OC Register: Angels planning to allow farm system to continue to grow

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Because they trust their ability to develop those tools into useful major leaguers.  They trust their ability to recognize talent in the draft and to develop those skills.  

Obviously, but how is that different than every other team, specifically those already ahead of us?  Why are we expecting such gains that we would bypass them by such a significant margin and jump 5-7 positions on that list?   

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im not being argumentative, im just really trying to understand the optimism on the short term

Jo Adell posting a .900 OPS across three levels in his first full season at age 19. 
David Fletcher hitting .350/.394/.559/.953 and then playing to 2 WAR in a half season in the bigs. 
Taylor Ward's .350 BA and .450 OBP in two levels while playing a new position. 
Matt Thaiss finally showing some power with a .467 SLG. 
Jaime Barria giving us 130 innings of 3.40 ERA ball and 2.5 WAR. 
Justin Anderson coming from literally nowhere to become a late-inning reliever, and he, Buttrey, and Middleton having 17 seasons worth of collective control. 
Luis Rengifo having a 1:1 BB:K ratio and ascending three levels. 
Jose Suarez ascending three levels and looking basically like Jaime Barria from the left side. 
Griffin Canning dominating A/AA and looking MLB ready for '19.

The rate we had guys breakout and far exceed expectations was so frequent and to such a high degree, it's hard not to be optimistic on the short-term.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Jo Adell posting a .900 OPS across three levels in his first full season at age 19. 
David Fletcher hitting .350/.394/.559/.953 and then playing to 2 WAR in a half season in the bigs. 
Taylor Ward's .350 BA and .450 OBP in two levels while playing a new position. 
Matt Thaiss finally showing some power with a .467 SLG. 
Jaime Barria giving us 130 innings of 3.40 ERA ball and 2.5 WAR. 
Justin Anderson coming from literally nowhere to become a late-inning reliever, and he, Buttrey, and Middleton having 17 seasons worth of collective control. 
Luis Rengifo having a 1:1 BB:K ratio and ascending three levels. 
Jose Suarez ascending three levels and looking basically like Jaime Barria from the left side. 
Griffin Canning dominating A/AA and looking MLB ready for '19.

The rate we had guys breakout and far exceed expectations was so frequent and to such a high degree, it's hard not to be optimistic on the short-term.

Do we still consider Fletcher and Barria prospects?  I dont.    Fletcher hitting 350 with a near 400 OBP?  Not to mention a higher SLG than Upton and second only to Trout in OPS?  I think you just proved my point about unrealistic optimism as he didnt get close to that in nearly half a seasons ABs.

We have 11 rated prospects, a very low number comparatively speaking in terms of quality versus quantity scale.  Either guys not on that 11 are going to have to announce their presence with authority so to speak, or those on it are going to have to blow away projections to jump us into the top 5 in the next couple of years.  Again long term i get it, shoter term, not so much.    

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

Do we still consider Fletcher and Barria prospects?  I dont.    Fletcher hitting 350 with a near 400 OBP?  Not to mention a higher SLG than Upton and second only to Trout in OPS?  I think you just proved my point about unrealistic optimism as he didnt get close to that in nearly half a seasons ABs.

We have 11 rated prospects, a very low number comparatively speaking in terms of quality versus quantity scale.  Either guys not on that 11 are going to have to announce their presence with authority so to speak, or those on it are going to have to blow away projections to jump us into the top 5 in the next couple of years.  Again long term i get it, shoter term, not so much.    

They’ve got 5-6 years of control still, pretty much like a prospect. 

The point is we have young prospects and players contributing to our big-league club or turning a big development corner on the farm for the first time in seriously, probably a decade. 

The systems in place seem to be working, unless all of those guys just happened to have a fluke year last year. 

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

They’ve got 5-6 years of control still, pretty much like a prospect. 

The point is we have young prospects and players contributing to our big-league club or turning a big development corner on the farm for the first time in seriously, probably a decade. 

The systems in place seem to be working, unless all of those guys just happened to have a fluke year last year. 

But help him "understand the optimism"!!!

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

Some people read war and peace and come away thinking its a simple adventure story, others read the back of a chewing gum wrapper and unlock the mysteries of the universe.  

You look at that and see optimism, i look at it and see  that realistically the team we are chasing solidly above us both at the ML and farm levels and the other team that beat us this last year in a virtual tie with us and we all know they will be making deals. 

It would take 5-10 fringe guys suddenly becoming names to watch for us to move up without significant additions to that farm.  Considering that we are drafting 15th, solid middle of the pack, behind 7 teams already rated higher than we are, where are those upgrades coming from?  Are we literally basing all of this on the hope that the toolsy kids emerge?

