In Defense of Eppler

[mmc]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Maybe. But I think we need that anchor arm. Cole fits perfect.

Problem is, aside from he may not come here, is that we still need, at least, a second arm to back him up.

[Tank]

39 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

Man I thought the Eppler Kool-Aid drinkers arrogance in the "Fire Eppler" thread was hilarious enough, but here they are one-upping it and pretending to be victims in this thread .  Can't make this stuff up.

 

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Maybe. But I think we need that anchor arm. Cole fits perfect.

Problem is, aside from he may not come here, is that we still need, at least, a second arm to back him up.

Yes, Cole fits perfectly - but again, Eppler can't have the attitude of "Cole or bust." He has to have several contingency plans. Or to put it another way, I think he has three basic plans:

1. Sign Cole and another starter. Ideally that second starter would be a Wheeler or Odorizzi, but he probably can't afford Cole and one of those ~$15M guys. 

2. Sign two of the #2-3 types. Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Porcello, Hamels, etc.

3. Bargain hunt (again), and hope for the best with Ohtani & company, and that at least one or two of Canning, Suarez, Soriano, C Rodriguez etc become legit #2s or better.

 

[Bronson]

I completely forgot we started off the 2015 season so good.

 

Man that sucks.

[rafibomb]

lmao Jeff Fletcher refuses to acknowledge the stupidity in the Fire Eppler thread 

[rafibomb]

10 minutes ago, REDneck said:

Valid points on both sides of this thread...also a lot of complacency!

You guys are like donkeys and elephants!

So here is the bi partisan opinion if Eppler spends his 5th year without producing a winner to some gradation than he should be removed or abdicate!

if the Fire Eppler thread appeared this time next season with the team struggling with a shitty rotation I would not have a problem with it. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Bronson said:

I completely forgot we started off the 2015 season so good.

 

Man that sucks.

Sadly, i think your profile pic might get ignored, so im bumping this

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Bronson said:

I completely forgot we started off the 2015 season so good.

 

Man that sucks.

We started off 2018 pretty good too. Trout had taken it up a notch; we had Upton; Cozart had a seeming breakthrough season the year before; the team added Kinsler; Calhoun hadn't tanked yet; Simmons had taken a step forward; and we had this new Japanese guy.

Pitching-wise, that young(ish) rotation was finally healthy, plus we had Ohtani.

But everything fell apart.

So Eppler inherited a disaster of a team in 2015 which was utterly ravaged by injuries. His first two seasons (2016-17) were just recovering and then building towards what looked like a return to at least goodness in 2018 - especially on the golden moment of signing Ohtani. But things didn't work out, and that led Eppler to do a patch-job, realizing that the time wasn't quite yet to go all in.

But I think this offseason is different. There's enough young talent that has come up to make investing in a quality starter or two seem like the right thing to do. I may be wrong about this, but it just seems like it is time. For one, Gerrit Cole is the best starter available this year or next. In 2021-22 there are a ton of top starters available, but they're mostly older guys. I would say he's the most desireable, valuable free agent starter available in the next three offseasons at least. And if I know that, major league GMs know that. Eppler knows that.

Or to list them out:

2019-20: Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Rich Porcello, Jake Odorizzi, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels, Alex Wood

2020-21: Stephen Strasburg (maybe), Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, Jake Arrieta

2021-22: Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Mike Foltynewicz, Chris Archer

Plenty of good starters, but given age and performance, I think Cole is the best of the lot.

[tdawg87]

6 hours ago, mymerlincat said:

Ok I laughed.

[ScottT]

The Yankees have gotten pretty lucky. Cameron Maybin.  Michael Taychman. Etc

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yankees have been able to survive with a ton of injuries. They’re missing a lot of starters. They play in the AL East which is not easy. 

For four years (2013-2016) the Yankees finished the season with mediocre records despite having a payroll of over 200 million dollars.  The depth enjoyed today by the Yankees goes back to these lean years when they were rebuilding their farm.  Add in some very favorable trades (i.e. Stanton) and some luck, and you have a team that can withstand injuries.

[Claude]

57 minutes ago, eligrba said:

For four years (2013-2016) the Yankees finished the season with mediocre records despite having a payroll of over 200 million dollars.  The depth enjoyed today by the Yankees goes back to these lean years when they were rebuilding their farm.  Add in some very favorable trades (i.e. Stanton) and some luck, and you have a team that can withstand injuries.

They haven’t had a losing season since 1992. That’s on the ownership, farm, players, coaches and managers. They continue to put a winning product on the field. 

