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The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


Chuck

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10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Eric Longenhagen really doesn't think much of Kevin Maitan:

Halo: Kevin Maitan, destined for 1B?  and if so, is his bat enough for that position?
2:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Context-free evals by pro scouts indicate he’s not a prospect. If I didn’t know who he was when i saw him, he’d be on the Others of Note section on the Angels list and that’s it.

gave him a 55 when he was with ATL.  50 for the halos last year and wrote this:  

The Angels signed him for $2.2 million in December. Maitan doesn’t turn 18 until mid-February, rendering his poor performance in the Appy League pretty meaningless, not just because he was comically young for affiliated ball but because the complex is a great place for cultural assimilation if teams do it right. We’re still hopeful, almost optimistic, about Maitan (who is already working out in Tempe), and his tool projections remain close to what they were on last year’s Braves list. He likely ends up at third base where he could be a 55 defender with a plus arm. He could also have plus raw power at maturity and hit for above-average game power as a 50 or 55 bat. This all depends on Maitan remaking his body and swing. He’s just 17, has lots of time to do both.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

 

That stated above, it's hard to disagree with his current assessment.  Which goes along with his AW rank of barely cracking our top 15.  I saw a lot of him on milb tv last year.  He was an absolute butcher at SS.  It literally looked like he'd never played there before.  At the plate, he had his moments.  There's no doubt he's got tools.  It will be interesting to see if the Angels can extract them.  

It's so interesting how a guy can be the next Miggy at 17 and then be considered as barely on the radar anymore before he's 19.  In my mind he's still at least 3 years away from getting the 'bust' moniker.  

 

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10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

gave him a 55 when he was with ATL.  50 for the halos last year and wrote this:  

The Angels signed him for $2.2 million in December. Maitan doesn’t turn 18 until mid-February, rendering his poor performance in the Appy League pretty meaningless, not just because he was comically young for affiliated ball but because the complex is a great place for cultural assimilation if teams do it right. We’re still hopeful, almost optimistic, about Maitan (who is already working out in Tempe), and his tool projections remain close to what they were on last year’s Braves list. He likely ends up at third base where he could be a 55 defender with a plus arm. He could also have plus raw power at maturity and hit for above-average game power as a 50 or 55 bat. This all depends on Maitan remaking his body and swing. He’s just 17, has lots of time to do both.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

 

That stated above, it's hard to disagree with his current assessment.  Which goes along with his AW rank of barely cracking our top 15.  I saw a lot of him on milb tv last year.  He was an absolute butcher at SS.  It literally looked like he'd never played there before.  At the plate, he had his moments.  There's no doubt he's got tools.  It will be interesting to see if the Angels can extract them.  

It's so interesting how a guy can be the next Miggy at 17 and then be considered as barely on the radar anymore before he's 19.  In my mind he's still at least 3 years away from getting the 'bust' moniker.  

 

I'm guessing he gets a 45 this year. A couple things have changed: One, his defense is horrible - as you said - and he wasn't exactly promising at 3B. His bat still shows promise, but maybe not as much as a year ago and certainly not as much as two years ago.

I agree that he's not a bust and he's still an interesting prospect. As I said in the Top 30 write-up, if you wipe the slate clean and look at his stats for his age in 2018, he's actually a decent prospect. But we've essentially gone from "Miggy at SS" when first signed by the Braves to "Sano at SS/3B" a year ago to "Sandoval at 1B" now. 

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I just don't understand the dislike with Maitian, yes he;s struggles but he really young and competing against adults.

It has to do with expectations. A few years ago he was seen as a potential phenom; when he arrived at the Braves camp in 2017, he seemed a very different player than advertised and hasn't shown us anything to think that the initial scouting reports were legit. But as Doc said, he's still quite young.

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For me, it all comes down to my trust in Eppler as an evaluator, and the actions he took.  I've never heard of a GM chasing a prospect like that.  Farm directors, at times....if they really think the payout is worth it.  Scouts?  Absolutely.  But General Managers boarding a flight in the middle of a busy offseason, having a face to face meeting....not even bothering with a phone call or text.  Writing out a program specifically designed for him.  Coming with the "ok" from the owner to spend 2 million plus on him.  No workout session.  No BP.  No negotiations (that I know of).  

