Post 2018 Farm ratings per Fangraphs

[floplag]

Seems relevant to current conversations.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

We are 12th.  They break it down by the ratings of the prospects from 70 down to 40 on this list, 70 being highest (Vlad jr is the only one)
Our best sits at 60, Adell of course, the rest are all 50 or lower.  we have a total of 11 that made their list. 

Sidenote, i found Oak rating intriguing with all the hoarding they do, they sit 2 behind us with the same number of players rated. 

[Blarg]

Vlad Jr's defense does not rate out as a 70. Scouts are seeing him hit but ignoring he is not a good fielder. I watched him play 3rd base in the AFL in 3 games, he does not position, react or field that position at a high level. All scouting report are really a grain of salt type of thing. Some players are getting more criticism than others, some less. 

[Blarg]

That said, going from dead last to 12th in three drafts is an amazing accomplishment by Eppler and his staff. 

[eaterfan]

7 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Vlad Jr's defense does not rate out as a 70. Scouts are seeing him hit but ignoring he is not a good fielder. I watched him play 3rd base in the AFL in 3 games, he does not position, react or field that position at a high level. All scouting report are really a grain of salt type of thing. Some players are getting more criticism than others, some less. 

I don't think scouts think he needs to play defense to have 70 FV. Keith Law says he should DH. He thinks he'll have a David Ortiz like career. That's certainly 70 future value. 

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

Seems relevant to current conversations.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

We are 12th.  They break it down by the ratings of the prospects from 70 down to 40 on this list, 70 being highest (Vlad jr is the only one)
Our best sits at 60, Adell of course, the rest are all 50 or lower.  we have a total of 11 that made their list. 

Sidenote, i found Oak rating intriguing with all the hoarding they do, they sit 2 behind us with the same number of players rated. 

This is why Doc talks about waiting until they have maximized their value.   Guys like Marsh and the two drafted this year, all possibly have much more potential than the rating being given.   Case in point being where we’re Adell and Canning and Rengifo ranked/rated last year?  

[floplag]

12 minutes ago, Blarg said:

That said, going from dead last to 12th in three drafts is an amazing accomplishment by Eppler and his staff. 

It absolutely is, its come a long way. 

 

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This is why Doc talks about waiting until they have maximized their value.   Guys like Marsh and the two drafted this year, all possibly have much more potential than the rating being given.   Case in point being where we’re Adell and Canning and Rengifo ranked/rated last year?  

Again i get that, but i think you miss my point, or ignore it outright.

A group of 50s isnt going to suddenly make the ML club better than teams that have a group of 60s or even just more 50s.  Waiting for them to mature is absolutely zero guarantee of a winner in 21 or any other year.  Unless you assume they will all blossom into more than thier projections and the others guys fail to do the same which is of course not realistic. 

This is the entirely of why i dont buy the wait plan, our farm simply hasnt reached a point where thats a realistic assumption that the ML club will be anything more than it is now.

[Blarg]

16 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I don't think scouts think he needs to play defense to have 70 FV. Keith Law says he should DH. He thinks he'll have a David Ortiz like career. That's certainly 70 future value. 

DH are never a 70 value, they are an incomplete player. Vlad is not an incomplete player but he is not a very good fielder. 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

It absolutely is, its come a long way. 

 

Again i get that, but i think you miss my point, or ignore it outright.

A group of 50s isnt going to suddenly make the ML club better than teams that have a group of 60s or even just more 50s.  Waiting for them to mature is absolutely zero guarantee of a winner in 21 or any other year.  Unless you assume they will all blossom into more than thier projections and the others guys fail to do the same which is of course not realistic. 

This is the entirely of why i dont buy the wait plan, our farm simply hasnt reached a point where thats a realistic assumption that the ML club will be anything more than it is now.

Nor has the farm reached the point of making trades for players where you only control them for two years.  

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Nor has the farm reached the point of making trades for players where you only control them for two years.  

