The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's another group question to discuss: Which prospects do you see as the most volatile in terms of possible breakthrough/breakdown? Meaning, which prospects have the widest range of outcomes in 2019 - they might breakout as an elite prospect, or they might flounder or decline? My thoughts:

The obvious ones are Kevin Maitan and, to a lesser extent, Trent Deveaux. Maitan could surprise and be a top 20 prospect by year's end, or he could flounder. Similarly with Deveaux, although with less extremes on both end. Deveaux could develop and catch up to Adams and Knowles, or he could fade away into obscurity as a talented guy who wasn't as advertised.

Nonie Williams is another. At this point, with three years in a row stuck in Rookie ball, he's really just a fringe prospect. But he is, as he's been for a couple years, ever on the verge of a possible breakthrough. I don't see him ever being an elite prospect, but he could be a solid one.

I'll also mention Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones. Both are less volatile than the above players, but I think both come into 2019 with something to prove: they have great tools and have been strong performers for portions of their careers, but both put up relatively disappointing stat lines in 2018. Marsh started the year not far from Adell but was pretty unremarkable for the last two-thirds of the season. Jones was pretty mediocre all year in AA. He'll have to prove that 2018 was about adjusting, and that he can adjust to a higher level of pitching (AA often separates the boys from the men in terms of hitting prospects). Both could be stars or they could end up being merely solid major league regulars; I think we'll have a better sense of their future in 2019.

For pitchers, Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez. How high is their upside and can they actually start actualizing it on the field? These guys both have a wide range of possibilities.

Is actually actualizing like chasing chase.  

[CanadianHalo]

Anyone else see a ton of Torii Hunter in Jo Adell?

from his stance/swing to his overall athleticism I think they’re pretty comparable. Adell with a higher ceiling though.

[Second Base]

25 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Anyone else see a ton of Torii Hunter in Jo Adell?

from his stance/swing to his overall athleticism I think they’re pretty comparable. Adell with a higher ceiling though.

Yeah I've said that a few times. I think it's a very astute observation. I think Hunter was more of a ball player than Adell is though. But Adell makes up for it with tools that far exceed Hunter's. I think the end result will probably be a similarly valuable player though, someone that hits .270 or .280 with 30 HR's. Adell will steal a lot more bases than Hunter ever did, but Hunter's defense was likely the best of his generation in CF.

[halomatt]

John Sickels (now at The Atlantic) has Adell at #15 and Canning at #96.  Team "Sleepers" are Knowles and Sandoval.

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, halomatt said:

John Sickels (now at The Atlantic) has Adell at #15 and Canning at #96.  Team "Sleepers" are Knowles and Sandoval.

Pretty sure you meant The Athletic..  https://theathletic.com/808277/2019/02/11/legendary-prospect-prognosticator-john-sickels-joins-the-athletic/

Was really happy to see his stuff show up there and particularly this nugget.

So, what’s the plan? We will begin with a Top 100 prospects list then follow up with a supplemental list later in February. I’ll be doing a weekly column during the season, and there will be features for special events such as the amateur draft.

[halomatt]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Pretty sure you meant The Athletic..  https://theathletic.com/808277/2019/02/11/legendary-prospect-prognosticator-john-sickels-joins-the-athletic/

Was really happy to see his stuff show up there and particularly this nugget.

So, what’s the plan? We will begin with a Top 100 prospects list then follow up with a supplemental list later in February. I’ll be doing a weekly column during the season, and there will be features for special events such as the amateur draft.

Haha. Oops.  Yes, The Athletic.  Thanks for the catch. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46653/2019-prospects-the-top-101/

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

2. Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels

3. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

4. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox

5. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals

6. Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers

7. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros

8. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins

9. Nick Senzel, 3B/2B/SS?/OF?, Cincinnati Reds

10. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

[Angel Oracle]

LOL if Tatis Jr. makes like his dad, and hits two GS's in one inning against the Dogs in the future. 

[Angelsjunky]

2. Adell

56. Canning

68. Jones

94. Marsh

99. Adams

 

That's the first list I've seen* in which the Angels have five top 100 prospects.

*Other than ScottyAllen's Homer Boner List, in which the Angels have 12 top 100 prospects.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

2. Adell

56. Canning

68. Jones

94. Marsh

99. Adams

 

That's the first list I've seen* in which the Angels have five top 100 prospects.

*Other than ScottyAllen's Homer Boner List, in which the Angels have 12 top 100 prospects.

