The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Blarg]

The Angels picked 28 pitchers out of the 40 players drafted last season. It seems a little high but here is what was unusual about that draft, picks 3 through 13 were all pitchers. That was eleven of the thirteen top draft slots going to one position. 

Could you imagine a draft where the Angels take 11 catchers or shortstops in a row? No, not at all and yet this goes completely by most fans, how much of a concentration on pitching the Angels have invested in when in regards to draft currency. 

The first two picks were the super athletes in Adams and Johnson but then the draft completely steered away from fielders. The last part of the draft seemed to be to fill roles so there was at least someone to take a position on the rookie ball squad but only 10 position players were taken after round 2.  

Pitching, pitching, more pitching is what the 2018 draft was about. I can almost see the logic, the best athletes are gone in the first 3 rounds and the best arms in those rounds still have pitcher volatility and durability issues so stack the best chance to make the majors quickly and develop the arms in the minors at a pace that their arms will stay attached.

If you draw a pitcher in the first round, like Canning, you still have to invest time to bring him up ready to face MLB talent and hold up for an entire season. That is not going to pump talent into the organization fast enough. That is the reason for the one year pitching contracts this season, the previous drafts can't provide pitching as fast as position players using the metrics that Eppler's team has committed to.   

I think the next draft is more balanced. They have flooded the minors with arms, now it will be about long term balance and drafting with the plan to have backups for all positions as the first draft starts to hit late arbitration. And as much as everyone hates the idea, this draft may just be looking at catching as one of their top four picks and subsequent late drafts. It is still a position the Angels are thin at. 

[Docwaukee]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Alright, here's a random prospects topic. What's your 2019 draft strategy? Who do you target? Eppler seems to like to go for high ceiling, super athletes, but given the farm's wealth of such players, especially in the outfield, I wouldn't be surprised to see him target more select groups: namely, pick the best pitcher and/or best catcher, depending upon who is available. If no pitchers or catchers standout, he'll probably go best corner infield bat, and then finally best athlete (probably OF/middle infield). Just a hunch.

good topic.  

I think they're going to keep doing what they're doing.  Trying to find the best athlete in the draft that's still available.  I think that's how you can still get a superstar when picking in the middle of the 1st round.  You're never going to get an elite SS or C prospect in that spot.   For them to drop to where we have been picking means they're not going to stick at SS or they have other holes in their game like a lack of power or mediocre hit tool.   You can always convert a guy into a 1bman.  I also think the HS position player is much safer than the HS pitcher.  

One thing we might start to see a little bit more of internally within the org are position changes.  At the very least I think we'll see some experimenting with guys in different spots once we start to fill the major league club and upper minors OFs.  We've already seen it with Ward and Jones.  

The other thought is that position players are more valuable in general.  You can piece together a pen off of waivers and minor trades or later in the draft no problem.  Then that leaves only five rotation spots to fill whereas you've got 9 position players plus a 3 person bench on your roster at any given time.   The truly elite pitcher is just too hard to find and cultivate which makes it a bad bet.  Throw in injury risk and it's a really bad bet.  

Eppler is very analytical and calculated.  I guarantee the Angels analytics team has parsed out every bit of draft history and settled on the uber elite athlete with good make up as having the best odds of being  an elite major leaguer.  

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The Angels picked 28 pitchers out of the 40 players drafted last season. It seems a little high but here is what was unusual about that draft, picks 3 through 13 were all pitchers. That was eleven of the thirteen top draft slots going to one position. 

Could you imagine a draft where the Angels take 11 catchers or shortstops in a row? No, not at all and yet this goes completely by most fans, how much of a concentration on pitching the Angels have invested in when in regards to draft currency. 

The first two picks were the super athletes in Adams and Johnson but then the draft completely steered away from fielders. The last part of the draft seemed to be to fill roles so there was at least someone to take a position on the rookie ball squad but only 10 position players were taken after round 2.  

Pitching, pitching, more pitching is what the 2018 draft was about. I can almost see the logic, the best athletes are gone in the first 3 rounds and the best arms in those rounds still have pitcher volatility and durability issues so stack the best chance to make the majors quickly and develop the arms in the minors at a pace that their arms will stay attached.

