How much longer will it be before fans can be confident going into the season that we are a playoff team?

[mmc]

While I like a lot of the moves made this offseason, it really bothers me that we have the best player of this generation, and going into his 10th season, we have yet to win a playoff game with him and the consensus generally seems to be that we have a shot at winning the AL West in the weakened field, but it is still unlikely and basically involves a lot of luck going our way, vs being something we can actually have any confidence in.  It just feels like the last several offseasons have had the team entering each season with much more questions than answers, and a much high chance of us missing the playoffs rather than making it.  It's just absolutely disheartening to me that we seem unable to get out of this purgatory with the talent and financial resources we have.  I guess I'm just wondering when you guys think we will be able to get out of this funk and what it will take, because for me, I'm starting to lose any amount of faith we'll realistically be able to turn this thing around any time soon without going through a rebuild.  There is no reason any big market team with the league's best player shouldn't be a playoff lock, and yet here we are 9/10 seasons into his career...

[angelsnationtalk]

I think it's become clear that the Angels really are waiting for the farm to be ready and for certain contracts to expire. I'd imagine that by 2022 when Adell and Marsh are ready full-time that things will change, but then again, we've always said "next year" for the last 4 years. 

The one year deals over the last few seasons has completely puzzled me as well. Only Bundy out of the group including Harvey, Cahill, Teheran and others has actually worked. Quintana fits well for a #4-#5 type guy. But i'm lost with Cobb. High-risk guy (at low money) IMO. And to trade Jones for it? ummm.... 

Sure, the Angels paying big bucks to Pujols hasn't handcuffed them to sign Trout, Rendon and Upton, but it's where they spend their money that concerns me. It's the lack of financial attention to the rotation. Yes, homegrown is the best option. Just look at the Dodgers, Astros, Rays, etc.... But the Angels aren't in that position so they needed to do the other option.... Spend more. 

Yeah, what concerns me isn't the fact that they aren't spending money. It's the fact that Arte fires Eppler and has publicly acknowledged that they're looking deep to figure out what's wrong and has said  "they feel it everyday" with Trout not being in the playoffs yet it feels like nothing has changed. 

The Angels do have a better chance to make the playoffs this year, but I think a lot of us still see major concerns with pitching. I'd like to stay optimistic, but it's difficult. 

[T.G.]

It does feel like we're in a "funk."

But there are plenty of reasons why "any big market team with the league's best player shouldn't be a playoff lock."  Winning is hard.  Winning it all is even harder. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

We're all pissed we cant get Trout to the playoffs.

But I honestly think that making that the focus would hurt the team more than help it. I think we should focus on the next core, so that we dont try for another "pujols window"

Id rather build around adell and marsh (for example) with trout as the old vet, than to try for trout now... just because we arent a deep enough team now.

Thats just me

[stormngt]

3 minutes ago, T.G. said:

It does feel like we're in a "funk."

But there are plenty of reasons why "any big market team with the league's best player shouldn't be a playoff lock."  Winning is hard.  Winning it all is even harder. 

I agree that playoffs shouldn't be a lock.  However a big market team with the best player should be a lock to make the playoffs more often than once in 10 years.

[T.G.]

For many years prior to 2002, I didn't have any expectations about the postseason.  Things have obviously changed.  I understand the frustration. Since it's all out of my control, I try not to dwell on it.  I want to see Trout in the WS.  I also wanted to see Weaver in the WS.  We don't always get what we want. 

[T.G.]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I agree that playoffs shouldn't be a lock.  However a big market team with the best player should be a lock to make the playoffs more often than once in 10 years.

Having the "best player" in the sport of baseball is irrelevant.  Not so much in the NBA, but in MLB - it's true.  AND...it's a shame for sure.

Edited February 17, 2021 by T.G.

[T.G.]

6 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

We're all pissed we cant get Trout to the playoffs.

But I honestly think that making that the focus would hurt the team more than help it.

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

Having the "best player" in the sport of baseball is irrelevant.  Not so much in the NBA, but in MLB - it's true.  It's a shame for sure.

Sorry but I dont by it.  If you are a big market team and you have the best player than there is no excuse that you cant make the playoffs more than once a decade!

Being a big market team they should have found the players to put around him. 

There has been major screw ups to have that happen.

[floplag]

Are we a playoff team... well , yeah largely due to expanded playoffs but we should be in the top 8 and shouldnt have to play the Yankees in the WC round..  If it was still only 5, i wouldn't be so confident.
We should be much better, the pieces were there, some still are, we chose this fate.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, stormngt said:

Sorry but I dont by it.  If you are a big market team and you have the best player than there is no excuse that you cant make the playoffs more than once a decade!

