#1 and #2 Starters (2019 elephant in the room)

[Stradling]

Just now, fan_since79 said:

It's a tired line but it reflects reality.

 

Yes, they’ve had injuries, lots of them.  Not nearly as many injuries or days lost to injuries as the number of these posts you put out.  

[hangin n wangin]

Shoemaker has shown some potential, but the guy couldn’t stay healthy. I wouldn’t have minded keeping him for 4 million since he has potential for a high 3, low 4 ERA.... but there is also just as much potential for him to be injured the whole year and put up a high 4 ERA.

I think the people that are disappointed we let him go are reflecting on that one really good year he had in 2014 with a 3.04 ERA. He hasn’t come close to that production since. That seemed like a year where he outperformed his real talent. 

I like Shoemaker and wish him the best, but he’s pretty easily replaceable. Especially for Eppler who is capable of finding the cheap hidden gem.

[stormngt]

7 hours ago, Lou said:

when healthy. 

lol 

I forgive the guy for getting hit in the head and almost dying and I forgive him for a doctor misdiagnosing the problem.  Like I said it's a good gamble. 

Get me someone better for the price and I am ok with it.  Right now it looks like we are just dumping salary despite pitching being a position of need.

[stormngt]

5 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Me too.

The Angels need pitchers better than Shoemaker, and I have complained in the past that the quantity of back-of-the-rotation pitchers has been annoying. . .

Having "depth" at the back of the rotation is basically useless if the top half isn't up to par.

Find me a replacement that is better and I will stop complaining.

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I forgive the guy for getting hit in the head and almost dying and I forgive him for a doctor misdiagnosing the problem.  Like I said it's a good gamble. 

Get me someone better for the price and I am ok with it.  Right now it looks like we are just dumping salary despite pitching being a position of need.

This is how I feel about it.  He had an injury that was incredibly difficult to diagnose.  I think they went in to do one surgery and found the actual problem.  I understand the people on here that are risk adverse and want a different pitcher.  But if most of his issues were based on this one injury, it is tough to call him injury prone.  

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Find me a replacement that is better and I will stop complaining.

Or you can wait to complain until Shoemaker is signed by another team and we don’t upgrade.  

[Dtwncbad]

24 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Find me a replacement that is better and I will stop complaining.

Go to fangraphs and sort starting pitchers 2016-2018. Sort by any stat you think is a good measurement.

And tell me how many pitchers rank higher than Shoemaker.

Then come back her and let's discuss if it is hard to find pitchers better, if it is unreasonable to expect the Angels to find someone better.

[Jay]

56 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It’s like Chuck pays some of these people to be repetitive.

 

55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It’s like Chuck pays some of these people to be repetitive.  

I agree

[Stradling]

Just now, Jay said:

 

I agree

It was intentional,  

[hangin n wangin]

55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This is how I feel about it.  He had an injury that was incredibly difficult to diagnose.  I think they went in to do one surgery and found the actual problem.  I understand the people on here that are risk adverse and want a different pitcher.  But if most of his issues were based on this one injury, it is tough to call him injury prone.  

He never had pitched more than 160 innings. Even before his injury.

not necessarily saying he’s injury prone, but I’m not going to give others a hard time that say he is. He’s missed a good amount of time due to nagging injuries.

[Troll Daddy]

Shoemaker is a great buy low high reward candidate. I can see the A’s or Mariners signing him. 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Or you can wait to complain until Shoemaker is signed by another team and we don’t upgrade.  

Lol. Fair enough

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Go to fangraphs and sort starting pitchers 2016-2018. Sort by any stat you think is a good measurement.

And tell me how many pitchers rank higher than Shoemaker.

Then come back her and let's discuss if it is hard to find pitchers better, if it is unreasonable to expect the Angels to find someone better.

We haven't had many better the last three years.  If they are so easy to find why haven't we found them?

[AngelStew43]

Shoemaker to the Nationals also makes sense.  He's a great buy low candidate for a number 5 starter.

[notherhalo]

what is the point if we are not expected to compete next season?

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

This is how I feel about it.  He had an injury that was incredibly difficult to diagnose.  I think they went in to do one surgery and found the actual problem.  I understand the people on here that are risk adverse and want a different pitcher.  But if most of his issues were based on this one injury, it is tough to call him injury prone.  

^^^^

[WeaverFever]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Or you can wait to complain until Shoemaker is signed by another team and we don’t upgrade.  

At what time do we begin to worry? All offseason we have heard we are trying to improve. But at what time do you pull the trigger. You don’t want to wait for things to go south, and something irrational.... or risk not improving at all. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

This is how I feel about it.  He had an injury that was incredibly difficult to diagnose.  I think they went in to do one surgery and found the actual problem.  I understand the people on here that are risk adverse and want a different pitcher.  But if most of his issues were based on this one injury, it is tough to call him injury prone.  