The idea of extending them doenst occur to you?  The point is to use those 2 years to keep costs down till Albert leaves.  Ive said this many times.  That doenst mean you cant keep them, only that they cost more after that.   If i can get a proven ML star for a couple 50s, i do that, apologetically. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

The idea of extending them doenst occur to you?  The point is to use those 2 years to keep costs down till Albert leaves.  Ive said this many times.  That doenst mean you cant keep them, only that they cost more after that.   If i can get a proven ML star for a couple 50s, i do that, apologetically. 

Of course it occurs to me.  It takes two.   

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

DH are never a 70 value, they are an incomplete player. Vlad is not an incomplete player but he is not a very good fielder. 

You don't think Ortiz had the career of a 70 value future?

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

That said, going from dead last to 12th in three drafts is an amazing accomplishment by Eppler and his staff. 

There isn't anyone alive who would have predicted it given the limitations in place.  It's been all about scouting, and the high risk, high reward approach they have taken to the draft.  They took some chances and it's paid off.  A lot of people wanted them to go after safer college pitching last year but right now the 2018 draft looks like a huge win.   If Jackson and Adams take half the step forward that Adell did this year the system may vault to into the top 5.    

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Vlad Jr's defense does not rate out as a 70. Scouts are seeing him hit but ignoring he is not a good fielder. I watched him play 3rd base in the AFL in 3 games, he does not position, react or field that position at a high level. All scouting report are really a grain of salt type of thing. Some players are getting more criticism than others, some less. 

I think most people see his defense as being his biggest weakness, but he's got a legit 80 bat with the batting eye to go along with it.   I think he ends up at 1B, but they will ride it out at 3B as long as they can because he's got a legit cannon for an arm.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

It absolutely is, its come a long way. 

 

Again i get that, but i think you miss my point, or ignore it outright.

A group of 50s isnt going to suddenly make the ML club better than teams that have a group of 60s or even just more 50s.  Waiting for them to mature is absolutely zero guarantee of a winner in 21 or any other year.  Unless you assume they will all blossom into more than thier projections and the others guys fail to do the same which is of course not realistic. 

This is the entirely of why i dont buy the wait plan, our farm simply hasnt reached a point where thats a realistic assumption that the ML club will be anything more than it is now.

it absolutely could.  My point is that in a year, we are going to have another draft and another year of development.  Some guys will drop, but if Eppler does/did his job right, you'll see some of those 40/45 guys progress to 50/55 and the draft/intl signings will fill in the spots that they took.  It's exactly how we've gone from dead last to 12th in 3 years.  It's exactly how ATL and SDP are where they are.  You just keep building and don't trade guys away before they have a chance to go from 40 to 50.  Adell was a 50 last year.  Canning was a 45.  In 2017, we had one 50 (jones), and two 45's (marsh and thaiss) and 11 40's.  

Don't worry about whether other teams have 60 grade prospects that are better than ours.  We need to cultivate what we have and let is help us build for the future. 

oh and BTW, Barria was a 45. Fletcher was a 40.  There is plenty of major league help in the 40-45 range.  

Nothing is ever guaranteed.  But so far the process is working.  They're not going to poke a bunch of holes in it to add a good player to a .500 team for two years.  

The fact that it doesn't make you happy is irrelevant to what is actually going to happen.  

They're going to try to let the players from the farm develop and then come up and provide cheap talent to make the major league team good again.  If you don't believe in that, you're gonna have a tough time being an Angel fan for a while.  

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it absolutely could.  My point is that in a year, we are going to have another draft and another year of development.  Some guys will drop, but if Eppler does/did his job right, you'll see some of those 40/45 guys progress to 50/55 and the draft/intl signings will fill in the spots that they took.  It's exactly how we've gone from dead last to 12th in 3 years.  It's exactly how ATL and SDP are where they are.  You just keep building and don't trade guys away before they have a chance to go from 40 to 50.  Adell was a 50 last year.  Canning was a 45.  In 2017, we had one 50 (jones), and two 45's (marsh and thaiss) and 11 40's.  

Don't worry about whether other teams have 60 grade prospects that are better than ours.  We need to cultivate what we have and let is help us build for the future. 

oh and BTW, Barria was a 45. Fletcher was a 40.  There is plenty of major league help in the 40-45 range.  