If you draw a pitcher in the first round, like Canning, you still have to invest time to bring him up ready to face MLB talent and hold up for an entire season. That is not going to pump talent into the organization fast enough. That is the reason for the one year pitching contracts this season, the previous drafts can't provide pitching as fast as position players using the metrics that Eppler's team has committed to.   

I think the next draft is more balanced. They have flooded the minors with arms, now it will be about long term balance and drafting with the plan to have backups for all positions as the first draft starts to hit late arbitration. And as much as everyone hates the idea, this draft may just be looking at catching as one of their top four picks and subsequent late drafts. It is still a position the Angels are thin at. 

I agree with this.  Another thing to keep in mind is that the strategy has changed some due to slots.  1 and 2 are the super upside guys like you mentioned.  3-5 are still higher upside guys but obviously a lot of that has been diluted by then.  6-10 are basically relief arms that can be signed for cheap to give more money to rounds 11-15 where they can take some chances again and afford to throw that extra money at some HS guys that may be tough signs otherwise (3 of 11-14 were HSers).  Then the rest is just filling the gaps with BPA until your last 5 picks are essentially guys who aren't really signable unless you end up way under slot on a bunch of your early picks and your 11-15 don't sign as well so you've got a bunch of extra money to throw at one of them.  That's a complete long shot of course.  

I think we'll take the same strategy again this year.  Flooding the system with as many pitchers as possible after the first couple rounds.  

[OCAngelsNotLAA]

35 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The Angels picked 28 pitchers out of the 40 players drafted last season. It seems a little high but here is what was unusual about that draft, picks 3 through 13 were all pitchers. That was eleven of the thirteen top draft slots going to one position. 

Could you imagine a draft where the Angels take 11 catchers or shortstops in a row? No, not at all and yet this goes completely by most fans, how much of a concentration on pitching the Angels have invested in when in regards to draft currency. 

 

Why compare a position like C/SS to pitching?  Instead, lets compare how many pitchers are on the 25 man roster to the amount of C's or SS's.  How many pitchers does the average team use in 1 game or season and how many SS are used on average?  If we were drafting the same amount of pitchers that we do SS we would either have way too many SS in the organization or not enough pitchers. 

[Second Base]

I think it would turn into a little bit of an embarrassment of riches if the Angels end up drafting another super-athletic OF. Even if they lose Mike Trout, and Kole Calhoun sucks and is gone next year, you're still looking at an OF depth chart with Jo Adell in CF, Brandon Marsh in RF, Upton in LF, Hermosillo as the 4th OF and not room for Lund, Adams, Knowles and Deveaux, at least not in the short term.

I like that they have high reward players on the infield like Maitan and Jeremiah Jackson, but I'd like to see them load up with a few more. 

And the previous drafts tell me a couple things about Eppler. First, he feels like he can develop good pitching outside of the first round, and second, he'll draft to fit the needs of the organization, like last year when he picked 10 straight pitchers in the third round on...

I'd like to see the Angels chase upside collegiate pitching and upside high school infielders in the next draft. 

[Angelsjunky]

Eppler's top four picks by draft:

2018: Adams OF, Jackson SS, Hernandez P, Bradish P

2017: Adell OF, Canning P, Pearson OF, Swanda P

2016: Thaiss C/1B, Marsh OF, Williams SS, Rodriguez P

So of the six first two picks, only one was a pitcher. Three were super-athletic outfielders, one a shortstop, and one a catcher that they immediately converted to 1B.

Obviously as @Blarg said, they're drafting plenty of pitchers further down, but not early on. 

I do agree that Eppler won't pass up a "super-athlete." But I do see them wanting a pitcher first, and choosing one of equivalent value over another outfielder. I mean, even if Trout leaves and all the upcoming outfield prospects leave via free agency, the Angels literally don't need another outfielder for a decade. 

Regardless of how they draft, they have clear organizational deficiencies: high-end pitching talent (getting better), catchers (pretty barren), MOTO corner infield type bats. If the choice is another high ceiling outfielder or a Thaiss-type first baseman, obviously Eppler will go for the outfielder. But if the alternative to the outfielder is a potential #2-3 college arm, or even a super high ceiling high school pitcher, I think he goes with the pitcher.

[ettin]

Pitchers are becoming more and more valuable every day so I would think the Angels would continue making them a priority overall. That being said the upcoming draft has interesting options and there are a decent amount of quality catchers so it wouldn't shock me to see them mix it up in the first 7 rounds overall with about 60% pitchers and other positions of interest making up the rest.

