Cole

[Wisconsin27]

Hi,

I have been reading this board multiple times daily for years.  I really want to express thanks to the many long-time contributors; particlary Doc, Second, TPod, and the many more who offer the routine contributions on the state of the farm; I have no other trusted source.

I have chose to write for the first time in many years because I quite simply don't understand the "Cole or nothing" mantra that appears to have  become etched in stone.  Let me start by saying that I agree that if we were to draw it up, Cole is at the top of the list.  The reasons have been discussed ad nauseum.  And I agree with most we need a 3/4 innings eater "in addition to Cole."

All of that said, I suggest we pump the brakes.  I get the whole "local connection," White, Sassi, etc.  But lest we need to be reminded he is a Boras Client.  If we know anything about Boras, we know he's going to holdout until very late in the process and likely take the largest offer regardless of location.  This leave Eppler, who I admire but also understand currently has one year to prove himself, in a very difficult spot.

Does he "plan" on acquiring Cole and proceed by adding that 3/4 starter, only to potentially be left out of the other top players available via FA or trade?  Or does he make a "best offer" and proceed with a secondary plan unwilling to wait around?

As a Laker fan and recently impacted by the KL debacle, I can fully understand why he would move on despite my desire to roll-the-dice and put us in contention in the most obvious way possible.

Am I wrong for feeling it's not a "Cole or bust" offseason?  Are people truly of the mindset our '20 season rests largely on attaining Cole?

Mike

 

 

[Jay]

Welcome to the board, Wisconsin27.

 

[UndertheHalo]

You’re not wrong, it’s going to be difficult to pull him down.  But the Angels need an ace and he’s their best shot at it.  

Theres no getting around the probability that the Angels have a very difficult path to contention in the near term.  Which is terrible because it would be remarkable if they can’t get Trout into the playoffs before his 30’s.  Successfully landing Cole plus others is probably the least difficult of the very few paths they have to legitimate contention.  I guess those other paths exist but they’re tough to see.

 

[Troll Daddy]

You must of been reading my posts or my mind

[Vlad27Trout27]

the difference with Cole is that he'll have teams trying to sign him in free agency and willing to give up money. He's a true number 1, he still 29 and has not shown any decline,. compare to guys like Arrieta, Dallas, and even Kimbel were over 30 and showied decline. Even Corbin was of the market before the season started. 

[Docwaukee]

welcome aboard Mike.  

I think you've mapped it out well as to the possible scenarios.  

I personally think this team is in desperate need of a front of the rotation starter.  

and it could very well 4 months before he signs.  you just never know.  The Angels would have to blow him away from early on in order to make him move on a deal quickly but I wouldn't put it past them to do so if they really want him.  

the way I feel about it is that the rest of the market is a clear step down and they shouldn't shop that mid market.  

To truly compete they need a guy pitching like Cole is right now.  If they don't get that, their road to being competitive is much less obvious 

so the short answer is yes, I'd like to see them in on Cole no matter how long it takes.  

 

[Claude]

18 minutes ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Am I wrong for feeling it's not a "Cole or bust" offseason?  Are people truly of the mindset our '20 season rests largely on attaining Cole?

Mike

Mike it’s Arte’s money. There’s no way for us to know what his offseason spending plan is. They will have plenty of competition. Hopefully they won’t wait too long to make their decision because waiting could also derail Plan B.

[totdprods]

Welcome @Wisconsin27, thanks for the props on the farm updates, it’s appreciated! Please post some more.

Regarding Cole...my guess is if the Angels want him and he wants the Angels, it won’t take too long for the two to come to terms even with the Boras factor in play. If he wants top dollar or isn’t tied to playing here, different story. 

Outside of Cole, I think Eppler is going to move quick to address the rotation via trade. I feel he was ready to pull the trigger this deadline, but the prices were simply astronomical for controllable arms and Eppler does. not. overpay. Prices should be a little better over winter, and he’ll have a clearer picture whom he can offer up between our young AA/AAA/MLB bats and our A/A+ arms. This also helps keep payroll flexible and open for a Cole pursuit.

