Post 2018 Farm ratings per Fangraphs

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think like 5 of their top 10 are pitchers -- the biggest one being Whitley.

that goes double for you, pal 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

do you ever have good news for us? 

yes.  we're going to start being good again in 2021.  

[Chris]

how about those M's, Red Sox, and O's?

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Chris said:

how about those M's, Red Sox, and O's?

Baltimore already traded away their best major league players and their farm still sucks.   They're gonna be bad for a long long time.  

It's gonna be interesting to see what Boston does over the next two years.  They'll obviously extend Betts and probably Bogarts, but Sale, Porcello, Bradley jr and JDM are in walk years as is Bogarts if he doesn't extend.  David price isn't going to pitch well much longer and he's owed 32m per for 4 more years.  They've got no farm to pull from and are going to need to pay out big bucks if they want to keep Kelly, Eovaldi, and Kimbrel.  They're terrible at catcher and Whle devers has some potential to get better, he's a terrible defender and doesn't get on base.  Eduardo Rodriguez is a nice rotation piece and they still have Benintendi of course.  

It actually wouldn't surprise me if both Bogaerts and Betts waited things out to become free agents.  Bogaerts is a Boras client.  But starting in 2021, I see them being in real trouble unless they decide to keep payroll at $250 mil for awhile.  If they do, it also means they're gonna forfeit a bunch of picks should they sign free agents with qualifying offers attached.  

Jerry Diracist is gonna turn over a bunch of his major league club (assuming he doesn't get fired) and my guess is it will be for other major league players and not prospects.  Or if they are prospects, they will be major league ready with a little less upside than he could get if he moved guys for those at lower levels.  I would wager that in his 'rebuilding' process, as many prospects end up going out as coming in.  

[floplag]

42 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

yes.  we're going to start being good again in 2021.  

"Start" being good?    

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, GrittyVeterans said:

This is a joke. I don't agree with Floplag but when I see things like this I just cringe. Best case scenario is we are the Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs/Yankees. The Braves I get. Good young team now with a great farm

Not the Facking Padres. They lost 100 games this season. Sure they will improve but people act like they have 8 surefire stars in the system

The Padres will be one of the best teams in baseball come 2029/2021, much like the Angels I feel. They have a core to build around, they have the leadership, and they have the best collection of pitching talent I've ever seen on the farm, and the vast majority of them are at A+ or higher. 

They have 15 pitching prospects that project into the middle of a rotation without wishing on a star. Fifteen. I mean things could go terribly awry for that organization and they'll still have a staff entirely comprised of #3 starters in a couple years. Chances are, you're going to see the Padres have 3-4 aces and 1-2 #3's and dominate. The rest of the arms that don't flame out, will be traded for offensive talent. 

And not that Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Hunter Renfroe are that's good, but Fernando Tatis Jr. at SS, Francisco Mejia at catcher, Luis Urias at 2B, Franmil Reyes in LF/RF, they are that good. 

The Padres are looking good enough in two years that I think the D-Backs and a Giants are recognizing it'll be an uphill climb, and the Rockies won't be spending anything in FA until they know if Arenado stays. It'll be the Padres vs Dodgers.

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Padres will be one of the best teams in baseball come 2029/2021, much like the Angels I feel. They have a core to build around, they have the leadership, and they have the best collection of pitching talent I've ever seen on the farm, and the vast majority of them are at A+ or higher. 

They have 15 pitching prospects that project into the middle of a rotation without wishing on a star. Fifteen. I mean things could go terribly awry for that organization and they'll still have a staff entirely comprised of #3 starters in a couple years. Chances are, you're going to see the Padres have 3-4 aces and 1-2 #3's and dominate. The rest of the arms that don't flame out, will be traded for offensive talent. 

And not that Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Hunter Renfroe are that's good, but Fernando Tatis Jr. at SS, Francisco Mejia at catcher, Luis Urias at 2B, Franmil Reyes in LF/RF, they are that good. 

The Padres are looking good enough in two years that I think the D-Backs and a Giants are recognizing it'll be an uphill climb, and the Rockies won't be spending anything in FA until they know if Arenado stays. It'll be the Padres vs Dodgers.

The Padres farm is significantly better than ours, there is little question to that.  Comparing the 2 is a bit silly.    They will be good, we will be, average. 

Call me debbie downer if you want, that doesnt make it less true.    The 2 things are not equal, especially if we dont retain Trout/Simmons.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

The Padres farm is significantly better than ours, there is little question to that.  Comparing the 2 is a bit silly.    They will be good, we will be, average. 

our major league roster is better and we have the best player on earth.  

So now you're new narrative is that if people don't agree with doing it your way then you're going to focus on how we can't be good in the future?  

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

our major league roster is better and we have the best player on earth.  

