In Defense of Eppler

[floplag]

24 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Except that other than Stanton, what huge money guy have they brought in recently?    

They aren’t totally the anti-Steinbrenner, but they have built something for the long haul (strong farm and MLB team).

It isnt about recent, its about totals.  They have huge contract on the injured list. most teams couldn't adsorb that and move on. 
They spent over 200 M in total, put that in our context and the difference is literally 2 stud pitchers and a playoff run right now.

[Stradling]

Also if Arte blew through his budget this past off season who would be here?  Harper? Machado?  Grandall?  They made offers on all the arms.  You don’t just say to Corbin, here’s $25 million more to play on the opposite side of the country than you want to be on.  

[Claude]

Just now, Stradling said:

Also if Arte blow through his budget this past off season who would be here?  Harper? Machado?  Grandall?  They made offers on all the arms.  You don’t just say to Corbin, here’s $25 million more to play on the opposite side of the country than you want to be on.  

We haven’t done a great job on drawing impact free agents. We signed Pujols and Hamilton and nothing after that. Ohtani was a gift because he didn’t cost anything. Upton was actually a Tigers salary dump and we were probably the only takers at that point. But other than that most of the big named free agents that usually come with big egos probably don’t want to share the spotlight with Trout and Ohtani. 

[tdawg87]

Sigh

[Fish Oil]

6 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Sadly, i think your profile pic might get ignored, so im bumping this

A sequel to The Shinning will be coming out soon  

[Duren, Duren]

The Harvey, Cahill, Allen fiasco really has the appearance of making  Eppler look bad.

Because they all were treated similarly with one year contracts and all had injury issues there was no secret it was a sign of desperation. Understandable, but also an indictment of not being able to succeed with other options. Promoting from within, trades, better signings. 

. Had even one of them done what Eppler had hoped then you can say the gamble was partially successful. But with all of them failing big time right from the start it made the moves look even worse. 

The one year contracts were the 'out' for the signings. But at best it still cost a lot of money collectively and delayed finding better longer term solutions. Not that it was easy of course, but those signings were a sign of failing to execute in other ways.

Overall I think Eppler is ok, but the jury is still out about whether he has the team on track to be what he hopes they become.

He has to be given a pass for what happened overall during this season because so many freakish and tragic events created unmanageable chaos. The same with Asmus. But next year is a chance for a do over and to be more accountable. 

[Claude]

52 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This GM has never acted out of desperation except possibly the Linceum contract.  He won’t act desperate this off season.  He will make offers based on what they feel the player is worth. 

Do you think Arte will ever push the threshold in the future. It seems like he leaves about $40M in the bank mostly every season. Could that money if being spent in recent years been a difference maker for closing the gap on Houston. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Do you think Arte will ever push the threshold in the future. It seems like he leaves about $40M in the bank mostly every season. Could that money if being spent in recent years been a difference maker for closing the gap on Houston. 

What about the other 27 teams that also didn’t exceed the threshold?

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

What about the other 27 teams that also didn’t exceed the threshold?

I'm not sure i think this is fair Jeff.  Do the other 27 teams have our resources?   Attendance?  TV contract?   Lack of debt? 
We dont have all the numbers so i wont speculate but i dont think its quite fair to lump us in with the 25ish teams that dont spend, when it would seem that we can, and have chosen not to till the time is right.
If we legit cant thats one thing, many teams do the best they can, but i dont think anyone here thinks thats factual for the Angels, do they?
Honest question, do you think this teams could reach the luxury tax and still be profitable?   Is 40 M make or break in that regard?

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Sigh

Yep, horse shit

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

I'm not sure i think this is fair Jeff.  Do the other 27 teams have our resources?   Attendance?  TV contract?   Lack of debt? 
We dont have all the numbers so i wont speculate but i dont think its quite fair to lump us in with the 25ish teams that dont spend, when it would seem that we can, and have chosen not to till the time is right.
If we legit cant thats one thing, many teams do the best they can, but i dont think anyone here thinks thats factual for the Angels, do they?
Honest question, do you think this teams could reach the luxury tax and still be profitable?   Is 40 M make or break in that regard?

Well considering the guy he responded to regularly compares us to the Yankees and Dodgers it’s all fair game. 

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Well considering the guy he responded to regularly compares us to the Yankees and Dodgers it’s all fair game. 

I think perhaps you missed the point.  Jeff asked about 27 other teams, all 27 dont have the same resources.   I would think we are in the upper echelon of that so comparing us to say the Rays or even many other mid tier teams seems a bit of an uneven comparison. 