Im not being argumentative, im just really trying to understand the optimism on the short term.

And some people read War and Peace and don't understand a damn thing they read. 

I get that you're not trying to be argumentative and I'm certain you will take THIS response as a personal attack but when a person makes no effort to actually pay mind to what's been said it's pointless to try to engage them in actual debate so -- forgive me if this comes off as pointed.

Nothing in my post was pinning its hopes to the farm system -- in fact the last thing I said was NOTHING is guaranteed.   Still, you ramble on about farm system rankings as if that was the central point of my post -- it isn't..  But since you brought it up again..  Tell us again how it's ridiculous to think the Angels could move into the top 5 (from 10 according to BBA aka... the experts), while at the same time posting how when it's all said and done the Mariners have a top 5 system...   Do you see the duplicity in making one statement then the other?    

You understand that farm systems aren't static right?   You keep talking about the teams above us -- well, you realize some of them are above us because their talent is closer to being MLB ready and more established -- it's not like the Blue Jays are going to have a 70 grade future value once Vlad Jr is recalled.  That constant churn plays into the rankings and is one reason why the Angels are well positioned...  Pretty much every team ahead of us in those FV rankings have been building their farm systems for longer than the Angels have.  Some of those teams will be graduating players and taking a hit rankings wise, it's just how that works..  That's not to say they can't produce more or that some team just starting to rebuild won't pass the Angels by but FFS, let's not pretend that because someone has more prospects NOW they will automatically still have more in the near future.

Now as to my post ...  I pointed out that every team in the AL West is facing decisions that could massively impact their near future -- thus my linking to the team links at Cots.  Houston has a lot of free agents coming and salary decisions to make in the near future as it relates to arbitration.  Farm wise, they have ONE more grade 60 FV guy than the Angels -- two less 50s, one less 45 -- their big edge in FV dollars is the TEN MORE 40 FV guys in their system.  A 40 FV is essentially a back up or lottery pick type.   Thus my pointing out the Angels deficiency is the easiest category to improve on.  They don't need to become "big names" like you are attempting to argue -- 40 grade FV guys are the sort of prospects we moved for Kinsler and Upton -- low level lottery type picks and fourth OF upsides.  Ask any of your experts and they will tell you the same thing.  The reason we don't have more of them is because two years ago our farm was complete and utter shit....  ours is a farm system in it's infancy -- the fact that they rank as well as they do is a damn near miracle and possibly a reason why people need to temper their enthusiasm.

But again, it's not about the farm system alone -- it's everything.  Every team in the AL West has their questions -- none bigger than the Angels with Mike Trout.   If he bolts everything is upside down.  But if he stays then the Angels will have the money -- and the prospect capital to improve...  Say what you will... despite the whiny bullshit that argues the opposite their ownership has shown a greater willingness to spend and reach on FA's than any other AL West team since Texas during the Tom Hicks era.   These are MULTIPLE things they potentially have going for them ... ALL of which position them in the near future.   Texas hasn't been as free wheeling with their money since Hicks.  Their farm system was decimated by recent postseason runs that saw them trade away most of their top end talent -- the bulk of their FV comes from their 26, 40 FV guys...   Seattle's got Dipoto and will likely change course three more times in the next few years if history is any indication.  And while they have spent in the past, their ownership has failed to match Arte in that area and we have seen how their GM drafts -- obviously they aren't done dealing, and they have already improved their prospect capital but at the cost of their MLB talent -- they are significantly further away than they were at the end of last season.  Oakland is banking on a ton of guys coming back from TJ, they will always be in a constant state of build and sell off -- it sucks because their ownership group has big time money but it's doubtful they pay to keep their team together ...  and FWIW -- I like their farm system better than most people.

So to recap, my intent was to look at everything -- not some inane "OMG ALL OUR FARM GUYZ WILL BE SUPERSTARS!!1!!!"    The reality is I'm a MASSIVE believer in attrition being king when it comes to farm systems -- my hesitance (if you can call it that) to trade away prospect capital is less about the belief that they will be trading away stars and more to do with the reality that most aren't going to be and that they need to stack the deck with as many prospects as possible.  You could read that as me believing the farm system to still be deficient and be closer to how I view things than this "OMG why so optimistic" slant of yours.

When push comes to shove... I agree with what Doc said, I believe we are on the right track, particularly when you look at what everyone else in the division will have to do.   I'm also confident we can and will spend.. particularly once they decide enough is enough with AP.   