Being a big market team they should have found the players to put around him. 

There has been major screw ups to have that happen.

They have been well documented on this board going back to around '09.

[T.G.]

Just now, stormngt said:

Being a big market team they should have found the players to put around him. 

There has been major screw ups to have that happen.

Obviously, that's easier said than done. 

Yes, the Angels have screwed up repeatedly. 

Again... I feel the frustration as much as anyone. 

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Are we a playoff team... well , yeah largely due to expanded playoffs but we should be in the top 8 and shouldnt have to play the Yankees in the WC round..  If it was still only 5, i wouldn't be so confident.
We should be much better, the pieces were there, some still are, we chose this fate.

Do we have expanded playoffs this year?

[mmc]

9 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

We're all pissed we cant get Trout to the playoffs.

But I honestly think that making that the focus would hurt the team more than help it. I think we should focus on the next core, so that we dont try for another "pujols window"

Id rather build around adell and marsh (for example) with trout as the old vet, than to try for trout now... just because we arent a deep enough team now.

Thats just me

Agree with this but the thing is I'm not as confident as everyone else that you can feasibly do this while also trying to compete in the short term.  This seems to have been the MO since Eppler was hired, but we have neither had a top 15 farm nor finished above .500 during that span.  I'm at a point where I'd much prefer we blow it up and rebuild than do what we've been doing the past few offseasons which hasn't gotten us nowhere (of course I'd prefer going all in on the Trout era to both options)

[T.G.]

At the end of the day, the failures fall at the feet of Arte.  I have no doubt he wants to win.  I have no doubt he's willing to spend money.  I just believe he's made horrible decisions in his pursuit of the postseason. 

[Second Base]

The root issue still lies with Jerry Dipoto. When you destroy a team's farm system, and bloat payroll, in order to put together a losing team, the are only two options that can be successful and they are both drastic. 

Option A: Tear it all down and start from scratch. You lose revenue, you lose the ability to extend current stars, and the ability to attract free agents without overpaying. It doesn't carry a 100% success rate, more like 75%, and you wouldn't be able to compete for five years minimum, until you've had time to trade away assets for prospects, draft and sign prospects, and develop prospects. If the Angels started this in 2016, they'd probably be competitive beginning in 2021/2022, but would probably be doing so without Trout, Ohtani and Rendon and it's hard to get excited about a team without those guys. 

Option B: Go big, blow the payroll out of the water in the short term, like 2017 and 2018, and spend the rest of your time hoarding prospects and using stop gaps around the fringes. This means being competitive in 2016-2019, but understanding your going to hit a rough patch in 2020 and 2021 as you allow contracts to expire and the prospects to develop, and return to contention in 2023 and beyond. 

Instead, Eppler tried to take a middle route, and that had asked Dipoto's mistakes the manifest and hurt the tank five years after he's gone. Yeah, Jerry was that bad of a GM. But back to Billy, he signed a bunch of one year stop gaps while he rebuilt the farm. Those resulted in five conservative losing seasons and ultimately his job, but did allow for Trout, Ohtani and Rendon. But the farm he built has an extreme amount of depth in AAA, and very high end talent in the infield in outfield, which sets up his successor quite nicely. 

But as for when the fans will have optimism, I think a lot has to go right. 

1. Trout and Rendon can't start declining for another three years or so, and even then, it needs to be a gradual decline. They're elite talent that have been built around and if they fall, the entire house collapses in on itself. 

2. Ohtani needs to be healthy and productive in some capacity. If it's doing both, that's the best case scenario. If it's just pitching, ok, we can live with that. If it's DH only, that's less than ideal, but ok. The only thing that can't happen is more injury, and more ineffectiveness. 

3. Two or more of Adell, Marsh and Adams need to develop into productive major leaguers. The Angels have their core, and now they need the young guns to come in and prop up the offense, and to hit their stride as Trout and Rendon begin the back side of their careers. Ideally, all three contribute and become the new core. That isn't required, but it would be nice.

4. There's really no way around this, but Canning, Detmers and Rodriguez need to pan out as pitchers. The Angels simply don't have upside on the mound, and since they aren't investing free agency dollars in it, they need to develop it internally. Canning needs to build off his progression from year one to year two and develop into that mid rotation starter they drafted him as. Detmers needs to be a fast mover and be ready to take over by the end of the year, and also develop into a #3/4 starter. Rodriguez needs to stay healthy and continue to develop, he too can likely get a mid rotation starter. They need to grow their pitching internally. 

----

If all that happens, the Angels will win and the fans will regain their lost optimism. 

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Second Base

[floplag]

14 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Do we have expanded playoffs this year?

i thought so, did i miss something?  Im sure someone will speak up if i did but i thought that was the plan. 