[Angelsjunky]

16 minutes ago, ettin said:

Pitchers are becoming more and more valuable every day ...

What makes you say that? Why would pitchers be more valuable than in years past? If anything, one could argue that pitchers are less valuable because they pitch fewer innings. I suppose the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world are even more valuable because they can still pitch 200, even 220+ innings a year. But 180 innings is the new 200. Consider:

2018: 13 pitchers with 200+ IP; leader 220.2

1998: 56 pitchers with 200+ IP: leader 268.2

So I'd say a 200-IP pitchers is more valuable, but the overall value is less--at least as a portion of a team's overall measurable contribution (e.g. WAR).

EDIT: Actually, 165 IP might be the new 200. In 2018, only 32 pitchers pitched 180+ IP,  whereas 53 pitchers surpassed 165...about the same number as pitched 200 twenty years ago.

[ettin]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What makes you say that? Why would pitchers be more valuable than in years past? If anything, one could argue that pitchers are less valuable because they pitch fewer innings. I suppose the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world are even more valuable because they can still pitch 200, even 220+ innings a year. But 180 innings is the new 200. Consider:

2018: 13 pitchers with 200+ IP; leader 220.2

1998: 56 pitchers with 200+ IP: leader 268.2

So I'd say a 200-IP pitchers is more valuable, but the overall value is less--at least as a portion of a team's overall measurable contribution (e.g. WAR).

EDIT: Actually, 165 IP might be the new 200. In 2018, only 32 pitchers pitched 180+ IP,  whereas 53 pitchers surpassed 165...about the same number as pitched 200 twenty years ago.

It is not the innings pitched it is the volume of pitchers that teams need because they are shortening outings.

If you used to get by with say 12 pitchers on the 25-man and say an additional 8 on the 40-man, nowadays teams are favoring carrying more on their 40-man rosters. That is more warm bodies pitching less innings overall to maximize performance in favor of "innings-eaters". This is compounded by the fact that pitchers are throwing harder in general and the corresponding rise of Tommy John surgeries and other injuries, which then requires an even greater supply of pitchers to fill up the DL-bound guys on the roster.

Your numbers prove my warm bodies point: Over the last 20 years the number of total starters with 200+ IP has declined significantly in favor of more one-inning or multi-innings relievers. The less innings being pitched by starters has to be made up somewhere and that is out of the bullpen. If overall pitchers are throwing less innings that means there has to be more pitchers available to throw across those innings which in turn begins to lean teams 40-man rosters more towards carrying additional arms.

Think you may have taken my statement in a different way than I meant it. What I am saying is that pitchers are more valuable because teams simply need more of them nowadays than in times past. Drafts will emphasize them more in totality. You see some additional evidence of this with teams experimenting with two-way players as it gives a tremendous amount of flexibility in roster construction.

[Angelsjunky]

OK, fair enough. I suppose it depends upon what you mean by "valuable." If you normally need three apples to get through the day but all of a sudden start buying small apples, you now need four apples. But if the apples cost a dollar a piece regardless, the four apples are "less valuable" because you're getting less bang for your buck and having to spend overall. But I suppose the demand for apples increases because people now need four rather than three apples a day.

Of course that assumes that there are a limited number of apples out there. 

Or does this analogy not work at all?

[Chuck]

Ranking The Top MLB Center Field Prospects, Breakout Stars In 2019

 

By Kyle Glaser on February 5, 2019

   

For years, minor league center fielders have been considered the primary source of all major league outfielders. Many corner outfielders in the majors were center fielders in the minors, and teams have long valued those with a center field pedigree.

That may be changing. The center field crop of 2019 is noticeably weaker than its predecessors, by a quite a large margin. Jo Adell and Victor Robles are two premium prospects at the top of the crop. After that, the talent level drops off considerably, with the rest of the center fielders either players far down the ladder with a lot still to prove (Taylor Trammell, Victor Victor Mesa, Jarred Kelenic), players with scary injury histories (Luis Robert), or players whose performances raise red flags (Corey Ray, Khalil Lee, Monte Harrison).

That follows the general trend of center fielders no longer representing the top rookies. The most recent group of top prospect center fielders to enter the majors—Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot, Billy Hamilton, Bradley Zimmer—have all largely disappointed despite flashes of promise.