So now you're new narrative is that if people don't agree with doing it your way then you're going to focus on how we can't be good in the future?  

No, im of the narrative that there is zero guarantee as of this moment that we will have the best player on earth when you are ready to finally make an effort.  Even if we do he will be three+ years older.  
That and the fact that comparing our farm to SD in its current state is comparing a rolls royce to a ford.
First it was well compete in 21, now well start to be good in 21, let me know when you give a shit about the ML team over the farm ratings

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

No, im of the narrative that there is zero guarantee as of this moment that we will have the best player on earth when you are ready to finally make an effort.  
That and the fact that comparing our farm to SD in its current state is comparing a rolls royce to a ford.
First it was well compete in 21, now well start to be good in 21, let me know when you give a shit about the ML team over the farm ratings

lol.  you're losing it.  nothing I think or write has anything to do with what is actually going to happen.  I'm offering perspective of how I think things are going to go.  You act as if either you or I are deciding this.  I'm acting on a ton of assumptions.  So are you.  That's mostly what we have until Billy and the team do whatever they are going to.  

I give a shit about the major league team and its future but the farm plays a big part of that for me.  You're the one that keeps bringing up the ratings.  I couldn't care less about them.  I want good young, controllable talent on the team so we can use our money and prospect currency more efficiently.  

you still don't get it.  

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

lol.  you're losing it.  nothing I think or write has anything to do with what is actually going to happen.  I'm offering perspective of how I think things are going to go.  You act as if either you or I are deciding this.  I'm acting on a ton of assumptions.  So are you.  That's mostly what we have until Billy and the team do whatever they are going to.  

I give a shit about the major league team and its future but the farm plays a big part of that for me.  You're the one that keeps bringing up the ratings.  I couldn't care less about them.  I want good young, controllable talent on the team so we can use our money and prospect currency more efficiently.  

you still don't get it.  

For us to contend in a few years, as you suggest, based on the farm, since were not signing anyone not of the cost controlled variety and certainly not trading anyone.  Does that not imply that the farm have sufficient quality to actually compete at the ML level?    How are the ranking of said farm, done by the experts, that suggest we dont have what you think we have in terms of quality down there, not relevant to that position?
Youre basing everything on assumptions, and i your right, i dont get that. 

[GrittyVeterans]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

The Padres will be one of the best teams in baseball come 2029/2021, much like the Angels I feel. They have a core to build around, they have the leadership, and they have the best collection of pitching talent I've ever seen on the farm, and the vast majority of them are at A+ or higher. 

They have 15 pitching prospects that project into the middle of a rotation without wishing on a star. Fifteen. I mean things could go terribly awry for that organization and they'll still have a staff entirely comprised of #3 starters in a couple years. Chances are, you're going to see the Padres have 3-4 aces and 1-2 #3's and dominate. The rest of the arms that don't flame out, will be traded for offensive talent. 

And not that Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, and Hunter Renfroe are that's good, but Fernando Tatis Jr. at SS, Francisco Mejia at catcher, Luis Urias at 2B, Franmil Reyes in LF/RF, they are that good. 

The Padres are looking good enough in two years that I think the D-Backs and a Giants are recognizing it'll be an uphill climb, and the Rockies won't be spending anything in FA until they know if Arenado stays. It'll be the Padres vs Dodgers.

Fair enough, but I see a lot of counting chickens before they hatch in this post. I don't know as much about it as you do but that major league team is AWFUL. I don't see them being a true contender by 2021 but maybe I am wrong

[GrittyVeterans]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Come on, it isn't hard to get that I'm talking about the farm system - and the Padres are stacked.

Um, when you post cryptic messages saying that best case scenario is that the ANGELS are like the Padres in 2 years, yes it is hard to tell you are talking about just the farm system. I misunderstood. 

 

[Stradling]

Watching flop lose it in this thread is adorable.   I like how he tells us nothing is guaranteed with prospects then tells us how much better the Padres farm will be than ours in two years.   

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Fair enough, but I see a lot of counting chickens before they hatch in this post. I don't know as much about it as you do but that major league team is AWFUL. I don't see them being a true contender by 2021 but maybe I am wrong

That's a fair assessment. I'll just say this regarding their farm and major league team. I think it would take a monumental collapse of talent among those prospects for the team not to win in a couple years. 

I think if the Braves, A's and Phillies showed us anything this year (and Twins last year), it's that rebuilds will often result in competitive teams a year or two earlier than expected. 

[Docwaukee]

36 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Watching flop lose it in this thread is adorable.   I like how he tells us nothing is guaranteed with prospects then tells us how much better the Padres farm will be than ours in two years.   

or that rankings by a third party are the determining factor of how we'll be in three years.  

