Morosi: Angels among four "leading contenders" for Zack Wheeler

[floplag]

At some point it become a little silly for a tier 2 guy though... if your going to go ham on it then go ham and get both the tier 1 guys instead of overpaying for a 2.
I like Wheeler, i like his analytics, but if im going to go much higher than weve talked about here i might as well just take the next step. 

[wopphil]

48 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Just give him $3.5 million more per year than you were willing to give him

That's not at all what I am suggesting. I am suggesting challenging certain conventional wisdoms by contracting for a longer duration of a player's career. 

Look at it like this: what is the difference between Cole and Trout? Both are the best or among the best in the game. If you dont object to signing Trout through his age 40 season, why not sign Cole through his age 37 season?

And a longer duration deal might result in a more palatable AAV.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, wopphil said:

That's not at all what I am suggesting. I am suggesting challenging certain conventional wisdoms by contracting for a longer duration of a player's career. 

Look at it like this: what is the difference between Cole and Trout? Both are the best or among the best in the game. If you dont object to signing Trout through his age 40 season, why not sign Cole through his age 37 season?

And a longer duration deal might result in a more palatable AAV.

I was more making fun of someone else’s “logic” on the situation.  I agree, if you can get him by adding a year, and taking a little off of his  annual amount then you do it.  

[CanadianHalo]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I was more making fun of someone else’s “logic” on the situation.  I agree, if you can get him by adding a year, and taking a little off of his  annual amount then you do it.  

Someone else’s aka yourself 

[Stradling]

On 11/21/2019 at 5:54 PM, CanadianHalo said:

3.25 mill a year in this business given everything, yeah not that big of a deal if he’s someone you want. 
 

But keep doing you. 

 

[Lou]

FACE!

[Angelsjunky]

I really want Wheeler, and Cole-Wheeler is the "dream tandem" of free agent pitchers this offseason, but he looks like he could require a massive overpay, at least to secure him now - maybe something like 5/$110M or higher. I'm just not so excited about the Angels spending $50M+ a year on two starting pitchers. But, still...Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval/Pena/Suarez/Barria is damn sexy.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I really want Wheeler, and Cole-Wheeler is the "dream tandem" of free agent pitchers this offseason, but he looks like he could require a massive overpay, at least to secure him now - maybe something like 5/$110M or higher. I'm just not so excited about the Angels spending $50M+ a year on two starting pitchers. But, still...Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval/Pena/Suarez/Barria is damn sexy.

I was always hoping to get him at 4/80 but that went away pretty quick when it seemed like his rate would be 5/100.  So going to 5/110 from there is high but not crazy.  Adding a 6th year seems a little nuts.  

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I was always hoping to get him at 4/80 but that went away pretty quick when it seemed like his rate would be 5/100.  So going to 5/110 from there is high but not crazy.  Adding a 6th year seems a little nuts.  

There is a Primer Series article for this subject!

[tdawg87]

34 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I really want Wheeler, and Cole-Wheeler is the "dream tandem" of free agent pitchers this offseason, but he looks like he could require a massive overpay, at least to secure him now - maybe something like 5/$110M or higher. I'm just not so excited about the Angels spending $50M+ a year on two starting pitchers. But, still...Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval/Pena/Suarez/Barria is damn sexy.

I think it was going to come down to that anyway. Say Cole gets $35 million and then Hamels gets $15 million. 

[Angelsjunky]

34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I was always hoping to get him at 4/80 but that went away pretty quick when it seemed like his rate would be 5/100.  So going to 5/110 from there is high but not crazy.  Adding a 6th year seems a little nuts.  

Yeah, agreed. I just can see the White Sox being the type of team that will massively overpay to at least give the illusion that they're making a run for it. The "Moncada Era." So while 5/110 seems like the upper end of reasonable, I wouldn't be surprised if they do something ridiculous and go even higher. My guess is that Eppler will max out at 5/110 or lower.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

he could require a massive overpay,

Getting any premium free agent requires an overpay. Only one team can sign a guy. And usually that’s the team that will pay what no one else will. By definition, that’s an overpay. 
 

