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The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


Chuck

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JUp has a full no trade as well.  

No one is going to trade for him in his age 33/34 seasons and if they would, it would either be because the Angels paid a ton of money to get rid of him (He'll have 51m left) or because he's still playing very well and by that time, we can use him it first and possibly part time DH.  

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7 hours ago, ettin said:

That seems really unlikely to me because the Angels do not have anyone ready to replace him down on the farm. Marsh is probably two years away at least and Adell is going to replace Calhoun, so we really need him for the next two seasons in all probability. After that he is potentially fair game.

I think there's a good chance that Marsh advances very quickly, maybe even gets a cup o' coffee in September of this year and is ready for a regular major league gig sometime in 2020. So if I'm the Angels, I'd want to think about unloading Upton either at the deadline in 2019 if they're not in the playoff race, because he'd have good value to a team seeking to add offense, or in the offseason between 2019 and 2020.

I'm not saying they'll do that, or will have any takers. I'm not sure anyone will want a 32-34 year old for 3/$72M. But if I'm Eppler, I'm probably second-guessing that five-year contract. 

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4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think there's a good chance that Marsh advances very quickly, maybe even gets a cup o' coffee in September of this year and is ready for a regular major league gig sometime in 2020. So if I'm the Angels, I'd want to think about unloading Upton either at the deadline in 2019 if they're not in the playoff race, because he'd have good value to a team seeking to add offense, or in the offseason between 2019 and 2020.

I'm not saying they'll do that, or will have any takers. I'm not sure anyone will want a 32-34 year old for 3/$72M. But if I'm Eppler, I'm probably second-guessing that five-year contract. 

I think Eppler knew full well what he was doing, which is ensuring that LF would be solved once and for all, at least for the foreseeable future. And while it isn't as if any of us know Upton personally, he loves playing in So-Cal, and he would do whatever it takes to help the team win. If they approach him about spending more time at DH and 1B to save his legs and keep his bat in the lineup through the mid-30's, while also prodviding an opportunity for some kids to come up and learn from him and infuse some excitement into the team, you have to figure he would be on board with it.

The Angels and Upton know why he's here, and it isn't to be a defensive specialist in LF. He is here for his bat and the Angels would be making sure that bat stays in the lineup and is surrounding by more bats. 

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9 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think Eppler knew full well what he was doing, which is ensuring that LF would be solved once and for all, at least for the foreseeable future. And while it isn't as if any of us know Upton personally, he loves playing in So-Cal, and he would do whatever it takes to help the team win. If they approach him about spending more time at DH and 1B to save his legs and keep his bat in the lineup through the mid-30's, while also prodviding an opportunity for some kids to come up and learn from him and infuse some excitement into the team, you have to figure he would be on board with it.

The Angels and Upton know why he's here, and it isn't to be a defensive specialist in LF. He is here for his bat and the Angels would be making sure that bat stays in the lineup and is surrounding by more bats. 

Except for the fact that the market for good-but-not-great players has shifted since his contract, and if Eppler had even just waited a couple months probably could have had Upton for 4/$80M.

I like Upton and he's a good player, I'd just rather have Marsh long-term and am worried he'll end up playing for someone else. 

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46 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

I just saw that.

14. Adell

63. Canning

I feel like MLB Pipeline is punishing Jo for moving up to Double-A instead of staying in the lower levels and continuing pad his numbers.

Ya pretty wide swing in opinions so far.  14 is still great obviously but it’s definitley not 2nd overall.  

Looking forward to Keith Laws. 

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I love Adell but I'm not sure I'm ready to rank him #2. Vlad Jr is an easy #1, but then you have a group of guys that could be ranked in a variety of ways; Adell, Robles, Tatis, Lewis, Franco, Senzel, Jimenez, Whitley, maybe one or two others. These things are so subjective; I somewhat prefer tiers or grades rather than ranking order.

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You know what would be an incredible debate, is if we could transplant Trout the prospect to now, or Vlad Jr. back to 2011. Everybody would say Vlad was the better hitter with more power, though Trout was no slouch in either of those. They'd be pretty close in terms of plate discipline and pitch recognition with a slight nod toward Vlad. But Trout would add so much more value on the bases and in the field. Trout was definitely the more projectable of the two..... Not knowing that Trout would potentially be the GOAT as we do now, it'd be interesting. 

