Goodwin

[UndertheHalo]

The Dodgers have found like 3 guys like that in the last 5 years.  Including Justin Turner.  Other teams manage to find good players that haven’t had a chance or hit their stride later for whatever reason.  It’s not uncommon the Angels just never figure it out.  Hopefully they finally have with Goodwin.  It’s necessary to come up on players like this if you want to win in the short term. 

Also.  Goodwin has been a solid player anyway in limited opportunity.  I believe his OPS+ was like 99.  Which is basically league average.  He was also a fairly well regarded prospect.  So that he’s playing well isn’t entirely out of the blue. 

[DMVol]

8 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I guess my point being since he's entered into his prime years, maybe Goodwin just figured this shit out and his talent & ability has finally produced results on the field.... 

He wasn't bad in Washington, as you say, so it's not like he came out of nowhere, with no history of success....maybe he's just refined things and is building on the success he had in Washington....wouldn't be a stunner, much more likely than a guy who hasn't produced anything previously...

[Second Base]

Quality defenders in the corner outfield are a dime a dozen.  Particularly ones that don't hit.  Kole Calhoun will not have trade value, not only because of his contract, but even if he made the league minimum, he still wouldn't hold value. 

The most likely scenario here is that Goodwin doesn't fall back to earth, but is sill competent in the outfield, and Kole Calhoun continues to do exactly what he's done this year, which is hit for power and play defense, but be a black hole in BA and OBP.  Justin Upton will return and we'll see Bourjos DFA'd and a 50/50 share of RF for Goodwin and Calhoun.  I would call it a platoon but it will be inconsistent in its premise.  It's a timeshare. 

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Dodgers have found like 3 guys like that in the last 5 years.  Including Justin Turner.  Other teams manage to find good players that haven’t had a chance or hit their stride later for whatever reason.  It’s not uncommon the Angels just never figure it out.  Hopefully they finally have with Goodwin.  It’s necessary to come up on players like this if you want to win in the short term. 

Also.  Goodwin has been a solid player anyway in limited opportunity.  I believe his OPS+ was like 99.  Which is basically league average.  He was also a fairly well regarded prospect.  So that he’s playing well isn’t entirely out of the blue. 

Yeah dude, we're due to have some fortune here with guys like Goodwin, as the Dodgers had with Justin Turner. There's several others like this in the league as well that when their area code changed and they got with the right coaching staff that pointed out a flaw, things took off. 

[totdprods]

46 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah dude, we're due to have some fortune here with guys like Goodwin, as the Dodgers had with Justin Turner. There's several others like this in the league as well that when their area code changed and they got with the right coaching staff that pointed out a flaw, things took off. 

I think La Stella has a chance at putting up a Chris Taylor season this year.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I agree with your point, but it's worth mentioning that slash includes his badass 1.000 OPS Angels career. Take that out and he's .250/.315/.454/.769, OPS+ of 99 in 500 plate appearances, and probably closer to what we should expect. 

Still, let's call that a .265/.335/.455/.790 and you've got an OF good for 25 doubles and 20+ HR, which is pretty damn solid in this day and age.

He's on pace for 30 doubles, 24 HR, and 72 (!!!) walks currently.

No reason not to consider his current slash line. His numbers right now are far more predictive than anything he did with the Nationals.

[zenmaster]

Is it really that shocking? His name is GOOD WIN after all. 

[T.G.]

5 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Is it really that shocking? His name is GOOD WIN after all. 

It's GoodWin. Just saying.

[AngelsFaninGA]

5 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Is it really that shocking? His name is GOOD WIN after all. 

Yeah it's no surprise that Jeff Badloss signing a few years back was destined to fail from the start

[Angelsjunky]

Goodwin was once a highly regarded prospect, a 1st round draft pick in 2011.  Guys like this sometimes have late breakouts. I don't expect him to be a star or hit .330+ forever, but he could hit .280/.330/.470. He's better than Kole Calhoun.

Here's John Sickels from 2013:

2) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade B+: Stellar tools and shows the skills often enough to make people drool, but he's erratic. Dominated Low-A but struggled after jump to Double-A, which was not really surprising.

 

[failos]

Royals dun goofed. It’s nice to be on the other side of the coin for once.

[Chuck]

 

 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

No reason not to consider his current slash line. His numbers right now are far more predictive than anything he did with the Nationals.

Both samples of data should be taken into account separately, pre-Angels career and Angels career, and then again collectively. His MILB data should be accounted for as well. 

A 1.000 OPS, even a .900 OPS, is pretty unlikely for him given all the pre-Angels data out there...I'm not saying it won't happen or can't happen - he's proven that wrong for 100 PA so far - but to call his Angels stint more predictive is a little ambitious. Bear in mind he's rocking a .400+ BAbip as well, so there's already a bit of luck driving his Angels stats. As has been mentioned already, Goodwin does come with some top prospect stock early on, so yeah, there's absolutely a chance he's turned a corner, but it's just a bit early.

