Arenado to the Cardinals

[jsnpritchett]

56 minutes ago, mmc said:

5 prospects

 

 

 

I don't see what the big deal about giving him another opt-out would be.  He'd be an absolute idiot to opt out of that contract, regardless of how big of a year he has this year/next year.  There's no way anyone would give a 31/32-year old a better, longer-term contract than he already has.

[Second Base]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

how to take on a bad contract and give up prospects to do so?  Yeah.  They sure showed us.  

Exactly. It's a gamble for St. Louis, but a calculated one. We'll see. It could be a magnificent failure or a moderate success. There really doesn't seem to be an avenue where this is wildly successful for the Cardinals.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Second Base

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, rafibomb said:

I don’t know if the Rockies are officially sellers or are just being dumb.

Seriously, once again no top prospects included in the deal. WTF?

That would be like us including Yan and his brothers in little league in the DR. 

[mmc]

 

[Erstad Grit]

I hope we don't trade for John gray now

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Seriously, once again no top prospects included in the deal. WTF?

That would be like us including Yan and his brothers in little league in the DR. 

maybe we could've sweetened the deal by offering baldoquin.

[gotbeer]

BTW.  What's left on Arenado's contract.

21:  $35 million, 22:  $35 million, 23:  $35 million, 24:  $35 million,   25:  $32 million, 26:  $27 million

Sounds like Opt out after 21 and 22.  So that's 6 years/$199 million.  minus the $50 million Colorado is paying.  That's 6 years/$149 million, so $24.8 million a season.

[Blarg]

8 minutes ago, Tank said:

maybe we could've sweetened the deal by offering baldoquin.

Unfortunately the Angels released Baldoquin just a little too soon.

[failos]

3 hours ago, rafibomb said:

I don’t know if the Rockies are officially sellers or are just being dumb.

They’re fools. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are riots in Denver right now.

[aznhockeyguy]

Very very risky for the Cardinals.  Arenado's career home/road splits scare me. 

[angelsnationtalk]

If it ends up like this then Angels need to call them NOW

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, rafibomb said:

I don’t know if the Rockies are officially sellers or are just being dumb.

Neither.  

This is them acknowledging how badly they screwed up and choosing to mitigate their losses.  In Angels terms, this "trade" is essentially as if they had traded AP prior to the 2016 season to get out from under the bulk of that contract.

Beyond the money, Arenado has been publicly calling out the team and bitching about being disrespected.  They basically got out from under an expensive cancer.  Even better, this likely allows them to try again.  Even after the 50 mil they are throwing in, their savings per year averages out to the 24 mil per the Angels have been paying AP for tax reasons.  How much better off would the Angels have been without AP on the books the last 5 years and going into this season?  Would they have been able to add pitching???

I'm guessing he will give the Cards three good years at least but that's still a lot of money for a guy with questionable splits at APs AAV.

[Inside Pitch]

9 hours ago, failos said:

They’re fools. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are riots in Denver right now.

Are Rockies fans as blind as Angels fans can be?   

Arenado has put up a 120 OPS+ in his first two years of his current deal.  AP had put up a 126 OPS+ after his first four years in Anaheim. Arenado is younger than AP but he's basically just as expensive as AP was, and he's been a sub .800 OPS player away from Coors.  Maybe now they can keep Story who is younger or they can add players to Marquez who is likely a more important component to their future success.

I get the reaction, on it's face it's dumb, but if they really did have a growing problem on their hands and if all it costs was 50 mil to get out from under 200 mil, they may see it as having been worth it.

Sucks for their fans.

[failos]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Are Rockies fans as blind as Angels fans can be?   

Arenado has put up a 120 OPS+ in his first two years of his current deal.  AP had put up a 126 OPS+ after his first four years in Anaheim. Arenado is younger than AP but he's basically just as expensive as AP was, and he's been a sub .800 OPS player away from Coors.  Maybe now they can keep Story who is younger or they can add players to Marquez who is likely a more important component to their future success.

I get the reaction, on it's face it's dumb, but if they really did have a growing problem on their hands and if all it costs was 50 mil to get out from under 200 mil, they may see it as having been worth it.

Sucks for their fans.

