Payroll and Roster Consideration for the Next Three Seasons. (2021-2023)

[Docwaukee]

I think it's fair to be hyper-focused on the 2021 roster and what payroll might be for the upcoming season, but I also think it's important to consider what current moves have on future impact for at least the next three years as far as roster construction, potential free agents, potential prospects, and committed money or arb increases etc.  

Considering downstream impact and need is vitally important so lets do that year by year and see whether it might alter people's perception currently.  

2021
Current payroll:  150m
Anticipated payroll: 180m (estimate based on assumption that payroll won't go down but probably won't go up).  
Money to spend:  30m 
Current needs:  Starting pitching x2, MIF (Check), Bullpen x3, RF, C
FA after the season:  SP x2, SS
Potential farm contributors:  OF, SP, Bullpen, 2b

2022
Current committed money: 102m + 30m in arb estimates + 7.5m in additional roster = 140m
Anticipated payroll:  190m  (going to bump this up as a guess).  
Money to spend:  50m
Likely needs:  SP, SS, Bullpen
FA after the season: C, LF
Potential farm contributors:  OF, SP, Bullpen

2023
Current committed money: 76m + arb of 50m (guess) + 7.5m = about 130m
Anticipated payroll:  200m
Money to spend: 70m
Likely needs:  C, MOTO Bat 
FA after the season:  Bullpen, Ohtani
Potential farm contributors:  ???

so throw out some hypothetical scenarios 

  

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Ideally, you would hope that Adell lives up to the hype or atleast becames an above-average Rf, same with Marsh, Both Detmers and Rodriguez reach the MLB and are atleast solid 3s,Lasly the system continues to devlop.

This fills in most of the spots, and allows us to improve other needs. 

[wopphil]

Bauer back-loaded. Then one of Richards/Happ/Quintana. Then a legit pen arm. Then a Goodwin type for the outfield, or trade Adell for an established but cost controlled outfielder.

Financially this probably works.  

[Pancake Bear]

Isn't Iglesias under contract through 2022?

[Pancake Bear]

28 minutes ago, wopphil said:

trade Adell for an established but cost controlled outfielder.

That makes zero sense. Why would we trade Adell for another outfielder? If that's what we want, keep him. 

If you're going to trade Adell, it only makes sense to do so for a starting pitcher with at least front line upside. 

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Isn't Iglesias under contract through 2022?

No

[Lou]

31 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Bauer back-loaded

He doesn't seem the type to back-load a contract.

[Pancake Bear]

20 minutes ago, Lou said:

He doesn't seem the type to back-load a contract.

How would you backload a one year deal? /s

[Lou]

17 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

How would you backload a one year deal? /s

Only pay him in October.

[Warfarin]

@Dochalo Nice thread.

My thoughts:

1.  Sign Bauer (6/150) - 25mil/yr

2.  Trade Adell+ in a deal to the Braves (or Dodgers) to secure a catcher (Langeliers if the Braves, Ruiz if the Dodgers) and perhaps a mid-rotation SP

The rest - relievers, corner OF, etc - can be cobbled together fairly easily.

I would look to re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney next offseason, and we'd roll forward with Bauer, Bundy/Heaney, "SP3" via trade, Canning, and one of Detmers/Rodriguez once they are ready.  We'd have our catcher of the future for many years in Ruiz/Langeliers.  We obviously have Trout and Rendon locked up for awhile.  Fletcher would be the mainstay at 2B.  Marsh should be ready soon.  And perhaps when Upton's contract is up, Adams will be ready.

Basically - doing the above should enable us to have a good mix of expensive, nucleus-type players (Trout, Rendon, Bauer) who will be complemented by good, "cheap" players (Marsh, Detmers, Ruiz/Langeliers, etc).

[Angelsjunky]

One useful angle would be to look at who already exists within the org to fill the "likely needs." Meaning, who would possible free agents and/or trades be replacing?

2021

SP x2: Barria, Sandoval

Bullpen x3: DFAed guys (Middleton, Robles, Anderson, Andriese, Milner)

RF: Ward/Adell

C Bemboom

 

2022

SP: Bundy, Heaney

SS: Iglesias

 

2023

LF: Upton

C Stassi

 

So any signings should, in theory, be better than those guys. Of course SP could be for depth. As it stands, our rotation is Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Sandoval, and Ohtani. Beyond those six, there isn't much in terms of depth: Peters, Suarez, Pena, possibly Detmers and Rodriguez in the second half. So acquiring an SP or two isn't only about improving upon Barria and Sandoval, it is also about deepening the pool. 

For 2021, my guess is that the Angels want one SP that actually improves the rotation, and one that deepens it. They could also get two improvements and move Barria and Sandoval to the bullpen and as depth. For the OF, they want someone to fill-in until Adell, Marsh and Adams are ready - not a long-term piece.  Long-term, OF is set. The rotation beyond 2021 depends upon how quickly Detmers and Rodriguez are ready; if they look good, they won't need to replace both Bundy and Heaney, maybe only one (at most - depends upon who they acquire this offseason).

They're probably not worrying about SS or C, beyond finding someone to platoon with Stassi. Maybe they still hope that Rengifo will turn into a starter, or that Jackson will move quickly. But it is unlikely that he'll be ready until 2023 at the earliest, with Vera and Paris a year or so behind, so this time next year we might be looking for another SS.

 

[eligrba]

16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think it's fair to be hyper-focused on the 2021 roster and what payroll might be for the upcoming season, but I also think it's important to consider what current moves have on future impact for at least the next three years as far as roster construction, potential free agents, potential prospects, and committed money or arb increases etc.  

Considering downstream impact and need is vitally important so lets do that year by year and see whether it might alter people's perception currently.  

2021
Current payroll:  150m
Anticipated payroll: 180m (estimate based on assumption that payroll won't go down but probably won't go up).  
Money to spend:  30m 
Current needs:  Starting pitching x2, MIF (Check), Bullpen x3, RF, C
FA after the season:  SP x2, SS
Potential farm contributors:  OF, SP, Bullpen, 2b

2022
Current committed money: 102m + 30m in arb estimates + 7.5m in additional roster = 140m
Anticipated payroll:  190m  (going to bump this up as a guess).  
Money to spend:  50m
Likely needs:  SP, SS, Bullpen
FA after the season: C, LF
Potential farm contributors:  OF, SP, Bullpen

2023
Current committed money: 76m + arb of 50m (guess) + 7.5m = about 130m
Anticipated payroll:  200m
Money to spend: 70m
Likely needs:  C, MOTO Bat 
FA after the season:  Bullpen, Ohtani
Potential farm contributors:  ???

so throw out some hypothetical scenarios 

  

 

What would be the best stategy? Build a budget that creates a predictable decline in yearly commitments allowing for better cash flow at different times or build a budget that has a consistent yearly commitment to create a predictable and consistent amount of cas flow?

[Angels 1961]

On 12/5/2020 at 5:31 PM, Pancake Bear said:

Isn't Iglesias under contract through 2022?

His brother is Julio with RCA records