I've never, ever seen that before. 

Could Eppler have been wrong?  Yeah.  Could everything about the Angels action been simply poor evaluation?  Definitely.

But this was after his poor showing in the Appy League, and after the wight gain.  There was no way to hide his strengths and his weaknesses, and even after those glaring shortcomings, Eppler's behavior was still aggressvie. 

I think that Eppler thinks this kid is a future star. And I can see why.  While he is inconsistent at the plate, there are flashes.  He has really easy, graceful opposite power.  You can't teach that.  And when he squares up a pitch, there is a different way it sounds, a different way it jumps off the bat.  If I had to guess, I'd say Eppler and co. see something related to that, and feel like he can eventually be that guy full time, rather than the occasional glimpses we've seen. 

Having said that, I don't care how aggressive you are on Maitan, defensively, that kid is as much of a shortstop as he is a catcher.  He'll be a decent third baseman long run I feel. 

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39 minutes ago, Second Base said:

For me, it all comes down to my trust in Eppler as an evaluator, and the actions he took.  I've never heard of a GM chasing a prospect like that.  Farm directors, at times....if they really think the payout is worth it.  Scouts?  Absolutely.  But General Managers boarding a flight in the middle of a busy offseason, having a face to face meeting....not even bothering with a phone call or text.  Writing out a program specifically designed for him.  Coming with the "ok" from the owner to spend 2 million plus on him.  No workout session.  No BP.  No negotiations (that I know of).  

I've never, ever seen that before. 

Could Eppler have been wrong?  Yeah.  Could everything about the Angels action been simply poor evaluation?  Definitely.

But this was after his poor showing in the Appy League, and after the wight gain.  There was no way to hide his strengths and his weaknesses, and even after those glaring shortcomings, Eppler's behavior was still aggressvie. 

I think that Eppler thinks this kid is a future star. And I can see why.  While he is inconsistent at the plate, there are flashes.  He has really easy, graceful opposite power.  You can't teach that.  And when he squares up a pitch, there is a different way it sounds, a different way it jumps off the bat.  If I had to guess, I'd say Eppler and co. see something related to that, and feel like he can eventually be that guy full time, rather than the occasional glimpses we've seen. 

Having said that, I don't care how aggressive you are on Maitan, defensively, that kid is as much of a shortstop as he is a catcher.  He'll be a decent third baseman long run I feel. 

Is that where the Cabrera comparisons come into play?

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49 minutes ago, Second Base said:

For me, it all comes down to my trust in Eppler as an evaluator, and the actions he took.  I've never heard of a GM chasing a prospect like that.  Farm directors, at times....if they really think the payout is worth it.  Scouts?  Absolutely.  But General Managers boarding a flight in the middle of a busy offseason, having a face to face meeting....not even bothering with a phone call or text.  Writing out a program specifically designed for him.  Coming with the "ok" from the owner to spend 2 million plus on him.  No workout session.  No BP.  No negotiations (that I know of).  

I've never, ever seen that before. 

Could Eppler have been wrong?  Yeah.  Could everything about the Angels action been simply poor evaluation?  Definitely.

But this was after his poor showing in the Appy League, and after the wight gain.  There was no way to hide his strengths and his weaknesses, and even after those glaring shortcomings, Eppler's behavior was still aggressvie. 

I think that Eppler thinks this kid is a future star. And I can see why.  While he is inconsistent at the plate, there are flashes.  He has really easy, graceful opposite power.  You can't teach that.  And when he squares up a pitch, there is a different way it sounds, a different way it jumps off the bat.  If I had to guess, I'd say Eppler and co. see something related to that, and feel like he can eventually be that guy full time, rather than the occasional glimpses we've seen. 

Having said that, I don't care how aggressive you are on Maitan, defensively, that kid is as much of a shortstop as he is a catcher.  He'll be a decent third baseman long run I feel. 

I saw some of that as I mentioned.  There's definitely something there.  It's gonna be about whether he's able to consistently show it.  He's got plenty of time.  