If the Angels do sign Cole, and even if they swing a trade, I expect they will still shop for one-year vet SPs, but instead of pulling the trigger early for max money on guys like Cahill and Harvey, I think he will wait out the market a little more this time, and see if he can find something similar to Wade Miley or Gio come late January.

If Cole does not sign, or a trade doesn’t materialize, it gets a little harder to guess what he might do. Odorizzi, Gibson, Wood, Roark, Wheeler, etc. seem like reasonable options on paper, but a mid-tier arm isn’t going to put us over the top in ‘20, and their cost/effectiveness/value will only be murkier in years following, time when that money might be better suited elsewhere, and that playing time might be better for one of the young arms we’re developing. This line of thinking does make me think we might see a sort of “Cole or bust” scenario take root, where Eppler refrains from spending on middling arms and opts to just wait it out for cheap vets or trade it out and wait a year if they fail to sign Gerrit, and reassess their plans to address the front of the rotation at the ‘20 deadline or 2021 offseason.

Edited August 15, 2019 by totdprods

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

the difference with Cole is that he'll have teams trying to sign him in free agency and willing to give up money. He's a true number 1, he still 29 and has not shown any decline,. compare to guys like Arrieta, Dallas, and even Kimbel were over 30 and showied decline. Even Corbin was of the market before the season started. 

Corbin signed on 12/17/2019 so he was definitely available.  

[Wisconsin27]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Welcome @Wisconsin27, thanks for the props on the farm updates, it’s appreciated! Please post some more.

Regarding Cole...my guess is if the Angels want him and he wants the Angels, it won’t take too long for the two to come to terms even with the Boras factor in play. If he wants top dollar or isn’t tied to playing here, different story. 

Outside of Cole, I think Eppler is going to move quick to address the rotation via trade. I feel he was ready to pull the trigger this deadline, but the prices were simply astronomical for controllable arms and Eppler does. not. overpay. Prices should be a little better over winter, and he’ll have a clearer picture whom he can offer up between our young AA/AAA/MLB bats and our A/A+ arms. This also helps keep payroll flexible and open for a Cole pursuit.

If the Angels do sign Cole, and even if they swing a trade, I expect they will still shop for one-year vet SPs, but instead of pulling the trigger early for max money on guys like Cahill and Harvey, I think he will wait out the market a little more this time, and see if he can find something similar to Wade Miley or Gio come late January.

If Cole does not sign, or a trade doesn’t materialize, it gets a little harder to guess what he might do. Odorizzi, Gibson, Wood, Roark, Wheeler, etc. seem like reasonable options on paper, but a mid-tier arm isn’t going to put us over the top in ‘20, and their cost/effectiveness/value will only be murkier in years following, time when that money might be better suited elsewhere, and that playing time might be better for one of the young arms we’re developing. This line of thinking does make me think we might see a sort of “Cole or bust” scenario take root, where Eppler refrains from spending on middling arms and opts to just wait it out for cheap vets or trade it out and wait a year if they fail to sign Gerrit, and reassess their plans to address the front of the rotation at the ‘20 deadline or 2021 offseason.

Thanks, TP.  But honestly, thanks for all you add.

I don't feel like I add a ton to the discussion, so I have always treated the site as my news source (or comic relief in the case of TDawg!).

I hope you are correct.  That said, I  can understand why your last paragraph puts Eppler in a tough spot; It may be a case of what's best for the team doesn't jive with him getting another contract.  That would be tough on anybody.

 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

my guess is that Boras will start by comping Cole to Scherzer yet talking about how he's a year younger than Scherzer was for his FAcy.  

there are two schools of though here actually.  If he goes early, it's because there was a huge bidding war.  If he goes late it's because the asking price has scared off a bunch of people

personally I think it's going to go late but we'll still be in.  

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Thanks, TP.  But honestly, thanks for all you add.

I don't feel like I add a ton to the discussion, so I have always treated the site as my news source (or comic relief in the case of TDawg!).

I hope you are correct.  That said, I  can understand why your last paragraph puts Eppler in a tough spot; It may be a case of what's best for the team doesn't jive with him getting another contract.  That would be tough on anybody.

 

 

 

you add more than you know by starting out as someone who is trying to contribute content worthy of discussion and not just bashing the team without being thoughtful or insightful.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Arte can do what he did with Albert or maybe Josh, and offer him a more than reasonable offer and give a few days to take it or leave it...