[Torridd]

I agree that the original post was well thought of. However, I dislike that a whole bunch of name calling starts when someone disagrees with it. Eppler has done a lot to like and dislike.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think perhaps you missed the point.  Jeff asked about 27 other teams, all 27 dont have the same resources.   I would think we are in the upper echelon of that so comparing us to say the Rays or even many other mid tier teams seems a bit of an uneven comparison. 

Yea you also missed my point.  

[jgimondo]

14 hours ago, NrM said:

injuries should never be used as an excuse. every team in the league deals with serious injuries throughout the years. The angels haven't suffered any more than most.

Most of the pitchers you listed that we lost to injuries are garbage 5 starters. 

Correct look at the Yankees , they have more players hurt and are winning.

[rageous]

2020 is going to be a big year for Eppler.

It's his make it or break it year.

[Troll Daddy]

50 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This GM has never acted out of desperation except possibly the Linceum contract.  He won’t act desperate this off season.  He will make offers based on what they feel the player is worth. 

As a car dealer I bought cars at auto auction for many years.

There were cars I stayed away from buying.

There were cars I would buy below their actual cash value. 

There were cars I would buy at their actual cash value. 

There were cars I would over pay their actual cash value. Usually the bigger the overpay the faster it would sell and the bigger the profit. 

The FA market works the same ... the tricky part is knowing what player you’re going to over pay his worth for his services. 

[Claude]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

What about the other 27 teams that also didn’t exceed the threshold?

I’m talking about debt free Arte who gets 3 million fans and who’s team plays in a rent free stadium. And I wasn’t asking Arte to surpass the threshold, was wondering why he doesn’t get close to it. He leaves like $30M-$40M just about every season. I know it’s his money and maybe his yearly revenue doesn’t allow for maximum spending. Just curious about it. 

Edited August 5, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Jeff Fletcher]

24 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I’m talking about debt free Arte who gets 3 million fans and who’s team plays in a rent free stadium. 

As I’ve said many times, if you think the Angels don’t spend enough, you are free to think that. But don’t use the luxury tax as part of your argument. The luxury tax is set by MLB and its the same for all teams, so it has no bearing on what each team’s operating costs are. 

The Angels set their budget based on their cash flow and what they think is an appropriate profit, exactly the same way every other company in the world operates. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Honest question, do you think this teams could reach the luxury tax and still be profitable?   Is 40 M make or break in that regard?

Define “profitable.” Does that mean making $1 more than you spend?

Also, don’t forget that the luxury tax is based on AAV, not the actual money that is spent in a given year. 

[Claude]

So it appears that Arte is pretty much comfortable with a $165M budget for players plus benefits. 

So if Gerrit Cole asks for $24M per it’s going to be tough to squeeze him in. They’re currently paying Pujols, Trout, Upton, Simmons and Cozart close to $115M next season and they will still need more than Cole to fix the problem. 

[Docwaukee]

The yankee comps are funny.  They are good now because they were smart for a period of time between 5 and 8 years ago.  Right around the time that the Angels org was being burnt to the ground.  From 2013 to 2016, the Angels played in more playoff games than the yankees.   They're a different franchise with different resources and a different starting point to where they are now.  As @Inside Pitch mentioned earlier in the thread, if people actually paid attention as to how they got where they are and knew the history behind it, they would look a lot smarter.  

Most people tend to focus on what has gone on in any particular season without understanding the years and years of build up to that point so 2019 is a less than stellar optic for the Halos.  I get it.  Eppler's FA moves have been awful.  In particular for this year.  

But it's hard to deny that where they are as an org at this point is much much better than where they were headed when Billy took over.  Anyone who doesn't see that just isn't looking.  

I don't think anyone is contending that Eppler shouldn't be held accountable.  Just defending that he shouldn't be fired because he's made some recent mistakes.  Mistakes, that while looking pretty ugly on the surface for 2019, have no long term impact to the team other than not supplying a modicum of trade value.  

Take a breath and get a grip on reality.  Take a good hard look at where we are at relative to where we were.  

