Post your election predictions

[mmc]

People are constantly having debates in the other threads over who is going to win but in this thread I want to actually post our election predictions, so we can all laugh at each other on Election Day.  You can easily make yours at either https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=USA_2020_presidential or 270toWin.com .  

This is mine (not bothering to predict the margins of victory)

[Jason]

I think your map may be fairly accurate. I honestly think it could go either way

[gotbeer]

[Adam]

I think either way the results will be contested. I’m 51/49 Trump wins

[Kevin]

I’m just hoping for gridlock.

[Redondo]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

I think either way the results will be contested. I’m 51/49 Trump wins

This

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

If Trump had handled COVID 19 like a competent adult and acted like a leader he'd be a lock.  If Biden weren't a terrible candidate then he'd be a lock.  As it stands we have two terrible candidates, we've yet to hit political rock bottom and won't for a while.  I think Biden wins but 2016 showed what voters and particularly where this election will come down to.  Like Kevin I just hope neither side has complete control because that's never good.  Regardless of who wins my prediction is:

[AngelsFaninGA]

Trump. I think the polls are underestimating him. Florida is a lock to vote red IMO

[Taylor]

Even if Trump wins Florida, he has to win a bunch of states that Biden is projected to win easily.

Yeah yeah, 2016. But in the 2018 midterms, the polls actually underestimated the Democrats.

[Adam]

I think Trump wins FL, PA and OH and 2 of MI, MN and WI and you know the polls are flawed when they show GA and TX as anything but an R lock.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bracing myself for the bump

[Taylor]

45 minutes ago, Adam said:

I think Trump wins FL, PA and OH and 2 of MI, MN and WI and you know the polls are flawed when they show GA and TX as anything but an R lock.

I'll give Florida and Ohio to Trump. Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all heavily predicted for Biden (with larger margins than Hillary had in 2016).

Of course, the polls could be fundamentally wrong. If Trump ends up winning outright I'll admit that there's something seriously wrong with the polls.

[Adam]

Just now, Spin Rate said:

I'll give Florida and Ohio to Trump. Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all heavily predicted for Biden (with larger margins than Hillary had in 2016).

Of course, the polls could be fundamentally wrong. If Trump ends up winning outright I'll admit that there's something seriously wrong with the polls.

I can't really quantify anything. The polls show FL as neck and neck or tilted one way or the other yet Trump pulls all his ads from there. He only does that if he's got it locked up, right? I dunno. I can't make sense of any of it. 

[Adam]

No outcome would surprise me

[Taylor]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

I can't really quantify anything. The polls show FL as neck and neck or tilted one way or the other yet Trump pulls all his ads from there. He only does that if he's got it locked up, right? I dunno. I can't make sense of any of it. 

Trump's campaign ran out of money a month ago. He's having to pull out of Florida and defend states like Georgia, Texas, and Iowa.

Anyway, here's my conservative prediction:

 

 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

[Taylor]

By the way, something interesting to note is that if Trump loses Florida OR Pennsylvania, he has less than 1 percent chance of winning the election, based on voting trends in similar states. Biden could lose both and still has like a 40% chance of winning. The EC is wild.

[Adam]

2 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

Trump's campaign ran out of money a month ago. He's having to pull out of Florida and defend states like Georgia, Texas, and Iowa.

Anyway, here's my conservative prediction:

 

 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Gun to my head if I had to pick it exactly correct. 

 

[Adam]

Just now, Adam said:

Gun to my head if I had to pick it exactly correct. 

 

Biden takes Arkansas!!! haha JK That was an error

[Taylor]

Hillary was also favored in these states, but the voting margins were much smaller. 538 has adjusted how they calculate their odds since 2016, allowing for a larger margin of error.

 

[Adam]

Yeah I don't believe those polls 

[Taylor]

Just now, Adam said:

Yeah I don't believe those polls 

538 takes an average of every single poll that exists, including the right-wing outliers like Trafalgar. They then adjust the polling averages with factors like demographics, swing voters, etc. to make the most accurate predictions possible. The dudes are nerds. I tried listening to one of their podcasts, and they sound like a bunch of accountants talking about calculators. 

[AngelsFaninGA]

21 minutes ago, Adam said:

I can't really quantify anything. The polls show FL as neck and neck or tilted one way or the other yet Trump pulls all his ads from there. He only does that if he's got it locked up, right? I dunno. I can't make sense of any of it. 

I live in FL in a county that has traditionally gone blue and the Trump paraphernalia outnumbers Biden's at least 50 to 1. Purely anecdotal I know but Biden is not exactly the kind of candidate that sparks enthusiasm. 

[Adam]

6 minutes ago, calscuf said:

I love how we can’t believe polls because people are ashamed to admit they’re voting for Trump.

Yeah seriously

[Adam]

7 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

538 takes an average of every single poll that exists, including the right-wing outliers like Trafalgar. They then adjust the polling averages with factors like demographics, swing voters, etc. to make the most accurate predictions possible. The dudes are nerds. I tried listening to one of their podcasts, and they sound like a bunch of accountants talking about calculators. 

I get it. I'm banking on fear of being outed as a trumper being prevalent in the data and lots of dishonesty.

[Taylor]

54 minutes ago, Adam said:

I get it. I'm banking on fear of being outed as a trumper being prevalent in the data and lots of dishonesty.

There have been several articles written about the "shy Trump voters" theory. This is a good one: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

Quote

There’s this theory that won’t die. It goes something like this: Some unknown segment of President Trump’s support is too “shy” to admit they back him. Usually offered as an explanation for why Trump’s poll numbers weren’t better in 2016 or why they’re not better now, the idea hinges on Trump being such a controversial candidate that it’s not socially desirable to say you support him, and as such, there is a lot of hidden Trump support not captured by the polls.

Only, there’s scant evidence of this. In fact, there’s some evidence against the “shy” Trump theory.

If “shy” Trump voters were a thing, for example, you might expect a difference in how respondents reply to surveys conducted via telephone versus those anonymously submitted online — the idea being that social desirability bias is less likely to kick in when a respondent is dealing with a faceless computer instead of a real person. However, as Morning Consult’s new 2,400-respondent study shows, Trump performed about the same against Joe Biden, regardless of whether the pollster interviewed respondents by phone or online.

 

[failos]

3 hours ago, Spin Rate said:

Trump's campaign ran out of money a month ago. He's having to pull out of Florida and defend states like Georgia, Texas, and Iowa.

Anyway, here's my conservative prediction:

 

 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

This is definitely (more than) possible. Hopefully its doesn't come to that though...