The ideal time to do that for Ray would probably be in 2027.  Rendon will be off the books and Trout will be 35.  But.  But, that means you have to sign him to a 6 year deal.  So let's call it 6/140.  

20m in the first year makes sense cuz of upton.  And how about 40 mil in the 6th year when the window is likely closing?  That leaves 80 spread over the other 4 year or 20m per year.  

Now here's where a little creativity comes into play with an Ohtani extension.  Let's say that he's gonna get 8 years.  2 of which buy out 2022 and his 2023 arb. I'm guessing it will take about 30m per AAV so 8/240.  And this is where it get's a little risky but perhaps you front load his contract after the first year.  So maybe 15 mil this year (was 6m), 20m in 2023, and 35m from 2024-26.  Which means you've got 100m left for the final 3 years or 33m per.  And in the year you balloon Ray, you pay Shohei less.  But, doesn't that make his contract more tradeable?   So at age 32 you could move him if you had to.  Rendon is off the books.  Fletcher is off the books.  And Marsh and Adell are finishing their 3rd year of arb. 

The tricky part is that it creates less payroll flex to optimize the window from 2022 to 2026/7 

I think that's a solid way to map out his contract over the years.

One thing to consider is signing Ray to a long contract like this means that if Syndergaard happens to have a great rebound year and returns back to his previous form .. we will probably let him go, as I doubt we'll have two high-priced SP contracts, to go along with Trout, Rendon, and (hopefully) Ohtani.

But in the end, that would be a "good" problem to have, as it'd mean that Syndergaard had a great year.

[Taylor]

8 hours ago, ScottSted said:

He also mentioned God in his Cy Young announcement interview so you know Arte is all over this.

Which God, though? The one true God or the one with all the red hats?

 

6 hours ago, Underdog Lefty said:

Based on Ray’s stats at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/, I would take a pass on him.  Instead, I would go after another former Cy Young award winner that no one in Angels’ land is even talking about, Corey Kubler.  Yea, I know, he’s older than Ray and may not be what he used to be after surgery, but geez if he is able to recover successfully enough to be 80% of what he once was…….

OMG, take a look at his historical statistics on Spotrac too, they are radically better than any other free agent starting pitcher. I would take him as my 3rd, 4th or even 5th starter in a heartbeat.  He’s a bulldog on the mound and the Angels have a boatload of young pitchers throughout their organization that could learn quite a bit from him on how to take command on the mound.  Go get him on a 1 or 2-yr deal Angels, he’s worth the risk!

Is this the first time we've had an MLB player post on AW?

[Warfarin]

*IF* Ray ends up being the choice, I think his first year will be around 20mil, which would take our budget to roughly 177mil.

Assuming at that point that we had roughly 8-10 mil left to spend, what would you do with that money?

I'd probably DFA Gosselin (saves ~1.5mil, which would give 9.5-11.5mil to spend), sign Knebel to a 2/16 deal (7/9), sign a backup catcher to a 1/2 type deal, then see if we can sign someone like Yates to a 2/9 type deal (3mil in the first year since he'll be out a few months, then 6 mil for the second year).

Lineup:  CF Marsh, RF Trout, DH Ohtani, 3B Rendon, 1B Walsh, LF Adell, C Stassi, SS Rengifo?, 2B Fletcher

Bench:  Backup C, Wade IF, Ward IF/OF, Upton OF

Rotation:  Ohtani, Ray, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria

Bullpen:  Knebel, Yates (when healthy), Loup, Mayers, Warren, Quijada, Wantz, Herget.

Over time, once Canning/Determs looks good to go again, they can take her Barria's spot, and Barria will pivot into the pen as a long reliever.

Obviously the glaring hole in this is SS.  They can potentially acquire one via trade, but I'm just not sure who is reasonably available to be acquired.  

[Stradling]

24 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

*IF* Ray ends up being the choice, I think his first year will be around 20mil, which would take our budget to roughly 177mil.

Assuming at that point that we had roughly 8-10 mil left to spend, what would you do with that money?

I'd probably DFA Gosselin (saves ~1.5mil, which would give 9.5-11.5mil to spend), sign Knebel to a 2/16 deal (7/9), sign a backup catcher to a 1/2 type deal, then see if we can sign someone like Yates to a 2/9 type deal (3mil in the first year since he'll be out a few months, then 6 mil for the second year).

Lineup:  CF Marsh, RF Trout, DH Ohtani, 3B Rendon, 1B Walsh, LF Adell, C Stassi, SS Rengifo?, 2B Fletcher

Bench:  Backup C, Wade IF, Ward IF/OF, Upton OF

Rotation:  Ohtani, Ray, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria

Bullpen:  Knebel, Yates (when healthy), Loup, Mayers, Warren, Quijada, Wantz, Herget.

Over time, once Canning/Determs looks good to go again, they can take her Barria's spot, and Barria will pivot into the pen as a long reliever.

Obviously the glaring hole in this is SS.  They can potentially acquire one via trade, but I'm just not sure who is reasonably available to be acquired.  

Do they have to DFA someone like Gosselin before a certain date?  I know they recently moved the deadline from December 1st to November 30th for what I think is offering a contract.  Would they have to release Gosselin before the 30th?