Contract Predictions from The Athletic // Jim Bowden

[wopphil]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I was listening to his show last night and was just shaking my head.  The thing he seemed more confident of was that Cole was going to get 8 years, he was speaking to it as if it was fact.  

A client of mine is a prominent baseball agent. We had lunch a few weeks ago and I asked him for some of his predictions. He had no idea. He said the market is so unpredictable with what has happened the last few years.

So my thought is that if an agent doesn't have any real idea of the market at this point in time, Bowden certainly doesn't. 

[Fish Oil]

3 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

If this is even close to what Cole or Stras are going to get I would pass all day every day. I wouldn't go over 7 years for Cole and I wouldn't go over 3 or 4 years for Stras. Sign a couple of the middle tier guys. That's just crazy money for both Stras and Cole. 

I can see Cole/Boras thinking this may be a possibility. I can't see Strasburg getting anywhere close to this.

 

[Claude]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

A client of mine is a prominent baseball agent. We had lunch a few weeks ago and I asked him for some of his predictions. He had no idea. He said the market is so unpredictable with what has happened the last few years.

So my thought is that if an agent doesn't have any real idea of the market at this point in time, Bowden certainly doesn't. 

100% agreeing with this. I personally don’t believe the hype. I don’t think there will be as much interest in Cole as the media outlets are projecting because of their fake projected rumored cost. The Angels might be the only team in the Cole market. The heavy hitters Red Sox, Astros, Yankees and Dodgers are not going to get seriously involved which will automatically bring the market down. 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Pancake Bear]

8 years is possible. 36aav might be. Both? I guess, but it takes teams bidding there to get to that point. 

Comparing Cole to the big 3 SP contracts signed recently, though, suggested to me that most estimates are low, and 7yr, 245 could be low. 

Strasburg? I don’t see any way he makes that much. 

[Duren, Duren]

I don't see the Angels signing anyone for more than Trout is getting. At least this year. Partly a symbolic gesture that he deserves to be the highest paid player on the team. Also because it would severely limit what the club can do with other needs. 

Maybe in the next few years if the economics keep getting higher Trout's contract will seen in a different context.

If Cole"s demands and/or a bidding war ensue the Angels will just have to walk away. You can't become fixated on one player. Especially a pitcher for the decade of his thirties. Eight years are a red flag, almost insuring the probability of injury and/or decline for some of the last part of the contract. 

And timing is a factor. If Cole waits months, other options shrink with different players signing earlier elsewhere. 

I would try and get an early meeting with Boras and see what the realistic parameters are. Does Cole want to prioritize certain teams and locations? Could there be any kind of 'home town discount' or creative way of structuring a deal if he wants to play out his career with the Angels? Maybe a bit naive in this day and age, but you never know what really motivates individuals. Especially since the money will be stratospheric to one degree or another wherever he goes. 

If the Angels can get an early, honest assessment, they should be either all in or all out quickly. Personally I would try to spread the money around. Ryu and another pitcher. Or a combo of a Grandal, and a pair of mid priced pitchers. Even a power hitting infielder like Donaldson for two or three years. 

Timing is important. They can't play it like last year when they waited late to get Harvey and the other scrap heap reclamation projects.

[Claude]

1 minute ago, Sean-Regan said:

8 years is possible. 36aav might be. Both? I guess, but it takes teams bidding there to get to that point. 

Comparing Cole to the big 3 SP contracts signed recently, though, suggested to me that most estimates are low, and 7yr, 245 could be low. 

Strasburg? I don’t see any way he makes that much. 

There’s no way to justify giving Cole the same paycheck that they give Mike Trout every month. 

[Angelsjunky]

Some of those predictions are just plain ridiculous.

Fangraphs has their list out - much more reasonable:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

[Angel Oracle]

Am I missing something about Yan Gomes?    How is he not on either of those lists?    Three straight seasons of .700+ OPS, and a very solid guy behind the plate? 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Angel Oracle

[Pancake Bear]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Some of those predictions are just plain ridiculous.

Fangraphs has their list out - much more reasonable:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

Kiley’s predictions on Cole and Stras match mine, so obviously he’s totally correct. 

[nate]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

I was listening to his show last night and was just shaking my head.  The thing he seemed more confident of was that Cole was going to get 8 years, he was speaking to it as if it was fact.  Did you guys know that Eppler worked for the Rockies at one point?  I must have missed that.  I think it was Ryan Spilborghs who does a show with Bowden who was saying that Eppler signed him in his home when he was with the Rockies.  

