Cole

[angelsnationtalk]

@totdprods question for you since you're good at this. Let's reopen the Thor discussion. Does his price drop a little in the offseason? Tell me the package you think it would take.

Thor has great velocity, cost controlled for 2020/2021 then could be extended with money we get back when Pujols leaves. Fits well with Eppler's likings for high velo guys and could slot behind Cole. It checks off everything Eppler wants except for asking price.

One downside is Thor and Cole have similar offerings at similar speeds so it might help to not have them go back to back

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

42 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

The Astros have money. Greinke is only going to be there for two more seasons. Verlander is getting older. They’ll try to keep Cole in Houston. 

The people around the Astros would be pretty surprised if they re-signed Cole. 

[Dick Enberg]

4 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

I see Cole getting over 30M AAV. I think you guys are severely underestimating his value. He's a LOT better than Corbin.

I could see him getting 7 years at 220m. so risky, but never know, he could be the next Verlander and pitch well into his late 30's

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

@totdprods question for you since you're good at this. Let's reopen the Thor discussion. Does his price drop a little in the offseason? Tell me the package you think it would take.

Thor has great velocity, cost controlled for 2020/2021 then could be extended with money we get back when Pujols leaves. Fits well with Eppler's likings for high velo guys and could slot behind Cole. It checks off everything Eppler wants except for asking price.

One downside is Thor and Cole have similar offerings at similar speeds so it might help to not have them go back to back

The Mets are playing so good since acquiring Stroman, and were so aggressive last winter, I expect they'll keep Thor and try to contend in '20, especially since no other team has really taken a step forward into dominating their division. 
And even if they do make him available, he's now pitching well enough to justify the high price he had in July, when he still had some durability concerns. 

It starts with our two best prospects not named Adell, in my mind. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

Just now, Dick Enberg said:

I could see him getting 7 years at 220m. so risky, but never know, he could be the next Verlander and pitch well into his late 30's

Have you guys not seen the direction of the free agent market the last few years?

[Make Angels Great Again]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Have you guys not seen the direction of the free agent market the last few years?

 

Yeah, but Cole isn't your typical free agent. He's a legit frontline starter. There's less risk involved with him, so I think teams are going to be more willing to open up the bank.

You can't say that the free agent market is trending down and apply it to everything when Harper and Machado just got deals over 300M.

[Make Angels Great Again]

And honestly, a Scherzer comp is fair for Cole if that's the direction Boras wants to take.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Just now, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Yeah, but Cole isn't your typical free agent. He's a legit frontline starter. There's less risk involved with him, so I think teams are going to be more willing to open up the bank.

You can't say that the free agent market is trending down and apply it to everything when Harper and Machado just got deals over 300M.

Harper had to wait until March to get an AAV of $25M and he’s an everyday player who was 26. Machado was also an everyday player who was 26 and he waited till March to an AAV of $30. 

Hard to believe Cole could crack $30M as a pitcher who is older. 

Also, there are more good SPs in this year’s market than there were last year. Eovaldi was No 2 last year and then a big drop off. This year there’s also Bumgarner and Ryu and a lot more 2-3 types. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

And honestly, a Scherzer comp is fair for Cole if that's the direction Boras wants to take.

Uhhh no. 

[Claude]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The people around the Astros would be pretty surprised if they re-signed Cole. 

It’s going to be interesting how it all plays out. Winning another championship could be a game changer. That owner is a billionaire too. 

[Make Angels Great Again]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Uhhh no. 

 

Why not? Cole's career numbers are actually better than Scherzer's going into free agency. Also Cole's strikeout rate has skyrocketed the last 2 years. Cole is also a year younger at FA, and they have similar styles of pitching.

Cole:

Scherzer:

[Blarg]

I guess the big issue is timing of getting a deal done. If Cole won't sign early the Angels have to move on other targets. So it really isn't a Cole or bust, it's a Cole or whomever wants to make the deal early. 

[Blarg]

Just now, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Why not? Cole's career numbers are actually better than Scherzer's going into free agency. Also Cole's strikeout rate has skyrocketed the last 2 years. Cole is also a year younger at FA, and they have similar styles of pitching.

Cole:

Scherzer:

As Jeff stated, the contract length and dollar amount has changed as analytics set values instead of agents.

[Make Angels Great Again]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Harper had to wait until March to get an AAV of $25M and he’s an everyday player who was 26. Machado was also an everyday player who was 26 and he waited till March to an AAV of $30. 

 Hard to believe Cole could crack $30M as a pitcher who is older. 

 Also, there are more good SPs in this year’s market than there were last year. Eovaldi was No 2 last year and then a big drop off. This year there’s also Bumgarner and Ryu and a lot more 2-3 types. 