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Meh. On the one hand @Second Base, I agree .... the foundation is there. And we'll save 14 mill likely upgrading from Calhoun to Adell. (I feel like an assh*le saying that).

But the pitching isnt going to be easy to solve. We absolutely have to sign 2 impact starters. 

Easier said than done...

But were still in better shape than some on here want to think

The subtle difference between simple and easy. Life can be very simple sometimes, but very rarely is it ever easy. Eppler's job this winter will be very simple. I don't know if it will be easy it not.

[yamsi12]

Sign Cole, sign Madbum. Pray their arms don’t fall off.

 

[eligrba]

13 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

They haven’t had a losing season since 1992. That’s on the ownership, farm, players, coaches and managers. They continue to put a winning product on the field. 

I agree that they have put a winning product on the field but at a pretty high payroll, because of their revenue stream.  I don't think the Yankee comparison is a fair comparison because of the different economic realities.  I am more frustrated that the majority of free agents that the Angels have signed have been horrific, not just bad but horrifically bad.  Some of them have been so bad that they are no longer playing.  I think that is the one area for Eppler the show the greatest growth.  He needs to be better at free agent signings.  They all do not need to be great, but at least major league average.  If the only measurement for Eppler's job was free agent signings, he should be fired.  In other GM areas I think he has done well enough to earn him some time to improve his free agent signing record.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Eppler has this team primed to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Let's not jump the gun and fire him before this team hits its stride, because then we'd have to go back to being a 78-win team like we were before Eppler got here. 

[Angel Oracle]

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Yankees comps would make a lot more sense if they were fielding a team similar to the Angels..  They werent.   

The Yankees weren't trying to dig themselves out of a hole created by a near decade of mismanagement.  The Yankees went into the season  with a significantly better/deeper team than the Angels.   It's a testament to the job Cashman had already done.

Three years from now I'm hoping the Angels are as well positioned as the 2019 Yankees were.

And remember who understudied to Cashman before coming here almost 4 years ago.   A plan is in place here, and bringing in two SOLID starters is one of the last steps in the rebuild.

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yankees have been able to survive with a ton of injuries. They’re missing a lot of starters. They play in the AL East which is not easy. 

The Yankees have no budget, they dont really count in any of these discussions. 

[floplag]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

If you don’t want to read the many words to follow, skim down to the “TLDR” version. Thanks in advance for the snarky comment(s) about how long this is. You're funny.

IN DEFENSE OF EPPLER

I don’t consider myself an Eppler apologist, but I have been known to make the case that he is, at the least, a solid and smart GM who is building a team that should be in perennial contention in the not too distance future. Yes, there's a sense that this future is not only always receeding into the future, but the imaginary construct of optimists, apologists and nutswingers. But in this case, the details do matter  More specifically, if you look at his four-year tenure, I think his approach has generally been quite reasonable, and for most of those years the team’s struggles were out of his control. Let’s take a look back…

2015: Dipotogate

If you remember, coming off the 98-win 2014 season, 2015 was a bit of a disaster. It started with the Angels trading busted free agent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers. What followed was an escalation of tensions between GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia, resulting in Dipoto quitting in early July. Despite that, the Angels were in first place into late July, with a season best record of 54-40 on July 22. But they proceeded to go on an 11-26 run and eventually fell to 3^rd place, losing a wildcard berth on the final game of the season.

On October 4, the last day of the season, Billy Eppler was announced as the new General Manager. A little over a month later he made a big splash and first of three big signature moments, sending Erick Aybar and top prospect Sean Newcomb to the Braves for defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons, who has overall been better than expected, his recent injury notwithstanding.

2016: The Year of the Busted Arm

 If 2015 was a disaster in one way, 2016 was in another. First of all, the team plummeted a double-digit loss in the win column for the second straight year: from 98 to 85 to 74 wins. This was largely due to almost comically unprecedented injuries to starting pitchers. Tyler Skaggs had Tommy John Surgery in August of 2015 and was out all of 2016; in the first month of the new season, Andrew Heaney went down, eventually needing TJS; staff ace Garrett Richards went down in May and was recommended to have TJS—he opted for plasma injections but ended up getting the surgery two years later; in August Nick Tropeano also had TJS, and finally in September Matt Shoemaker was hit in the head by a line-drive. Furthermore, the decline of Jered Weaver reached the point where he could barely throw 85 mph.