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Sorry but I dont by it.  If you are a big market team and you have the best player than there is no excuse that you cant make the playoffs more than once a decade!

Being a big market team they should have found the players to put around him. 

There has been major screw ups to have that happen.

You don’t have to buy it but it’s absolutely true. The best player in baseball comparatively speaking means Jack shit.  Especially when teams in baseball are built so different than any other sport.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

i thought so, did i miss something?  Im sure someone will speak up if i did but i thought that was the plan. 

As of now, no we don’t. 

[floplag]

Just now, Stradling said:

As of now, no we don’t. 

Really.. ok, my bad i had thought that was the plan.
So back to the question then... Are we a playoff team without it... IMO were on the edge.  
We should be, but a lot of teams have gotten better, i could easily see the Jay and White Sox as better than us, assuming the Yanks, Twins, and Astros as division winners.
It looks like another year of close, but possibly no cigar, or just squeaking in. 
 

[mmc]

I think that if we don't make the playoffs next year, the organization needs to think long and hard about what they are going to do next, as Trout will be 30, turning 31 in August of 2022.  They are going to have to decide if they want to go all in on Trout's likely final few years of being an elite player, or if they want to give up on the Trout era and rebuild.  I don't think they have a choice but to heavily commit to either direction.

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, mmc said:

I think that if we don't make the playoffs next year, the organization needs to think long and hard about what they are going to do next, as Trout will be 30, turning 31 in August of 2022.  They are going to have to decide if they want to go all in on Trout's likely final few years of being an elite player, or if they want to give up on the Trout era and rebuild.  I don't think they have a choice but to heavily commit to either direction.

I think that was two years ago, and they blew it.

[jsnpritchett]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

 

But as for when the fans will have optimism, I think a lot has to go right. 

1. Trout and Rendon can't start declining for another three years or so, and even then, it needs to be a gradual decline. They're elite talent that have been built around and if they fall, the entire house collapses in on itself. 

2. Ohtani needs to be healthy and productive in some capacity. If it's doing both, that's the best case scenario. If it's just pitching, ok, we can live with that. If it's DH only, that's less than ideal, but ok. The only thing that can't happen is more injury, and more ineffectiveness. 

3. Two or more of Adell, Marsh and Adams need to develop into productive major leaguers. The Angels have their core, and now they need the young guns to come in and prop up the offense, and to his their stride as Trout and Rendon begin the back side of their careers.

4. There's really no way around this, but Canning, Detmers and Rodriguez need to pan out as pitchers. The Angels simply don't have upside on the mound, and since they aren't investing free agency dollars in it, they need to develop it internally. Canning needs to build off his progression from year one to year two and develop into that mid rotation starter they drafted him as. Detmers needs to be a fast mover and be ready to take over by the end of the year, and also develop into a #3/4 starter. Rodriguez needs to stay healthy and continue to develop, he too can likely get a mid rotation starter. They need to grow their pitching internally. 

----

If all that happens, the Angels will win and the fans will regain their lost optimism. 

 

I pretty much agree with all 4 of your points above.  I'm sure I'll get tagged as a "Debbie Downer" again, but Rendon already KINDA worries me a little.  Last year was obviously a weird one all around with the late start/shortened season, so hard to draw too many conclusions.  But I'm wondering if the increased walk rate will continue--and if the slight decline in power will.  He's still a valuable player, but if his hitting profile continues the shift from last year, he's a little less "special" to me.  And gotta hope that his defensive skills hold up, too.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I pretty much agree with all 4 of your points above.  I'm sure I'll get tagged as a "Debbie Downer" again, but Rendon already KINDA worries me a little.  Last year was obviously a weird one all around with the late start/shortened season, so hard to draw too many conclusions.  But I'm wondering if the increased walk rate will continue--and if the slight decline in power will.  He's still a valuable player, but if his hitting profile continues the shift from last year, he's a little less "special" to me.  And gotta hope that his defensive skills hold up, too.

While I agree that we're going to see signs of Rendon declining at some point within the next few years, note that 2019 was the first year that he hit more than 25 HR. In his four previously full seasons he hit between 20 and 25. In other words, 2019 looked like the aberration.

That said, I do think he'll hit 25+ going forward. I do remember reading that he changed his launch angle. Not sure, though. Hopefully he won't do a Pujols.

[Jason]

59 minutes ago, T.G. said:

It does feel like we're in a "funk."

But there are plenty of reasons why "any big market team with the league's best player shouldn't be a playoff lock."  Winning is hard.  Winning it all is even harder. 

Obviously making and winning the WS is the hardest thing to do but quite a few teams seem to have no problem winning on a consistent basis 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Jason