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OC Register: Angels planning to allow farm system to continue to grow


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20 minutes ago, floplag said:

come on man, waiting to get to top 5 farm to spend means waiting a couple years at least.   
and again i never asked for rash.   i never asked for stupid.  i never asked for going ham.   i just asked for them to try to win and keep Trout/Simmons.  Some of you better hope you are right about your crystal balls

Again. Have you listened to any of the rumors? Angels have been in on Corbin, Eovaldi, etc.. what are you not understanding ? No offense but sometimes you bitch, just to bitch. 

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59 minutes ago, floplag said:

and thats happened how often for us?  or any other team drafting mid round?    If we have the money to throw at Trout we have the money to build around Trout.  
You guys can meow (whatever the hades that means) and whatever all you want but any plan that tosses the next couple/few years on the hope that these kids break out and potentially blows up this core of players is not something im prepared to support.   Its not necessary, its not mandatory, its a choice.  I choose to not support it. 

tumblr_o12szlRLyf1rqe0rbo1_540.gif

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1 hour ago, floplag said:

And if they dont find some magic no expert thinks they have today?  Where does that leave us ?  You are assuming 100% best case scenario. 

Where does it say the experts don't think they have it? Many of those guys named were just drafted. Adell wasn't ranked until after his rookie season. Then when the pre season rankings came out he was in the 50-75 range. Now he's considered top 20 and predicted by some to possibly be top 5 by the time so the preseason rankings come out. Griffin Canning was previously unranked. That doesn't mean they "found magic". It just means they were previously unproven despite having the necessary tools. Point being the Angels system could be top 5 very quick. And Eppler specifically said they are willing to spend for the right guys. They do want to win now, but they aren't going to use major prospect currency or spend $140M on a pitcher thats dealt with injuries constantly his whole career. 

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From 2004 to 2009, we won 5 division titles in 6 years with the following core of players:

Erstad - drafted 1.1 by the halos.  Solid player.  Roy Halladay picked 17th in that draft had the highest WAR of the 1st rounders.  Helton was 2nd with 61.2 WAR
Molina - very good defensive player with meh offense.  intl signing.  #4 prospect pre 1996. 
Kennedy - good player.  decent player.  acquired via trade at age 24 prior to the 2000 season.  Ranked #98 pre 1999 
GA - very good in his early years.  During the above stretch he was aging and pretty meh.  4th round pick by the halos. ranked #93 pre 1995
Vladdy - acquired via FAcy.  Core of the offense.  
Troy Glaus - drafted 1.3 by the halos.  Matt Anderson was picked #1 that year.  The top 1st rounder was Lance Berkman with 52.1 WAR drafted 1.16.  Ranked #36 pre 1998
Ocab - solid SS.  mid tier free agent signing.
Figgy - acquired via trade with the rockies for Kimera Bartee.  
Juan Rivera - ok player.  intl signing. ranked #55 pre 2003. 
Mike Napoli - 17th round pick.  nice player. 
Kendrys Morales - intl sign from Cuba.  very good hitter.  ranked #76 pre 2005
Howie - very solid 2bman.  drafted in the 10th round.  ranked #12 pre 2006
Mathis - terrible offensive player but known for his ability to call a game.  drafted 1.33.  Best players in that draft were Mauer 1.1 (55.1 WAR), Tex 1.5 (51.8 WAR), and David Wright 1s.38 (50.4 WAR).  Ranked #22 by BA pre 2004.  
Torii - FA signing toward the end of the run.  very good ROI.  
Aybar - intl sign.  solid SS.  ranked as high as #39 pre 2005.  got in toward the end of the run

Lackey - 2nd round pick by the halos.   Very good.  #2 starter during our nice run
Escobar - solid starter.  acquired as a sort of under the radar free agent.  
Ervin Santana - solid starter.  intl signing.  #29 prospect by BA pre 2004
Jered Weaver - solid starter during our run.  drafted 1.12.  2nd best player in the first round.  Verlander was drafted 1.2.  Matt Bush was drafted first and Phil Humber 3rd.    ranked #57 pre 2006.  