How about if we ignore the injuries and simply decide a healthy Shoemaker is not really all that exciting in the first place.  He certainly is worthy of a rotation spot on a team, but when you have a boatload of #4 types, the project is to replace guys like Shoemaker with better pitchers. 

[Angelsjunky]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they didn't even have a back of the rotation last year with 3 guys getting them 435 of their starter innings and 13 other guys giving them 370.  

their opportunities to improve the top of the rotation for 2019 were slim to none for 2019.  Unless of course you consider Keuchel a top of the rotation guy which I don't.  So once Corbin got paid about 30 mil more than he should have it's a moot point.  

You can win without a dominant rotation.  It's the one area where you can be solid/good and still get to the playoffs and go deep.  But it sure as hell helps to have at least one guy that is a true ace.  I think that will be the last piece of the puzzle for the halos.   Once they shore up a few positions on offense and get Ohtani back healthy as well as solidify the pen, they'll make that trade for a truly dominant starter.  I can also see them signing one in the next couple of years as well.  But that #1 guy will be something we do prior to 2021 or maybe 2022.  

They're not going to do it before a few of their prospects get going though.  

It would be nice if our system could produce a dominant starter though.  When's the last time that happened?  Weaver?  

Depends what you mean by "dominant." Weaver and Lackey are the best pitchers the org has produced in the last two decades, and neither was a true ace. Weaver had a few years as a #1 but his center of gravity was more of a #2; same with Lackey. Before them, you have Chuck Finley who was very good for quite awhile, but also a #2 type. Same with Mike Witt. So maybe you have to go all the way back to Frank Tanana, who came up with the Angels in the early 70s and was pretty dominant for a few years before an injury turned him into more of a mid-rotation type.

Canning might be the next in the line of Witt-Finley-Lackey-Weaver. Suarez and Barria look more like #3-5s, same with Sandoval. Who knows about C Rod, Soriano, Hernandez, etc. I suppose Ohtani is the best chance for a true ace, but he isn't really homegrown.

[Angelsjunky]

Anyhow, the problem the OP points out is something I've also mentioned for awhile. The Angels have some solid mid-rotation guys and a handful of back-end rotation guys, no truly dominant starters - except for Ohtani. But as someone pointed out to me, only a few teams have Max Scherzers and Chris Sales. In fact, consider the number of 5+ fWAR pitchers in each of the last five years:

2018: 11 (deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Corbin, Cole, Bauer, Severino, Nola, Kluber, Carrasco)

2017: 7 (Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Severino, Strasburg, Carrasco, Greinke)

2016: 8 (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Scherzer, Cueto, Verlander, Porcello, Kluber)

2015: 13 (Kershaw, Arrieta, Price, Scherzer, Sale, Keuchel, Greinke, Kluber, Cole, Archer, Bumgarner, deGrom, Lester)

2014: 11 (Kershaw, Kluber, Hernandez, Price, Hughes, Lester, Zimmermann, Scherzer, Sale, Quintana, Arrieta)

So that's a total of 26 different pitchers who have had 5+ fWAR seasons in the last five; 10 per year, or 5 unique ones per year.

And consider the number of pitchers with multiple 5 fWAR seasons within those five years:

5: Scherzer, Kluber

4: Sale

3: Kershaw

2: Verlander, Lester, Arrieta, Cole, Severino, Greinke, Carrasco, deGrom

(As an aside, Kluber is hugely underrated. He leads the majors in fWAR over the last five years with 31.0, just ahead of Kershaw and Scherzer at 30.8, Sale at 30.5).

So who are truly dominant, aces? Schezer, Kluber, and Sale, obviously (especialy considering Sale's one year not at 5+ was 4.9). Kershaw is declining and may not be in the same category - but we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Verlander has revived his career; Severino has only been full time for a couple years and very dominant. Same with Carrasco. Nola and Bauer just broke out. DeGrom was so good it is hard not to include him, but needs consistency. 

So that's 10 guys who are either true aces or look probable to be true aces. But then it starts becoming questionable. Strasburg He's inconsistent. Corbin? We need to see if he can maintain those numbers with reduced velocity. Cole? Similar, I believe. Greinke, Arrieta, Lester? Old. The rest are mostly very good pitchers with some kind of tarnish (Syndergaard), or maybe they just had a really good year (e.g. Porcello).

So I would say that at any given time, there are about 10 true #1s, or truly dominant starters in the majors, maybe another 5-10 who are borderline, and another 5-10 who might have a #1 type season in them, but are really just good #2s (e.g. David Price types).

Shohei Ohtani has the ability to be in that group of ten, but is unlikely to do so on a consistent basis, if only because he's unlikely to start more than 25-28 starts in a year.

