I think there's work on an unexpected trade scenario

[UCLAngel]

Someone posted in another thread that Eppler might be working on a completely unexpected trade.  I could see that happening as well.  So I started looking at which teams have an excess of pitching and how a deal could be structured.  These are still more unlikely than a Price/Gray/Ray trade, but they'd be interesting to see if they could be worked out. 

• Padres - Padres have a lot of young pitching with Gore and Patino nearing their MLB debuts.  Paddack, Lauer and Lucchesi probably aren't going anywhere.  But Dinelson Lamet is the type of pitcher Eppler likes--throws hard, lots of spin, strikes guys out, controllable through 2023.  Plus the Angels might be able to package him, one of their catchers and take a chunk of Hosmer's salary.  Hosmer is a millstone around the Padres' necks, but he's a decent platoon guy (career .291 against righties and hit 21 of his 22 homers last year against righties).  Platoon him with Albert for 2 years and then platoon him at first with Upton after that.  We could hopefully give up a limited haul (maybe Thaiss and a younger pitcher) to make the deal happen for taking Hosmer off their books.  Lamet walked too many guys but could really benefit from Callaway. 
• Braves - This would be a harder one because we'd almost certainly have to include Marsh as their future replacement for Markakis.  But they have a wealth of young pitching--the most likely target would be a guy like Kyle Wright--really good fastball and lots of minor league success even if he's struggled in his limited MLB action. He's still got 6 years of control and is only 24 years old.  He could develop into a frontline guy. 
• Pirates - While there's been rumors about Musgrove, I think you push to get Mitch Keller away from them.  He'd require a package of Marsh + a couple others most likely.  Young guy (23).  Rough go of it last year (7.13 ERA in 48 innings) but underlying numbers more positive (12.2 K/9 and 3.19 FIP).  Still has 6 years of control.

The one thing I've like about Eppler's moves is he isn't willing to sacrifice the long-term success of the team for short term returns.  That's hard to do as a GM in a contract year.  The easier route would have been to move Marsh for Kluber and boost immediate returns to get himself an extension. 

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, UCLAngel said:

Someone posted in another thread that Eppler might be working on a completely unexpected trade.  I could see that happening as well.  So I started looking at which teams have an excess of pitching and how a deal could be structured.  These are still more unlikely than a Price/Gray/Ray trade, but they'd be interesting to see if they could be worked out. 

• Padres - Padres have a lot of young pitching with Gore and Patino nearing their MLB debuts.  Paddack, Lauer and Lucchesi probably aren't going anywhere.  But Dinelson Lamet is the type of pitcher Eppler likes--throws hard, lots of spin, strikes guys out, controllable through 2023.  Plus the Angels might be able to package him, one of their catchers and take a chunk of Hosmer's salary.  Hosmer is a millstone around the Padres' necks, but he's a decent platoon guy (career .291 against righties and hit 21 of his 22 homers last year against righties).  Platoon him with Albert for 2 years and then platoon him at first with Upton after that.  We could hopefully give up a limited haul (maybe Thaiss and a younger pitcher) to make the deal happen for taking Hosmer off their books.  Lamet walked too many guys but could really benefit from Callaway. 
• Braves - This would be a harder one because we'd almost certainly have to include Marsh as their future replacement for Markakis.  But they have a wealth of young pitching--the most likely target would be a guy like Kyle Wright--really good fastball and lots of minor league success even if he's struggled in his limited MLB action. He's still got 6 years of control and is only 24 years old.  He could develop into a frontline guy. 
• Pirates - While there's been rumors about Musgrove, I think you push to get Mitch Keller away from them.  He'd require a package of Marsh + a couple others most likely.  Young guy (23).  Rough go of it last year (7.13 ERA in 48 innings) but underlying numbers more positive (12.2 K/9 and 3.19 FIP).  Still has 6 years of control.

The one thing I've like about Eppler's moves is he isn't willing to sacrifice the long-term success of the team for short term returns.  That's hard to do as a GM in a contract year.  The easier route would have been to move Marsh for Kluber and boost immediate returns to get himself an extension. 

While logically, moves like this make sense, I think they're devoid of the very human element behind team building.