Krod - intl free agent.  borderline HOF closer.  ranked #10 pre 2003
Scott Shields  - 38th round pick.  

the rest of the guys from those years were mostly parts.  1-2 yr free agent deals.  guys off waivers.  minor trades.  

During that time we also had an excellent farm system that included McPherson 2nd round pick (ranked as high as the #12 prospect by BA), Kotchman 1.13 pick (ranked as high as #6), Brandon Wood 1.23 pick (#3 prospect pre 2006), Alberto Callaspo - had some contribution after we dipotoed him (intl sign.  #71 prospect pre 2004), Nicky Adenhart 14th round pick (#24 prospect pre 2008), hank conger 1.25 pick.  (#88 pre 2007).  Sean Rodriguez 3rd round pick (#85 pre 2007), Jordan Walden 12th round pick (#81 pre 2008).  

the reason I brought up some of the prospects that didn't really work out is because they were well regarded and available when the major league team was very good.  If there were mistakes during the 2004-09 run, it was that we didn't used that prospect surplus to obtain the final piece or two.  That MOTO bat in particular was elusive.  

But as you run though that list of players, it's easy to see that it was largely home grown.  I included some draft history on guys drafted in the first round to show that you don't need to have the top pick to get a good player.  Sure, it helps, but it's not a must.  

Pretty much every team over the last 15+ years that has had a run of multiple years of playoff contention has been largely home grown.  

We have a nice farm system right now but it's not so good that we can use it in trade to fill all the major league holes.  The way it fills those holes is to continue to let it develop and actually provide major league players.  As that happens, I trust that Eppler will fill in around them appropriately and when the time is right, he will trade some to make us even better.  

We'll see incremental improvement over the next couple years with a chance to win a WC spot and then a window will open up.  My guess is that it will be in 2021.  Maybe 2022.  

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This isn’t very far from what the Yankees maintain. They always have strong international presence, a deep farm, and deep pockets. They’re never afraid to trade prospects, never afraid to sign free agents.

It just takes time to get our farm depth to where it needs to allow Eppler to both rely on it to build a core and dip into it for trades.

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29 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

It would be very easy to protect the farm if Arte would at least go up to the luxury tax threshold. Just operate under the premise that you wont sign anyone over a three year contract.

The Yankees seem to be the masters at maintaining their farm and spending when they need to.

Although even the Skanks are inconsistent with this, hence the dry years from 1982-1993 and the first half of this decade.

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12 hours ago, floplag said:

So apparently he wants to get it to the top 5 then use financial power... i guess we have our answer on the next few years casue that aint happening anytime soon barring a Trout trade.
You dont jump from 10-12 to 5 in a couple years without losing a lot of games.  

We got from 30 to 10 by just being mediocre. I guess I'm not really countering your point...

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

AL West title.  

possible WC all years before that.  Outside shot at the division in 2020.  

Sometimes I wonder if people realize that every team has decisions to make the next few years.   Some teams will be facing some pretty jarring FA issues soon and starring down increases in salaries.   As a whole the entire AL West will have payroll flexibility in the near future -- will everyone be willing to spend as the Angels have done during Moreno's tenure?  Time will tell.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xQd7naUwaSXOYJm2p-ePDnlONBbJSgiLqbvgCcS9EEU/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IL-Jgr8BwgBDgg03nPtSgsQ1mvAuzHkG6GDlWvSGUzw/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1br6ECRGkp-0zvlX9vavbGduqJkLfz6KNtZxWgSkfAlA/pubhtml

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

When looking at the last link, people should consider the number of Angels' 40 grade prospects...  11...   That's the lowest ring listed, the easiest level to attain and the column that will most easily be impacted by guys in rookie ball establishing themselves in Low A/High A...    There is plenty of reason to believe the Angels will be well positioned to contend for the AL West in the near future.   They'll have the money, they'll have the prospect capital and if Mike Trout signs an extension they will have the best player on the planet.