[Docwaukee]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Depends what you mean by "dominant." Weaver and Lackey are the best pitchers the org has produced in the last two decades, and neither was a true ace. Weaver had a few years as a #1 but his center of gravity was more of a #2; same with Lackey. Before them, you have Chuck Finley who was very good for quite awhile, but also a #2 type. Same with Mike Witt. So maybe you have to go all the way back to Frank Tanana, who came up with the Angels in the early 70s and was pretty dominant for a few years before an injury turned him into more of a mid-rotation type.

Canning might be the next in the line of Witt-Finley-Lackey-Weaver. Suarez and Barria look more like #3-5s, same with Sandoval. Who knows about C Rod, Soriano, Hernandez, etc. I suppose Ohtani is the best chance for a true ace, but he isn't really homegrown.

that's kinda crazy.  I was always so hopeful of Richards and that one season was such a tease.  

 

[Lou]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

I forgive the guy for getting hit in the head and almost dying and I forgive him for a doctor misdiagnosing the problem.  Like I said it's a good gamble. 

Get me someone better for the price and I am ok with it.  Right now it looks like we are just dumping salary despite pitching being a position of need.

we had 7 starters better than him last year.  it shouldn't be too difficult a task. 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, WeaverFever said:

At what time do we begin to worry? All offseason we have heard we are trying to improve. But at what time do you pull the trigger. You don’t want to wait for things to go south, and something irrational.... or risk not improving at all. 

we are closer to the end of the last World Series than we are the next Spring Training 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, WeaverFever said:

At what time do we begin to worry?

about 3 years ago

[Blarg]

41 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, the problem the OP points out is something I've also mentioned for awhile. The Angels have some solid mid-rotation guys and a handful of back-end rotation guys, no truly dominant starters - except for Ohtani. But as someone pointed out to me, only a few teams have Max Scherzers and Chris Sales. In fact, consider the number of 5+ fWAR pitchers in each of the last five years:

2018: 11 (deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Corbin, Cole, Bauer, Severino, Nola, Kluber, Carrasco)

2017: 7 (Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Severino, Strasburg, Carrasco, Greinke)

2016: 8 (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Scherzer, Cueto, Verlander, Porcello, Kluber)

2015: 13 (Kershaw, Arrieta, Price, Scherzer, Sale, Keuchel, Greinke, Kluber, Cole, Archer, Bumgarner, deGrom, Lester)

2014: 11 (Kershaw, Kluber, Hernandez, Price, Hughes, Lester, Zimmermann, Scherzer, Sale, Quintana, Arrieta)

So that's a total of 26 different pitchers who have had 5+ fWAR seasons in the last five; 10 per year, or 5 unique ones per year.

And consider the number of pitchers with multiple 5 fWAR seasons within those five years:

5: Scherzer, Kluber

4: Sale

3: Kershaw

2: Verlander, Lester, Arrieta, Cole, Severino, Greinke, Carrasco, deGrom

(As an aside, Kluber is hugely underrated. He leads the majors in fWAR over the last five years with 31.0, just ahead of Kershaw and Scherzer at 30.8, Sale at 30.5).

So who are truly dominant, aces? Schezer, Kluber, and Sale, obviously (especialy considering Sale's one year not at 5+ was 4.9). Kershaw is declining and may not be in the same category - but we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Verlander has revived his career; Severino has only been full time for a couple years and very dominant. Same with Carrasco. Nola and Bauer just broke out. DeGrom was so good it is hard not to include him, but needs consistency. 

So that's 10 guys who are either true aces or look probable to be true aces. But then it starts becoming questionable. Strasburg He's inconsistent. Corbin? We need to see if he can maintain those numbers with reduced velocity. Cole? Similar, I believe. Greinke, Arrieta, Lester? Old. The rest are mostly very good pitchers with some kind of tarnish (Syndergaard), or maybe they just had a really good year (e.g. Porcello).

So I would say that at any given time, there are about 10 true #1s, or truly dominant starters in the majors, maybe another 5-10 who are borderline, and another 5-10 who might have a #1 type season in them, but are really just good #2s (e.g. David Price types).

Shohei Ohtani has the ability to be in that group of ten, but is unlikely to do so on a consistent basis, if only because he's unlikely to start more than 25-28 starts in a year.

Hell of a post. People seem to think a #1 is just pick the last guy who they saw pitch well in a season and that is the guy to target. But as you point out that is a moving target for most of the arms out there and the volatility is matched with lack of durability. 

For most teams their #1 is their best pitcher regardless of record or stats. Where they stack up against the best 5 to 10 in baseball is both unfair and unrealistic. For one, they probably will never pitch against that tier because of rotation and schedule. So what you really need, really need, is a bunch of guys that are much better than league average but don't need to be superstars because that is not their opponent for their 33 starts a year. Their opponents for the most part is the mid to bottom tier of pitchers with an occasional marquee matchup.

To get to the playoffs you need to win games, lots of games. Not just five or ten against the leagues best pitchers.