Post 2018 Farm ratings per Fangraphs

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and that's why you need to continue to let it build and not burn it.  If it moved from 30 to 12 in 2.5 years, wouldn't it make sense that it will continue to get better if you don't mess with it?  

we graduated Fletcher, Ward, Barria and Ohtani this year and it actually got better.  

Yes and continuing to build to what?  when does the ML team become better?  Realistically speaking anyone you draft from here on isnt likely on that 21 ETA so... when are we building for?   Top 5 farm in 21, maybe compete in the majors in what, 2024/5?  

Oh and we didn't graduate Ohtani, he never wore a minor league jersey. 

[jessecrall]

I'm not sure why prospect discussions degenerate so quickly into absolute statements. There are costs and benefits to trading prospects AND to holding them. You look for opportunities. The Angels internal brass also has different expectations for their players than we do. They might believe that Brandon Marsh is a little more development away from discovering massive power that could turn him into a superstar. They might see something in Jose Suarez's delivery that suggests durability issues down the line. They might look to be aggressive but get turned down by potential trade partners. They might lean conservative but get blown away by another team overvaluing some of the Angels pieces. Who knows? I'd just try avoid blanket beliefs on all this stuff.

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Yes and continuing to build to what?  when does the ML team become better?  Realistically speaking anyone you draft from here on isnt likely on that 21 ETA so... when are we building for?   Top 5 farm in 21, maybe compete in the majors in what, 2024/5?  

Oh and we didn't graduate Ohtani, he never wore a minor league jersey. 

no.  for the love of everything decent and holy.  You continually graduate talent to fill spots if you do it right and then you fill in the other areas with free agents and eventually trades.  

you don't just hold everyone back and then suddenly flood them into the major league team.  

Where we are ranked as a farm system is irrelevant.  The point is that the farm is supplying talent to the major league club on an ongoing basis.   The more talent you accumulate, the better chance you have that this occurs.  There are a bunch of players who will start to make that jump over the next two years.  We're not basing it on any one particular draft.  The timeline we are guessing at is completely arbitrary.  I am guessing based on my knowledge of the farm, major league club, current contracts, general baseball experience and other assumptions that we'll start to see a considerable impact at the major league level in 2021.  

Ohtani was included in the fangraphs rankings last year.  That's why I included him.  Do you think that I'm just making shit up to fuel my narrative?  

I don't have an agenda here.  What I want doesn't matter.  This is what they're doing.  I just happen to agree with it because it's worked for us in the past, and has worked time and time again for other teams, and is working now for all the top teams.  

 

[CDiaz27?]

12th>30th

[Angelsjunky]

I'm 93.7% certain that floplag is Jerry Dipoto.

Or maybe he's a Russian bot.

[floplag]

Yes i must be DiPoto, for considering one trade and wanting he ML club to win, makes sense.  lol  
 

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

no.  for the love of everything decent and holy.  You continually graduate talent to fill spots if you do it right and then you fill in the other areas with free agents and eventually trades.  

you don't just hold everyone back and then suddenly flood them into the major league team.  

Where we are ranked as a farm system is irrelevant.  The point is that the farm is supplying talent to the major league club on an ongoing basis.   The more talent you accumulate, the better chance you have that this occurs.  There are a bunch of players who will start to make that jump over the next two years.  We're not basing it on any one particular draft.  The timeline we are guessing at is completely arbitrary.  I am guessing based on my knowledge of the farm, major league club, current contracts, general baseball experience and other assumptions that we'll start to see a considerable impact at the major league level in 2021.  

Ohtani was included in the fangraphs rankings last year.  That's why I included him.  Do you think that I'm just making shit up to fuel my narrative?  

I don't have an agenda here.  What I want doesn't matter.  This is what they're doing.  I just happen to agree with it because it's worked for us in the past, and has worked time and time again for other teams, and is working now for all the top teams.  

 

Doc, unsurprisingly I'm fairly certain that you and I would run a baseball team in a similar way, emphasis on the bold-face part.

To be fair to floplag, though (even though I just made a joke at his expense), he may be suffering from Stoneman trauma. Stoneman was hoarding of his prospects to a fault, with the infamous Miggy trade that never happened as exemplary of his approach. In the mid-00s the Angels had possibly the best farm system in baseball, if you remember. According to Baseball America, in 2006 they has seven players in the top 100, and that was after Kotchman and McPherson graduated. Of their best prospects of that era, only Jered Weaver became a star. A bunch - Kendrick, Aybar, Santana, Morales - became quality regulars, but the rest were either roleplayers or duds. 