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And I get why scouts thought what they did before.  Take the two biggest things wrong with Maitan so far.  1. His weight.  2. His swing.

Back when he was 15 years old, he was thin, built like a shortstop and a rocket for an arm.  You could see him projecting into an A-Rod type body frame.  And the swing, built for power.  The perfect BP swing.  Against other 15 year olds, he was taller, stronger, more graceful.  He was dominant.  Made it look easy, and any shortcomings he had could easily be explained away by the fact that he was 15 and he could work those things.   The hype totally made sense. 

Fast forward and now the weight isn't as much of a problem as it was before, but it's clear that he won't be keeping an A-Rod body type.  He won't be staying on SS at all, largely because of the weight. And the fact that he destroyed fellow 15 years old when he was 15 says nothing about him facing 22 year olds when he's 18.  He's struggled.  So everyone being down on him also totally makes sense. 

But you have to figure he's going to normalize at some point.  Eventually, he won't be playing against guys 4 years older all the time.  Eventually after he moves off SS completely, we won't worry about the weight.  And the older he gets, and the longer he's been following a specific nutrition program, the better results he will see, hopefully.  And when you think about it, Maitan never should've been put in this circumstance in the first place.  LOUD TOOLS DO NOT EQUATE HIGH PERFORMANCE. 

Simply because Maitan has those loud tools, doesn't mean he was necessarily ready to be playing against more advanced competition.  If he was in the DSL in 2017 and absolutely destroyed the pitching there, would it prove anything?  What if the Angels kept him in Arizona, playing against all the recent high school grads and he hit them really hard too, just as he always did against age level competition growing up?  The inconsistent performance in Orem doesn't really tell us much other than the fact that an 18 year old kid was sometimes really good against 22 years olds, and sometimes not as good. 

Eventually, it will all even out.  My best guess is 2020.  He'll be 20 years old, heading to the Cal League where there are quite a few 20 year olds playing.  It won't be his first season playing full season ball which is usually quite the adjustment.  He'll be in California.  Nice warm weather, and hitter friendly ball parks, and he'll be reaching one of those critical physically progressive steps where he starts putting on a lot more muscle. I think Maitan will probably struggle with consistency at Burlington this next year, but will really start to put it together at the end of the year.  It won't be noticeable to most, and he won't be appearing on any top 100 prospect lists, and you'll still read all about how the star has faded.  But in 2020, I think Maitan is going to erupt and tear Advanced A Ball and AA to pieces. In 2021 he'l be a consensus top 100 prospect again and will make his major league debut at age 22.  THat's a pretty good outcome.  Not everyone makes their debut at 19/20.  Even the elite ones typically don't.  

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Kevin Maitan is 8 months younger than Jordyn Adams.  

Probably the best thing that could happen for him was to come off the radar a bit.   He's gonna be moving with other very talented guys closer to his age now.  Like Jackson, Adams etc. when those guys move to burlington at some point this year.  

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Kevin Maitan is 8 months younger than Jordyn Adams.  

Probably the best thing that could happen for him was to come off the radar a bit.   He's gonna be moving with other very talented guys closer to his age now.  Like Jackson, Adams etc. when those guys move to burlington at some point this year.  

Maitan against east coast high school teams would've been silly the past two years. I don't think any team would've drafted him as a shortstop. Still a first round pick, but probably as a 3B that will eventually move to LF/1B. Because of the weight gain he likely would've been selected toward the end of the round. Probably would've been rated on par with a player like Nolan Gorman entering the draft. Obviously Gorman has gone on a tear since being picked though.

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Kevin Maitan is 8 months younger than Jordyn Adams.  

Probably the best thing that could happen for him was to come off the radar a bit.   He's gonna be moving with other very talented guys closer to his age now.  Like Jackson, Adams etc. when those guys move to burlington at some point this year.  

I agree with your point and I don't think anyone has given up on him. But I think, and this is from actually reading the chat, it's a case of scouting more than the stat line. EL said his skills just aren't there anymore. I was a tennis player growing up and some guys would grow and never regain their coordination and timing. I think in this case scouting the stat line would be, he had some reasonable success for how young he was and expecting improvement. I think watching him play has given more concern about his future than his production so far. Some guys eventually get their coordination back, but a lot of them don't.