But it’s how the system works. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[wopphil]

Something interesting to consider. Compare the following two guys over the last 2 years (both of whom are the exact same age):

Player A: 323 IP; 110 ERA+; 1.277 WHIP; 3.4 BB/9; 9.5 K/9; 8.1 H/9; 1.0 HR/9.

Player B: 377 IP; 107 ERA+; 1.194 WHIP; 2.5 BB/9; 8.9 K/9; 8.2 H/9; 0.9 HR/9.

Very similar pitchers. Peripherals are close. Player A is more durable over his career, but Player B has a 50 innings advantage the last two years. 

Player A is a QO player, while player B is being talked about for a $100 mil deal. Doesnt seem to make any sense.

[Second Base]

I remember earlier this off-season when I said that Wheeler may get over 20 million a year and over 100 million total, a lot of very intelligent posters said that was unlikely. And yet it's not even Thanksgiving yet and here we are.

Edited November 23, 2019 by Second Base

[Angelsjunky]

16 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Getting any premium free agent requires an overpay. Only one team can sign a guy. And usually that’s the team that will pay what no one else will. By definition, that’s an overpay. 
 

But it’s how the system works. 

Yes, agreed. But as you know, it can vary - depending upon the year, context, player, teams involved, etc. Depending on the combination of factors, a player like Wheeler could get 4/$75M or 6/$132M.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I remember earlier this off-season when I said that Wheeler may get over 20 million a year and over 100 million total, a lot of very intelligent posters said that was unlikely. And yet it's not even Thanksgiving yet and here we are.

I wasn't aware that he had signed already.

[Inside Pitch]

12 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Something interesting to consider. Compare the following two guys over the last 2 years (both of whom are the exact same age):

Player A: 323 IP; 110 ERA+; 1.277 WHIP; 3.4 BB/9; 9.5 K/9; 8.1 H/9; 1.0 HR/9.

Player B: 377 IP; 107 ERA+; 1.194 WHIP; 2.5 BB/9; 8.9 K/9; 8.2 H/9; 0.9 HR/9.

Very similar pitchers. Peripherals are close. Player A is more durable over his career, but Player B has a 50 innings advantage the last two years. 

Player A is a QO player, while player B is being talked about for a $100 mil deal. Doesnt seem to make any sense.

Madbums away stats aren't pretty.   OPS allowed over .810 both years, his home park is masking his decline.   Wheeler isn't showing that sort of neutral park concern, the predictive data also favors him.   When push comes to shove, one pitcher looks like his best days are behind him... The other may yet elevate his game.

[wopphil]

17 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Madbums away stats aren't pretty.   OPS allowed over .810 both years, his home park is masking his decline.   Wheeler isn't showing that sort of neutral park concern, the predictive data also favors him.   When push comes to shove, one pitcher looks like his best days are behind him... The other may yet elevate his game.

Odorizzi is player A. I was shocked at how similarly he profiles to Wheeler.

[Second Base]

If you want to know a solid predictive equation on how much a player will get in free agency, basically just take what you think would be a fair market deal for them back in August, and then increase it by 35%.

Obviously it isn't always accurate, Moustakas and Keuchel come to mind. But it does give you a ballpark figure.

Just as an example, back in August, I thought Wheeler should get 5/75. Multiply that by 35% and you get 102 million. Now just round up or down as you wish. 

Wheeler will get 5/105.

Now here comes the scary part. Back in August I thought Cole would get 7/210. You increase that by 35% and it's like 283 million. 

Hopefully the model is wrong on that one.

[Angelsjunky]

A few weeks ago, from Fangraphs:

Kiley McDaniel 4/$68M

Median Crowdsource 4/$72M

Average Crowdsource 4.22/$77.2M

I really hope that we're all over-reaching a bit, but those all look very low.