That sort of rate on return probably isn't so unusual, maybe a bit below the norm. This is why I have to constantly check myself when I dream of Adell, Marsh, Canning, Jones, Rengifo, Adams, Maitan, Soriano, Hernandez et al becoming stars. Maybe only one or two will, a few will become quality regulars, a bunch role players, and a bunch duds.

 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Doc, unsurprisingly I'm fairly certain that you and I would run a baseball team in a similar way, emphasis on the bold-face part.

To be fair to floplag, though (even though I just made a joke at his expense), he may be suffering from Stoneman trauma. Stoneman was hoarding of his prospects to a fault, with the infamous Miggy trade that never happened as exemplary of his approach. In the mid-00s the Angels had possibly the best farm system in baseball, if you remember. According to Baseball America, in 2006 they has seven players in the top 100, and that was after Kotchman and McPherson graduated. Of their best prospects of that era, only Jered Weaver became a star. A bunch - Kendrick, Aybar, Santana, Morales - became quality regulars, but the rest were either roleplayers or duds. 

That sort of rate on return probably isn't so unusual, maybe a bit below the norm. This is why I have to constantly check myself when I dream of Adell, Marsh, Canning, Jones, Rengifo, Adams, Maitan, Soriano, Hernandez et al becoming stars. Maybe only one or two will, a few will become quality regulars, a bunch role players, and a bunch duds.

 

look what we were able to do with that though.  There's nothing wrong with guys who become solid regulars as long as they're cheap.  Then you can go get guys to fill in around them.  We've already got a bunch of them so we're kinda doing it in reverse.  Give me cheap avg players at 3b, 2b, 1b, three starters, and a pen.  Give me one, maybe two stars out of that mix.  Maybe 1 pitcher and Adell in RF.  Fill that around Trout, Ohtani, Simmons and Upton.  Grab a decent FA catcher, elite pen arm, and maybe another starter and you've got a pretty damn good team.  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Cole, Verlander, McHugh and Correa can all become FAs after this upcoming season, too. 

 

How can Correa become a free agent when 2019 is his first year of arbitration?

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

and that's why you need to continue to let it build and not burn it.  If it moved from 30 to 12 in 2.5 years, wouldn't it make sense that it will continue to get better if you don't mess with it?  

we graduated Fletcher, Ward, Barria and Ohtani this year and it actually got better.  

Baseball America had them at number 10 in their post season rankings.   They had them 30th at the end of 2017.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

The idea of extending them doenst occur to you?  The point is to use those 2 years to keep costs down till Albert leaves.  Ive said this many times.  That doenst mean you cant keep them, only that they cost more after that.   If i can get a proven ML star for a couple 50s, i do that, apologetically. 

they can't extend everyone.  that's part of the point of why you keep your prospects so they can become cost controlled talent.  

[Second Base]

The Angels still have a ton of upside that hasn't materialized yet. No guarantee that it will at all, but Maitan, Adams, Jackson, Deveaux, Uceta, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, Stiward Aquino....

We celebrate how far Adell, Marsh, Jones, Suarez, Thaiss, Rengifo and Canning have come, but there's still so much more potential in this system than I don't think anyone outside of diehard Angel prospect fans even know about. 

You give them one more draft, one more international class and a few of the top guys I listed breaking out, and yeah, we probably have an elite system (if they don't trade it away).

And the more I study other teams farm systems, the more I realize how unique that is for the Angels. The systems ranked higher than them, absolutely do NOT have a collection of high end talent primed to break out like the Angels do. I feel I they have more "realized talent", but they don't have that upside. It could all result in nothing or it could result in everything. 

We're in a good spot. 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Second Base

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

look what we were able to do with that though.  There's nothing wrong with guys who become solid regulars as long as they're cheap.  Then you can go get guys to fill in around them.  We've already got a bunch of them so we're kinda doing it in reverse.  Give me cheap avg players at 3b, 2b, 1b, three starters, and a pen.  Give me one, maybe two stars out of that mix.  Maybe 1 pitcher and Adell in RF.  Fill that around Trout, Ohtani, Simmons and Upton.  Grab a decent FA catcher, elite pen arm, and maybe another starter and you've got a pretty damn good team.  

Yes, I agree with you. But the point is that it isn't either/or. This whole debate is set up with two choices, and there are really gradients in between.

