#1 and #2 Starters (2019 elephant in the room)

[Dtwncbad]

I guess we just roll into the season fully pretending that there are not two gigantic vacancies at the top of the Angel rotation?

I like Heaney quite a bit and think he has upside from where he is now.  But that is quite different than being comfortable that he is being expected to be a #1 or #2.  Skaggs is close to the same.

These two are properly placed as #3 and #4 starters, maybe you can call them both #3s.

But either way, the vacancy at the top of the rotation is a huge smelly elephant in the room.

Are we really going to pretend it is ok to go to spring training with Heaney and Skaggs as the top two?

[Lou]

it's Dec 14th, FFS 

[kevinb]

We don’t need a 1 or 2 just a bunch of 3s and we should be good to go. 

[floplag]

Just now, Kevinb said:

We don’t need a 1 or 2 just a bunch of 3s and we should be good to go. 

Not with the offense we have today. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

it's Dec 14th, FFS 

Yeah, but it's past noon on Dec 14th...

[kevinb]

No one out there is really a number 1 right now. Unless we trade and we are not realistically trading our top guys for a number 1. If we have a bunch of solid 3s we should be able to make a run at a wild card. 

[Docwaukee]

no one is pretending to be happy about our current rotation.  

[m0nkey]

Didn’t know the room could fit more than one elephant. 

 

 

[krAbs]

Man, I was gonna write a post about how Skaggs looked like a #2 last year, and I looked up his stats...I forgot just how bad he ended the season. 5 games, 15.1 innings pitched, ERA of 14.09. Brought his ERA from 3.34 to 4.02. Amazing. Was he hurt or something? Anyone remember wtf happened there? How tf did he give up 17 runs in two games?!?

Its tough cuz like, I think a lot of us would really like to see us sign Kikuchi, but...He is probably not going to be that #1.

[Second Base]

Again, the Angels are more geared toward 2020 and beyond.  Shohei Ohtani will be back atop the rotation in 2020, and he'll be joined by Canning, Skaggs and Heaney, all of which are expected to take major steps forward in the next year.  For the fifth starter, they'll have Suarez and Barria.  

Or if the Angels really do sign Yusei Kikuchi, then you're looking at Kikuchi as the fifth starter, which would be an absolutely spectacular rotation. 

2019 will be the last of the rebuilding years.  Last year the farm produced Ohtani (not really), Ward, Barria, and Fletcher and Hermosillo as dynamic back ups.  By 2020, this team will have Thaiss, Rengifo, Jahmai Jones, Jo Adell, Pat Sandoval and possibly even someone like Marsh breaking into the lineup. 

Again, you just gotta be patient.  The Angels aren't going to mail it in, they also aren't going to sacrifice their future by spending money reserved for extensions to Trout, Simmons, Heaney, Skaggs, Ohtani....or spending the prospects that make this farm into the fastest growing team in baseball. 

[Angelsjunky]

How many free agents were or are better than Skaggs and Heaney?

Corbin - Nats overpaid 

Eovaldi - resigned by Red Sox

Happ - signed with Yankees

Morton - signed by Rays

Keuchel - available

Not really sure what you were expecting - that the Angels get two of these guys in a limited market? Or that they pull off some miraculous and/or prospect-expensive trade for Syndergaard or Bauer?

 

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Happ - RE-signed with Yankees

 

yep 

[Lou]

24 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Didn’t know the room could fit more than one elephant. 

he craiged himself? 

perv 

[Docwaukee]

Skaggs, Heaney and Barria pitched about 435 innings last year to an ERA of about 3.90.  

so that leaves about 370 ip to replace although  we probably need to get about another 75 innings or so on top of that in order to make the entire group more effective.  They had a 4.86 ERA in those 370 ip.  

the above trio avg'd about 145ip each.  If we had another two starters who did the same, that would put us around 725.  That's still not enough from your top 5.  

If we got the innings up to about 880 and the era down to about 4.00, that would mean about 35-40 fewer runs from our starters than the previous year.  Putting us firmly in the middle of the pack.  