 

I guess we'll find out. If I were a betting man,  i'd put a lot of money on Cole getting over 200M at least in his contract. There's no way he's going under that, because there are a lot of teams that want him.

[Make Angels Great Again]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

As Jeff stated, the contract length and dollar amount has changed as analytics set values instead of agents.

 

Well yeah, I don't disagree with that necessarily. The analytics say Cole is better now than Scherzer was when he became a FA. And it's pretty much accepted that Scherzer's contract is WELL worth his performance.

[Claude]

2 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

I guess we'll find out. If I were a betting man,  i'd put a lot of money on Cole getting over 200M at least in his contract. There's no way he's going under that, because there are a lot of teams that want him.

Young 200+ innings and 250+ strikeout pitchers are very rare. He’s hitting free agency at the right time. 

[angelsnationtalk]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The Mets are playing so good since acquiring Stroman, and were so aggressive last winter, I expect they'll keep Thor and try to contend in '20, especially since no other team has really taken a step forward into dominating their division. 
And even if they do make him available, he's now pitching well enough to justify the high price he had in July, when he still had some durability concerns. 

It starts with our two best prospects not named Adell, in my mind. 

Damn so much for that fantasy. Marsh and Adams wouldn't fly

[Jeff Fletcher]

28 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Why not? Cole's career numbers are actually better than Scherzer's going into free agency. Also Cole's strikeout rate has skyrocketed the last 2 years. Cole is also a year younger at FA, and they have similar styles of pitching.

Cole:

Scherzer:

I have to admit I am surprised to see that. I guess my recollection is colored by seeing what Scherzer has done since his deal.

However, I still think there’s a difference between 2015 and 2020 and the comps to Machado, Harper and Corbin are more relevant. 

[Blarg]

What is kind of sad to see is we are talking about two guys that are supposed to be elite pitches and they have 3 complete games out of 382 starts.

Blyleven had 242 complete games out of 685 starts. 

[Dtwncbad]

 

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Have you guys not seen the direction of the free agent market the last few years?

You mean the market that pays premium for the elite and everyone else is gets what’s left?  Yes, I noticed that. Cole will get big money.

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Cancel 2020 -- Bleacher Report has spoken...

It's funny because it's true. 

[Docwaukee]

I would be thrilled to get him at 6/150.  

what do you think he's gonna get @Jeff Fletcher?  Less than that?  

[Jeff Fletcher]

41 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

 

You mean the market that pays premium for the elite and everyone else is gets what’s left?  Yes, I noticed that. Cole will get big money.

I am writing on the same topic in two threads so I cant keep track of which is which, but I pointed out that last year two 26-year-old everyday players got $25-30M AAV (Harper-Machado). 

Since Cole is older and a pitcher, I think he’ll get less than 30M. 

I think something like 6-170, which is still a lot of money, btw. 

[Mark PT]

15 hours ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Hi,

I have been reading this board multiple times daily for years.  I really want to express thanks to the many long-time contributors; particlary Doc, Second, TPod, and the many more who offer the routine contributions on the state of the farm; I have no other trusted source.

I have chose to write for the first time in many years because I quite simply don't understand the "Cole or nothing" mantra that appears to have  become etched in stone.  Let me start by saying that I agree that if we were to draw it up, Cole is at the top of the list.  The reasons have been discussed ad nauseum.  And I agree with most we need a 3/4 innings eater "in addition to Cole."

All of that said, I suggest we pump the brakes.  I get the whole "local connection," White, Sassi, etc.  But lest we need to be reminded he is a Boras Client.  If we know anything about Boras, we know he's going to holdout until very late in the process and likely take the largest offer regardless of location.  This leave Eppler, who I admire but also understand currently has one year to prove himself, in a very difficult spot.

Does he "plan" on acquiring Cole and proceed by adding that 3/4 starter, only to potentially be left out of the other top players available via FA or trade?  Or does he make a "best offer" and proceed with a secondary plan unwilling to wait around?

As a Laker fan and recently impacted by the KL debacle, I can fully understand why he would move on despite my desire to roll-the-dice and put us in contention in the most obvious way possible.

Am I wrong for feeling it's not a "Cole or bust" offseason?  Are people truly of the mindset our '20 season rests largely on attaining Cole?

Mike

 

 

I think it's not Cole or bust, it's more like Cole and two other starter and 2 middle relievers or bust. Welcome!

[Claude]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

What is kind of sad to see is we are talking about two guys that are supposed to be elite pitches and they have 3 complete games out of 382 starts.

Blyleven had 242 complete games out of 685 starts. 

Our entire 2019 staff has zero. We’ve only had 2 CG performances in the past 2.5 seasons. Those juiced baseballs are killing us.