What I like about Eppler is that he seems to combine the best of both worlds: he builds from within but is willing to make the bold trade on occasion (e.g. Simmons). I personally am biased towards hoarding prospects and probably wouldn't have made that trade at the time, but recognize in hindsight that it was a good trade to make and, at worst, will even out over time. 

This is why I think we'll see some of the prospects at positions of wealth (SS/2B, OF) traded. As much as I'd like to see that Adell-Trout-Marsh outfield, I have feeling we never will. We'll see Upton-Trout-Adell, and them someday something like Trout-one of Adams/Knowles/Deveaux-Adell, with the other two traded. Similarly with Rengifo/Jones. But as we talked about, the time is not yet to trade any of these guys with the possible exceptions of players like Ward, Hermosillo, and Suarez.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Angels still have a ton of upside that hasn't materialized yet. No guarantee that it will at all, but Maitan, Adams, Jackson, Deveaux, Uceta, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, Stiward Aquino....

We celebrate how far Adell, Marsh, Jones, Suarez, Thaiss, Rengifo and Canning have come, but there's still so much more potential in this system than I think anyone outside of diehard Angel prospect fans even know about. 

You give them one more draft, one more international class and a few of the top guys I listed breaking out, and yeah, we have an elite system. 

And the more I study other teams farm systems, the more I realize how unique that is for the Angels. The systems ranked higher than them, absolutely do NOT have a collection of high end talent primed to break out like the Angels do. It could all result in nothing or it could result in everything. 

Yep. Best-case scenario and the Angels are the Braves or Padres in a year or two.

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Angels still have a ton of upside that hasn't materialized yet. No guarantee that it will at all, but Maitan, Adams, Jackson, Deveaux, Uceta, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, Stiward Aquino....

We celebrate how far Adell, Marsh, Jones, Suarez, Thaiss, Rengifo and Canning have come, but there's still so much more potential in this system than I don't think anyone outside of diehard Angel prospect fans even know about. 

You give them one more draft, one more international class and a few of the top guys I listed breaking out, and yeah, we probably have an elite system (if they don't trade it away).

And the more I study other teams farm systems, the more I realize how unique that is for the Angels. The systems ranked higher than them, absolutely do NOT have a collection of high end talent primed to break out like the Angels do. I feel I they have more "realized talent", but they don't have that upside. It could all result in nothing or it could result in everything. 

We're in a good spot. 

and I think that's what Eppler is going for.  Even if a bunch of guys burn out, the ones that don't have a ton of upside instead of having the ceiling of an avg major leaguer.  

[GrittyVeterans]

43 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yep. Best-case scenario and the Angels are the Braves or Padres in a year or two.

This is a joke. I don't agree with Floplag but when I see things like this I just cringe. Best case scenario is we are the Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs/Yankees. The Braves I get. Good young team now with a great farm

Not the Facking Padres. They lost 100 games this season. Sure they will improve but people act like they have 8 surefire stars in the system

[Angelsjunky]

37 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

This is a joke. I don't agree with Floplag but when I see things like this I just cringe. Best case scenario is we are the Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs/Yankees. The Braves I get. Good young team now with a great farm

Not the Facking Padres. They lost 100 games this season. Sure they will improve but people act like they have 8 surefire stars in the system

Come on, it isn't hard to get that I'm talking about the farm system - and the Padres are stacked.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

Nor has the farm reached the point of making trades for players where you only control them for two years.  

Or less.

[Lou]

3 hours ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

How can Correa become a free agent when 2019 is his first year of arbitration?

simple. I'm an idiot and read it wrong. 

[Lou]

Just now, Lou said:

simple. I'm an idiot and read it wrong. 

I agree 

[Lou]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

how do the pitching prospects in Houston's organization rate out? 

anyone?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

simple. I'm an idiot and read it wrong. 

Yes, yes you are.  In all seriousness I didn't see anything that said he was and was wondering if I was missing something.  Kind of seems like the guy has been around long enough or maybe that's just because he's been hyped up for so long.  One of the articles said since they extended Altuve and have guys like Bregman and others to think about Correa could be the odd one out especially when his agent has said his intention is to play out his club control then sign a big deal, i.e. he won't sign a deal that buys out any arbitration and FA years. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

anyone?

really really good.  

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

really really good.  

do you ever have good news for us? 

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Lou said:

anyone?

I think like 5 of their top 10 are pitchers -- the biggest one being Whitley.