3 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

Well, it also helps being an optimist in general...unless you are generally optimistic you are not, by default, going to view things that could break one way or the other optimistically.

Helping you "understand the optimism" is a bit of a fools errand since it helps, initially, to be optimistic at all...

Flop has no problem with optimism when it comes to spending money and adding FAs.   Apparently spending money, is more of a sure thing.   Recent Angels history shows otherwise but to each his own.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

54 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im not asking anyone to make me an optimist about it, im asking them to explain why they are.  
From where i sit it seems its all based on a group of toolsy kids suddenly making the grade that they do not appear to make as of today and how thats going to translate into wins at the MLB level in 19 or maybe even 20.  That would take a pretty mercurial rise to expect it would seem. 
Long term (21 and beyond) i get it,  short term i dont. 

????   

I can't speak for anyone else but I think most of the people unwilling to throw money around feel that way because they AREN'T optimistic about overtaking the Astros for the division and feel the team would be better served by being able to spend when they CAN compete.   Some might even be looking towards the projections, seeing where the Angels rank in relation to the other WC contenders and seeing a path to the postseason that would't require handcuffing themselves.   

Now, before you do the usual "I'm not asking them to go ham", reality is that it would take a bigger dip into FA than you want to believe.   Look no further than the Yankees possibly having to add a third year to try to get Happ to join them -- and that's a team that won 100 games and made the postseason -- a team he already played for.

Something something War and Peace...

[Inside Pitch]

55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Because they trust their ability to develop those tools into useful major leaguers.  They trust their ability to recognize talent in the draft and to develop those skills.  

Based on what Eppler has said this off-season I think it has more to do with their realistic expectations of what they can achieve and the costs involved.  If they are playing the risk .vs reward game that most teams are playing these days then you have to think that they are making a decision between spending 200 million to maybe win 88 games to MAYBE get in the postseason .vs spending 170 million to try to win 86 games and MAYBE get into the postseason.

[Inside Pitch]

41 minutes ago, floplag said:

Do we still consider Fletcher and Barria prospects?  I dont.    Fletcher hitting 350 with a near 400 OBP?  Not to mention a higher SLG than Upton and second only to Trout in OPS?  I think you just proved my point about unrealistic optimism as he didnt get close to that in nearly half a seasons ABs.

We have 11 rated prospects, a very low number comparatively speaking in terms of quality versus quantity scale.  Either guys not on that 11 are going to have to announce their presence with authority so to speak, or those on it are going to have to blow away projections to jump us into the top 5 in the next couple of years.  Again long term i get it, shoter term, not so much.    

And you just made my point about reading something and not understanding it...       He's not arguing that Fletcher will hit .350 or outslug Upton.  He pointed out his numbers in AAA and his 2.0 WAR as a MLB player.

You're either not bothering to make any attempt to listen to others or purposely trying to misrepresent what they are saying..    Either way it does nothing to actually create discussion.

And where are you getting this 11 rated prospects from?   

Edited December 12, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Angels focused on trades more than free agents this off season. 

I had mentioned Gray and Cervelli in other threads as possibilities 

[WeatherWonk]

I've worked on a farm and continue to have a large vegetable garden each year, in two different countries.

Watching things grow on the farm is slow and boring. Sometimes rewarding, sometimes not. 

Miracle-Gro is a fool's fertilizer. All leaves, no fruit.

 

[floplag]

30 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

And you just made my point about reading something and not understanding it...       He's not arguing that Fletcher will hit .350 or outslug Upton.  He pointed out his numbers in AAA and his 2.0 WAR as a MLB player.

You're either not bothering to make any attempt to listen to others or purposely trying to misrepresent what they are saying..    Either way it does nothing to actually create discussion.

And where are you getting this 11 rated prospects from?   

Im aware he used minor stats, in the majors which i referenced he was 100 points below that as is typically the case.   

I guess ive got my answer, we are counting on blind faith that this group of kids will somehow surpass all current expectations and projections. 

You know understanding, or making an effort to, is a two way street.  Ive listed sources for my opinions so they werent pulled out of my arse, ive explained the reasons why i felt how i do, Ive explained that i get the plan long term, Ive said i wouldnt trade away half the farm, ive said i wouldnt overpay for premier FA, ive listed who i would and would not go after and why.... ive agreed with virtually everything you and others suggest regarding sustainable winning aside from one thing... one simple point... I do not understand or support the idea of sacrificing of the short term and ignoring the implications of doing so.  

So what if we probably cant beat Hou right now, do we not even try?  

