Imagining a Cole-less offseason

[floplag]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

When you say things like "we better be" it implies that you have some influence, power or control, or at least a stake beyond simple fandom. I get it, I just think it is misguided.

Neither of us has any control over what happens. In fact, we have absolutely no say in it whatsoever. It is just simple acceptance. Hope, too, of course.

 

Clearly not how i meant it as i have none of that.
Substitute "this club" for we... it doesnt change anything. 

[Bronson]

19 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Passing on Cole is the smartest decision this team could make. Signing Cole is a win now move. He turns 30 next season and the vast majority of pitchers decline sharply right around then. Odds are he gives a maximum of 2 years of ace level pitching. The Angels are not competing in the next 2 years. 

But.... everyone said our window to start competing is in 2020....

 

If we don’t start competing till Trout is 32 then that is absolutely unacceptable. 

[Angel Oracle]

13 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I'll take Bauer. 

He's said he will only look at 1 year contracts, going forward. 

[kevinb]

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sure, he's pretty good--but, realistically, he's only had one "very good" year so far in his career.  He can definitely improve a rotation, but if he's the best you've got, you're probably not going to the playoffs.  (Side note: yes, I know we'll have Ohtani back--but I remain conservative on him until I see what he can do in a full season)

What if they sign Cole this year. Sign Bauer next year. We'd have Cole Ohtani Bauer Bundy and Canning

[kevinb]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

He's said he will only look at 1 year contracts, going forward. 

So? That sounds good to me. 

[jsnpritchett]

4 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

What if they sign Cole this year. Sign Bauer next year. We'd have Cole Ohtani Bauer Bundy and Canning

Well, sure, that would be fine--but the whole point of this thread is predicated on us not signing Cole.

[kevinb]

2 minutes ago, RBM said:

My concern is the timing. If we don’t sign Cole most of the other pieces will probably be off the board.

The Wheeler signing really opened this whole thing up. He was projected for 4/68 and got 5/118. Now Bumgarner who was projected to to get 4/64 will get something similar. Ryu and Strasburg will get more also. If we let this play out we may end up on the outside looking in.

We should sign Cole now so the process is top-down not bottom-up. 

Don't worry we will. This is where he wants to be and we will offer him the most money. It's a lock!

[Angel Dog and Beer]

4 minutes ago, RBM said:

My concern is the timing. If we don’t sign Cole most of the other pieces will probably be off the board.

The Wheeler signing really opened this whole thing up. He was projected for 4/68 and got 5/118. Now Bumgarner who was projected to to get 4/64 will get something similar. Ryu and Strasburg will get more also. If we let this play out we may end up on the outside looking in.

We should sign Cole now so the process is top-down not bottom-up. 

MLB trade rumors projected him at 5/100

[Justin]

5 minutes ago, RBM said:

We should sign Cole now so the process is top-down not bottom-up. 

I agree, but it takes two to sign a contract. 

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, SoPas Angel said:

I agree, but it takes two to sign a contract. 

Three.  You forgot the agent.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, RBM said:

My concern is the timing. If we don’t sign Cole most of the other pieces will probably be off the board.

Honestly I don’t think there ever were many pieces on the board.

The second tier behind Cole/Strasburg was, at most, the following:

• Wheeler: Heavy competition, wanted East Coast team, was likely prohibitively expensive for our second arm right out of the gate.
• Bumgarner: Seems to have some preference for NL since he likes hitting, possible geographic preference, could be declining and paid more for past than future production  
• Ryu: ??? Could still be viable. Cost might be prohibitive and the Dodgers can and probably will do what they can to keep him before all is said and done 
• Odorizzi: Never made it to open market
• Hamels: Good fit, but high AAV might have kept him from being realistic. Might be a little too exposed to AL West from time with Texas. Is he second tier?
• Keuchel: Could still be a fit, but calling him a second-tier arm could be a stretch, like Hamels. Also might have too much AL West exposure. 

Because of this, it makes sense that Eppler would start working on getting guys like Bundy, maybe Lindblom, to start building by volume in case the above guys just don’t work out. He can pivot towards spending on an infielder/bat/multiple needs or absorbing salary (Price? Darvish? Kluber? Ray?) instead of being backed into a corner where his only avenue is signing one of above.

[Erstad Grit]

I'd be fine with Stras and Ryu instead of Cole. 

[Dtwncbad]

I have so little interest in “building by volume”. . . 
In my mind there is literally no quantity of #3-5 starters high enough that would represent a smart plan to actually win the World Series.

[kevinb]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Honestly I don’t think there ever were many pieces on the board.