First, go kick rocks @Angelsjunky, I've never rated more than three of our prospects in the top 100. Second, even in my top 100, I only have Adell and Canning, which is less than pretty much every source so far. So much for homerism.

But I do believe that next winter, Adell, Marsh, Jones, Adams and Knowles will be in top 100, so I suppose that optimistic view of the 2019 development of prospects could be construed as homerism, if you're playing some mental gymnastics. 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

2 question?

Are you guys still doing the top 30, and if so when would it come out?

Next question, anyone got any report on the signee (Arol Vera)

Thank You.  

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

2 question?

Are you guys still doing the top 30, and if so when would it come out?

Next question, anyone got any report on the signee (Arol Vera)

Thank You.  

we did one in nov.  probably do a minor update prior to the season starting and when assignments roll out.  

Vera won't actually sign until Jul 2, 2019.  I presume we'll grab a few other nice intl prospects around then as well.  And we'll have a draft to rank at that time.  

I haven't seen a report on Vera other than the minor stuff Badler has mentioned.  smooth swing from both sides.  good zone awareness.  projectable frame.  

[Second Base]

42 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

we did one in nov.  probably do a minor update prior to the season starting and when assignments roll out.  

Vera won't actually sign until Jul 2, 2019.  I presume we'll grab a few other nice intl prospects around then as well.  And we'll have a draft to rank at that time.  

I haven't seen a report on Vera other than the minor stuff Badler has mentioned.  smooth swing from both sides.  good zone awareness.  projectable frame.  

Knowing absolutely nothing about Vera beyond the videos that highlight some of his upside, I'm gonna go ahead and rank him 1st and say he's better than Machado and ARod.

But really, based on industry buzz, it seems he will be the best international prospect the Angels have signed since Ohtani, and before that....I'm not sure. Segura maybe. Or Aybar. Most buzz since Morales. Have to figure next winter he will be somewhere between 10 and 20.

 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Knowing absolutely nothing about Vera beyond the videos that highlight some of his upside, I'm gonna go ahead and rank him 1st and say he's better than Machado and ARod.

But really, based on industry buzz, it seems he will be the best international prospect the Angels have signed since Ohtani, and before that....I'm not sure. Segura maybe. Or Aybar. Most buzz since Morales. Have to figure next winter he will be somewhere between 10 and 20.

 

I already staked claim on the Lindor comp.  I would rank him 2nd though behind Knowles who is gonna move up three levels next year and end up in AA with a preseason top 10 of the top 100 for 2020.  

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I already staked claim on the Lindor comp.  I would rank him 2nd though behind Knowles who is gonna move up three levels next year and end up in AA with a preseason top 10 of the top 100 for 2020.  

I will give you Arol, but If I'm not mistaken, I was the first to predict a breakout from knowles and a top 100 appearance. Though you take it much further and predict a 3 level jump and finishing the season in AA. Predicting an 18 year old to reach AA after such relatively humble beginnings as an amateur is too rich for my blood.  I think the swing and miss tendencies will prevent that.  But I do think he will finish at inland empire. 

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I will give you Arol, but If I'm not mistaken, I was the first to predict a breakout from knowles and a top 100 appearance. Though you take it much further and predict a 3 level jump and finishing the season in AA. Predicting an 18 year old to reach AA after such relatively humble beginnings as an amateur is too rich for my blood.  I think the swing and miss tendencies will prevent that.  But I do think he will finish at inland empire. 

I thought we were be hyperbolic.  I like Knowles for a breakout but I agree he'll end up at IE.  

Still like Marsh and/or Jones to make a move this year.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

https://thesportsdaily.com/2018/11/08/los-angeles-angels-2019-top-30-prospects-a1w1/

1. Jo Adell OF (age 19)

Stats: 290/.355/.543, 20 HR, 15 SB in 99 games at A/A+/AA.

Ranking Trends: Consensus #1.

ETA: 2020.

Comments: Despite a weak finish that saw his overall numbers fall, Adell was everything the Angels hoped for and more, playing at three levels as a teenager. Some scouts and analysts—and not just Angels fans—see him as being one of the highest upside players in the minors. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball, currently ranked #15 on MLB.com’s Pipeline rankings and #17 on Fangraphs’ The BOARD. There’s a real chance that sometime in 2019 he’s the #1 prospect in the minors. He’s the best Angels prospects since You Know Who and a probable future star.