• The entire lineup is set for next year already.  A top ten offense than is actually top 5 when some changes were made (getting Bourjos, Bour, and Cozart out of it).  
• The farm system is better than it used to be on top of graduating several players.  You can't look at what the farm was last year to this year as the indicator of what assets this org has accumulated.  They went from worst ever.  Ever.  To currently middle of the pack after graduating 10 players in 3 years.  People who follow the farm peripherally only generally understand how it works.  We've already had 2 players from the 2016 and 2017 classes graduate to mlb.  Does anyone know how many players from the 2017 class have graduated to mlb and had positive value outside the top 10?  I am talking the entire draft btw, not just for the Angels.  One player.  And his name is Griffin Canning.  Does anyone know how long it takes for a 16yo international signing to make it to the majors?  How many impactful major league players are there from Eppler's first international class in 2017.  Oh and btw, he was restricted that year because of Baldoquin.  I'll give you the answer.  There are none in the major yet.  Not every prospect is going to be Jo Adell and make a beeline for the majors in 3 years.  Most aren't.  So while we're not the top 5 system that everyone wants us to be or think we unrealistically should be at this point, there's a ton of potential in the lower levels.  Far more than we've had in a long time and so 3 years from now when we're looking for the depth to cover injuries and poor performance, it will actually be there.  If it's not then Eppler didn't do a very good job and they'll figure out what to do next.  But any sort of final judgement on the farm system based on what you see right now is premature.  
• The bullpen is solid.  Better than it's been in a long time and on the cheap.  It also stands to improve because most of the guys are young enough to still do so.  Eppler will continue to pick his clean peanuts off the waiver wire but we'll also start seeing an influx of players from the minors as he's focused on volume from a pitching standpoint over the last couple years.  Something that may not translate into top of the rotation starters, but will ultimately lead to considerable pen depth.  
• The rotation has a ways to go but imagine a front line starter, another middle rotation guy and Ohtani on top of what's there.  Maybe that seems a little thin but we've already graduated 3 mid to back rotation arms and I would argue that Canning and Suarez have potential to be more.  You can't conjure pitching out of thin air btw, so the people who are wondering why Eppler didn't plan for injury aren't being realistic once again.  The currency to do so wasn't there.  

Eppler has put this franchise in a position where they have way more assets than when he started.  That hasn't translated into wins at the major league level as of yet.  There is an opportunity for that to happen in 2020 and that's where he's got his work cut out for him because that the final frontier.  Translating org value into major league wins without actually taking value away from the franchise as a whole.  Jerry used to focus on wins at the major league level while decreasing value within the org overall.  

This year feels like a step back because of FA failures and the fact that outside of Adell, we didn't find a couple other Adells.  To think that's realistic seems ever more absurd when I write it.  Maybe the org made less progress than in Billy's previous season but it still got better overall.  Not by leaps and bounds like in years past.  Keep in mind, that the better you get, the more difficult it is to get better.  

Maybe it all falls apart and what he's done doesn't translate into playoff appearances but based on the trajectory, that's hard for me to believe.  In the end, the realistic scenario is that it take a year or two longer than expected.  

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Towards the end of writing that thing I started fretting about the same feeling - that he "has to" sign Cole. 

But Eppler can't think that way. Sure, he probably really wants Cole and will do everything he can to convince Arte to open the purse-strings. As I said, it probably will cost around 6/$180M, but it also could cost 7/$210M - like Price, and that isn't looking so good. 

I think the plan is simply this: "Sign or trade for the two best starters we can."

It is really that simple.

They've got some useful starters in-house, but not enough to seriously contend in 2020-22ish. If he misses out this time around, there are a few pitchers next year, but less than this offseason. I think his best bet is to sign who he can this offseason, see how the in-house guys develop, and re-consider next offseason.

 

He HAS to NO longer look for one year stop gap starting pitching.   He just HAS to stop that.   It's been an abysmal failure, although really the only true one.   

[Lou]

It's as if some of you don't follow the team at all. 

[Angel Oracle]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, Cole fits perfectly - but again, Eppler can't have the attitude of "Cole or bust." He has to have several contingency plans. Or to put it another way, I think he has three basic plans:

1. Sign Cole and another starter. Ideally that second starter would be a Wheeler or Odorizzi, but he probably can't afford Cole and one of those ~$15M guys. 

2. Sign two of the #2-3 types. Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Porcello, Hamels, etc.

3. Bargain hunt (again), and hope for the best with Ohtani & company, and that at least one or two of Canning, Suarez, Soriano, C Rodriguez etc become legit #2s or better.

 

If neither #1 or #2 comes to fruition this off-season, then something is amiss.    Either key guys don't want to come here anymore, or Arte can't stomach a couple of tax threshold seasons, or Eppler doesn't negotiate well with big money FA's?  

Because all signs point to this being the one correct off-season to add those two solid starters, since most everything else is in place and the pool of FA pitchers thins for the next two off-seasons after this one.