Well good luck with that.  My opinion hasnt changed, and wont till i see results but ill stop bothering folks with alternative views, its just not worth it.   

[Stradling]

Holy shit you are dense.  

[Lou]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Im aware he used minor stats

"Do we still consider Fletcher and Barria prospects?  I dont.    Fletcher hitting 350 with a near 400 OBP?  Not to mention a higher SLG than Upton and second only to Trout in OPS?  I think you just proved my point about unrealistic optimism as he didnt get close to that in nearly half a seasons ABs."

 

sorry, flop, but I'm calling poppycock

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

And some people read War and Peace and don't understand a damn thing they read. 

I get that you're not trying to be argumentative and I'm certain you will take THIS response as a personal attack but when a person makes no effort to actually pay mind to what's been said it's pointless to try to engage them in actual debate so -- forgive me if this comes off as pointed.

Nothing in my post was pinning its hopes to the farm system -- in fact the last thing I said was NOTHING is guaranteed.   Still, you ramble on about farm system rankings as if that was the central point of my post -- it isn't..  But since you brought it up again..  Tell us again how it's ridiculous to think the Angels could move into the top 5 (from 10 according to BBA aka... the experts), while at the same time posting how when it's all said and done the Mariners have a top 5 system...   Do you see the duplicity in making one statement then the other?    

You understand that farm systems aren't static right?   You keep talking about the teams above us -- well, you realize some of them are above us because their talent is closer to being MLB ready and more established -- it's not like the Blue Jays are going to have a 70 grade future value once Vlad Jr is recalled.  That constant churn plays into the rankings and is one reason why the Angels are well positioned...  Pretty much every team ahead of us in those FV rankings have been building their farm systems for longer than the Angels have.  Some of those teams will be graduating players and taking a hit rankings wise, it's just how that works..  That's not to say they can't produce more or that some team just starting to rebuild won't pass the Angels by but FFS, let's not pretend that because someone has more prospects NOW they will automatically still have more in the near future.

Now as to my post ...  I pointed out that every team in the AL West is facing decisions that could massively impact their near future -- thus my linking to the team links at Cots.  Houston has a lot of free agents coming and salary decisions to make in the near future as it relates to arbitration.  Farm wise, they have ONE more grade 60 FV guy than the Angels -- two less 50s, one less 45 -- their big edge in FV dollars is the TEN MORE 40 FV guys in their system.  A 40 FV is essentially a back up or lottery pick type.   Thus my pointing out the Angels deficiency is the easiest category to improve on.  They don't need to become "big names" like you are attempting to argue -- 40 grade FV guys are the sort of prospects we moved for Kinsler and Upton -- low level lottery type picks and fourth OF upsides.  Ask any of your experts and they will tell you the same thing.  The reason we don't have more of them is because two years ago our farm was complete and utter shit....  ours is a farm system in it's infancy -- the fact that they rank as well as they do is a damn near miracle and possibly a reason why people need to temper their enthusiasm.

But again, it's not about the farm system alone -- it's everything.  Every team in the AL West has their questions -- none bigger than the Angels with Mike Trout.   If he bolts everything is upside down.  But if he stays then the Angels will have the money -- and the prospect capital to improve...  Say what you will... despite the whiny bullshit that argues the opposite their ownership has shown a greater willingness to spend and reach on FA's than any other AL West team since Texas during the Tom Hicks era.   These are MULTIPLE things they potentially have going for them ... ALL of which position them in the near future.   Texas hasn't been as free wheeling with their money since Hicks.  Their farm system was decimated by recent postseason runs that saw them trade away most of their top end talent -- the bulk of their FV comes from their 26, 40 FV guys...   Seattle's got Dipoto and will likely change course three more times in the next few years if history is any indication.  And while they have spent in the past, their ownership has failed to match Arte in that area and we have seen how their GM drafts -- obviously they aren't done dealing, and they have already improved their prospect capital but at the cost of their MLB talent -- they are significantly further away than they were at the end of last season.  Oakland is banking on a ton of guys coming back from TJ, they will always be in a constant state of build and sell off -- it sucks because their ownership group has big time money but it's doubtful they pay to keep their team together ...  and FWIW -- I like their farm system better than most people.

So to recap, my intent was to look at everything -- not some inane "OMG ALL OUR FARM GUYZ WILL BE SUPERSTARS!!1!!!"    The reality is I'm a MASSIVE believer in attrition being king when it comes to farm systems -- my hesitance (if you can call it that) to trade away prospect capital is less about the belief that they will be trading away stars and more to do with the reality that most aren't going to be and that they need to stack the deck with as many prospects as possible.  You could read that as me believing the farm system to still be deficient and be closer to how I view things than this "OMG why so optimistic" slant of yours.