Nothing is guaranteed, they best stack the deck any which way they can.

 

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5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Sometimes I wonder if people realize that every team has decisions to make the next few years.   Some teams will be facing some pretty jarring FA issues soon and starring down increases in salaries.   As a whole the entire AL West will have payroll flexibility in the near future -- will everyone be willing to spend as the Angels have done during Moreno's tenure?  Time will tell.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xQd7naUwaSXOYJm2p-ePDnlONBbJSgiLqbvgCcS9EEU/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IL-Jgr8BwgBDgg03nPtSgsQ1mvAuzHkG6GDlWvSGUzw/pubhtml
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1br6ECRGkp-0zvlX9vavbGduqJkLfz6KNtZxWgSkfAlA/pubhtml

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

When looking at the last link, people should consider the number of Angels' 40 grade prospects...  11...   That's the lowest ring listed, the easiest level to attain and the column that will most easily be impacted by guys in rookie ball establishing themselves in Low A/High A...    There is plenty of reason to believe the Angels will be well positioned to contend for the AL West in the near future.   They'll have the money, they'll have the prospect capital and if Mike Trout signs an extension they will have the best player on the planet.

Nothing is guaranteed, they best stack the deck any which way they can.

 

Some people read war and peace and come away thinking its a simple adventure story, others read the back of a chewing gum wrapper and unlock the mysteries of the universe.  

You look at that and see optimism, i look at it and see  that realistically the team we are chasing solidly above us both at the ML and farm levels and the other team that beat us this last year in a virtual tie with us and we all know they will be making deals. 

It would take 5-10 fringe guys suddenly becoming names to watch for us to move up without significant additions to that farm.  Considering that we are drafting 15th, solid middle of the pack, behind 7 teams already rated higher than we are, where are those upgrades coming from?  Are we literally basing all of this on the hope that the toolsy kids emerge?

Im not being argumentative, im just really trying to understand the optimism on the short term.

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17 minutes ago, floplag said:

Some people read war and peace and come away thinking its a simple adventure story, others read the back of a chewing gum wrapper and unlock the mysteries of the universe.  

You look at that and see optimism, i look at it and see  that realistically the team we are chasing solidly above us both at the ML and farm levels and the other team that beat us this last year in a virtual tie with us and we all know they will be making deals. 

It would take 5-10 fringe guys suddenly becoming names to watch for us to move up without significant additions to that farm.  Considering that we are drafting 15th, solid middle of the pack, behind 7 teams already rated higher than we are, where are those upgrades coming from?  Are we literally basing all of this on the hope that the toolsy kids emerge?

Im not being argumentative, im just really trying to understand the optimism on the short term.

Well, it also helps being an optimist in general...unless you are generally optimistic you are not, by default, going to view things that could break one way or the other optimistically.

Helping you "understand the optimism" is a bit of a fools errand since it helps, initially, to be optimistic at all...

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Just now, mulwin444 said:

Well, it also helps being an optimist in general...unless you are generally optimistic you are not, by default, going to view things that could break one way or the other optimistically.

Helping you "understand the optimism" is a bit of a fools errand since it helps, initially, to be optimistic at all...

Im not asking anyone to make me an optimist about it, im asking them to explain why they are.  
From where i sit it seems its all based on a group of toolsy kids suddenly making the grade that they do not appear to make as of today and how thats going to translate into wins at the MLB level in 19 or maybe even 20.  That would take a pretty mercurial rise to expect it would seem. 
Long term (21 and beyond) i get it,  short term i dont. 

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3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im not asking anyone to make me an optimist about it, im asking them to explain why they are.  
From where i sit it seems its all based on a group of toolsy kids suddenly making the grade that they do not appear to make as of today and how thats going to translate into wins at the MLB level in 19 or maybe even 20.  That would take a pretty mercurial rise to expect it would seem. 
Long term (21 and beyond) i get it,  short term i dont. 

Because they trust their ability to develop those tools into useful major leaguers.  They trust their ability to recognize talent in the draft and to develop those skills.  

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