- Padres: Despite only ok production offensively from Hosmer, he's the leader in the clubhouse, very much the heart beat of that team. Takes the young guys under his wing and shows them how to conduct themselves as a major leaguer. Likely won't trade that personality away.

- The Braves are very hesitant to trade their pitching depth right now. They're starting to see that not all prospects turn out the way you'd hope. Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussant immediately come to mind. Wright as well. 

- The Pirates are just beginning their rebuild. They're going to want prospects ready about 3-4 years from now, and lots of them, in bulk. Marsh is great and everything, but likely won't fit their competitive timeline they're looking at.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Second Base

[AngelsLakersFan]

Bruin

[Billy_Ball]

[jchalos89]

If it's against Padres, it's probably Will Myers contract they are dumping, not Hosmer

[UCLAngel]

3 minutes ago, jchalos89 said:

If it's against Padres, it's probably Will Myers contract they are dumping, not Hosmer

That's a good point--Myers would make more sense to dump than Hosmer. 

[UCLAngel]

33 minutes ago, Second Base said:

While logically, moves like this make sense, I think they're devoid of the very human element behind team building.

- Padres: Despite only ok production offensively from Hosmer, he's the leader in the clubhouse, very much the heart beat of that team. Takes the young guys under his wing and shows them how to conduct themselves as a major leaguer. Likely won't trade that personality away.

- The Braves are very hesitant to trade their pitching depth right now. They're starting to see that not all prospects turn out the way you'd hope. Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussant immediately come to mind. Wright as well. 

- The Pirates are just beginning their rebuild. They're going to want prospects ready about 3-4 years from now, and lots of them, in bulk. Marsh is great and everything, but likely won't fit their competitive timeline they're looking at.

You very well could be right--these are somewhat far fetched moves.  But each team views team building differently--some value leadership and others value bottom line returns.  They've also got Kinsler in that clubhouse who likely fills a similar role. And your point might make the Pirates more attractive a partner--I'd much rather give up quantity that's far from the majors than quality that's close.  I'd give up Adams, Jackson, Kochanowitz + more for a guy like Keller.  That would fit their timeline better and would help us hold on to Adell/Marsh.   

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Syndergaard is a name that pops to mind. 

[CanadianHalo]

A significant trade? I highly doubt it.

A meh trade like Boyd, Ray someone like that? Sure. 

SPLASH!

[ten ocho recon scout]

Just now, CanadianHalo said:

A significant trade? I highly doubt it.

A meh trade like Boyd, Ray someone like that? Sure. 

SPLASH!

Better than cahill / harvey

 

They made a splash, too.... and we finally wiped and flushed.

[CanadianHalo]

12 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Better than cahill / harvey

 

They made a splash, too.... and we finally wiped and flushed.

But the goal is to win a WS (at least I hope it is) not to just do better than Harvey and Cahill

[Erstad Grit]

I could see Lester or Archer (blah) but that's about it. 

[hangin n wangin]

If we got Lamet I would cream my pants.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

But the goal is to win a WS (at least I hope it is) not to just do better than Harvey and Cahill

While true, it isnt that simple

 

The pitchers who are available arent going to win us a series...

[hangin n wangin]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

While true, it isnt that simple

 

The pitchers who are available arent going to win us a series...

That’s the main thing. All these pitchers have huge question marks. I want to win but I don’t want to give another huge contract to an idiot. It’s just not a good position to be in if you’re us. I’m more about long term success rather than blowing my load trying to win these next 2-3 years. So I’m fine waiting another year or so to set up for a decade like run like the dodgers, if possible... but maybe I’m crazy. Eppler is not in a fun position though. All of these decisions are going to severely affect the direction the team goes. Good luck to him.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

One thing I haven't seen considered: The Angels could bring on a mid-level guy (like Tehran or even Gio Gonzales) and then include Heaney or even Canning in a trade. The addition of a promising mid-tier pitcher might be enough to make an ace a viable option.

[totdprods]

41 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

One thing I haven't seen considered: The Angels could bring on a mid-level guy (like Tehran or even Gio Gonzales) and then include Heaney or even Canning in a trade. The addition of a promising mid-tier pitcher might be enough to make an ace a viable option.

I pitched an idea about sending Heaney to the Cubs for both Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.