I'd like to see how he fares once he plays some of these teams - Seattle, Oakland, Texas - for a second or third time. I still think some of this success is because he's simply sneaking up on teams - he didn't enter the picture until Opening Day - and coming into 2019 he wasn't seen as anything other than 4th OF depth. That's not writing off any work he's or the coaches have put in, or any natural development, just could be part of the reason he's doing so well. 

Now that he's producing and playing full-time, I'm sure some of these teams will start working Goodwin into their advance scouting and data and analytics and will focus on him more, especially once they've seen him once or twice. They'll adjust. Will he?

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Quality defenders in the corner outfield are a dime a dozen.  Particularly ones that don't hit.  Kole Calhoun will not have trade value, not only because of his contract, but even if he made the league minimum, he still wouldn't hold value. 

The most likely scenario here is that Goodwin doesn't fall back to earth, but is sill competent in the outfield, and Kole Calhoun continues to do exactly what he's done this year, which is hit for power and play defense, but be a black hole in BA and OBP.  Justin Upton will return and we'll see Bourjos DFA'd and a 50/50 share of RF for Goodwin and Calhoun.  I would call it a platoon but it will be inconsistent in its premise.  It's a timeshare. 

if Kole sustains his current pace vs. RHers (which is a 111 wRC+), that will have value to a playoff team.  But I agree that the halos would have to eat some if not all of his salary to even get a low level prospect.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Both samples of data should be taken into account separately, pre-Angels career and Angels career, and then again collectively. His MILB data should be accounted for as well. 

A 1.000 OPS, even a .900 OPS, is pretty unlikely for him given all the pre-Angels data out there...I'm not saying it won't happen or can't happen - he's proven that wrong for 100 PA so far - but to call his Angels stint more predictive is a little ambitious. Bear in mind he's rocking a .400+ BAbip as well, so there's already a bit of luck driving his Angels stats. As has been mentioned already, Goodwin does come with some top prospect stock early on, so yeah, there's absolutely a chance he's turned a corner, but it's just a bit early.

I'd like to see how he fares once he plays some of these teams - Seattle, Oakland, Texas - for a second or third time. I still think some of this success is because he's simply sneaking up on teams - he didn't enter the picture until Opening Day - and coming into 2019 he wasn't seen as anything other than 4th OF depth. That's not writing off any work he's or the coaches have put in, or any natural development, just could be part of the reason he's doing so well. 

Now that he's producing and playing full-time, I'm sure some of these teams will start working Goodwin into their advance scouting and data and analytics and will focus on him more, especially once they've seen him once or twice. They'll adjust. Will he?

You can't split them up, you gotta take them both together. He's not the player he's shown this year, but his performance thus far indicates that he probably isn't the same player he was previously. 

I know I've said it many times before but I like to evaluate players based on their last 200 consecutive, consistent plate appearances. Goodwin has over 100 so far this year so he isn't there yet, we still need to look back at last year to evaluate him, but I don't think going back 3 or more years is particularly relevant.

The BABIP will normalize over the next ~100 PAs as will his split distribution. He hasn't done enough to convince me but he is far enough into those 200 PAs that its hard to believe he'll finish with similar numbers than he had put up before.

[GrittyVeterans]

Hopefully he can be our Max Muncy. What I like about him is that he's walking a lot and he isn't striking out a crazy amount at all. I'd say at this rate Calhoun will be the 4th OF when Upton gets back

[Tank]

1 hour ago, zenmaster said:

Is it really that shocking? His name is GOOD WIN after all. 

so if Angel Hernandez married Brian Goodwin and they had a child, would that kid be named . . . 

 

Angelswin?

nevermind. 

[Tank]

i probably deserved a double face palm for that one, @True Grich.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Yeah it's no surprise that Jeff Badloss signing a few years back was destined to fail from the start

LB State fans, when the team was a lot better, used to gloss CS Fullerton's Goodwin Field as Badloss Field, since LB had good success in that stadium.  

[Angel Oracle]

47 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if Kole sustains his current pace vs. RHers (which is a 111 wRC+), that will have value to a playoff team.  But I agree that the halos would have to eat some if not all of his salary to even get a low level prospect.  

By July 1, he will be owed some $5 million plus $14 million ($1 million buyout) for 2020 season.

[Lou]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think La Stella has a chance at putting up a Chris Taylor season this year.

Taylor in 2019:

.171 BA

.263/.257/.520

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

You can't split them up, you gotta take them both together. He's not the player he's shown this year, but his performance thus far indicates that he probably isn't the same player he was previously. 

I know I've said it many times before but I like to evaluate players based on their last 200 consecutive, consistent plate appearances. Goodwin has over 100 so far this year so he isn't there yet, we still need to look back at last year to evaluate him, but I don't think going back 3 or more years is particularly relevant.

The BABIP will normalize over the next ~100 PAs as will his split distribution. He hasn't done enough to convince me but he is far enough into those 200 PAs that its hard to believe he'll finish with similar numbers than he had put up before.

It feels like we’re saying the exact same thing, but differently. 

I see three viable reasons for Goodwin’s 2019 output. It could be one of these, could be all of these equally, could be a combination.