[Claude]

Just now, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Arte can do what he did with Albert or maybe Josh, and offer him a more than reasonable offer and give a few days to take it or leave it...

He could also do what the Yankees do. Don’t make an offer. Tell Cole to go out and get offers but come talk to us before you sign. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

He could also do what the Yankees do. Don’t make an offer. Tell Cole to go out and get offers but come talk to us before you sign. 

And by then there may be no one left of any worth, and if he signs elsewhere we end up with another Harvey. No Thanks; we need to know where we stand early enough to move on to other top pitchers before they're gone...

What top FA pitchers have the Yankees signed lately?...

Edited August 15, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Claude]

Just now, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

And by then there may be no one left of any worth,and if he signs elsewhere we end up with another Harvey. No Thanks we need to know where we stand early enough to move on to other top pitchers before they;re gone...

There is absolutely no reason not to operate with a business as usual approach with other free agents during that same time. You can’t afford to allow one pitcher to hold your offseason hostage. Boras is going to call you eventually. He wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t. The Angels could sign other players and still land Cole in January if that’s how it plays out. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

There is absolutely no reason not to operate with a business as usual approach with other free agents during that same time. You can’t afford to allow one pitcher to hold your offseason hostage. Boras is going to call you eventually. He wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t. The Angels could sign other players and still land Cole in January if that’s how it plays out. 

They couldn't afford to sign Ryu and Cole, and Ryu would be my second choice if Cole won't sign with us.

Edited August 15, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

4 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

There is absolutely no reason not to operate with a business as usual approach with other free agents during that same time. You can’t afford to allow one pitcher to hold your offseason hostage. Boras is going to call you eventually. He wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t. The Angels could sign other players and still land Cole in January if that’s how it plays out. 

you mean like last year, that work well didn't it?

[Claude]

24 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

you mean like last year, that work well didn't it?

Arte wasn’t spending last season because Trout was the priority. I was fine with that. This year is different. Eppler should give Ryu and Cole equal attention. Waiting out Cole could be a huge mistake. Like I said, just tell Boras to call us before he signs. Arte doesn’t want to engage in a bidding war. If Boras doesn’t call the Angels on decision day then he probably wasn’t really interested in playing here anyway. He’s not going to lower his price just to play for us. 

Edited August 15, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

13 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Arte wasn’t spending last season because Trout was the priority. I was fine with that. This year is different. Eppler should give Ryu and Cole equal attention. Waiting out Cole could be a huge mistake. Like I said, just tell Boras to call us before he signs. He’s not going to lower his price anyway. 

With Boras, Cole may wait til Spring Training or later before he decides. See Harper, Manny, Dallas, etc... That's  unacceptable.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

If we ask Cole to get his offers first, and then see us before you sign. What's to prevent him from taking our offer back to them, nothing and it's exactly what Boras would do.

[Claude]

Just now, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

With Boras, Cole may wait til Spring Training or later before he decides. See Harper, Manny, Dallas, etc... That's  unacceptable.

I get that but there’s nothing Arte or Eppler can do about that unless they’re willing to grossly overpay immediately. We want him but we also have to have a plan B in place that doesn’t derail our offseason waiting to sign him. Boras isn’t always public about what they’re demanding but he always has a third party media mouth piece blurt out numbers to get feedback. 

[Claude]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

If we ask Cole to get his offers first, and then see us before you sign. What's to prevent him from taking our offer back to them, nothing and it's exactly what Boras would do.

Arte will give his final offer at that point anyway. I’m pretty sure that there is a number that the Angels will go with regardless. It would be a take it or leave it offer or no offer at all if the competition is too high. 

[Claude]

Great thread Wisconsin 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, Calzone 2 said:

l get that but there’s nothing Arte or Eppler can do about that unless they’re willing to grossly overpay immediately.

We overpaid for Pujols and Josh, both were not what we hoped for. Both were past their prime and on the decline. Hamilton's second half was down substantially from first half of 2012. Cole is still in his prime years and is going to get overpaid by someone it should be us. If we don't spend what ever it takes to sign an Ace, Arte will be wasting the half a billion dollars Trout will make before he retires...