#1 and #2 Starters (2019 elephant in the room)

[Jeff Fletcher]

25 minutes ago, Lou said:

no player tries to get injured. prone means to be inclined or susceptible to something happening. fault doesn't play into it. if you're driving and get hit once a year, you're prone to being involved in auto accidents. 

being injured 3 straight years means you're susceptible to being injured. 

I think that’s some pretty sloppy word usage, honestly. 

. 

“likely to or liable to suffer from, do, or experience something, typically something regrettable or unwelcome.”

 

The word “prone” is describing something likely to happen in the future, not what happened in the past.

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Jeff Fletcher

[Lou]

and based on his history, I predicted he would get injured this season. alas, I was correct.

"Coincidence, if traced far enough back, becomes inevitable"

 

[Angel Oracle]

At some, a person’s natural inclination is to doubt a player’s ability to be healthy, if they seldom stay healthy.

Granted with Shoe it hasn’t been the wide range of injuries that Skaggs has had.

[Jeff Fletcher]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

and based on his history, I predicted he would get injured this season. alas, I was correct.

"Coincidence, if traced far enough back, becomes inevitable"

 

Congratulations. 

In poker we call this being “results oriented.”

[Dtwncbad]

On 12/14/2018 at 4:05 PM, Lou said:

it's Dec 14th, FFS 

Now it's late April.  Can I repost the original post here now or is it still too soon?

[zenmaster]

I've said this a million times here the last few years, but we have no ace. We have no #2. We have a bunch of 3-5 guys and some starters who wouldn't be on big league rosters on other teams. 

I'm hoping Ohtani can be our true Ace but I have my doubts since we have a small sample size and he's a 2 way player. I'm really hoping some of our farm guys turn into 1-2 type starters in the next year or so. It's almost shocking how long we've gone without having a true ace. Most teams have one guy at least that they can consider an Ace.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

I've said this a million times here the last few years, but we have no ace. We have no #2. We have a bunch of 3-5 guys and some starters who wouldn't be on big league rosters on other teams. 

I'm hoping Ohtani can be our true Ace but I have my doubts since we have a small sample size and he's a 2 way player. I'm really hoping some of our farm guys turn into 1-2 type starters in the next year or so. It's almost shocking how long we've gone without having a true ace. Most teams have one guy at least that they can consider an Ace.

I agree with everything except the last sentence.  Hell our division only has one team with a pitcher they’d consider an Ace.  

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

I've said this a million times here the last few years, but we have no ace. We have no #2. We have a bunch of 3-5 guys and some starters who wouldn't be on big league rosters on other teams. 

I'm hoping Ohtani can be our true Ace but I have my doubts since we have a small sample size and he's a 2 way player. I'm really hoping some of our farm guys turn into 1-2 type starters in the next year or so. It's almost shocking how long we've gone without having a true ace. Most teams have one guy at least that they can consider an Ace.

Cue the "how many true aces are there" comments. . .

Forget the ace label.  The Angels are legitimately light at the front of the rotation.

This was a huge "duh" and it wasn't addressed.

[Revad]

But Harvey!  He could be a legitimate #1.

[zenmaster]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree with everything except the last sentence.  Hell our division only has one team with a pitcher they’d consider an Ace.  

 

15 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Cue the "how many true aces are there" comments. . .

Forget the ace label.  The Angels are legitimately light at the front of the rotation.

This was a huge "duh" and it wasn't addressed.

 

Point taken but yes we are definitely much lighter at the front end than most MLB teams right now I'd think. Both based on how they are performing now and potential. 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

 

 

Point taken but yes we are definitely much lighter at the front end than most MLB teams right now I'd think. Both based on how they are performing now and potential. 

Why can’t Skaggs, when healthy, be the pitcher he was before his injury last year.  He had a 2.62 ERA in his first 19 starts.  So is he that guy or the guy in his final 5 starts pitch so poorly that his ERA jumped to over 4?  

Or another way to ask it.  Is Skaggs average/slightly below average pitcher because of constantly being injured?  Or is he average/slightly below average pitcher because of ability/stuff?  

I think of an Ace as someone you feel confident with in a big game.  I DO NOT feel that way about Skaggs.  But he had a nice run of good performance.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

I think this discussion would be better without labels. 

The Angels would be better if they had better starting pitching. Period. 

They would also be better if they had a better bullpen and a better lineup and a better defense. 

The sum of the quality of their starters needs to improve, whether that’s improving every spot by a little or one spot by a lot doesn’t matter. It’s about the bottom line. 

When people focus on single things (need an ace, need a lead off man, need a lefty reliever) you really get away from the point that it’s all about the total. 

You need to score more runs and allow fewer, and there lots of ways to do that. 

Eppler has said many times the way they evaluate everything is estimating how many net runs better they will be from making a move, and will it be worth the cost. 

[Dtwncbad]

I also think the Ace label contaminates the discussion.