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14 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I agree with your point and I don't think anyone has given up on him. But I think, and this is from actually reading the chat, it's a case of scouting more than the stat line. EL said his skills just aren't there anymore. I was a tennis player growing up and some guys would grow and never regain their coordination and timing. I think in this case scouting the stat line would be, he had some reasonable success for how young he was and expecting improvement. I think watching him play has given more concern about his future than his production so far. Some guys eventually get their coordination back, but a lot of them don't.

I'm no scout but I saw a lot of him last year.  Of course it was via milb tv with questionable production quality.  I still see a ton of raw ability.  Frankly, like you would with any kid who was a first round pick that just finished his senior year in HS.  Because that's essentially what he was last year.   

To me, a ton of it is perception.   If he were just drafted, he'd have gone to the AZL and probably would have killed it and then ended up in Orem like Adams and Jackson did.  He'd be right where he's at for the most part.  A guy who's trying to find a way to get his body and raw talent to mesh.  But he wouldn't have the negative vibe against him.  

The one thing I still wonder about is his work ethic and coachability.   That's also going to play a big factor in his success obviously.  

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3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'm no scout but I saw a lot of him last year.  Of course it was via milb tv with questionable production quality.  I still see a ton of raw ability.  Frankly, like you would with any kid who was a first round pick that just finished his senior year in HS.  Because that's essentially what he was last year.   

To me, a ton of it is perception.   If he were just drafted, he'd have gone to the AZL and probably would have killed it and then ended up in Orem like Adams and Jackson did.  He'd be right where he's at for the most part.  A guy who's trying to find a way to get his body and raw talent to mesh.  But he wouldn't have the negative vibe against him.  

The one thing I still wonder about is his work ethic and coachability.   That's also going to play a big factor in his success obviously.  

Reports of his work ethic and coachability from Atlanta left much to be desired. But I think if you based my future earning potential off of my job performance in my first job at age 16, the reports probably would've been pretty negative too. That kid liked sleeping and hanging out with his friends a lot more than going to work and earning a pay check or promotion.

He left a sour taste in Atlanta's mouth, but it seems he's learned.

Reports from the Angels have indicated he's been nothing but hard working since he's arrived, and has been more than willing to adopt pretty much anything the minor league coordinators are throwing at him. Change your load, change your stance, don't swing at this, swing at that. Go out and do this, don't eat that....

We've seen his body shape change for the better and some flashes of the potential if he can make it stick. He's on the right path, he's just a long way from the destination, so people lose hope that he will ever make it, because so many others before him have failed.

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Any thoughts on Nonie Williams? He was a lotto pick with negative results so far: three years in Rookie ball with no statistical improvement. I assume the Angels send him to Burlington, though. Didn't he start hitting better in the second half?

Nonie confounds me, which is why I rarely talk about him. Everything about his skill set says he should be a great infielder. He's fast, athletic, intelligent, has a good arm and was drafted with insanely good bat speed which translated into power. Fast forward three years and he's put on a ton of a muscle and has a more discerning eye at the plate, but that's about all that's gone right.

I don't know where the bat speed went. Sometimes he's still a switch hitter, but mostly not. He still isn't hitting the ball. And the glove, arm and athleticism were nullified by the fact that his footwork never caught on, so now he's an outfielder. 

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2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Nonie confounds me, which is why I rarely talk about him. Everything about his skill set says he should be a great infielder. He's fast, athletic, intelligent, has a good arm and was drafted with insanely good bat speed which translated into power. Fast forward three years and he's put on a ton of a muscle and has a more discerning eye at the plate, but that's about all that's gone right.

I don't know where the bat speed went. Sometimes he's still a switch hitter, but mostly not. He still isn't hitting the ball. And the glove, arm and athleticism were nullified by the fact that his footwork never caught on, so now he's an outfielder. 

he hasn't switch hit in two years.  All righty.  He has 275 plate appearances as a pro facing right handed pitching as a right hander.  Something he probably never did his whole life.  Gotta be tough to get used to a breaking ball that way.  