Coupled with the fact that the farm system was in shambles—this was the year that Keith Law called the Angels farm the worst he’d ever seen—and the entire organization was in crisis. The year was about trying to keep the ship afloat as the rotation imploded…not much Eppler could do about it. His task was merely to keep the ship from sinking further, or to mix metaphors, stop the bleeding.

2017: Transition, Part 1

Eppler’s 2016-17 offseason was quite modest, bringing in mediocre players like Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Luis Valbuena, Martin Maldonado, Cameron Maybin, and Yusmeiro Petit to plug holes in the roster – no major free agents or trades, no real attempt to push the team into contention. Perhaps after a 74-88 season and a questionable but talented starting rotation, Eppler realized that 2017 could be nothing more or less than a transitional, rebuilding year. And so it was, with the Angels finishing 80-82. The core young rotation that was projected as the “rotation of the future”—Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Heaney, Tropeano—started a mere total of 41 games.

Even Trout got injured, messing up his thumb on a freak accident, sliding into second base. Albert Pujols’ decline continued as he had one of the thirty worst seasons by fWAR over the last 50 years (#26 out of 7,002 qualifying seasons, 1970-2019).

The one bright spot for the year was trading for Justin Upton for virtually nothing, prospect Grayson Long (who has since retired). There were also glimmerings that the farm was starting to improve; the Angels got their best draft pick in years in Jo Adell, thanks to that 74-88 record the previous season.

2018: Back to Conten…I mean, Transition, Part 2

Eppler had his second of three signature moments on December 9, 2017, when he convinced Japanese mega-star, Shohei Ohtani, to sign with the Angels. After the injuries of the previous couple years, it felt like a gift from the gods. Seemingly taking this as a sign that the Angels could be legit contenders in 2018, Eppler bolstered the lineup by trading for Ian Kinsler and signing Zack Cozart, who was coming off a breakthrough year with the bat.

With a lineup centered on Trout and Upton, but with a solid complementary cast of Ohtani, Pujols, Simmons, Kinsler, Cozart, Calhoun, and Maldonado, and a rotation of Ohtani, Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, and Tropeano all healthy or coming back, the Angels were legitimate contenders entering the season. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, quite a bit. The lineup was a mixed bag, but yielded disappointing seasons from Pujols, Cozart and Calhoun in particular. The rotation, once again, was in shambles. Shoemaker was never really healthy and started only 7 games. Ohtani started having arm issues and was shelved after his June 6 start. He pitched again in September and then reinjured his arm, requiring Tommy John surgery.

Disaster struck in July as Garret Richards went down with “right forearm irritation,” leading to Tommy John Surgery. The pitcher that was meant to inherit the role of Angels ace from Jered Weaver had pitched his last game as an Angel.

Andrew Heaney had a solid, healthy year, and Jaime Barria was a bit of a savior, but overall it was another disappointing year, a second 80-82 record in a row.

2019: Towards a Wildca…I mean, Transition, Part 3

OK, take two. 2018 was supposed to be a resurgence to contention, and so it was with this year, or at least the hope was that if things went right, the Angels could nab a wildcard berth. First of all, we all rejoiced when Eppler had his third signature moment, extending Trout to a 12-year contract. For those bemoaning the recent performance of the team, remember this: We have the best player in the game and the history of the franchise, and one of the best ever, for his entire career. 

There was general optimism entering the season, but it was tempered by both the last few years and the fact that Eppler patched the pitching staff with a series of high-risk, high-reward—but one year—free agents in Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Cody Allen, and Luis Garcia. Couple those pitchers with the lineup improvements---a group of role players and fringers starters in Tommy La Stella, Brian Goodwin, Kevan Smith, Jonathan Lucroy, Justin Bour, and Peter Bourjos--and it was clear that 2019 was to be another year like 2017: patching the ship so it doesn't sink, hoping that maybe if everything goes right the Angels earn a wildcard berth, but without the hopes of legit contention that was felt before 2018.

Eppler's moves did yield pleasant surprises in La Stella, Goodwin, and Smith. La Stella was a bonafide star for half the year and Goodwin a solid fill-in while Upton recovered.  Trout has continued being Trout, probably en route to his third MVP season.

But overall the season has been disappointing. Through August 4^th they’re once again a game below .500. But unlike 2016-18, this feels at least partially on Eppler. Despite a couple standout acquisitions, Eppler's moves did nothing to improve the team. Consider that the four pitchers mentioned above plus Bourjos, Bour and Lucroy has yielded a -3.0 WAR…for almost $40 million. Add in Cozart and the mediocre cast from 2017, and there's a reason for some concern about Eppler's judgement in free agency.