[Second Base]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A few weeks ago, from Fangraphs:

Kiley McDaniel 4/$68M

Median Crowdsource 4/$72M

Average Crowdsource 4.22/$77.2M

I really hope that we're all over-reaching a bit, but those all look very low.

If 4/68 was all it took you get Wheeler, then the Angels and virtually a dozen other teams likely would've signed him already. 

I think at the very minimum, he's going to get 5/90. He's just in a very beneficial spot. Not many teams can afford what Gerrit Cole will get, and the consensus still seems to be that Strasburg will return to Washington at some point. With Bumgarner being on the downside of his career and Ryu's age and injury history, it essentially makes Wheeler the  main alternative to Cole.  So many teams being in on him will drive the price up into a very severe overpay range.

Don't get me wrong, I like Wheeler. I've liked him since he was in the Giants system. But if you're paying over 100 million, over 20 million a year for a 30-something pitcher with a high 3 ERA and a troubling gap in his career where he was effectively out 3 years because of Tommy John surgery and rehab, then you're paying way over what common logic would suggest is a good idea.

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Odorizzi is player A. I was shocked at how similarly he profiles to Wheeler.

Gotcha....  

I figured you'd stick to guys actually currently avilable.... No telling what sort of dollars people would be attaching to Odorizzi were he on the market.  Also, they are similar so long as you ignore Wheeler works deeper into games. 

Wheeler going 6+ .vs Odorizzi's 5.1 per start likely impacts those rates you listed.

Good post btw...

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If 4/68 was all it took you get Wheeler, then the Angels and virtually a dozen other teams likely would've signed him already. 

I think at the very minimum, he's going to get 5/90. He's just in a very beneficial spot. Not many teams can afford what Gerrit Cole will get, and the consensus still seems to be that Strasburg will return to Washington at some point. With Bumgarner being on the downside of his career and Ryu's age and injury history, it essentially makes Wheeler the  main alternative to Cole.  So many teams being in on him will drive the price up into a very severe overpay range.

Don't get me wrong, I like Wheeler. I've liked him since he was in the Giants system. But if you're paying over 100 million, over 20 million a year for a 30-something pitcher with a high 3 ERA and a troubling gap in his career where he was effectively out 3 years because of Tommy John surgery and rehab, then you're paying way over what common logic would suggest is a good idea.

Yes, agree with everything you say here - including the minimum salary. He won't get less than that, imo.

It is easy to get carried away - both fans and, I think, GMs. Especially at this time of the year. What a tricky thing it is.

[wopphil]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Gotcha....  

I figured you'd stick to guys actually currently avilable.... No telling what sort of dollars people would be attaching to Odorizzi were he on the market.  Also, they are similar so long as you ignore Wheeler works deeper into games. 

Wheeler going 6+ .vs Odorizzi's 5.1 per start likely impacts those rates you listed.

Good post btw...

Don't get me wrong, Wheeler is the better bet to repeat his performance, and has more upside.

But I am shocked the market for Wheeler could be $100 mil, and the market for Odorizzi wasn't better than a QO. You have to assume Odorizzi wouldn't have accepted the QO if teams were indicating to him they would got 3 years and $45 mil or so. The fact that teams were not, presumably, willing to get to that range makes me wonder how many are really willing to go 5/90+ on Wheeler.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

Don't get me wrong, Wheeler is the better bet to repeat his performance, and has more upside.

But I am shocked the market for Wheeler could be $100 mil, and the market for Odorizzi wasn't better than a QO. You have to assume Odorizzi wouldn't have accepted the QO if teams were indicating to him they would got 3 years and $45 mil or so. The fact that teams were not, presumably, willing to get to that range makes me wonder how many are really willing to go 5/90+ on Wheeler.

I think it's been reported Odorizzi's agent steered him towards accepting the QO and going again next year when he would be a bigger profile guy and possibly get a better deal.  But yeah, you're right...how much of this Wheeler talk is noise we have no clue...