Lester would have to waive his NTC, but he went to the Cubs because of Maddon, and has been maybe baseball’s most durable SP the last decade. He’s not exciting. League-average. And he’s expensive, I think around $20m in ‘20, with a $25m option for ‘21 with a $10m buyout. 

Quintana is around $12m I think, on his final year under contract.

The Angels would immediately add 60+ GS and 350+ IP of 4.00 ERA ball for basically 1/$32m-$42m depending on when Lester’s $10m buyout is applied - maybe the Cubs can throw in $10m in cash to help. Maybe they have to chip in a lower-level prospect or two or someone like Ward/Peters to get some cash. But those arms drop off next year so you aren’t blocking Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, long-term. They don’t spend any real prospect currency. They open payroll back up again next year to address any FA needs.

The Cubs immediately get a cheaper replacement for their rotation that is controlled through next year,  and they free up $25m+ in payroll they can use to address 2B (deep FA market), RF (maybe they reunite with Castellanos, but also fairly deep in FA) and maybe some help at #5 or in bullpen, also fairly deep in FA. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Lou]

Lester?

please, no. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Lester?

please, no. 

Lester and Quintana. I don't see how they're much worse than any of our other options at this point, either internally or externally, and they are as durable as a SP can get, unlike Ryu or Keuchel, won't cost prospects like Boyd, Gray, Ray, and will be gone before 2021, unlike Price, Keuchel.

• Lester: 31 GS, 172 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 100 ERA+, 1.50 WHIP, 2.8 fWAR
• Quintana: 31 GS, 171 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 95 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP, 3.5 fWAR
• Heaney: 18 GS, 95 IP, 4.91 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 92 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR
• Bundy: 30 GS, 162 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 99 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 fWAR
• Keuchel: 19 GS, 113 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 121 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
• Canning: 17 GS, 90 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 99 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR

At Lester's age, there's certainly a chance last year, which was a definite step down, was the beginning of the end, but it might have been a little flukey. Anibal Sanchez (could he be another potential target?) was awful age 31-34 and looked like he was done before rebounding with Atlanta and Detroit.

I’ll also add that I’m not really a fan of this. Just speculating what could be realistic based off Maddon’s history with Lester, the ‘meh’ FA remaining, the high price for SP in trade, Cubs needs, Angels needs...the Angels are already dangerously close to being in a position where they essentially will be rolling the dice on a Harvey/Cahill 2.0 scenario, be it Keuchel, Price, Boyd, whatever. Question marks. Just need the make sure those question marks aren’t so costly they hurt us in prospects like Boyd might, or in long-term salary, like Ryu, Price, and Keuchel might. Lester and Quintana don’t cost us much. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by totdprods

[Condor1984]

23 hours ago, UCLAngel said:

……... Lamet walked too many guys but could really benefit from Callaway...…...

Lamet walked guys at an average rate in 2019, similar to Ohtani's 2018, 3.7/9. What is intriguing about Lamet is he got better as his recovery season from TJ progressed. His SO rate increased and his BB rate decreased.

I think this guy is under rated and would love to see him become an Angel. He's a tall lanky guy too. I think his upside is easily a No. 1. 

[Angel Oracle]

8 minutes ago, Condor1984 said:

Lamet walked guys at an average rate in 2019, similar to Ohtani's 2018, 3.7/9. What is intriguing about Lamet is he got better as his recovery season from TJ progressed. His SO rate increased and his BB rate decreased.

I think this guy is under rated and would love to see him become an Angel. He's a tall lanky guy too. I think his upside is easily a No. 1. 

Four years club control is always a good thing.    Lots of Ks, almost 1.5 per inning

Regarding Lester and Quintana, their ERAs and WHIPs were quite high in 2019, for NL pitchers.     No thank you, focus on a young pitcher like Lamet, and then sign either Keuchel or Ryu.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Angel Oracle

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Four years club control is always a good thing.    Lots of Ks, almost 1.5 per inning

Regarding Lester and Quintana, their ERAs and WHIPs were quite high in 2019, for NL pitchers.     No thank you, focus on a young pitcher like Lamet, and then sign either Keuchel or Ryu.

FIP was good for both though - indicative of some bad luck and poor defense behind them. 

And it doesn't mean they're only going to be worse in 2020 either. Anibal Sanchez rebounded.