Trout

[ten ocho recon scout]

Give him another 12 years. 

[Angelsjunky]

Sanity restored:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=33&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sanity restored:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=33&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

It happened pretty early this year.

[Jay]

he's pretty good.

 

[Angelsjunky]

^Yep. Usually it takes him a month or so. 

[Amazing Larry]

Not sure why they’re pitching to him right now. 

[m0nkey]

Is he good?

[gotbeer]

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sanity restored:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=33&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Just wait till he gets lucky and his BABIP becomes average.  

[Angel Dog and Beer]

1.571 OPS currently. Still had one more AB this game. Beast.

[Angelsjunky]

@tdawg87, don't look at what I'm about to write.

....

So far this year, Trout has passed the following players in career fWAR: Tony Gwynn, Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez, Graig Nettles, Craig Biggio. He's now tied with Harmon Killebrew with 66.1 fWAR, 83rd all-time.

Next up: Mark McGwire (66.3), Manny Ramirez (66.4), Tim Raines (66.4), Robin Yount (66.5).

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@tdawg87, don't look at what I'm about to write.

....

So far this year, Trout has passed the following players in career fWAR: Tony Gwynn, Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez, Graig Nettles, Craig Biggio. He's now tied with Harmon Killebrew with 66.1 fWAR, 83rd all-time.

Next up: Mark McGwire (66.3), Manny Ramirez (66.4), Tim Raines (66.4), Robin Yount (66.5).

You asshole I can't....god dammit

*Unzips*

[hangin n wangin]

GOAT

[101halo]

4 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

I know this isn't serious, but low Ks and high HRs will kill a BABIP. I sometimes wonder if they should include HRs in the stat.

I forgot about that quirk, agreed its dumb. Either take it out of numerator AND denominator or leave it in both. Probably the former. 

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

GOAT

That will depend upon how he ages, with the extremes being Mays/Aaron/Bonds on one end (really good), and Griffey/Pujols on the other (bad).

Right now Trout is at 66.1 fWAR. To keep up with being "best through age" he needs to total just 4.0 to surpass Cobb's 68.8 through age 27. For age 28 he needs 13.8 total for 2019-20 (7.4 per year) and for age 29 he needs 23.1 for 2019-21 to surpass Rogers Hornsby's 87.9 fWAR.

So, Trout only needs to average 7.7 fWAR over the next three years to be the "20s GOAT" (according to WAR). If he stays healthy and averages ~10 WAR, he could blow that out of the water and finish his 20s with 95 or more.

Let's compare him to seven relatively comparable players: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, and Ken Griffey Jr.

Here are those players in their 20s:

1. Mantle 85.1

2. Pujols 70.5

3. Aaron 68.9

4. Griffey 68.5

5. Trout 66.1

6. Mays 65.0

7. Bonds 64.9

8. Robinson 59.6

So with almost three years to go, Trout has already surpassed Mays, Bonds, and Robinson.

Now here are the other seven in their 30s:

1. Bonds 99.6

2. Mays 84.8

3. Aaron 67.4

4. Robinson 44.4

5. Mantle 27.2

6. Pujols 17.6

7. Griffey 9.3

Bonds is obviously an outlier, but warrants inclusion because his skill set is very similar to Trout's. Only Mays and Bonds had better careers in their 30s than their 20s. Aaron was almost exactly the same; Robinson was still very good but not as good. Mantle struggled with injury and was greatly diminished, Pujols and Griffey have been disastrous.

The point being, if Trout ages like Bonds or Mays he'll be the easy GOAT. If he ages like Aaron (about the same in his 20s and 30s), he'll at least be right there with Ruth and Bonds in a "Holy Trinity" of GOATs. If he ages more like Robinson than he'll be more in the second tier with Mays and Cobb, but still top 5ish. If he falls like Mantle or even Pujols, he'll still be top 15. If he falls like Griffey, he might still reach 100 WAR, which would put him around the top 20-25 ever.

 

 

 

 

 

[101halo]

10 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

Technically it isn't in the numerator or denominator. The problem is that HRs obviously still affect batting average, so it causes phantom BABIP-BA discrepancies.

Fair, I guess. It's still counted in a way that makes no sense. Either way, I agree with you. 

[101halo]

Only on pace for 19.4 WAR. Meh. 

[UndertheHalo]

[Angelsjunky]

I predict 10.7 fWAR. He's at 1.2, so only 9.5 to go.

[101halo]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I predict 10.7 fWAR. He's at 1.2, so only 9.5 to go.

I'll go 14.1 for 2nd best individual season of all time behind the '23 Ruth season. 

[Second Base]

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, 101halo said:

I'll go 14.1 for 2nd best individual season of all time behind the '23 Ruth season. 

You obviously forgot about Pud Gavin and his 20.5 WAR in 1884

[101halo]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You obviously forgot about Pud Gavin and his 20.5 WAR in 1884

I went back to 1883 on FG, is that BR? 

[Stradling]

Just now, 101halo said:

I went back to 1883 on FG, is that BR? 

Yes it is.  There were a couple of pitchers that year that were crazy.

[Duren, Duren]

I cringe when I see Bonds name on these lists. Sorry, there is a reason his numbers skyrocketed after his first few seasons. He, Sosa, McGuire and the others forever distorted baseball's sacred statistical foundation. Time does not normalize events and decisions that deviated from the standards of the era and created a two tier playing field.

If what they did is treated with historical revisionism then every other punitive treatment should also be forgiven. From Joe Jackson to Pete Rose. 

Hall of Fame revisionist voting will be the big indicator if everything is forgiven and sentiment trumps objective analysis.

 

[gurn67]

In 1923, Ruth didn't have Gehrig hitting behind him yet, but he had Wally Pipp & Bob Meusel in the prime of their careers. So far, the number 3 spot in the lineup behind Trout has been the opposing pitchers' best friend with a whopping .154 AVG & a .429 OPS.