SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

[gotbeer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

Golfing early Saturday then gonna take the family for a drive. Gonna do Hollywood, Beverly Hills, etc. Hopefully traffic is chill. It seems to be picking up pretty substantially.

Traffic is getting heavier, but not like pre Rona days.  Not sure what you are going to see in Beverly Hills, everything is closed and boarded up.  Plus they are doing major construction there since traffic is light.  

[St1ck]

White House Report Shows Rates Spiking In Heartland

http://a.msn.com/01/en-us/BB13Wi0a?ocid=se2

Coronavirus infection rates are spiking to new highs in several metropolitan areas and smaller communities across the country, according to undisclosed data the White House's pandemic task force is using to track rates of infection, which was obtained by NBC News.

The data contained in a May 7 coronavirus task force report are at odds with President Donald Trump's Monday declaration that "all throughout the country, the numbers are coming down rapidly."

The top 10 areas saw surges of 72.4 percent or greater over a seven-day period compared to the prior week, according to a set of tables produced for the task force by its Data and Analytics unit. They include Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and — atop the list with a 650 percent increase — Central City, Kentucky.

[Adam]

37 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Traffic is getting heavier, but not like pre Rona days.  Not sure what you are going to see in Beverly Hills, everything is closed and boarded up.  Plus they are doing major construction there since traffic is light.  

Ethan wants to see some BH mansions

[St1ck]

4 minutes ago, Adam said:

Ethan wants to see some BH mansions

You can see some in San Juan Capistrano, and San Clemente. 

 

 

 

[Adam]

But they don't shoot any hip hop videos in san clemente or San juan

[Adam]

Hey smart guys, which includes ummmm  well just uhh @fishbulb I suppose

Question. So this article says that rona been in Ohio since January. 

https://www.wlwt.com/article/antibody-testing-reveals-covid-19-has-been-in-ohio-since-january-health-officials-say/32438290?fbclid=IwAR17d3xokEncVfQv3w_QDeR5V3sfKdPBK-wrWJSzILT_3Fdd27VYv74Jjbs

We've seen others in NY and CA that say it was likely December. 

The R0 is supposed to be between 1.8 and 2.5 or something. Let's round to 2.  

No distancing measures until mid-March. 

A R0 of 2 would mean that infections approximately double each day. Right?

In just 29 days it would be a half billion infections. Clearly that doesn't make sense, does it? 

So which variable is wrong or what am I missing?

I'll head over to the meat locker and take your answer off the air. 

[Adam]

BTW - legitimate questions. I'm curious as to what the explanation is because none of the math in any of this stuff makes any sense

[Adam]

Just now, calscuf said:

The R0 is an average. Obviously someone in NYC will infect more people living in a cabin in the woods.  But yes, it's an interesting point. 

For sure. I would think air travel from LA and NY for 3 months w/o measures would put this thing everywhere if the R0 were at all accurate. Seems as though vast antibody testing would put the infection rate into 9 figures. But then I read that 5000+ MLB employees were tested and their infection rate was less than 1%.

So many anomalies. 

[St1ck]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

For sure. I would think air travel from LA and NY for 3 months w/o measures would put this thing everywhere if the R0 were at all accurate. Seems as though vast antibody testing would put the infection rate into 9 figures. But then I read that 5000+ MLB employees were tested and their infection rate was less than 1%.

So many anomalies. 

Is it just a matter of time, Corona?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

I've wondered how the virus was in the US back in December, the first CA deaths they've confirmed were mid-February and we somehow missed a massive outbreak or one that overwhelmed the healthcare system before going into lockdown.  I know the Stanford and USC research groups did random testing in CA and said the number of confirmed cases could be up to 85x higher than expected.  Then in NY they did testing I believe at supermarkets and up to 20% of people in NYC had the antibodies while it was in the high teens in some of the other areas. 

[Amazing Larry]

Well here's a breath of fresh air. It's time to OPEN UP.

 

[Adam]

7 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I've wondered how the virus was in the US back in December, the first CA deaths they've confirmed were mid-February and we somehow missed a massive outbreak or one that overwhelmed the healthcare system before going into lockdown.  I know the Stanford and USC research groups did random testing in CA and said the number of confirmed cases could be up to 85x higher than expected.  Then in NY they did testing I believe at supermarkets and up to 20% of people in NYC had the antibodies while it was in the high teens in some of the other areas. 