2. Griffin Canning RHP (22)

Stats: 4-3, 3.65 ERA, 44 walks and 125 strikeouts in 113.1 innings at A+/AA/AAA.Ranking Trends: average 2.1, median 2, range 2-3 (eight 2s, one 3).

ETA: 2019.

Comments: Not bad for a first professional season. Canning utterly dominated A+ (0.00 ERA in two starts) and AA (1.97 ERA in 10 starts) before struggling in the hitter’s paradise that is the Pacific Coast League (5.49 ERA in 13 starts). Expect him to adjust in 2019 and be in the majors at some point. His floor seems to be that of a good mid-rotation starter, his ceiling that of a borderline ace. MLB.com has him ranked #72 and Fangraphs #90.

3. Brandon Marsh OF (20)

Stats: .266/.359/.408, 10 HR, 14 SB, 73 walks in 127 A/A+ games.

Ranking Trends: average 3.3, median 3, range 2-6 (2, six 3s, 4, 6)

ETA: 2020.

Comments: On first glance, a disappointing year – especially after a strong start in A ball. But Marsh greatly improved his plate discipline and showed flashes of better things to come. He’s a good candidate for a breakout in 2019, when he should spend most of the year as a Trash Panda (AA). MLB.com ranks him #98, Fangraphs #58.

4. Jose Suarez LHP (20)

Stats: 3.92 ERA, 44 walks and 142 strikeouts in 117 innings at A+/AA/AAA.

Ranking Trends: average 5.3, median 6, range 3-7.

ETA: 2019.

Comments: Like Canning, Suarez dominated in A+ (2.00 ERA in 2 starts) and AA ball (3.03 ERA in 7 starts) before struggling in AAA (4.48 ERA in 17 starts), but he did eventually adjust. Also like Canning, he’ll start games in the majors next year.

5. Jahmai Jones 2B (20)

Stats: .229/.337/.380, 10 HR, 24 SB, 67 walks in 123 A+/AA games.

Ranking Trends: average 5.3, median 6, range 3-8.

ETA: 2020.

Comments: See Marsh; not a great year statistically, but not only did his plate discipline improve but he adjusted back to second base. I wouldn’t be concerned until we see how his second year at 2B is. There’s a sense that Jones is teetering between a breakthrough to future star status and more of a average regular. #75 according to Fangraphs.

6. Luis Rengifo SS (21)

Stats: .299/.399/.452, 7 HR, 41 SB, 75 walks in 127 A+/AA/AAA games.

Ranking Trends: average 6, median 5, range 4-10.

ETA: 2019.

Comments: Rengifo was a revelation, one of the most dynamic performers in the minor leagues and probably the Angels prospect whose value jumped the most. At the very least he’ll be a very nice super utility player; he may also challenge David Fletcher and Jones for the long-term gig at second base as soon as next year.

7. Jordyn Adams OF (18)

Stats: .267/.361/.381, 0 HR, 5 SB in 29 Rookie games.

Ranking Trends: average 7.4, median 8, range 5-9.

ETA: 2022.

Comments: 2018 first round pick Jordyn “The Dunk” Adams held his own in his first exposure to professional ball. He seemed to be taking a step forward in Orem, hitting .314/.375/.486 in 9 games, before going down with injury. A very athletic player with a high upside, but there’s still quite a range of possible outcomes.

8. Taylor Ward 3B (24)

Stats:.349/.446/.531, 14 HR, 18 SB, 65 walks in 102 AA/AAA games; .178/.245/.333, 6 HR, 9 walks and 45 strikeouts in 40 MLB games.

Ranking Trends: average 8, median 9, range 5-10 (with three not ranked due to loss of rookie status).

ETA: 2018.

Comments:: Angels minor league player of the year? While a dozen or more prospects have higher upside, Ward might have had the best year of any Angel minor leaguer. He struggled at the major league level but deserves the benefit of the doubt. Unlikely to be a star, he could be a solid performer at 3B.

9. Patrick Sandoval RHP (21)

Stats:2.43 ERA, 29 walks and 145 strikeouts in 122.1 A/A+/AA games, including a 0.79 ERA in 7 starts in the Angels organization.

Ranking Trends: average 9.1, median 9, range 5-14.

ETA: 2020.

Comments: Acquired for Martin Maldonado, Sandoval is a very welcome addition to the farm system. Most seem to think he is a future back-end of the rotation starter, but the numbers alone speak of mid-rotation potential.

10. Matt Thaiss 1B (23)

Stats:.280/.335/.467, 16 HR, 44 walks in 125 games in AA/AAA.