Trout and Harper were pretty close as prospects, and we saw how that turned out.  

I think in the end, Vlad is going to hit .320/.420 with 40+ bombs a year in his prime, though much of that production will likely come from 1B. He's an ok third baseman right now, but by the time he's 24 or 25, a few years from now 3B likely won't even be a possibility anymore. And Trout, well I think we're about to see what he does in his prime. Potential 12 win player every year if he stays healthy and has the right players around him to sort of force or change the behavior and approach of pitchers and defenders.

Organic dominance we haven't seen in years, maybe ever. 

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I think it’s important to remember how insane the production was that we saw from specifically Adell, Ward, Fletcher, Rengifo, Canning, Suarez, Knowles, Jackson, and even Thaiss and Walsh. 

While those numbers weren’t impossible to attain for their talent, the outcome was about as best case scenario (and then some) for each. And it was crazy that we had so many prospects play to that level all in one year. 

I’m not calling it a fluke - I actually think we’re seeing some true minor league development and coaching processes take root - but I also understand that some  will eye the Angels prospects and system as simply having had some fortune smile on them last season and take the growth with a few grains of salt.  

2019 will be a fascinating season for this reason alone - will we againsee three infielders jump from career .700 OPS guys reach .900 OPS at advanced levels? Will we again see three pitchers look utterly dominant in A+ and AA? Maybe not those scenarios specifically, but if we see such gains again, it’ll be time to really start getting excited about our prospects and what our minor league system and drafting is achieving. 

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I can understand Adell being ranked #2

I can understand Adell being ranked #14.  

I do think that those are the extremes though.  

One of the things I have always found curious is that a guy has to maintain top level production to stay on the list or be replaced by a relative unknown who hasn't done anything.  

 

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13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I love Adell but I'm not sure I'm ready to rank him #2. Vlad Jr is an easy #1, but then you have a group of guys that could be ranked in a variety of ways; Adell, Robles, Tatis, Lewis, Franco, Senzel, Jimenez, Whitley, maybe one or two others. These things are so subjective; I somewhat prefer tiers or grades rather than ranking order.

I wish the Halos could find a Whitley for the mound.

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44 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I can understand Adell being ranked #2

I can understand Adell being ranked #14.  

I do think that those are the extremes though.  

One of the things I have always found curious is that a guy has to maintain top level production to stay on the list or be replaced by a relative unknown who hasn't done anything.  

 

An example is Alex Kiriloff (sp?) who is like 9th on their list. Good player but to rank him that high seems a bit absurd.

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4 minutes ago, ksangel said:

Angels could have drafted Whitley in 2016 but took Thaiss with 16th pick. Houston took Whitley with 17th pick.

This is a prime example of why an MLB draft needs to be evaluated on its totality instead of just one round. While Whitley would have been a great pick, his signing bonus was $1 million dollars more than Thaiss's. That million went a long way to signing later round picks. I'm not sure whether we made the right call (and it's still way too early to judge any of these moves) based on the alternatives. While I'd rather have Whitley than Thaiss and $1,000,000; it's important not to think of the $1 million as a value, but as a percentage of the available player signing pool. I'm not sure I'd rather have Whitley than Thaiss and the talent that $1 million got us beyond what we would have been able to get without it.

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45 minutes ago, ettin said:

An example is Alex Kiriloff (sp?) who is like 9th on their list. Good player but to rank him that high seems a bit absurd.

He was who I was thinking of when I said that Adell was punished for getting promoted to Double-A. Kirilloff, a 21 year old OF (was 20 during the season) who has yet to reach Double-A got ranked 5 spots better than Adell, who reached Double-A at age 19.

Adell is the only position player with four 60 grade tools (per MLB Pipeline) not in the top 10.

 

 

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1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

This is a prime example of why an MLB draft needs to be evaluated on its totality instead of just one round. While Whitley would have been a great pick, his signing bonus was $1 million dollars more than Thaiss's. That million went a long way to signing later round picks. I'm not sure whether we made the right call (and it's still way too early to judge any of these moves) based on the alternatives. While I'd rather have Whitley than Thaiss and $1,000,000; it's important not to think of the $1 million as a value, but as a percentage of the available player signing pool. I'm not sure I'd rather have Whitley than Thaiss and the talent that $1 million got us beyond what we would have been able to get without it.