None of it makes sense

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

I've wondered how the virus was in the US back in December, the first CA deaths they've confirmed were mid-February and we somehow missed a massive outbreak or one that overwhelmed the healthcare system before going into lockdown.  I know the Stanford and USC research groups did random testing in CA and said the number of confirmed cases could be up to 85x higher than expected.  Then in NY they did testing I believe at supermarkets and up to 20% of people in NYC had the antibodies while it was in the high teens in some of the other areas. 

What is fact is that there was (and still is) very little known about the virus. It is possible that it's not near as deadly as they first thought and predicted. Maybe our social distancing worked but there is no way to say at this point. I'm of the opinion that we take our chances with the virus in the hope we don't get that surge that overwhelms the health care system but to this point we really haven't come close to that. Remember all the talk about ventilators? Haven't heard that word in a while. 

[Amazing Larry]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

What is fact is that there was (and still is) very little known about the virus. It is possible that it's not near as deadly as they first thought and predicted. Maybe our social distancing worked but there is no way to say at this point. I'm of the opinion that we take our chances with the virus in the hope we don't get that surge that overwhelms the health care system but to this point we really haven't come close to that. Remember all the talk about ventilators? Haven't heard that word in a while. 

That's because Cuomo quit crying about a nonexistent shortage.

[Adam]

My wife's vice principal just said in their zoom meeting "New information suggests that orientals are at the highest risk of young people. Fortunately less than 1% of our district's student body is oriental." 

[Adam]

I can get used to working from home

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Well here's a breath of fresh air. It's time to OPEN UP.

 

He's right 

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

Just now, Adam said:

I can get used to working from home

I can as well. I hated it at first, but I've set myself pretty nicely at home and I get to be with my family and dog all day long. 

Being that i'm in tech that counts on mass transit to get into the city, I doubt I will step foot in an office again for work unless it's for a team meeting here and there in which I would drive into the city.

[Amazing Larry]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

I can as well. I hated it at first, but I've set myself pretty nicely at home and I get to be with my family and dog all day long. 

Being that i'm in tech that counts on mass transit to get into the city, I doubt I will step foot in an office again for work unless it's for a team meeting here and there in which I would drive into the city.

Coincidentally your company has been a big factor in allowing my company to work remotely.

[well_red]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Hey smart guys, which includes ummmm  well just uhh @fishbulb I suppose

Question. So this article says that rona been in Ohio since January. 

https://www.wlwt.com/article/antibody-testing-reveals-covid-19-has-been-in-ohio-since-january-health-officials-say/32438290?fbclid=IwAR17d3xokEncVfQv3w_QDeR5V3sfKdPBK-wrWJSzILT_3Fdd27VYv74Jjbs

We've seen others in NY and CA that say it was likely December. 

The R0 is supposed to be between 1.8 and 2.5 or something. Let's round to 2.  

No distancing measures until mid-March. 

A R0 of 2 would mean that infections approximately double each day. Right?

In just 29 days it would be a half billion infections. Clearly that doesn't make sense, does it? 

So which variable is wrong or what am I missing?

I'll head over to the meat locker and take your answer off the air. 

R0 of 2 does mean on average, each infected person will infect 2 more.  What you are missing is the timing.  It takes several days for the virus to build up in the body to the point where you are infectious, then several days to transmit to these other people etc.  It doesn't double every day, I think in California the doubling rate was around 4 days. 

[Adam]

2 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Coincidentally your company has been a big factor in allowing my company to work remotely.

How is Grinder helping your company work remotely?

[Chuck]

My WFH setup is on my bar, so I can sit or stand for work throughout the day.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Just now, Jason said:

What is fact is that there was (and still is) very little known about the virus. It is possible that it's not near as deadly as they first thought and predicted.

This is pretty much what I was getting at.  I understand that the world knew so little about the virus which was absolutely scary so we had to play it smart but the mortality rate seems to be lower than the early predictions.  At two different points those hospitalized were reviewed and in both cases 90% and 89% respectively had underlying issues.  No one wants anyone to die but every choice we make has a cost.  Someone else posted the economic impact of pushing people into severe poverty which will result in deaths then there's been other articles that have estimated up to 100,000 Americans could end up committing suicide.  Hopefully both of those estimates are high but the longer this goes on and the slower we are to try to get to a new normal the worse the impact gets. 

[St1ck]

Since the Rand Paul doesn't show Fauci's response, here is the full video.