There is considerable depth among the 2019 center field prospects, with many players who are breakout candidates, But until they actually break out, the year's center field prospect crop appears middling at best.

Rating: 2 out of 5 stars

1. Jo Adell, Angels
2. Victor Robles, Nationals
3. Taylor Trammell, Reds
4. Yusniel Diaz, Orioles
5. Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins
6. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners
7. Luis Robert, White Sox
8. Drew Waters, Braves
9. Cristian Pache, Braves
10. Daz Cameron, Tigers
11. Brandon Marsh, Angels
12. Julio Pablo Martinez, Rangers
13. Adam Haseley, Phillies
14. Kyler Murray, Athletics
15. Corey Ray, Brewers
16. Khalil Lee, Royals
17. Travis Swaggerty, Pirates
18. Estevan Florial, Yankees
19. Leody Taveras, Rangers
20. Everson Pereira, Yankees
21. Bubba Thompson, Rangers
22. Austin Beck, Athletics
23. Monte Harrison, Brewers
24. Heliot Ramos, Giants
25. Cole Roederer, Cubs
26. Kyle Lewis, Mariners
27. Kristian Robinson, D-backs
28. Antonio Cabello, Yankees
29. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates
30. Lane Thomas, Cardinals
31. Luis Alexander Basabe, White Sox
32. Jeisson Rosario, Padres
33. Buddy Reed, Padres
34. Connor Scott, Marlins
35. Jordyn Adams, Angels
36. Jason Martin, Pirates
37. Braden Bishop, Mariners
38. DJ Peters, Dodgers
39. Anthony Alford, Blue Jays
40. Ryan McKenna, Orioles

[Angelsjunky]

1, 11, and 35. Not so bad. By the end of this year that could be 1, 5, and 15 or so.

[Chuck]

Same article as above by BA was breakout CF's and guys that pose a red flag. (poor Dipoto)

Breakout: Jordyn Adams, Angels

Watching Adams this past spring at the National High School Invitational, it was easy to see why teams wanted to keep him away from the football field. He's already dripping with athleticism, now it's time to see how quickly it can translate on the diamond. Scouts have already slapped double-plus grades on his speed, which obviously serves him well in center field. Now he'll have to work to get stronger and make more contact. He showed well in his pro debut, but there's a big test ahead of him in his first full season. Adams' development might be a slower burn than other high-end prospects, but the reward could be tremendous. 

Red Flag: Kyle Lewis, Mariners

Lewis' injury history is obviously extensive—he's played just 165 games since being drafted in 2016—but the results haven't been there when he's been on the field, either. The plus-plus raw power he showed in college hasn't played since turning pro, and his speed has been diminished by the ACL tear he suffered with short-season Everett after being drafted. Perhaps now, in his second full season back from the injury, he can turn the corner, but there's still a long way to go to reach his lofty ceiling.

[Docwaukee]

Individual pitchers are less valuable.  Pitching overall has the same value because you've got the same number of innings to pitch every year.  You can find players in the later rounds to man the innings that the top and mid tier guys aren't taking care of any more.  Finding that guy who can still give you 220 innings is rare as hen's teeth and is a bad bet when it comes to draft strategy.  

The Thaiss pick was a Ric Wilson special and got him fired.  I don't know that for sure of course, but that's what my gut tells me.  I don't think Eppler will draft a future 1bman in the first round ever again unless it's one of the top 5 players in the draft.  

I actually don't see him adjusting his draft strategy at all.  He'll take the freak athlete regardless of position.  And I do think it will be a position player.  Most likely an OFer.  That's where I think the halos see the best odds in the first round.  After that, I agree it's all about volume for pitchers.  He's gonna get a major league reliever or two out of the 6-10 picks.  

[Docwaukee]

Another question - I thought that the halos used their 2018/19 bonus pool money to sign Maitan and Soto which means that when the new period starts on July 2nd of 2019 for 2019/20, they will have close to 5m again.  Is this correct?  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Another question - I thought that the halos used their 2018/19 bonus pool money to sign Maitan and Soto which means that when the new period starts on July 2nd of 2019 for 2019/20, they will have close to 5m again.  Is this correct?  

yes!