Ranking Trends: average 10, median 10, range 5-12.

ETA: 2019.

Comments: Thaiss continues to improve incrementally, although perhaps not quickly enough to get excited about. The jury is still out on his future, whether he’ll be an above average performer or more of a fringe starter/platoon player.

[Second Base]

That looks familiar.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

That looks familiar.

Whoever wrote it sounds like a moron.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Whoever wrote it sounds like a moron.

Total homer more like it.

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Total homer more like it.

A touched a nerve, didn't I?

Seriously though, I'm less of a homer and more of an optimist. The two overlap but aren't quite the same thing.

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A touched a nerve, didn't I?

Seriously though, I'm less of a homer and more of an optimist. The two overlap but aren't quite the same thing.

All the same things I've said all along. 

[Angelsjunky]

I'm procrastinating a work project that I don't want to deal with, so thought I'd have a bit of fun. Here are my specific predictions for our top 10:

1. Adell - Has his ups and downs in AA before taking off and crushing it by around mid-season; is called up to AAA, loves the high air of Salt Lake, and earns a September call-up. It will become both very clear that he's a future star, but also that he needs more development.

2. Canning - Adjusts and is dominant in AAA, although with a Salt Lake-inflated ERA (mid 3.00s?). Depending upon the health of the major league club, he'll get somewhere between 5-15 starts in the majors. 5 if the rotation is healthy and the Angels just want to season him a bit for next year; 15 if the fit hits the shan. I could see him having a Weaver-esque major league half season.

3. Marsh - Big breakthrough. He'll dominant A+ and be called up to AA quickly, where he'll spend the rest of the year, getting better as he goes along. By year's end he'll have just about caught up to Adell in terms of development, although probably won't earn a cup o coffee until 2020.

4. Suarez - Similar to Canning, although might be up and down more. He's going to sneak up on a lot of people and be a good pitcher in the majors, perhaps as soon as this year. He'll be more than the sum of hhis parts, similar to Barria (although with higher upside, I believe).

5. Jones - A strong year, mostly in AA, but maybe slightly disappointing in that he won't dominate. Not as big of a breakout as Marsh. 

6. Rengifo - Stabilizes in AAA and starts earning time in the majors, perhaps taking over as the super UT by year's end. 

7. Adams - A year of transforming athleticism into skill. He'll show flashes of brilliance and star potential, but will be raw and won't be rushed.

8. Ward - I'd like to say otherwise, but my gut says quad-A. He'll be better than Wood/Cowart, but will struggle to be a league average hitter in the majors - at least right away. I see maybe 200-250 PA in the majors but mostly in AAA.

9. P Sandoval - Will have a strong year in AA/AAA and be in a similar role as Suarez and Canning next year.

10. Thaiss - I don't know what to think. There's one scenario where I see him taking a big step forward and being a candidate for the starting 1B job by year's end; there's another scenario, equally likely, where he never becomes anything more than a platoon player in the majors. I think 2019 will tell us which is the likely scenario and its about 50-50.

 

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm procrastinating a work project that I don't want to deal with, so thought I'd have a bit of fun. Here are my specific predictions for our top 10:

1. Adell - Has his ups and downs in AA before taking off and crushing it by around mid-season; is called up to AAA, loves the high air of Salt Lake, and earns a September call-up. It will become both very clear that he's a future star, but also that he needs more development.

2. Canning - Adjusts and is dominant in AAA, although with a Salt Lake-inflated ERA (mid 3.00s?). Depending upon the health of the major league club, he'll get somewhere between 5-15 starts in the majors. 5 if the rotation is healthy and the Angels just want to season him a bit for next year; 15 if the fit hits the shan. I could see him having a Weaver-esque major league half season.

3. Marsh - Big breakthrough. He'll dominant A+ and be called up to AA quickly, where he'll spend the rest of the year, getting better as he goes along. By year's end he'll have just about caught up to Adell in terms of development, although probably won't earn a cup o coffee until 2020.

4. Suarez - Similar to Canning, although might be up and down more. He's going to sneak up on a lot of people and be a good pitcher in the majors, perhaps as soon as this year. He'll be more than the sum of hhis parts, similar to Barria (although with higher upside, I believe).

5. Jones - A strong year, mostly in AA, but maybe slightly disappointing in that he won't dominate. Not as big of a breakout as Marsh. 

6. Rengifo - Stabilizes in AAA and starts earning time in the majors, perhaps taking over as the super UT by year's end. 

7. Adams - A year of transforming athleticism into skill. He'll show flashes of brilliance and star potential, but will be raw and won't be rushed.