He'll either get it and be a good player or he'll burn out before AA.  Probably the latter.  

It's kinda time for the 2016 draft to show us something. 

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16 minutes ago, RBM said:

Yeah, you’re right. Eppler’s first draft is going into it’s fourth year and only a few picks have made it to AA. Thaiss, the 1st round pick, is stuck in AAA with modest success. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks have not played a single game above A ball so it’s a big year for Marsh, Williams and Rodriguez. The 5th rounder, Justus, failed at miserably at AA last year. Not good so far. 

I actually liked that draft but I think it's why Ric Wilson was given his walking papers.  

strategy has changed since then.  Knowing how Eppler has rolled since, Thaiss doesn't seem like his type of pick.  I really hope Chris Rodriguez is able to show his stuff this year.   

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Nonie is, at best,  a fringe prospect. Meaning, anything we get from him--any version of a major leaguer--is a bonus above reasonable expectation (a "fringe prospect" being a prospect who is not expected to reach the majors). He's the type of player that makes me very skeptical when I hear about "incredible bat speed" or "a great athlete." Baseball is so much more than a flashy skill displayed in a try-out; not only is there a huge developmental arc across levels, but a massive gap between impressing the scouts in a batting cage and playing in a live game. Remember the hype around Yoan Moncada and his ridiculous raw talent? He just had his first full-time season and looked about as raw as can be, hitting .235/.315/.400 with 217 strikeouts. He could get better as he is only now 24 years old, but that's a far cry from the surefire star he was supposed to be.

And then, of course, there's issues of maturation and make-up. How many incredible athletes never make it out of the low minors because they simply don't have the drive to do the work, or do it in a way that leads to actual skill development? Chevy Clarke is the poster child of this. He fancied himself a superstar as soon as he was drafted, more interested in his twitter feed than developing himself into a baseball player.

I am reminded of when Darin Erstad said, in response to someone asking him about his plate approach, "I tinker." This was after that incredible 2000 season when he seemed to have broken through into superstardom, but then came nowhere close again. He  had no approach. 2000 was the result of luck and raw talent. The players that repeat such years are those that make adjustments, who continually evolve themselves, who have a plate approach. Like Mike Trout. Erstad could have had a 50+ WAR borderline Hall of Fame career, if he went beyond "tinkering."

Nonie Williams is somewhat annoying in that there was a gap between his pre-draft scouting reports and what we saw as an Angels prospect. Like Maitan or Deveaux. I'm not sure why this happens with these guys. Its like a variation on how people look on social media or their dating profile vs the reality of who meets you at the bar on that first date. Deveaux deserves the benefit of the doubt for now, but has some big question marks and looks like a huge work in progress; Maitan is similar. Nonie? Anything would be a pleasant, but unexpected, surprise. Meaning, I don't expect anything more than another Chevy Clarke: meaning, nothing.

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Maybe some would disagree but I think there is a big difference between being an excellent athlete by baseball standards vs. being a world class athlete.  Adell, Adams and maybe Marsh are closer to the athlete that could play another professional sport.  Trout is obviously the poster child for being a world class athlete.  

I feel like when we talk about guys like Nonie, they are more 'baseball athletic'.  Where there is a set of tools that seem to be a prerequisite for a player to become elite at baseball but he's not a truly elite athlete.  

I actually think Simmons is a truly elite athlete.  His instincts, quickness etc are unreal.  The fact that he's evolved into a solid hitter with such a terrible swing is a testament to his off the charts eye hand.  Ohtani is the same way.  

Albert is a good example of a baseball athlete.  Big and strong with incredible eye hand. 

Eppler is really betting on the elite athlete over the baseball athlete.  

Also, there something about the way certain guy are able to see the ball coming out of the pitchers hand.  

I've still got a couple of years of passes to hand out to Nonie because of his conversion to hitting only RHed.  I still think learning how to recognize a breaking ball by a RHed pitcher from the right side at the pro level when you've only ever seen it in reverse has got to be incredibly difficult.  

The cool thing about our system right now is that guys like Nonie and Maitan and a mess of other guys barely on the radar as prospects but could easily vault up the list with a breakout season which they are totally capable of even if it's not likely.  