His stats are interesting/crazy, especially his OPS+...that’s a real eye opener for sure, but his talent is undeniable. I wouldn’t consider his 2020 stats due to the shortened season and his outspoken unhappiness with the Rockies.

[Angelsjunky]

2020 aside, Arenado has been one of the most consistent stars in baseball: five years in a row of 37-42 HR, wRC+ around 130, 5-6 WAR. Even if he declines, he isn't the worst investment, especially considering the cash. Pujols notwithstanding, players of Arenado's caliber rarely collapse quickly. I could see a few years in the .270+, 30+ HR, 4-5 range, and then a few years in the .250+, 25 HR, 3 WAR range.

[Inside Pitch]

28 minutes ago, failos said:

His stats are interesting/crazy, especially his OPS+...that’s a real eye opener for sure, but his talent is undeniable. I wouldn’t consider his 2020 stats due to the shortened season and his outspoken unhappiness with the Rockies.

He's got a glove for days too so, his decline won't be as painful as AP's....  Like I said, I get the reaction but, they were basically in a no win situation with him so getting out from under it while painful may be their quickest way to getting better eventually.  

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He's got a glove for days too so, his decline won't be as painful as AP's....  Like I said, I get the reaction but, they were basically in a no win situation with him so getting out from under it while painful may be their quickest way to getting better eventually.  

Yes, true. I haven't investigated the prospects, but surely there's a potential gem or two?

[mmc]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Are Rockies fans as blind as Angels fans can be?   

Arenado has put up a 120 OPS+ in his first two years of his current deal.  AP had put up a 126 OPS+ after his first four years in Anaheim. Arenado is younger than AP but he's basically just as expensive as AP was, and he's been a sub .800 OPS player away from Coors.  Maybe now they can keep Story who is younger or they can add players to Marquez who is likely a more important component to their future success.

I get the reaction, on it's face it's dumb, but if they really did have a growing problem on their hands and if all it costs was 50 mil to get out from under 200 mil, they may see it as having been worth it.

Sucks for their fans.

Mostly agree with this post, but I do think you aren’t giving enough credit to the fact that Arenado is also an elite defender and was arguably the best in baseball last year while playing through an injury.  It makes it a bit hard for me to compare him to AP

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, true. I haven't investigated the prospects, but surely there's a potential gem or two?

Woodford is probably the most known guy former 1st rounder but he's never really shown all that much.  The only guy they can really dream on is Jhon Torres.  The rest are pretty much maxed out guys at the wrong end of the age spectrum for prospects. 

They seemingly just wanted him gone.

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, mmc said:

Mostly agree with this post, but I do think you aren’t giving enough credit to the fact that Arenado is also an elite defender and was arguably the best in baseball last year while playing through an injury.  It makes it a bit hard for me to compare him to AP

No, I am I said as much in a following post..  I just don't believe the move is really that awful, providing they actually do something with it moving forward.

The way I see it, they had a guy who despite how good he is wasn't going to help them win.  His salary was such that few teams would be willing to trade for him and the longer they keep him, the fewer the "good" years they had him for so, it would only have driven his value down to others.   

Mostly, was trying to compare the situations -- even then, they aren't equitable due to the differences in ages, but it's not as bad for the Rocks as people may think.   Really, it depends on what they do next...

[Taylor]

14 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

They got angel rondon. We had angel rondons.

How many rondons is Angel Rondon worth? 

[Taylor]

10 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

If it ends up like this then Angels need to call them NOW

I don't understand why a player like Nolan Arenado has negative value.

[failos]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

I don't understand why a player like Nolan Arenado has negative value.

Monies I’m guessing

[totdprods]

Good trade for both teams, in my opinion.

Rocks free up money and weren’t going anywhere. They didn’t get much back, but they weren’t going to get a haul anyways with Arenado’s contract, his leverage, and his splits. 

He probably won’t be as good as he was in Colorado, but he’ll probably be a steady .800+ OPS guy with good defense and hold down the fort. Kind of like the Goldschmidt deal. He struggled a bit initially then leveled out into a good player, even if not what he once was. A very Cardinals move.

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I don't understand why a player like Nolan Arenado has negative value.

The contract.  Rendon is also viewed to have negative trade value.  

8 minutes ago, failos said:

Monies I’m guessing

Bingo