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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Could they sign Rendon, either Odorizzi or Miley, and a late innings guy not named Smith, and then use some excess to trade for a solid enough innings eater? 

Maybe. Hard to say if guys like Odorizzi and Wheeler wind up in the Eovaldi/Happ/Morton range ($15m-$18m AAV), or in the Lance Lynn/Dallas Keuchel/Yusei Kikuchi range ($10m-$14m). Miley is pitching well, but even Cahill/Harvey/Sanchez money ($9m-$11m) would be a big jump from his 2019 salary of $4.5m.

My guess is Rendon lands around the $25-$30m range pretty easily - he's at a key position, hitting great, and brings good defense. 
If the Angels plunked that down, they're left with maybe $10-$15m AAV for a SP before they start complicating things. I doubt Wheeler, Ryu, Bumgarner, maybe even Odorizzi take that little. 

That'd leave them shopping along more of the Miley, Gibson, Roark, Porcello, Wood, Pineda, Keuchel tier. The only way that sounds sufficient is if they 1) pull of a really surprising trade for a very good, legit #2 type SP (Boyd? Minor? Ray?) and 2) see a lot of growth from Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria to close the year. Or, they trade Simmons and free up another $15m for more pitching - and likely get pitching back in his trade. Losing his defensive presence is offset by adding Rendon to 3B.

2020 w/ Rendon instead of big pitching
Rotation: #1 Ohtani, #2  Boyd/Ray Trade, #3 Miley/Gibson, #4 Heaney, #5, Canning, #6 Sandoval/Suarez/Barria/Pena/Peters (one or two of these guys likely traded though)
Bullpen: Robles, Bedrosian, Buttrey, Anderson, Middleton, Cole, Ramirez, Pena
Line-up: Rendon 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, La Stella 2B, Simmons SS, Adell/Goodwin RF, Stassi C
Bench: Smith C, Thaiss/Ward/Rojas (whoever isn't traded) 1B/3B, Rengifo/Fletcher (whoever isn't traded) UT IF and some 4th OF, and Zack Cozart UT IF

Honestly not bad, but they'd be gambling heavily on the kid arms, throwing a lot of FA $$ at mid-range SP talent which usually isn't a good idea, clogging up payroll more than Eppler would like by way of a Rendon mega-deal, and likely needing to sink a lot of prospect capital into a trade for another arm. It's not a bad 26-man, but also not particularly comforting.

Edited by totdprods

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I guess the question then is, will Arte ever again go over the tax threshold for even just a brief time (1-2 years max), to get the right guys (Cole plus solid innings eater or Rendon plus solid pitcher, plus one late innings guy not named Smith) in here?

Or is a year from now the better time to take that last step to post-season play in 2021?

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17 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I guess the question then is, will Arte ever again go over the tax threshold for even just a brief time (1-2 years max), to get the right guys (Cole plus solid innings eater or Rendon plus solid pitcher, plus one late innings guy not named Smith) in here?

Or is a year from now the better time to take that last step to post-season play in 2021?

That's a good question. With the number of big contracts that start coming off the books the next several consecutive offseasons, and the number of productive, cheap, optionable talent we are accumulating to help the MLB team, and with Trout now locked-up for the long-term, I actually do think Arte is in a likelier position to push the payroll for a season or two. But that also doesn't mean I expect him to. 

He can do it and he has shown no issue being bold in the past when the time was truly right - Vlad, Pujols, Hamilton, Trout 1.0, Trout 2.0 - so if Eppler and he decide this year or next year is the year, they could do it. I can also see Eppler preaching patience and frugality though too, and Arte listening, based off his prior investments not really working out.

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I would love to have Rendon, but I think our offense is good enough to compete in 2020. We need...so much pitching though. 

Realistically, we need at least 3 pitchers including 2 impact starters this off-season. Honestly we could use 3 starters. It's that bad. 

Cole isn't the only answer, but if they miss out on all of Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, etc... then there is a problem. I think we need to sign a big FA starter AND trade for one. Signing a reliever would be ideal but we also have Middleton back next year so I don't expect Eppler to go crazy.

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44 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I guess the question then is, will Arte ever again go over the tax threshold for even just a brief time (1-2 years max), to get the right guys (Cole plus solid innings eater or Rendon plus solid pitcher, plus one late innings guy not named Smith) in here?

Or is a year from now the better time to take that last step to post-season play in 2021?

No more waiting.  It is time to win now.

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:


2020 w/ Rendon instead of big pitching
Rotation: #1 Ohtani, #2  Boyd/Ray Trade, #3 Miley/Gibson, #4 Heaney, #5, Canning, #6 Sandoval/Suarez/Barria/Pena/Peters (one or two of these guys likely traded though)
Bullpen: Robles, Bedrosian, Buttrey, Anderson, Middleton, Cole, Ramirez, Pena
Line-up: Rendon 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, La Stella 2B, Simmons SS, Adell/Goodwin RF, Stassi C
Bench: Smith C, Thaiss/Ward/Rojas (whoever isn't traded) 1B/3B, Rengifo/Fletcher (whoever isn't traded) UT IF and some 4th OF, and Zack Cozart UT IF
 

I'd like to see you elaborate on this with a trade of Simmons for a combo of pitching/prospects and the insertion of Fletcher/Rengifo to cover SS.  It would open up $ for FA as well (late-tier innings eater, established vet MIF, bullpen, etc.).