• Goodwin’s own natural development/realization of potential - his prospect pedigree, solid MILB history, decent MLB history, and his own statements on offseason improvements all lend to this.
• New League/Opponent - we’ve always heard that switching leagues can be good or bad for players. It’s hard to prove this is 100% true one way or another, but it wouldn’t be a thing if it didn’t have some elements of truth. Being that Goodwin is virtually new to the AL, save for a short stint late in season with a forgotten ballclub and arrived with the Angels the day the season opened and wasn’t seen as much more than depth, there’s a good chance opposing teams haven’t bothered putting much effort into scouting him yet. 
• Luck - his BAbip is .404!

[totdprods]

37 minutes ago, Lou said:

Taylor in 2019:

.171 BA

.263/.257/.520

Hey, I never said La Stella or Taylor would go on to be good every year...just that I could see La Stella blowing up for one season-ish like Taylor did. He’s seeing the ball really well, evident of his high BB% and lowered K%, making really hard contact, lifting the ball much higher than ever...I think he’s bought into some launch-angle stuff or received some adjustments from Reed/Wooten akin to Calhoun, resulting in the power uptick. 

He might put up 20+ this year and hit .250/.350/.450/.800 and it would be as surprising as what Taylor or Muncy did. And likely not sustainable, as we’re also seeing with them now.

Edited May 1, 2019 by totdprods

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Hey, I never said La Stella or Taylor would go on to be good every year...just that I could see La Stella blowing up for one season-ish like Taylor did. He’s seeing the ball really well, evident of his high BB% and lowered K%, making really hard contact, lifting the ball much higher than ever...I think he’s bought into some launch-angle stuff or received some adjustments from Reed/Wooten akin to Calhoun, resulting in the power uptick. 

He might put up 20+ this year and hit .250/.350/.450/.800 and it would be as surprising as what Taylor or Muncy did. And likely not sustainable, as we’re also seeing with them now.

you didn't specify which Taylor season so I chose for you.

you're welcome 

[totdprods]

I meant to post this before Goodwin crossed the threshold last night, but going into yesterday's game, we had the opportunity to review Goodwin's production within two nearly identical timeframes. 
This is not meant to be a downer post - but does offer a lot of things to consider.

First is Goodwin with KCR 2018, second is Goodwin with LAA 2019:
27 games, 101 plate appearances, 25 hits, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 3 HR, 6 walks, 31 strikeouts. 
28 games, 100 plate appearances, 27 hits, 5 doubles, 1 triples, 4 HR, 13 walks, 23 strikeouts.

The difference here is only 2 hits, 1 triple, 1 HR, and 7 walks (and 8 fewer strikeouts) - nothing too dramatic. 

Yet the difference in the slash is tremendous:
KCR 2017: .266/.317/.415/.732
LAA 2018: .321/.414/.548/.962

Goodwin's BAbip:
KCR 2017: .367
LAA 2018: .397

Takeaways...

• This is a prime example of how it is far too early to read into numbers...Goodwin's slash is 230 points higher - yet he has only 4 more hits and 7 more walks. 
• His BAbip is sky-high this year - and admittedly was higher last year with KCR than I expected - but is definitely high enough to account for 4 of those hits dropping in. 
• Goodwin has more than doubled his BB% (6% to 12.5%) and dropped strikeouts nearly 10% (31% to 23%) which is definitely encouraging - as is a career high in line drive percentage (38%, career prior was 28%)
• Again - it's still too early to read into stats much. One game and a handful of hits can skew the data considerably.

But - @AngelsLakersFan mentioned he liked using last 200 PA of consecutive consistent playing time as an example - looking deeper, I agree that it is a good way to measure Goodwin here. 
Goodwin's Kansas City and Anaheim sets of data and their trends are actually much closer related than first glance - and are notably different from his Washington data. 

Goodwin's 205 plate appearances in the AL - consistent, consecutive, in a new league, reflecting the changes in his trends, produces:
.302/.373/.484/.856 - on pace for 32 doubles, 3 triples, 22 homers, 60 walks, and 175 strikeouts over 650 PA

But, there's still one red flag - that's still with a .382 BAbip - far above the 'average' of .300.
His BAbip with Washington was .304 - which resulted in a .246 BA there. 
Worth noting - it isn't atypical for players to put up above-average BAbip during their peak, say around .335, especially players with Goodwin's speed.
Turns out, Goodwin's career BAbip is now at .335

Ultimately - I think Goodwin is actually much closer to his current career line than anything we're picking from certain periods.
That line - .265/.334/.470/.805 over 606 plate appearances, capable of putting up 30-35 doubles, 20-25 homers, 50-60 walks, 150-175 strikeouts. 

Those counting stat trends also do not differ greatly from any of the other slices taken above...

Verdict? 
Goodwin is going to be a solid player when all is said and done. He's not as good as we're seeing, but he's better than his past has indicated, possibly even with the inflation it's seen with his run in Anaheim.
All of the data - Washington, KCR/LAA, or as a whole, tends to account for his growth and his inflated BAbip, and all sets of data still trend towards a similar range in counting stats.

We might get Goodwin's career year this year, and it really couldn't come at a better time.