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15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Eppler is really betting on the elite athlete over the baseball athlete.  

A large part of an elite athlete is between the ears. When you talk about Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and Adell (which we've seen more of in off field interviews than Marsh) these are intelligent guys. They not only study and dissect the game but also apply what they know they can do to their emense physical skill set and don't go outside of that. Then outside if the lines they are people you want in your community.

With Ohtani you see the focus and maturity. He studied his ass off working on his Rookie of the Year speech and as he walked to the podium, in a very well fitted and yet conservative dark suit, you saw him pass by other award recipients that looked like they were dressing for their first prom (that's a clown suit, bro). This is a serious career for him and he approaches it that way. 

Adell is still a work in progress but physical skill and athleticism doesn't guarantee success. His interaction in the media shows a guy that is intelligent and focused on the important things and not caught up with self. He gets that the game requires more than just hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. It requires having a reputable image that the ballclub and fans trust. On the trajectory he is on, by his arbitration years he is going to get expensive quick. 

Eppler is assembling elite people to become an elite team, not just alpha dogs with great talents but also great flaws, as we've seen with Machado. 

Trout long term is a zero risk because of his makeup. I believe Simmons and Ohtani are the same with Adell coming up. Elite athletes and elite people. The more of these guys work their way into the lineup the more you will see the hard work of the front office pay off. 

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13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

A large part of an elite athlete is between the ears. When you talk about Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and Adell (which we've seen more of in off field interviews than Marsh) these are intelligent guys. They not only study and dissect the game but also apply what they know they can do to their emense physical skill set and don't go outside of that. Then outside if the lines they are people you want in your community.

With Ohtani you see the focus and maturity. He studied his ass off working on his Rookie of the Year speech and as he walked to the podium, in a very well fitted and yet conservative dark suit, you saw him pass by other award recipients that looked like they were dressing for their first prom (that's a clown suit, bro). This is a serious career for him and he approaches it that way. 

Adell is still a work in progress but physical skill and athleticism doesn't guarantee success. His interaction in the media shows a guy that is intelligent and focused on the important things and not caught up with self. He gets that the game requires more than just hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. It requires having a reputable image that the ballclub and fans trust. On the trajectory he is on, by his arbitration years he is going to get expensive quick. 

Eppler is assembling elite people to become an elite team, not just alpha dogs with great talents but also great flaws, as we've seen with Machado. 

Trout long term is a zero risk because of his makeup. I believe Simmons and Ohtani are the same with Adell coming up. Elite athletes and elite people. The more of these guys work their way into the lineup the more you will see the hard work of the front office pay off. 

Agreed. Particularly I feel Simmons is a poster child for baseball intelligence and in-game awareness, he is just so solid. Complete player.

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2 hours ago, Blarg said:

A large part of an elite athlete is between the ears. When you talk about Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and Adell (which we've seen more of in off field interviews than Marsh) these are intelligent guys. They not only study and dissect the game but also apply what they know they can do to their emense physical skill set and don't go outside of that. Then outside if the lines they are people you want in your community.

With Ohtani you see the focus and maturity. He studied his ass off working on his Rookie of the Year speech and as he walked to the podium, in a very well fitted and yet conservative dark suit, you saw him pass by other award recipients that looked like they were dressing for their first prom (that's a clown suit, bro). This is a serious career for him and he approaches it that way. 

Adell is still a work in progress but physical skill and athleticism doesn't guarantee success. His interaction in the media shows a guy that is intelligent and focused on the important things and not caught up with self. He gets that the game requires more than just hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. It requires having a reputable image that the ballclub and fans trust. On the trajectory he is on, by his arbitration years he is going to get expensive quick. 

Eppler is assembling elite people to become an elite team, not just alpha dogs with great talents but also great flaws, as we've seen with Machado. 

Trout long term is a zero risk because of his makeup. I believe Simmons and Ohtani are the same with Adell coming up. Elite athletes and elite people. The more of these guys work their way into the lineup the more you will see the hard work of the front office pay off. 

Agreed as well.  

"Be a man.  Don't be a f**king pimp' - De Niro from Casino.  

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