[Second Base]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Another question - I thought that the halos used their 2018/19 bonus pool money to sign Maitan and Soto which means that when the new period starts on July 2nd of 2019 for 2019/20, they will have close to 5m again.  Is this correct?  

That is correct.  So far, Eppler has spent that international money, and hasn't bothered with leaving it unspent or trading it away as Dipoto did.  2017 he spent big on Ohtani, Deveaux, Knowles and Uceta.  2018, he spent big on Maitan, Soto and Alex Ramirez.  2019, I'm guessing he'll be spending again as the Angels have done a lot in the past couple years to reestablish themselves a presence in Latin America. 

[Angelsjunky]

Worth a read:

https://www.halosheaven.com/2019/2/6/18212683/what-to-expect-from-angels-non-roster-spring-training-invitees-pitchers-catchers

I didn't know about Matt Ramsey; he looks like he could be useful in 2019.

I've had my eye on Julian Leon for awhile now. He's a sleeper, in my opinion.

[Lou]

^^^ uh oh 

[T.G.]

 

[Docwaukee]

[Second Base]

That kid is impressive on defense.  Better than Baldoquin looked. 

[Docwaukee]

first ridiculously unrealistic projection:  Francisco Lindor 

[Angelsjunky]

Here's another group question to discuss: Which prospects do you see as the most volatile in terms of possible breakthrough/breakdown? Meaning, which prospects have the widest range of outcomes in 2019 - they might breakout as an elite prospect, or they might flounder or decline? My thoughts:

The obvious ones are Kevin Maitan and, to a lesser extent, Trent Deveaux. Maitan could surprise and be a top 20 prospect by year's end, or he could flounder. Similarly with Deveaux, although with less extremes on both end. Deveaux could develop and catch up to Adams and Knowles, or he could fade away into obscurity as a talented guy who wasn't as advertised.

Nonie Williams is another. At this point, with three years in a row stuck in Rookie ball, he's really just a fringe prospect. But he is, as he's been for a couple years, ever on the verge of a possible breakthrough. I don't see him ever being an elite prospect, but he could be a solid one.

I'll also mention Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones. Both are less volatile than the above players, but I think both come into 2019 with something to prove: they have great tools and have been strong performers for portions of their careers, but both put up relatively disappointing stat lines in 2018. Marsh started the year not far from Adell but was pretty unremarkable for the last two-thirds of the season. Jones was pretty mediocre all year in AA. He'll have to prove that 2018 was about adjusting, and that he can adjust to a higher level of pitching (AA often separates the boys from the men in terms of hitting prospects). Both could be stars or they could end up being merely solid major league regulars; I think we'll have a better sense of their future in 2019.

For pitchers, Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez. How high is their upside and can they actually start actualizing it on the field? These guys both have a wide range of possibilities.

[Second Base]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's another group question to discuss: Which prospects do you see as the most volatile in terms of possible breakthrough/breakdown? Meaning, which prospects have the widest range of outcomes in 2019 - they might breakout as an elite prospect, or they might flounder or decline? My thoughts:

The obvious ones are Kevin Maitan and, to a lesser extent, Trent Deveaux. Maitan could surprise and be a top 20 prospect by year's end, or he could flounder. Similarly with Deveaux, although with less extremes on both end. Deveaux could develop and catch up to Adams and Knowles, or he could fade away into obscurity as a talented guy who wasn't as advertised.

Nonie Williams is another. At this point, with three years in a row stuck in Rookie ball, he's really just a fringe prospect. But he is, as he's been for a couple years, ever on the verge of a possible breakthrough. I don't see him ever being an elite prospect, but he could be a solid one.

I'll also mention Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones. Both are less volatile than the above players, but I think both come into 2019 with something to prove: they have great tools and have been strong performers for portions of their careers, but both put up relatively disappointing stat lines in 2018. Marsh started the year not far from Adell but was pretty unremarkable for the last two-thirds of the season. Jones was pretty mediocre all year in AA. He'll have to prove that 2018 was about adjusting, and that he can adjust to a higher level of pitching (AA often separates the boys from the men in terms of hitting prospects). Both could be stars or they could end up being merely solid major league regulars; I think we'll have a better sense of their future in 2019.

For pitchers, Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez. How high is their upside and can they actually start actualizing it on the field? These guys both have a wide range of possibilities.

I'll throw Jerryell Rivera into the hat as well.