SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

[St1ck]

5 minutes ago, Adam said:

How is Grinder helping your company work remotely?

Running down the length of my thigh, Corona

[Amazing Larry]

Just now, st1ckboy said:

Since the Rand Paul doesn't show Fauci's response, here is the full video.

Rand Paul's statement: facts and stats

Fauci's response: Feelz and "what about the childrenz!"

Pathetic.

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

This is pretty much what I was getting at.  I understand that the world knew so little about the virus which was absolutely scary so we had to play it smart but the mortality rate seems to be lower than the early predictions.  At two different points those hospitalized were reviewed and in both cases 90% and 89% respectively had underlying issues.  No one wants anyone to die but every choice we make has a cost.  Someone else posted the economic impact of pushing people into severe poverty which will result in deaths then there's been other articles that have estimated up to 100,000 Americans could end up committing suicide.  Hopefully both of those estimates are high but the longer this goes on and the slower we are to try to get to a new normal the worse the impact gets. 

We were led to believe the restrictions were only to flatten the curve and we've done it. I don't want to see them move the goal posts to "save lives". I know it sucks that people will die from this but the human race has been dealing with billions of things like viruses and bacteria trying to kill it since the aliens dropped our ancestors off  

[Jason]

7 minutes ago, st1ckboy said:

Since the Rand Paul doesn't show Fauci's response, here is the full video.

 

 

There are many people that think he should be the end all though 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Just now, Jason said:

We were led to believe the restrictions were only to flatten the curve and we've done it. I don't want to see them move the goal posts to "save lives". I know it sucks that people will die from this but the human race has been dealing with billions of things like viruses and bacteria trying to kill it since the aliens dropped our ancestors off  

Absolutely agreed.  To each their own but some people are now acting like we can't end the stay in place order until the virus is gone or there's a vaccine.  The virus isn't going to disappear and even once we get a vaccine which could be next year it may only be 40-50% effective like the flu vaccine and if it mutates it's less effective if at all.  Face masks, social distancing, limit big events or don't allow them at all while everyone who needs or wants to stay home can make that decision but the rest of us can get to a new normal and build up an immunity which is going to do as much or more than a vaccine.

[Adam]

No one has had a worse go of it than that chap Neil Ferguson

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/lockdown-and-mathematical-guesswork/

[Crampknees]

12 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

My WFH setup is on my bar, so I can sit or stand for work throughout the day.

I didn't know you were working at a sand dune now. 

[Jason]

1 minute ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Absolutely agreed.  To each their own but some people are now acting like we can't end the stay in place order until the virus is gone or there's a vaccine.  The virus isn't going to disappear and even once we get a vaccine which could be next year it may only be 40-50% effective like the flu vaccine and if it mutates it's less effective if at all.  Face masks, social distancing, limit big events or don't allow them at all while everyone who needs or wants to stay home can make that decision but the rest of us can get to a new normal and build up an immunity which is going to do as much or more than a vaccine.

We have to consider that we may never even have a vaccine. 

[St1ck]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

No one has had a worse go of it than that chap Neil Ferguson

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/lockdown-and-mathematical-guesswork/

Got it coming off o' the line, Corona

[Adam]

5 minutes ago, st1ckboy said:

Got it coming off o' the line, Corona

I'm going to make you finish the song

[St1ck]

1 minute ago, Adam said:

I'm going to make you finish the song

My Corona

The Knack

Ooh, my little pretty one, my pretty one
When you gonna give me some time, Corona
Ooh, you make my motor run, my motor run
Got it coming off o' the line, Corona

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty mind
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona

Come a little closer, huh, a-will ya, huh?
Close enough to look in my eyes, Corona
Keeping it a mystery, it gets to me
Running down the length of my thigh, Corona

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty mind
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona
M-m-m-my Corona

When you gonna give to me, a gift to me
Is it just a matter of time, Corona?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or is it just a game…

[Amazing Larry]

 

[St1ck]

18 minutes ago, Jason said:

There are many people that think he should be the end all though 

Ok.

