The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[tdawg87]

I'm in the bonezone.

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm in the bonezone.

how long have you had that one teed up?  

[Docwaukee]

and I bet if the list went to 150, guys like Thaiss, Suarez would be in there and you might even start seeing Knowles and Jackson creep their way into the so called honorable mention category.  or even a Pat Sandoval.  

[Chuck]

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and I bet if the list went to 150, guys like Thaiss, Suarez would be in there and you might even start seeing Knowles and Jackson creep their way into the so called honorable mention category.  or even a Pat Sandoval.  

Rengifo too

[Chuck]

 

 

[Docwaukee]

Jones and Marsh are gonna start bringing the power this year.  

[ettin]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm in the bonezone.

To be fair, how is this different from any other day?

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Jones and Marsh are gonna start bringing the power this year.  

I'm hoping they're going to start bringing the ruckus.

[Lou]

[Angelsjunky]

They should also run that ass into the ground.

[jessecrall]

Considering the volatility I've seen on Jones' recent scouting reports, this isn't bad news.

[Angelsjunky]

At some point the upside has to translate...or not. 2019 will tell us a lot about Jones' future, I think. Or rather, it will tell us whether the down-turn in offense was primarily about adjusting to a higher level at the same time as he was re-learning 2B, or whether he simply isn't that good. AA often separates the wheat from the chaff in terms of those hitters that can or cannot handle higher cailber stuff.

That said, Jones has a relatively stable floor as an average regular 2B or good OF/2B utility-platoon player. His ceiling is as a Ray Durham-type occasional All-Star second baseman. Regardless, I think he is going to be the type of player that does everything reasonably well but nothing in an exceptional way. Those types of players tend to be both quite underrated and very useful.

[Angel Oracle]

Looking at Jones' age 19 season (between low-A and high-A) in 2017, it was actually quite good with an OPS of close to .800.

I'm guessing it was adjusting to the different position that brought down the OPS some in 2018.   

I can see him putting up at least an upper .700s OPS in AA in 2019.

[Docwaukee]

Jones still had league avg production at the plate in AA despite being 4 years younger on avg than his competition.  Which was actually better than he performed in A+ which makes me think it was the competition that bothered him.  

the thing that's hard to parse out about his 2018 season was whether he consistently squared up the ball.  It doesn't seem like it which is a bit concerning.  But then his AFL performance was pretty impressive.  

I think I agree with the premise that he's gonna end up a solid avg major leaguer who does everything well enough but nothing really well.  That said, his athleticism could help overcome some of that and elevate his game.  On top of that, his plate discipline could bump him up a bit further.  

So you take a player like Cesar Hernandez and add a little extra.  

In other words, he's the type that could be solid for his first 3 years yet really turn a corner at age 26/27 and have some really nice peak seasons like a Scooter Gennett  or our old buddy Howie Kendrick (different bat to ball skills of course but similar production overall).  

[Docwaukee]

The more I think about where Marsh is at, the more I think he's primed for a breakout.  Totally forgot that 2018 was really his first full season.  Only 192 PA in 2017 and didn't get any time in 2016 due to injury.  Lots of K's, but his discipline took off this year.  He's gonna hit 25+ hrs this year with a 900 ops in AA and maybe even get to AAA.  I can feel it.  

[Angelsjunky]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

The more I think about where Marsh is at, the more I think he's primed for a breakout.  Totally forgot that 2018 was really his first full season.  Only 192 PA in 2017 and didn't get any time in 2016 due to injury.  Lots of K's, but his discipline took off this year.  He's gonna hit 25+ hrs this year with a 900 ops in AA and maybe even get to AAA.  I can feel it.  

Yep, I feel similarly. He's a guy I have high hopes for and think will take a huge step forward in 2019 - maybe moreso than any other prospect.

[Second Base]

This response is more geared toward what @Dochalo has been speaking about.  You're absolutely correct in that Jones wasn't squaring the ball up to begin the year.  This is a game of adjustments, and a prospect's ability to adjust is the one factor that will dictate his success as a major leaguer.  Mike Trout could adjust faster than anyone we've ever seen.  Brandon Wood couldn't at all. 

To begin last season, Jahmai Jones was at a new position, in a new ball park, new teammates, playing against guys that are a few years older than him, at a level of play he was unfamiliar with, and was going through some mechanical issues in his swing.

Flat out, things weren't going so hot for Jahmai. He needed to make a TON of adjustment.  But by the end of the year, Jones had become a competent (not great, but good enough) defender at second base.  He continued to get stronger and started hitting with more power. He became more accustomed to the level of play and he tweaked his swing to spot where he was able to see the ball longer and drive it.  His AFL performance showed who he was as a player. 