Same shit Bowden does all the time man, and people listen to him like he is some guru.

[T.G.]

19 minutes ago, nate said:

Same shit Bowden does all the time man, and people listen to him like he is some guru.

It's like some of these sports networks hire these guys just to give us someone to dislike and talk about...

[Glen]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Some of those predictions are just plain ridiculous.

Fangraphs has their list out - much more reasonable:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

"While there are no guarantees he’ll get either of the last two, he wasted no time in donning a Team Boras cap in the aftermath of Game 7, a move that suggested his days in Houston are over and that he’ll give no quarter in seeking the largest-ever contract for a pitcher."

 

Welp. That means he'll probably drag it out and the Angels will have to move on.

[floplag]

One thing i didnt note earlier, why does he think Castellanos makes sense for us i wonder?  Hes a lateral move from Calhoun.  If we wanted to pay that much for a RF we already have that and only for one year with 2 good ones in the wings not counting Goodwin.  Sometimes i wonder what the logic is on these 

 

[Angel Oracle]

13 minutes ago, Glen said:

"While there are no guarantees he’ll get either of the last two, he wasted no time in donning a Team Boras cap in the aftermath of Game 7, a move that suggested his days in Houston are over and that he’ll give no quarter in seeking the largest-ever contract for a pitcher."

 

Welp. That means he'll probably drag it out and the Angels will have to move on.

Just sign Wheeler and a strong behind the plate guy like Gomes first.  That makes it more attractive for Cole to come here. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

So my thought is that if an agent doesn't have any real idea of the market at this point in time, Bowden certainly doesn't. 

This is underrated. I think in recent years, agents who have been slower to recognize the market and trends have been passed by. Too many of them are still expecting the 2000s yankees to outbid every year.

The two biggest spenders, dodgers and skanks, have become much smarter. And it seems like every team knows drafting is more important now.

Maybe Cole is different in that regard... but i sure as hell dont see bowdens numbers being right 

[Pancake Bear]

FWIW, Bowden wasn’t really too high on last years free agents. He was actually low on Corbin. 

But, like wopphil said, we don’t really know. His projections for Cole and Strasburg seem a bit high to me. I can’t see Cole getting the aav record if he insists on 8 years. If he wants to beat Greinke’s 34aav, he won’t get that with 8 years, IMO. 

[angelsnationtalk]

$36M AAV is a flipping joke. That's near Trout territory. No one is near Trout territory, not even Cole.

[winhalos]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

$36M AAV is a flipping joke. That's near Trout territory. No one is near Trout territory, not even Cole.

totally agree. That kind of money for a guy that only plays once every 5, 6 or even 7 days as in the Angles case with Ohtani? No way! Pitchers can break easier too. 

[Pancake Bear]

9 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

$36M AAV is a flipping joke. That's near Trout territory. No one is near Trout territory, not even Cole.

So no one should ever have a higher aav than Trout? Or is it just too soon?

Trout’s extension was for 12 years - that shifts the aav lower than a 7yr contract does. 

I don’t see a major issue with it, personally. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

So no one should ever have a higher aav than Trout? Or is it just too soon?

Trout’s extension was for 12 years - that shifts the aav lower than a 7yr contract does. 

I don’t see a major issue with it, personally. 

Both?
Until someone is better than he is, contributes more than he does, etc... they should not get paid what he does.  Especially not less than a year later. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Both?
Until someone is better than he is, contributes more than he does, etc... they should not get paid what he does.  Especially not less than a year later. 

Okay, I’m good with not paying anyone 430m. Next question?

[Jay]

15 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Okay, I’m good with not paying anyone 430m. Next question?

Can't compare Cole to Trout in terms of who is better, or relative contributions.

You just have to pay both of them, whatever it takes.

 

[Erstad Grit]

Aces are very hard to aquire. I like Corbin but he's no ace but he cashed in. He was Nationals 3# pitcher. My guess is Cole gets way more than most think. Phillies, White Sox, twins, Padres, etc are all teams I could see driving the price up. 

[Turd Ferguson]

We have too many holes to fill to shell out $275+M on one player, IMO. 

[Stradling]

It’ll be less than $240 million unless it’s 8 years.   Then it could be $248 Million for 8 years. 
 

 

this is merely an opinion