 

[floplag]

12 hours ago, Stradling said:

Watching flop lose it in this thread is adorable.   I like how he tells us nothing is guaranteed with prospects then tells us how much better the Padres farm will be than ours in two years.   

Im not telling you that, the experts are.  

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

or that rankings by a third party are the determining factor of how we'll be in three years.  

 

Again, those who get paid to do such things.  Not me. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 11/12/2018 at 8:54 AM, Blarg said:

DH are never a 70 value, they are an incomplete player. Vlad is not an incomplete player but he is not a very good fielder. 

True, his dad wasn't the best fielder or even the most sound defensive outfielder either and was made better due to his cannon! And because of the arm teams wouldnt press the extra base. How does JR's arm grade out?..... Maybe, a future Ofer?

[Docwaukee]

Just to further sell the point of how prospect lists work.  To make the top 100 you are generally give a 55 grade or higher.  

Ron Acuna - Signed before the 2015 season.  Ranked 18th on the braves prospect list in 2016 and give a 45 grade by mlb.  Pre 2017 he jumped into the top 100 on a couple lists but not all of them.  

Juan Soto - end of 2016 he was ranked 12th in the nats system and given a 45 grade.  pre 2017 he cracked the top 100 on BP only.  and pre 2018 he was anywhere from 22 to 56 in the top 100 and given a 55 grade.  

Aaron Nola - cracked the top 100 in the 37-60 range after a year in the minors with a 55 grade.  

Blake Snell - was in the minors for 5 years from 2011 and finally cracked the top 100 in 2016.  Was ranked 20th in the rays system in 2014 with a 45 grade.  

Jose Altuve never made a top 100 list.

It took Arenado 3 years in the minors before he made it on.  

Stanton was never on one.  

The list goes on an on.  There are also a bunch of guy who were at the top of lists who have never made it.  

At the end of the day, it's all about volume of prospects, and patience.  

We don't know who Adell, Marsh, Jones, Adams, Maitan, Chris Rodriguez, Jackson, Soriano, Knowles, Aquino, Swanda, Yan, Aaron Hernandez and  whole slew of other guys are yet.  Could they end up superstars?  possibly.  Is it likely?  no.  but all of those guys have a very high ceiling.  

We know a little more about the guys who have reached AAA and their ceiling like Thaiss, Rengifo, Ward, Canning, Suarez and Fletcher.  But even still, nothing is set in stone.  

and we're gonna fill in more guys soon with another draft and some intl signings.  

If we let them realize their value, we are much better off even if a few drop.  

 

[Inside Pitch]

But what about the experts, Doc?????

[totdprods]

@Lou

Astros pitching...I posted this in the MILB thread a couple months back. 

Josh James (AA/AAA): 21 GS, 3.23 ERA, .191 BAA  in 114.1 IP with 171 (!) strikeouts
Trent Thornton (AAA): 21 GS, 4.14 ERA in 119.2 IP, with 29 walks to 117 strikeouts
Rogelio Armenteros (AAA): 20 GS, 3.65 ERA in 113.1 IP and 127 K
Brock Dykxhoorn (AA/AAA): 20 GS, 3.78 ERA in 116.2 IP, 100 hits, 36 walks, 110 strikeouts
Corbin Martin (A+/AA): 20 GS, 2.33 ERA in 116 IP, .193 BAA, 33 walks, 117 strikeouts
Cy Sneed (AAA): 19 GS, 3.91 ERA in 122 IP, 112 strikeouts
Ryan Hartman (AA): 17 GS, 2.75 ERA.239 BAA in 114.2 IP with 25 walks to 134 strikeouts
Brandon Bailey (A+/AA): 16 GS, 2.53 ERA in 117.1 IP with a .203 BAA and 133 strikeouts
Brandon Bielak (A+/AA): 15 GS, 2.09 ERA in 112 IP with 91 hits allowed, 37 BB, 128 K
Akeem Bostick (AA): 15 GS, 3.48 ERA in 93 IP with 35 BB, 97 K
Framber Valdez (AA/AAA): 14 GS, 4.11 ERA, 103 IP, 32 BB, 129 K
Hector Perez (A+/AA): 13 GS, 3.73 ERA, 89.1 IP, only 62 hits, 48 BB, 101 strikeouts

[Angel Oracle]

Adding to Doc's post, #1 overall picks don't always pan out either.   Matt Bush, Brien Taylor, and Danny Goodwin ring a bell? 

[Blarg]

On 11/12/2018 at 5:32 PM, floplag said:

That and the fact that comparing our farm to SD in its current state is comparing a rolls royce to a ford.

Rolls Royce doesn't make a 4x4 Raptor pickup so they suck. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Rolls Royce doesn't make a 4x4 Raptor pickup so they suck. 

At least they were smart enough to stay in their lane, see Porche making a station wagon for example, lol