When push comes to shove... I agree with what Doc said, I believe we are on the right track, particularly when you look at what everyone else in the division will have to do.   I'm also confident we can and will spend.. particularly once they decide enough is enough with AP.   

Flop has no problem with optimism when it comes to spending money and adding FAs.   Apparently spending money, is more of a sure thing.   Recent Angels history shows otherwise but to each his own.

I love that he just ignored all of the logic of this post and went with “blind optimism”. It is a bold straetgy when trying to defend your point.

[Lou]

I still don't get the "11 rated prospects" thing.

Anyone? 

[tdawg87]

I'm now convinced flop is trolling. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm now convinced flop is trolling. 

Yep

[Taylor]

I like how a thread about the Angels committing to improve their farm system turns into a 3+ page argument.

[floplag]

25 minutes ago, Lou said:

"Do we still consider Fletcher and Barria prospects?  I dont.    Fletcher hitting 350 with a near 400 OBP?  Not to mention a higher SLG than Upton and second only to Trout in OPS?  I think you just proved my point about unrealistic optimism as he didnt get close to that in nearly half a seasons ABs."

 

sorry, flop, but I'm calling poppycock

the point was that he didnt do that in the bigs and isnt likely to, though ill admit i worded it poorly. 
aside from that call it whatever you want, im over it.   

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Im aware he used minor stats, in the majors which i referenced he was 100 points below that as is typically the case.   

He did no such thing.   He made two separate statements see below...

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

David Fletcher hitting .350/.394/.559/.953 and then playing to 2 WAR in a half season in the bigs. 

He didn't project anything, he stated what he did at two different levels. 

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I guess ive got my answer, we are counting on blind faith that this group of kids will somehow surpass all current expectations and projections.  

This is exactly the sort of bush league commentary I'm talking about.   You created a false narrative that hasn't been said by anyone.   You asked him what his optimism was based on and he gave you specific reasons why -- there was no projecting anything...   You are flat out making shit up ... 

1 hour ago, floplag said:

You know understanding, or making an effort to, is a two way street.  Ive listed sources for my opinions so they werent pulled out of my arse, ive explained the reasons why i felt how i do, Ive explained that i get the plan long term, Ive said i wouldnt trade away half the farm, ive said i wouldnt overpay for premier FA, ive listed who i would and would not go after and why.... ive agreed with virtually everything you and others suggest regarding sustainable winning aside from one thing... one simple point... I do not understand or support the idea of sacrificing of the short term and ignoring the implications of doing so. 

Oh please.  Nobody is trying to change your mind on anything, nor is anyone attempting to silence you.  At the same time, you're continuously begging people to "help you understand their optimism" while ignoring what they are telling you in favor of your own made up commentary...  See above if you need a recent example...

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Well good luck with that.  My opinion hasnt changed, and wont till i see results but ill stop bothering folks with alternative views, its just not worth it.   

Begging people to help you understand then turning around and acting like people are trying to change your opinion...   Brilliant.   

Kudo's for the patented "not worth it" closing...   

Clockwork.

[Inside Pitch]

45 minutes ago, Lou said:

I still don't get the "11 rated prospects" thing.

Anyone? 

????????????????   I was just as bewildered.

44 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm now convinced flop is trolling. 

Gotta be.. 

34 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I like how a thread about the Angels committing to improve their farm system turns into a 3+ page argument.

I'm gonna need for you to make me understand...   But rest assured -- my opinion will not be changed.  

[Stradling]

@Inside Pitch I can guarantee you that if the Angels were the team that had the 10 guys rated 40 level prospects, flop would bitch about what the team is going to do with all those 4th outfielder types.   But since it’s the Astros then the Angels are doomed because experts.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

@Inside Pitch I can guarantee you that if the Angels were the team that had the 10 guys rated 40 level prospects, flop would bitch about what the team is going to do with all those 4th outfielder types.   But since it’s the Astros then the Angels are doomed because experts.  

proving once again that you dont know as much as you think you do about everyone else.   
but im sure that wasnt a personal attack though right? 

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

proving once again that you dont know as much as you think you do about everyone else.   
but im sure that wasnt a personal attack though right? 

Dude you’re pathetic, which is a personal attack.  Wear it, own it, I don’t really care.   You aren’t here to discuss, you’re hear to be clod and you’re doing a super job of it.   Lifetime would be impressed with your level of trolling.  This has been the off season of you being “That Guy” congrats.