I don't like the idea of conserving funds for the later rounds by taking a lesser pick in the 1st.  Far and away your first round pick has the best odds of getting to and providing substantial contribution at the major league level.  It the largest accessible pool of players available.  So your first round player should always be the best player on your board.  

Eppler's first draft with Wilson and the helm was a conservative college bat.  The last two years have been the complete opposite.  So it has a lot to do with how you compose your draft board.  

Of course in retrospect I'd rather have Whitley over Thaiss because Marsh signed for slot, Nonie got 330k over slot, Chris Rodriguez got 390k over slot, and Cole Duensing got 240k over slot.  Then we went near slot in rounds 7 and 8 for Zimmerman and Montgomery.  So there easily could have been ways to save money and get Whitley as I'd certainly rather have him and someone besides Nonie, Rodriguez, and Duensing than Thaiss and those guys.  But, that easy to write two and a half years later.  

But I am always of the mind of getting the highest upside player available that matches the draft slot and is considered signable in your first two and maybe 3 rounds.  Which I think they've done the last two years, and why I think Wilson got let go after their 2016 draft.  

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't like the idea of conserving funds for the later rounds by taking a lesser pick in the 1st.  Far and away your first round pick has the best odds of getting to and providing substantial contribution at the major league level.  It the largest accessible pool of players available.  So your first round player should always be the best player on your board.  

Eppler's first draft with Wilson and the helm was a conservative college bat.  The last two years have been the complete opposite.  So it has a lot to do with how you compose your draft board.  

Of course in retrospect I'd rather have Whitley over Thaiss because Marsh signed for slot, Nonie got 330k over slot, Chris Rodriguez got 390k over slot, and Cole Duensing got 240k over slot.  Then we went near slot in rounds 7 and 8 for Zimmerman and Montgomery.  So there easily could have been ways to save money and get Whitley as I'd certainly rather have him and someone besides Nonie, Rodriguez, and Duensing than Thaiss and those guys.  But, that easy to write two and a half years later.  

But I am always of the mind of getting the highest upside player available that matches the draft slot and is considered signable in your first two and maybe 3 rounds.  Which I think they've done the last two years, and why I think Wilson got let go after their 2016 draft.  

I agree with your strategy in the top 10 picks, but I think as you move down in the round I think spending more later in the draft is better. I think draft picks hit at such a low rate that I'd rather have 2 guys who are 70% of one guy you could get at pick 20 or 21. None of our fliers worked out in that draft, but maybe the next ones do. Also, I wonder what happened with Marsh and his bonus. I get the impression he probably thought he was getting more money and then the back injury was discovered. I think there's a decent shot he was going to require some of those first-round savings. What is your read on that situation?

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't like the idea of conserving funds for the later rounds by taking a lesser pick in the 1st.  Far and away your first round pick has the best odds of getting to and providing substantial contribution at the major league level.  It the largest accessible pool of players available.  So your first round player should always be the best player on your board.  

Eppler's first draft with Wilson and the helm was a conservative college bat.  The last two years have been the complete opposite.  So it has a lot to do with how you compose your draft board.  

Of course in retrospect I'd rather have Whitley over Thaiss because Marsh signed for slot, Nonie got 330k over slot, Chris Rodriguez got 390k over slot, and Cole Duensing got 240k over slot.  Then we went near slot in rounds 7 and 8 for Zimmerman and Montgomery.  So there easily could have been ways to save money and get Whitley as I'd certainly rather have him and someone besides Nonie, Rodriguez, and Duensing than Thaiss and those guys.  But, that easy to write two and a half years later.  

But I am always of the mind of getting the highest upside player available that matches the draft slot and is considered signable in your first two and maybe 3 rounds.  Which I think they've done the last two years, and why I think Wilson got let go after their 2016 draft.  

It's different every year. I'm in the same boat, I'd rather not skimp on a first rounder just so I can sign a more elite second rounder, but if your draft slot, or the prospects available at the time aren't slams dunks, you can grab a high floor player and a high upside player to make up the difference.

Believe it or not, the Angels have done this almost every year in the draft recently, just sometimes in reverse order. High floor with Newcomb, high ceiling for Jones. High floor in Thaiss, high ceiling in Marsh. High ceiling for Adell, high floor for Canning. 