8. Ward - I'd like to say otherwise, but my gut says quad-A. He'll be better than Wood/Cowart, but will struggle to be a league average hitter in the majors - at least right away. I see maybe 200-250 PA in the majors but mostly in AAA.

9. P Sandoval - Will have a strong year in AA/AAA and be in a similar role as Suarez and Canning next year.

10. Thaiss - I don't know what to think. There's one scenario where I see him taking a big step forward and being a candidate for the starting 1B job by year's end; there's another scenario, equally likely, where he never becomes anything more than a platoon player in the majors. I think 2019 will tell us which is the likely scenario and its about 50-50.

 

homer.  

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm procrastinating a work project that I don't want to deal with, so thought I'd have a bit of fun. Here are my specific predictions for our top 10:

1. Adell - Has his ups and downs in AA before taking off and crushing it by around mid-season; is called up to AAA, loves the high air of Salt Lake, and earns a September call-up. It will become both very clear that he's a future star, but also that he needs more development.

2. Canning - Adjusts and is dominant in AAA, although with a Salt Lake-inflated ERA (mid 3.00s?). Depending upon the health of the major league club, he'll get somewhere between 5-15 starts in the majors. 5 if the rotation is healthy and the Angels just want to season him a bit for next year; 15 if the fit hits the shan. I could see him having a Weaver-esque major league half season.

3. Marsh - Big breakthrough. He'll dominant A+ and be called up to AA quickly, where he'll spend the rest of the year, getting better as he goes along. By year's end he'll have just about caught up to Adell in terms of development, although probably won't earn a cup o coffee until 2020.

4. Suarez - Similar to Canning, although might be up and down more. He's going to sneak up on a lot of people and be a good pitcher in the majors, perhaps as soon as this year. He'll be more than the sum of hhis parts, similar to Barria (although with higher upside, I believe).

5. Jones - A strong year, mostly in AA, but maybe slightly disappointing in that he won't dominate. Not as big of a breakout as Marsh. 

6. Rengifo - Stabilizes in AAA and starts earning time in the majors, perhaps taking over as the super UT by year's end. 

7. Adams - A year of transforming athleticism into skill. He'll show flashes of brilliance and star potential, but will be raw and won't be rushed.

8. Ward - I'd like to say otherwise, but my gut says quad-A. He'll be better than Wood/Cowart, but will struggle to be a league average hitter in the majors - at least right away. I see maybe 200-250 PA in the majors but mostly in AAA.

9. P Sandoval - Will have a strong year in AA/AAA and be in a similar role as Suarez and Canning next year.

10. Thaiss - I don't know what to think. There's one scenario where I see him taking a big step forward and being a candidate for the starting 1B job by year's end; there's another scenario, equally likely, where he never becomes anything more than a platoon player in the majors. I think 2019 will tell us which is the likely scenario and its about 50-50.

 

Pretty optimistic. 

Adell - Pretty much what I see, except I don't think he will be a September call up.

Canning - He'll be a front of the rotation starter someday, but I think that is going to take a few years. He'll take his lumps first. 

Marsh - Bingo. I think he going to catch Adell in terms of development. He won't be his equal as a prospect, but every Jordan needs a Pippen.

Suarez - Left handed Barria. Which is a young back end starter. 

Jones - Huge breakout. We saw it in the AFL. Legitimate 20/20 starting 2B. Will arrive at the same time as Marsh and Adell. 

Rengifo - Good take on him. 

Adams - Will breakout because of a focus on baseball and furtheand development. Numbers will be inflated by pioneer league, which is always fun. Remember what that did for Cowart's stock?

Ward - I see a better version of Cowart. First round pick with a sudden breakout and he is major leagle ready, but that's where he stops. 

Sandoval - There's some untapped potential there. The numbers show it but the stuff hasn't taken a step forward yet like I think it will, like the Astros ought it would when they signed him for an overslot bonus. 

Thaiss - This is how I see it playing out. Pujols and Bour will both produce pretty much nothing. And Thaiss, will keep getting better and better in AAA. He'll take over 1B in August and will be halfway decent. But entering 2020, the Angels will want better than decent, and will be looking for ways to keep Upton's bat in the lineup while also playing Marsh. So Upton will play 1B half the time, and DH the other half when Ohtani isn't. That means Thaiss will be playing 1B the other half of the time. So he won't ever be a star, but he'll be a decent part time player.