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With the talk of trading Simba, do we know that Rengifo can indeed handle SS?    Paris is probably 5 years away, and Wilson is struggling to hit well in rookie ball.    Fletcher seems to be a better fit at 3B?   Would they then entertain the thought of signing LaStella to a new 2-3 year deal after 2020?

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9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I would love to have Rendon, but I think our offense is good enough to compete in 2020. We need...so much pitching though. 

Realistically, we need at least 3 pitchers including 2 impact starters this off-season. Honestly we could use 3 starters. It's that bad. 

Cole isn't the only answer, but if they miss out on all of Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, etc... then there is a problem. I think we need to sign a big FA starter AND trade for one. Signing a reliever would be ideal but we also have Middleton back next year so I don't expect Eppler to go crazy.

Based off what I have in front of me regarding the team's current state, this is my ideal offseason, in five moves, after declining Calhoun's option, non-tendering Bour, Garcia, Tropeano, and JC Ramirez, and letting Cahill walk. Frees up nearly $50m AAV.

  • Sign Gerrit Cole, 6/ $170m
  • Trade for SP Boyd and RP Jimenez/Farmer - five for two, Marsh, Suarez, Jones, Ward, and one of Ortega/Bradish/Jackson/Adams/Knowles/Hernandez. F*ck it. We need help.
  • Sign Jason Castro, 2/$10m
  • Sign Collin McHugh 2/$12m
  • Sign Adam Jones for the bench, 1/$3m each

It's a lot of money, and a lot of veterans, with a good chunk taken from our farm. But it adds to the pen, adds to the rotation, and doesn't destroy our young IF and SP depth. 

2020
Rotation: Cole, Boyd, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning (with Sandoval, Barria, Peters for depth)
Bullpen: Robles, Buttrey, Anderson, Middleton, Bedrosian, McHugh, Pena, Cole, Ramirez and Jimenez/Farmer
Line-up: Fletcher 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, La Stella 2B, Simmons SS, Adell/Jones/Goodwin RF, Castro C
Bench: Stassi C, Thaiss 1B/3B, Cozart UT IF, Rengifo UT IF/4th OF, Hermosillo OF

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

With the talk of trading Simba, do we know that Rengifo can indeed handle SS?    Paris is probably 5 years away, and Wilson is struggling to hit well in rookie ball. 

Offensively it's a wash. Rengifo may be better overall. 

But defensively...oh man. That's like going from Beltre to Trumbo at 3rd. We'd need Fletcher to be the full-time SS. 

Also I think Wilson's "struggling" in rookie ball is just overstated from the Minor League thread. He's batting .280 with a .776 OPS. He's not killing it by any means, especially not for a 1st round pick out of college, but he's hardly "struggling".

Edited by tdawg87

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7 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

With the talk of trading Simba, do we know that Rengifo can indeed handle SS?    Paris is probably 5 years away, and Wilson is struggling to hit well in rookie ball.    Fletcher seems to be a better fit at 3B?   Would they then entertain the thought of signing LaStella to a new 3 year deal after 2020?

A combo of Rengifo, Fletcher, and whatever is left of Cozart at SS in '20 could get it done. 

If Rengifo or Fletcher can't prove they'll be able to hold it down, you can look to free agency - Simmons, Semien, and Ahmed all hit the open market after 2020. 

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If Marsh is dealt, then you have one potential hole long term shortly in the OF, if Upton can't play LF successfully much longer and has to move to 1B in another year or so.

I'd prefer to keep both Adell and Marsh, because there is no one currently above A ball to replace an OF here.

 

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3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Marsh is dealt, then you have one potential hole long term shortly in the OF, if Upton can't play LF successfully much longer and has to move to 1B in another year or so.

I'd prefer to keep both Adell and Marsh, because there is no one currently above A ball to replace an OF here.

 

Walsh/Hermosillo. I think they can take the hit in LF for a couple years if it means getting a cost controlled starting pitcher. Realistically we aren't getting that without at least trading Marsh.

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21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Marsh is dealt, then you have one potential hole long term shortly in the OF, if Upton can't play LF successfully much longer and has to move to 1B in another year or so.

I'd prefer to keep both Adell and Marsh, because there is no one currently above A ball to replace an OF here.

I get that Upton isn’t a GG out there but he’s only 31 and still has pretty decent speed, without any leg injury history. And it’s LF. I see no reason why he can’t hold down a bulk of the time there in 2020, 2021, and 2022. 

Adams could move along quickly too. I imagine, conservatively, he’s at Burlington/IE in 2020, IE/Mobile 2021, and possibly SLC/Anaheim 2021. We’ve seen Eppler move guys much faster than that too. Knowles and Deveaux could move equally fast if something pops. And as @tdawg87 mentioned, Walsh, Hermosillo, or Lund could be in the mix. Martinez too. Or we find another Brian Goodwin via waivers or Cameron Maybin via FA/trade.

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We have the best player in the game in Trout. Would Arte really be prepared to go for it? Because of the way the team is currently constructed I think he’s going to have to get really close to the threshold. It’s not unheard of to have a huge payroll spike from one year to the next. 

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No Clod I’m simply calling you out for being full of shit again.  

You said in 2018 that Ohtani’s signing bonus and posting fee was basically part of the payroll.  

This year you know that Trout’s bonus isn’t part of that payroll estimate.

Then of course you have to post your love of all things Yankees. 

Keep on being that guy, you troll. 

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