Jones showed last year that he will make the adjustments, and that's why Jahmai Jones is going to be a major leaguer.  He's not done developing yet because he's quite young, but long run, I have every reason to believe Jones will be a much better than average player.  I expect he'll be an average or slightly above average defender at 2B, and is going to get on base at a consistent, solid clip, and through his strength and athleticism, he's going to be a potential 20/20 for several years in the majors.

Now in regards to Marsh.....as strong as he is, his body still hasn't developed yet.  This kid is going to be freakishly strong in a couple years.  His swing is more geared toward line drives, so he may not hit many HR's, or maybe he'll be so strong that he will.  I think he will compare a little favorably to Joc Pederson. Pederson was also a very athletic, strong prospect, but as a major leaguer he's been a platoon player because he can't hit LHP.  Marsh will be more athletic than Pederson, and as strong if not stronger.  We'll see how he performs against same side pitching at higher levels though. 

[bloodbrother]

I really love Jones swing so I still believe in his bat developing.

[m0nkey]

 

[ettin]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

The more I think about where Marsh is at, the more I think he's primed for a breakout.  Totally forgot that 2018 was really his first full season.  Only 192 PA in 2017 and didn't get any time in 2016 due to injury.  Lots of K's, but his discipline took off this year.  He's gonna hit 25+ hrs this year with a 900 ops in AA and maybe even get to AAA.  I can feel it.  

I hope so because that would potentially allow us to get Justin Upton off the books in a trade sooner rather than later (or not at all). I have high hopes for Marsh, I always have. Eppler's Larry Walker comp really excited me and if he can be 80% Walker we have a real-deal player.

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, ettin said:

I hope so because that would potentially allow us to get Justin Upton off the books in a trade sooner rather than later (or not at all). I have high hopes for Marsh, I always have. Eppler's Larry Walker comp really excited me and if he can be 80% Walker we have a real-deal player.

Doubtful we ever trade Upton.  The idea of moving him to 1b is interesting.  

[Second Base]

I think Upton moving away from LF will be a natural and anticipated outcome.  The Angels signed him for his age 30-34 seasons.  They knew coming in that he'd be a decetn defender in LF, but with the erosion of skills over time, by the time his age 34 season comes around, he very much could be a liability out there.  This isn't terrible, because LF is a spot where you can hide a liability sometimes.  Plus with the amount of OF prospects the angels are stocking up on, his replacement seems like it would be readily available.  That, and I think we can still reasonably expect him to be a decent run producer at age 34. 

Once Marsh and Adell are ready, and have shown the Angels enough to believe in their upside, I think the Angels will approach Justin Upton about the idea of playing multiple spots.  First, he'll start getting more days at the DH spot whenever Ohtani isn't occupying it.  This will be because by this time, Albert will be off the books and roster.  So on average, probably twice a week.  But if they're playing six games a week, where will the other four starts come from.  At that point, it becomes Thiass vs Marsh.  Whichever is not only hitting better, but providing more value to the lineup.  If it's Marsh, then Upton will likely be playing 1B three times a week.  If It's Thaiss, Upton will likely be out in LF three times a week.

And as far as the timeline of this goes.  I think it starts in 2020.  I really do believe that 2019 is Albert's last year with the Angels.  I know what the contract says, but I think he's done after this year, whether he steps away on his own or if the Angels kind of force it, I don't know.  But either way, he's done come 2020.  With Thaiss starting in AAA and Marsh starting in AA, it looks to me like 2019 will be the year where we see which will contribute in 2020 and which won't.  Thaiss might put it all together.  He's closer to the majors and was drafted in the first round for a reason.  So it very well could be him.  But then again, Marsh looks extremely primed for a breakout, and if that breakout happens, Matt Thaiss won't be holding him back. 

Since they both have options, I could see the hot-hand being played.  If one is hitting and the other isn't, he'll be in the lineup, and the other will be in AAA.  So I think the number of games Upton plays in LF in 2020 will likely be around 50.  I think he'll probably get about 50 starts at 1B, and another 50 starts at DH.  Keep his bat in the lineup, but allow things to play out naturally until one of Thiass or Marsh take over for good. 

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Doubtful we ever trade Upton.  The idea of moving him to 1b is interesting.  

That is, of course, a possibility too.

[greginpsca]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

That is, of course, a possibility too.

If the team craps the bed this season, i could see him dangled to a team in the chase that feels they need another hitter. He will have 3 years left on his contract, after this season. The Angels would probably have to eat a year.

[ettin]

16 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

If the team craps the bed this season, i could see him dangled to a team in the chase that feels they need another hitter. He will have 3 years left on his contract, after this season. The Angels would probably have to eat a year.

That seems really unlikely to me because the Angels do not have anyone ready to replace him down on the farm. Marsh is probably two years away at least and Adell is going to replace Calhoun, so we really need him for the next two seasons in all probability. After that he is potentially fair game.