Not only do we need two starters that can share that load, but we need our depth to pitch much better.  Guys like Pena, Trop, Canning and Suarez.  We had 16 players make starts last year.  That number needs to be cut in half.  

I really do think that our offense will be improved next year even though the additions have been underwhelming.  

and I think our pen will be improved as well - especially if they aren't overworked.  

 

[Hubs]

42 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I guess we just roll into the season fully pretending that there are not two gigantic vacancies at the top of the Angel rotation?

I like Heaney quite a bit and think he has upside from where he is now.  But that is quite different than being comfortable that he is being expected to be a #1 or #2.  Skaggs is close to the same.

These two are properly placed as #3 and #4 starters, maybe you can call them both #3s.

But either way, the vacancy at the top of the rotation is a huge smelly elephant in the room.

Are we really going to pretend it is ok to go to spring training with Heaney and Skaggs as the top two?

Heaney can be a #2 starter. His era is not what you want from a #2, but that is almost entirely due to his penchant for giving up the long ball. If he can work on this, he can have a Gerrit Cole type turn around.

Cole had a 4.26 ERA in 2017 with the Pirates, and gave up 31 HR. He had a 1.25 WHIP and he improved to a sub 3 ERA and gave up 19 HR with the Astros.

Skaggs is the #2 starter when healthy. He had a lot of really good and a lot of really bad games.

 

They need a #1 type and a #3-4 type. But the #1 type probably won't be cheap unless they just wait until 2020 for Ohtani to return.

 

[Dtwncbad]

59 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

How many free agents were or are better than Skaggs and Heaney?

Corbin - Nats overpaid 

Eovaldi - resigned by Red Sox

Happ - signed with Yankees

Morton - signed by Rays

Keuchel - available

Not really sure what you were expecting - that the Angels get two of these guys in a limited market? Or that they pull off some miraculous and/or prospect-expensive trade for Syndergaard or Bauer?

 

I expected them to get somebody.

I said it would be a bit much to expect landing two starters better than Heaney.  But one?

It is tough because I really wanted Corbin.  I know you cant just decide to sign a player, they choose.  And the cost was "too high" so I get it.

Trading for a stud starter is very expensive in prospects and I can be content to keep the prospects, but it just is a little tough to roll into 2019 without filling what I feel is a very obvious need.

The win/lost expectation for 2019 and the chances of reaching the postseason for 2019, in my mind, have a lot to do with the top end of the starters.

I am openly bellyaching, I know.

Just wanna win.

 

[Erstad Grit]

Greinke and Ray

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

Man, I was gonna write a post about how Skaggs looked like a #2 last year, and I looked up his stats...I forgot just how bad he ended the season. 5 games, 15.1 innings pitched, ERA of 14.09. Brought his ERA from 3.34 to 4.02. Amazing. Was he hurt or something? Anyone remember wtf happened there? How tf did he give up 17 runs in two games?!?

Its tough cuz like, I think a lot of us would really like to see us sign Kikuchi, but...He is probably not going to be that #1.

http://www.ocregister.com/tyler-skaggs-set-to-return-to-angels-trying-to-finish-on-a-good-note-after-a-frustrating-second-half

[T.G.]

Can someone please tell me which room the elephant is in now? 

[Second Base]

53 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Skaggs, Heaney and Barria pitched about 435 innings last year to an ERA of about 3.90.  

so that leaves about 370 ip to replace although  we probably need to get about another 75 innings or so on top of that in order to make the entire group more effective.  They had a 4.86 ERA in those 370 ip.  

the above trio avg'd about 145ip each.  If we had another two starters who did the same, that would put us around 725.  That's still not enough from your top 5.  

If we got the innings up to about 880 and the era down to about 4.00, that would mean about 35-40 fewer runs from our starters than the previous year.  Putting us firmly in the middle of the pack.  

Not only do we need two starters that can share that load, but we need our depth to pitch much better.  Guys like Pena, Trop, Canning and Suarez.  We had 16 players make starts last year.  That number needs to be cut in half.  