What to Expect from 2020

Looking at the last four years, the first three of Eppler’s reign were largely out of his control. They were riddled by injury and the organization was recovering from the Dipoto years. 2019 feels like the first year that is Eppler’s, and it hasn’t been pretty.

But given that it has really only been one year, he deserves a chance to course-correct. His free agent signings of the last few years have largely been poor to mediocre, but with a few bright spots. But in that time he’s signed no major free agents, no stars. That should change this offseason, as he looks at Gerrit Cole and other top starters.

This is a very important offseason for Eppler. He had the three post-Dipoto, injury-plagued years; and he’s had the one, “whoops, that didn’t quite work out” year. Now he has a chance to course-correct and take this team to the next level. He needs to be aggressive in player acquisition – in particular, and perhaps only, starting pitching.

In other words, the team is actually pretty good in both the lineup—which should continue to prove as the youth movement continues—and the bullpen, which is the best its been in years, despite struggling to keep up with the failing rotation. But the rotation has just been terrible. This makes things relatively straight-forward this offseason, both in terms of what Eppler needs to do and what we can judge him by.

Gerrit Cole is the big prize and my guess is that Arte will open up the purse strings and give him the 6/$180M or so that he’ll require. But even if they don’t get him, there are quite a few other options. The Angels will sign at least two solid starters of #3 caliber or better. 

Stay tuned.

TLDR Version

2016: Not his fault, injuries

2017: Not his fault, injuries, transition

2018: Mostly not his fault, more injuries, transition

2019: Kind of his fault, but signs of improvement to come

 

Well written and accurate, i guess my only issue is at what point do we hold him accountable? 
Hou isnt going anywhere not in the foreseeable future, so were going to have to make a choice to chase them, or not. 
WE all generally agree that the farm didnt progress as much as hoped this year, and most of its top guys are probably going to graduate next year.  
So when does that window of competition actually open, when do we expect him to actually do something?  I thought it would be this year ramping up to make a run next, but that seems moot.
No one is questioning the long term plan, please dont rehash all that, but a plan needs to have a goal, and end date,  and this one seems awful open ended right now 
 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

And remember who understudied to Cashman before coming here almost 4 years ago.   A plan is in place here, and bringing in two SOLID starters is one of the last steps in the rebuild.

Based on my conversations with Eppler, he is aware this is what he has to do. 

I have no doubt they will make a run at Cole and lots of other top starters. 

I doubt they’ll be able to afford 2 at the top, but maybe a top and middle, like Cole and Odorizzi. Or maybe the second is a trade.

[Angel Oracle]

8 minutes ago, floplag said:

The Yankees have no budget, they dont really count in any of these discussions. 

Except that other than Stanton, what huge money guy have they brought in recently?    

They aren’t totally the anti-Steinbrenner, but they have built something for the long haul (strong farm and MLB team).

[Claude]

14 minutes ago, floplag said:

The Yankees have no budget, they dont really count in any of these discussions. 

The Yankees spent $212M on payroll this season. Arte could’ve spent $200M and not pay any luxury tax. I don’t want to get into the finances but Arte actually cut the budget this season when they needed to spend more. 

[Jay]

10 hours ago, Second Base said:

I will say this though. If Eppler F's this up, meaning we enter 2020 with another Harvey-Cahill combo, that MFer needs to be freakin fired.

But not his fault...?

Obviously Eppler can't control the health of the pitchers. Half the staff is injured, the other half sucks.

On the plus side, I can see FA's wanting to come to Anaheim. The Angels have money to spend, and the GM is desperate.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Jay said:

But not his fault...?

Obviously Eppler can't control the health of the pitchers. Half the staff is injured, the other half sucks.

On the plus side, I can see FA's wanting to come to Anaheim. The Angels have money to spend, and the GM is desperate.

This GM has never acted out of desperation except possibly the Linceum contract.  He won’t act desperate this off season.  He will make offers based on what they feel the player is worth. 

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

The Yankees spent $212M on payroll this season. Arte could’ve spent $200M and not pay any luxury tax. I don’t want to get into the finances but Arte actually cut the budget this season when they needed to spend more. 

im not going to get dragged back into this one... i agree he could and that they chose not to since the timing wasnt right... my question is simply when will it be right, what are the criteria... all things we dont know but as a fan, it feels like wasted  seasons.