But I personally would not deviate from the specific discussion that the rotation is light at the front, rather than lacking depth at the back.

For 40 years, I have rolled my eyes when a team that needs better front-of-the-rotation pitching signs another #4 or #5 type starter and people start fooling themselves that the issue was solved with "depth."

Sometimes you have to add to the FRONT half of the rotation and push everyone down.

When you do that, you improve every rotation spot below the guy you acquired.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[Stradling]

Last year we would have won 5 more games if we had another 4-5 starter.  

[itsKnoppUitsme]

28 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Last year we would have won 5 more games if we had another 4-5 starter.  

 The same can be said for #1

[Stradling]

Just now, itsKnoppUitsme said:

 The same can be said for #1

Yes, but the cost of the two is entirely different.  Someone posted on here that the #5 spot in our rotation last year had an ERA over 7.  If we had Stratton last year, even if his ERA was 5 we would have won a handful more games.  That is how bad it was last year.  

[zenmaster]

A bit off topic but  Does anyone remember that Parker Bridwell was 10-3 with a 3.64 ERA with 20 starts  in 2017 and Jaime Barria was 10-9 with a 3.41 ERA with 26 starts in 2018

 

I know these stats are a bit deceiving but it's crazy how serviceable Bridwell was in 2017 to be swapped around 24 times in 2 months in 2019. Hopefully Barria can pick up where he left off last year. 

[T.G.]

9 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

A bit off topic but  Does anyone remember that Parker Bridwell was 10-3 with a 3.64 ERA with 20 starts  in 2017 and Jaime Barria was 10-9 with a 3.41 ERA with 26 starts in 2018

 

I know these stats are a bit deceiving but it's crazy how serviceable Bridwell was in 2017 to be swapped around 24 times in 2 months in 2019. Hopefully Barria can pick up where he left off last year. 

But what was their spin rates?

[T.G.]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If we had Stratton last year and another pitcher named Briggs. We'd have Briggs and Stratton.

 

[Angel Oracle]

I'm looking forward to when two pitchers with the last names Jacoby and Meyers are acquired.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I also think the Ace label contaminates the discussion.

But I personally would not deviate from the specific discussion that the rotation is light at the front, rather than lacking depth at the back.

For 40 years, I have rolled my eyes when a team that needs better front-of-the-rotation pitching signs another #4 or #5 type starter and people start fooling themselves that the issue was solved with "depth."

Sometimes you have to add to the FRONT half of the rotation and push everyone down.

When you do that, you improve every rotation spot below the guy you acquired.

I think all you’re saying is the quickest way to improve is to add a REALLY good player. That’s also true with the lineup and the bullpen. The same way one starter at the top pushes everyone else down, a new No 3 hitter pushes everyone down and makes the lineup deeper. 

Obviously it’s always better to sign Dallas Keuchel than Matt Harvey and it’s better to sign Matt Harvey than Chris Stratton. It’s also better to sign Bryce Harper than Brian Goodwin. 

It would be easy to be a GM if all you had to do was pick the best players.

But there are costs that go with all of that, and that can’t be ignored. 

So the real question, how can you improve the most with the resources you have? And what does that improvement get you? (There’s a difference between going from 75 to 80 wins and from 88 to 93 wins.)

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

For 40 years, I have rolled my eyes when a team that needs better front-of-the-rotation pitching signs another #4 or #5 type starter and people start fooling themselves that the issue was solved with "depth."

And on this point specifically, I’m not sure people do that. 

I don’t think even the most optimistic Angels fan believed that Matt Harvey or Chris Stratton replaced Dallas Keuchel. 

But they believe: these guys have a chance to improve the team to some extent for a total cost of $11.5M instead of Improving it more for $80M and a draft pick. 

[Angel Oracle]

The MLB draft is June 3-5, which means that if Keuchel and Kimbrel aren't signed for another 44 days, they are fair game to be signed as it would then not cost the 2nd round pick.

Of course, chances are that they would not be in enough of a groove by late July, and thus not good candidates to be signed to short term deals and then dealt to improve the org long term.

[VariousCrap]

9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

And on this point specifically, I’m not sure people do that. 

I don’t think even the most optimistic Angels fan believed that Matt Harvey or Chris Stratton replaced Dallas Keuchel. 

But they believe: these guys have a chance to improve the team to some extent for a total cost of $11.5M instead of Improving it more for $80M and a draft pick. 

 

I'm not sure many thought those two guys would give the Angels a chance to improve the team.  I think most looked at them as guys who had a chance of keeping them from getting worse.  You don't sign those two guys expecting or hoping for improvement.

 

 

[VariousCrap]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

no player tries to get injured. prone means to be inclined or susceptible to something happening. fault doesn't play into it. if you're driving and get hit once a year, you're prone to being involved in auto accidents. 

being injured 3 straight years means you're susceptible to being injured. 

 

You can call it injury prone or a case of horrible luck.