I really do think that our offense will be improved next year even though the additions have been underwhelming.  

and I think our pen will be improved as well - especially if they aren't overworked.  

 

I know we can't count on it, but I really do believe the Angels rotation is going to look very good next year.  Tyler Skaggs was a different guy.  He's reached the point in his career where he's separated far enough from surgery and has developed into where we envisioned when we drafted him.  Probably 180 innings with a low-3 ERA.  He's going to be a solid #2/3 starter.  Andrew Heaney is going to be a steady mid rotation starter as well.  Probably 180 innings and a 3.50 ERA.  Barria, I'm expecting his ERA to more reflect his FIP next year.  He's another than can go 180 innings, but I think we'll see more of a 4.25 ERA.  

But right now, the last two spots in the rotation looks like it's going to be a circus without outside help.  They could use Pena, but hard throwing relievers that move back to the rotation have a tendency of getting hurt (Wilson, Ramirez, Meyer).  They may want to tread carefully with him, or even slot him as a long man in the pen.  And Suarez and Canning are both major league ready, but in an ideal scenario, they'd be depth in 2019, not #4 and #5 starters.  They're certainly capable, but the depth has to be there.  I think if they end up getting Kikuchi, they may want to look at someone on a short deal like Anibal Sanchez..  If last year's results stand, then the Angels are getting more than they bargained for, and if not, that's when the depth comes into play. 

I really do think the Angels will be fine.  Competitive even.  They won't be the young juggernaut they are in 2020, but I can see an 85-90 win team. 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

How many free agents were or are better than Skaggs and Heaney?

Corbin - Nats overpaid 

Eovaldi - resigned by Red Sox

Happ - signed with Yankees

Morton - signed by Rays

Keuchel - available

Not really sure what you were expecting - that the Angels get two of these guys in a limited market? Or that they pull off some miraculous and/or prospect-expensive trade for Syndergaard or Bauer?

 

Why did we give up Shoemaker if it's a limited market?

[Angelsjunky]

46 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I expected them to get somebody.

I said it would be a bit much to expect landing two starters better than Heaney.  But one?

It is tough because I really wanted Corbin.  I know you cant just decide to sign a player, they choose.  And the cost was "too high" so I get it.

Trading for a stud starter is very expensive in prospects and I can be content to keep the prospects, but it just is a little tough to roll into 2019 without filling what I feel is a very obvious need.

The win/lost expectation for 2019 and the chances of reaching the postseason for 2019, in my mind, have a lot to do with the top end of the starters.

I am openly bellyaching, I know.

Just wanna win.

 

Yeah, I hear you. I think someone like Happ or Morton would have been perfect: limited years, not quite as expensive as Corbin/Keuchel. Someone to both fill in the rotation now and bridge the gap until Canning and Suarez hit their stride - not to mention Sandoval and others. 

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Why did we give up Shoemaker if it's a limited market?

Good question. I think not keeping Shoe is going to end up being a mistake, that he'll catch on somewhere and out-perform some of our starters. 

 

 

[Hubs]

Shoemaker isn’t getting a 3 or 5 year deal. He may get a minor league contract or a deal for 2 years. We’ll see what happens.

In the meantime I’d push for Keuchel. We know he gave up the most hits in 2018, but he also pitched 200 IP at a mid 3 ERA. And he was sub 3 in 2017. Adding him to Skaggs and Heaney means your top 3 guys should be able to give you at least 500-560 IP. Then your bottom 2-3 guys give you the 340-400 and you’re set. 900 innings from the starting 5. 

Alternatively, Sonny Gray is still available and so is Gio Gonzalez. Kikuchi is also available and a decision has to be done by January 2nd.

Those three have all pitched 170-200 IP recently, albeit Kikuchi in Japan.

I’d also look at Ervin Santana on a 1 year deal for 1-2 M. Even if they get two of the other three.

 

 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Why did we give up Shoemaker if it's a limited market?

Yeah the all of a sudden back tracking is intriguing to say the least .

[Lou]

I'm still glad we let Shoemaker go.