It was only this last draft where they went high ceiling for both picks in Adams and Jackson.

In the upcoming draft, I really wouldn't be surprised to see them go with a high floor pitcher or catcher in the first or second round, and more of an upside pick with the other.

What's really going to be interesting, to me at least, is if the Angels will bring in prospects based on need or best player available. I mean let's face it, Jones, Marsh, Adell, Adams, Deveaux, Knowles and now Ramirez was a lot of picks on the same specific type of player with little variation. They've since moved Jones to 2B which helps alleviate what could result in a log jam.

Meanwhile, the team is short on legitimately good pitching. Suarez and Canning up top are pretty good, but the rest....well they'll need a lot to go right. Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Luis Madero, Stiward Aquino, Hector Yan, Jerryell Rivera are all raw upside guys that either need healing or development to be anything worth counting on. Aaron Hernandez and Kyle Bradish could rise quickly, but no one here has seen them pitch yet.

The Angels could use a couple more Cannings right now.

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10 hours ago, Second Base said:

You know what would be an incredible debate, is if we could transplant Trout the prospect to now, or Vlad Jr. back to 2011. Everybody would say Vlad was the better hitter with more power, though Trout was no slouch in either of those. They'd be pretty close in terms of plate discipline and pitch recognition with a slight nod toward Vlad. But Trout would add so much more value on the bases and in the field. Trout was definitely the more projectable of the two..... Not knowing that Trout would potentially be the GOAT as we do now, it'd be interesting. 

Trout and Harper were pretty close as prospects, and we saw how that turned out.  

I think in the end, Vlad is going to hit .320/.420 with 40+ bombs a year in his prime, though much of that production will likely come from 1B. He's an ok third baseman right now, but by the time he's 24 or 25, a few years from now 3B likely won't even be a possibility anymore. And Trout, well I think we're about to see what he does in his prime. Potential 12 win player every year if he stays healthy and has the right players around him to sort of force or change the behavior and approach of pitchers and defenders.

Organic dominance we haven't seen in years, maybe ever. 

Good assessment. Vlad Jr may be the best hitting prospect since Trout. I heard someone at Fangraphs say he could be a top 15 hitter right now in the majors - without having a single MLB at-bat. 

But obviously he isn't the overall package that Trout was and is. He might even end up being a better hitter, but probably won't come close to peak Trout in terms of WAR. I see Vlad Jr as another Miggy or perhaps Frank Thomas, both of whom were the best hitters in baseball for years. Pujols is another comp. He'll be fun to watch.

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I can understand Adell being ranked #2

I can understand Adell being ranked #14.  

I do think that those are the extremes though.  

One of the things I have always found curious is that a guy has to maintain top level production to stay on the list or be replaced by a relative unknown who hasn't done anything.  

 

Yep, this is another way of saying what I was getting at. #2 is fine, I guess, but so is #14. That said, if we're speculating in terms of what sort of careers these guys will have, I think he belongs on the lower (higher ranked) side of that 2-14 range, probably somewhere in the 2-7 range.

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I got to see Vlad Jr play in Fall League ball. He can hit, that is for sure and nothing cheap about his contact, everything was hot off the wood. 

He is not a good fielding 3rd baseman. I know he is going to play there this season but it won't be many seasons before they move him to 1st base. 

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54 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

So we expect Vlad Jr to be like Albert if Albert was actually the age he claims?

The comparison I've heard is David Ortiz. Shouldn't be playing in the field but he'll hit enough to still be a great player. Albert had a much better career than Ortiz. Vlad could certainly be like Albert, but Pujols was the best player in baseball between Bonds and Trout.

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7 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

The comparison I've heard is David Ortiz. Shouldn't be playing in the field but he'll hit enough to still be a great player. Albert had a much better career than Ortiz. Vlad could certainly be like Albert, but Pujols was the best player in baseball between Bonds and Trout.

I'm talking about him being a 20 yr old who's among the best hitters in the game but soon moved to 1st base and staying there

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1 hour ago, arch stanton said:

So we expect Vlad Jr to be like Albert if Albert was actually the age he claims?

No matter what Albert's actual age, he was still an incredible ballplayer from 2001-10, and still very good in 2011-12. Let's not lose sight of that.

But yeah, he sucks now and has been a disaster as an Angel.

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