[Adam]

5 minutes ago, st1ckboy said:

My Corona

The Knack

Ooh, my little pretty one, my pretty one
When you gonna give me some time, Corona
Ooh, you make my motor run, my motor run
Got it coming off o' the line, Corona

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty mind
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona

Come a little closer, huh, a-will ya, huh?
Close enough to look in my eyes, Corona
Keeping it a mystery, it gets to me
Running down the length of my thigh, Corona

Never gonna stop, give it up, such a dirty mind
I always get it up, for the touch of the younger kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona
M-m-m-my Corona

When you gonna give to me, a gift to me
Is it just a matter of time, Corona?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or is it just a game…

your triflin ass cheat'n ma'fucka

[Adam]

Revised Stanford study

 

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-revised-stanford-estimate-says-santa-clara-county-had-54-times-more-cases-than-we-knew-about/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_content=fb-ocregister&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow

[Lou]

[RallyMo]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Hey smart guys, which includes ummmm  well just uhh @fishbulb I suppose

Question. So this article says that rona been in Ohio since January. 

https://www.wlwt.com/article/antibody-testing-reveals-covid-19-has-been-in-ohio-since-january-health-officials-say/32438290?fbclid=IwAR17d3xokEncVfQv3w_QDeR5V3sfKdPBK-wrWJSzILT_3Fdd27VYv74Jjbs

We've seen others in NY and CA that say it was likely December. 

The R0 is supposed to be between 1.8 and 2.5 or something. Let's round to 2.  

No distancing measures until mid-March. 

A R0 of 2 would mean that infections approximately double each day. Right?

In just 29 days it would be a half billion infections. Clearly that doesn't make sense, does it? 

So which variable is wrong or what am I missing?

I'll head over to the meat locker and take your answer off the air. 

R0 is variable and isn't necessarily perfect. It is situational. It can also be pure dumb luck when it comes to the spread. Superspeaders are a thing. Here's a good read:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/

As for the dumb luck aspect of it, look at the nightclub cluster in South Korea.

More at bats (if you will) in certain situations means more chances to hit a home run for the virus. New York and Wuhan were perfect places for it to just smoke some fools; it didn't need much luck in either place.

[Amazing Larry]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

Believe them all!!!!!!!!

[red321]

39 minutes ago, Adam said:

No one has had a worse go of it than that chap Neil Ferguson

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/lockdown-and-mathematical-guesswork/

Not going to argue questions about the code...models should be very transparent and coding should be reviewed and updated on a regular basis.

But I struggle when the author is using transparently false information to try and back up his assertions. First off...you can't rip someone for lack of transparency and then say...someone who I'm not going to name says something else. it's also completely false to say that the epidemic has stopped growing and is shrinking significantly in Sweden/Stockholm County based on numbers from mid April when a quick search shows that it has not.

Introducing such heterogeneity shows that the threshold to achieve herd immunity with modest social distancing is much lower than the 50-60 per cent implied by the Ferguson model. One experienced modeller tells us that “my own modelling suggests that somewhere between 10 per cent and 30 per cent would suffice, depending on what assumptions one makes.”

Data from Sweden support this. Despite only moderate social-distancing measures, the epidemic stopped growing in Stockholm County by mid-April, and has since shrunk significantly, implying that the herd immunity threshold was reached at a point when around 20 per cent of the population was immune, according to estimates by the Swedish public health authority.

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS517US517&sxsrf=ALeKk027n8EPyCymFLzo3ExOPeE0mlxtHA%3A1589307881739&ei=6em6XpDSLNTn-wSTnI-4Aw&q=stockholm+county+covid+deaths&oq=stockholm+county+co&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAxgAMgcIABAUEIcCMgIIADICCAAyBAgAEAoyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjoECAAQR1CzF1iqGGDFLGgAcAF4AIABV4gBogGSAQEymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpeg&sclient=psy-ab

 

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Believe them all!!!!!!!!

Ok.

[tdawg87]

50 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Rand Paul's statement: facts and stats

Fauci's response: Feelz and "what about the childrenz!"

Pathetic.

Ok.

[tdawg87]

48 minutes ago, Jason said:

There are many people that think he should be the end all though 

Ok.

[RallyMo]

49 minutes ago, Jason said:

There are many people that think he should be the end all though 

Thank you for not asking me to defend this. I hate how you volunteer people.

[St1ck]

Rally mo........He’s a vegetarian 

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, fishbulb said:

Thank you for not asking me to defend this. I hate how you volunteer people.

What do you mean by that?