Post your election predictions

[failos]

6 hours ago, gotbeer said:

I'M SO READY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN

[mmc]

I'll probably be posting an updated prediction map either the night before or the morning of the election.

[Adam]

2 hours ago, Spin Rate said:

There have been several articles written about the "shy Trump voters" theory. This is a good one: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

 

I disagree with him. I think there are a lot of people who spend a significant amount of time online that fear  disclosing anywhere that they support Trump. 

We'll see. 

Biden is not going to beat Trump by the margins suggested in MI (8 points), PA (5 points), WI (8.4 points) or AZ (3.5 points). 

[mmc]

I'm surprised to see someone people having Trump as winning Minnesota.  As much as I think polls are skewed to the left, I just can't see that happening.

[Taylor]

13 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

I'm surprised to see someone people having Trump as winning Minnesota.  As much as I think polls are skewed to the left, I just can't see that happening.

Minnesota has been a blue state for decades. Hillary won by 1 percent in 2016, but the 2018 midterms revealed another strong blue showing. Minnesota is easily Biden's to lose.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Adam said:

I disagree with him. I think there are a lot of people who spend a significant amount of time online that fear  disclosing anywhere that they support Trump. 

We'll see. 

Biden is not going to beat Trump by the margins suggested in MI (8 points), PA (5 points), WI (8.4 points) or AZ (3.5 points). 

I am completely unfamiliar with this phenomenon as a follower of this board.

[Taylor]

19 minutes ago, Adam said:

I disagree with him. I think there are a lot of people who spend a significant amount of time online that fear  disclosing anywhere that they support Trump. 

Based on what? The guy who wrote the article studies elections for a living. You're Adam.

[Adam]

Just now, Spin Rate said:

Based on what? The guy who wrote the article studies elections for a living. You're Adam.

Oh completely anecdotal 

[Adam]

My hypothesis can be disproven on Tuesday

[Rico]

The thing about 2020 polls vs 2016 polls are that there are far less undecided this election. So the polls should be far more accurate.

[Taylor]

28 minutes ago, Adam said:

Oh completely anecdotal 

Sounds legit.

[Taylor]

I found MAGA's map.

 

[Lhalo]

6 hours ago, Adam said:

I think Trump wins FL, PA and OH and 2 of MI, MN and WI and you know the polls are flawed when they show GA and TX as anything but an R lock.

This is pretty much what I think will happen.

[mmc]

I wonder why only 3 people have actually made maps

[St1ck]

3 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

I wonder why only 3 people have actually made maps

Here you go. I would mute it though the music is annoying. 

 

[Taylor]

15 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

I wonder why only 3 people have actually made maps

You and I are the nerdiest ones here. And MAGA, but he's a shy Trump voter so I shared his map for him.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Spin Rate

[Don]

21 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

I wonder why only 3 people have actually made maps

I make maps for a living... no need to waste my free time on it.

[gotbeer]

6 hours ago, Adam said:

I get it. I'm banking on fear of being outed as a trumper being prevalent in the data and lots of dishonesty.

You should read the USC articles I posted.  As being the only one's that called 2016, their methodology for election poling is pretty fascinating.  And still very accurate.

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, gotbeer said:

You should read the USC articles I posted.  As being the only one's that called 2016, their methodology for election poling is pretty fascinating.  And still very accurate.

Yeah, but Adam has a feeling that all the polls are wrong.

[gotbeer]

4 minutes ago, Spin Rate said:

Yeah, but Adam has a feeling that all the polls are wrong.

They were in 2016.  Except for them.

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

They were in 2016.  Except for them.

They were actually 5 points off in 2016. They predicted Trump would win the popular vote by 3 points, but he lost by 2 points. So they worked to make 2020's version even more accurate. So I wouldn't be surprised if they're spot-on this time around.

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, mymerlincat said:

I wonder why only 3 people have actually made maps

Because you actually have to click on a link and make a map

[tennischmp]

4 hours ago, Adam said:

I disagree with him. I think there are a lot of people who spend a significant amount of time online that fear  disclosing anywhere that they support Trump. 

We'll see. 

Biden is not going to beat Trump by the margins suggested in MI (8 points), PA (5 points), WI (8.4 points) or AZ (3.5 points). 

You don't need polls, just look at 2016, Trump won a bunch of states by narrow margins(Michigan by 13k, Wisconsin by 27k, Pennsylvania by 44k and Florida by 114k, just to name a few) against a horrible candidate and without a 4 year track record of being president. 

Also it's not like Trump got shattering number of votes compared to previous Republican candidates. As long as the Democrats turn out like they did for Obama(maybe not necessarily to vote for Biden but against Trump), the margins are easily achievable. And the turnout is looking more like 2008-2012 rather than 2016 so far.

[Adam]

1 hour ago, Spin Rate said:

Yeah, but Adam has a feeling that all the polls are wrong.

It will be interesting if they’re right and Biden wins in terms of what the GOP does moving forward. I feel like for the party to stay relevant/increase party affiliation they’re going to need to continue down the Trumpian path. I don’t think the Ted Cruzes and Mitt Romneys are going to be appealing to enough people. They’re gonna need to get gnar and younger 

[St1ck]

1 minute ago, Adam said:

It will be interesting if they’re right and Biden wins in terms of what the GOP does moving forward. I feel like for the party to stay relevant/increase party affiliation they’re going to need to continue down the Trumpian path. I don’t think the Ted Cruzes and Mitt Romneys are going to be appealing to enough people. They’re gonna need to get gnar and younger 

I found their next candidate if that happens.