The second tier behind Cole/Strasburg was, at most, the following:

• Wheeler: Heavy competition, wanted East Coast team, was likely prohibitively expensive for our second arm right out of the gate.
• Bumgarner: Seems to have some preference for NL since he likes hitting, possible geographic preference, could be declining and paid more for past than future production  
• Ryu: ??? Could still be viable. Cost might be prohibitive and the Dodgers can and probably will do what they can to keep him before all is said and done 
• Odorizzi: Never made it to open market
• Hamels: Good fit, but high AAV might have kept him from being realistic. Might be a little too exposed to AL West from time with Texas. Is he second tier?
• Keuchel: Could still be a fit, but calling him a second-tier arm could be a stretch, like Hamels. Also might have too much AL West exposure. 

Because of this, it makes sense that Eppler would start working on getting guys like Bundy, maybe Lindblom, to start building by volume in case the above guys just don’t work out. He can pivot towards spending on an infielder/bat/multiple needs or absorbing salary (Price? Darvish? Kluber? Ray?) instead of being backed into a corner where his only avenue is signing one of above.

Wasn't there some rumor that there was a package deal Cole and Keuchel? 

[Dick B Back]

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I have so little interest in “building by volume”. . . 
In my mind there is literally no quantity of #3-5 starters high enough that would represent a smart plan to actually win the World Series.

Well what choice do they have if all the second-tier arms don’t want to sign here? That’s the point I’m arguing. 

You can’t force these guys to sign. If his options are 1) build by volume or 2) do nothing, do you want him to do nothing?

The Angels arguably won a WS with a rotation of #3s, as did the White Sox in ‘05.

At some point, Eppler might need to pivot and look at guys like Gregorius, Castellanos, Donaldson for $15-$20m AAV if it’s becoming clear that Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler will have taken $25m+ to come here, and seeing if the offensive contribution helps offset the pitching risk they take on lesser arms. Or move to trade market. Especially if Cole is gonna cost them $35m+ AAV.

Edited December 5, 2019 by totdprods

[floplag]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I have so little interest in “building by volume”. . . 
In my mind there is literally no quantity of #3-5 starters high enough that would represent a smart plan to actually win the World Series.

Sure there is, if the offense is good enough to overcome it.
The winning team in the last world series, which had 2 team with perhaps the best staffs ever, scored 5, 12, 4, 8, 7, 7, and 6 runs respectively. 
Hell we did it ourselves when we won, we didnt have any aces at that time.  Lackey, Washburn, Shields, Ortiz, ... anyone on that staff you wouldnt consider a mid rotation type?
The aces have to pitch like aces for it to matter, and thats not always a given. 
dont get me wrong, i agree we need more, im just saying the idea that you cant win without those guys is kinda... silly to me with all respect. 

[Taylor]

Koleless on Katella

[Dtwncbad]

Never said it was impossible to win a World Series with #3-5 starters.

I said in my mind it’s “not a good plan” (compared to building a roster with talent at the top of the rotation).

Call me crazy, but in early December I am not very interested in settling for something that is not a good plan.

[Docwaukee]

I'd pivot to Rendon before going after Stras, Ryu or Bum.  

Then I'd grab Pineda and Roark or Porcello and Chirinos or Castro.  

teams win in the regular season all the time with mediocre starting pitching, a good offense and a good bullpen.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I'd pivot to Rendon before going after Stras, Ryu or Bum.  

Then I'd grab Pineda and Roark or Porcello and Chirinos or Castro.  

teams win in the regular season all the time with mediocre starting pitching, a good offense and a good bullpen.  

Wholly agree with all though I still think id rather trade for a better option at C than settle for one of those guys but Castro wouldnt be terrible as a fall back if that doesnt happen. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'd pivot to Rendon before going after Stras, Ryu or Bum.  

Then I'd grab Pineda and Roark or Porcello and Chirinos or Castro.  

teams win in the regular season all the time with mediocre starting pitching, a good offense and a good bullpen.  

Yes they do.  I am only speaking for my own opinion, but then that same team goes into the playoffs and the deck is stacked against them if they face a team with a legit ace and a high end #2.

It is really, really easy for me to pick between being the team with the mediocre starting staff and the team with the top heavy rotation when it comes to playoff baseball where aces sometimes get three starts in 7 game series.

[UndertheHalo]

I think bottom line is that if the Angels don’t get Cole or Strasburg the short term outlook is pretty bleak.  We can pretend about this and that.  But there’s not a lot clear pathways without a legitimately reliable strong rotation.  We need those guys.  We’re just wishing on a star or whatever hoping for the best with Ohtani and Canning otherwise. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[totdprods]

There’s an absolutely absurd number of 2B/3B/1B types available via free agency who have varying levels of upside and skillsets. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Angels eventually signed one to see if they get lucky. 

Castellanos could be a value buy and be used in a 1B/RF/LF/DH role for ‘20. While his defense may suck, it may be palatable for a year and he does ‘play’ at several positions where we could benefit from his presence as depth. He’s at an age where his best days may still be ahead of him and there’s a chance he costs the same as Dallas Keuchel.  

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Give me Strasburg and Ryu/Keuchel then.