Nothing is ever guaranteed.  But so far the process is working.  They're not going to poke a bunch of holes in it to add a good player to a .500 team for two years.  

The fact that it doesn't make you happy is irrelevant to what is actually going to happen.  

They're going to try to let the players from the farm develop and then come up and provide cheap talent to make the major league team good again.  If you don't believe in that, you're gonna have a tough time being an Angel fan for a while.  

So all this hope is based on the premise that our guys will be better than projections, and everyone else will be worse?   Whats more likely, that a 60 end ups better than a 50 or the other way around?  Sure, it COULD happen, but is it likely to?  Especially over a group of them?  Again i get the plan, but if this is all based on the assumption that somehow our farm is going to outperform other farms with higher ratings, that seems a giant reach.   

Hou for example, better than us now, has a better rated farm, near twice as many rated prospects, dont you think its huge wishful thinking to assume we will be competitive in 21 based on that with this group without other influx thru FA or trades?  Anyone you draft in the next few years wont be ML ready by then so... they are just the sustain train. plus still picking mid pack.  

Whether im happy or not isnt the question at all, its this perception that somehow we become contenders in a few years based on the farm, i simply dont see how thats  a realistic position based on the evidence at hand today. 

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

So all this hope is based on the premise that our guys will be better than projections, and everyone else will be worse? 

who said this?

[floplag]

Just now, Lou said:

who said this?

well, logically, if they are projected higher now, and were to surpass them, isnt that requisite?

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Hou for example, better than us now, has a better rated farm, near twice as many rated prospects, dont you think its huge wishful thinking to assume we will be competitive in 21 based on that with this group without other influx thru FA or trades? 

you have to also take into consideration the players they may be losing over the next year or two. next year alone they can be without 3 starters from their 2018 rotation. (plus Gonzales)

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

well, logically, if they are projected higher now, and were to surpass them, isnt that requisite?

i thought you were referring to our ML team surpassing other teams. that's what i care about 

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

you have to also take into consideration the players they may be losing over the next year or two. next year alone they can be without 3 starters from their 2018 rotation. (plus Gonzales)

Of course, which is why i looked up the farm, they will lose some as they get more expensive and they have a solid pool rated better than we do coming up to replace them.

 

1 minute ago, Lou said:

i thought you were referring to our ML team surpassing other teams. that's what i care about 

i agree, though most here seem far more worried about winning the farm ratings than wins at the ML level.

[Lou]

Cole, Verlander, McHugh and Correa can all become FAs after this upcoming season, too. 

 

[Lou]

how do the pitching prospects in Houston's organization rate out? 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

So all this hope is based on the premise that our guys will be better than projections, and everyone else will be worse?   Whats more likely, that a 60 end ups better than a 50 or the other way around?  Sure, it COULD happen, but is it likely to?  Especially over a group of them?  Again i get the plan, but if this is all based on the assumption that somehow our farm is going to outperform other farms with higher ratings, that seems a giant reach.   

Hou for example, better than us now, has a better rated farm, near twice as many rated prospects, dont you think its huge wishful thinking to assume we will be competitive in 21 based on that with this group without other influx thru FA or trades?  Anyone you draft in the next few years wont be ML ready by then so... they are just the sustain train. plus still picking mid pack.  

Whether im happy or not isnt the question at all, its this perception that somehow we become contenders in a few years based on the farm, i simply dont see how thats  a realistic position based on the evidence at hand today. 

and that's why people are telling you that you don't get it.  If you don't understand the concept of building a farm system and how that translates into a better major league team in the future, then it's just pissing in the wind trying to explain it to you.  

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and that's why people are telling you that you don't get it.  If you don't understand the concept of building a farm system and how that translates into a better major league team in the future, then it's just pissing in the wind trying to explain it to you.  

Never said that once, only that basing that assumption on a mid tier farm isnt an accurate statement. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, floplag said:

Never said that once, only that basing that assumption on a mid tier farm isnt an accurate statement. 

and that's why you need to continue to let it build and not burn it.  If it moved from 30 to 12 in 2.5 years, wouldn't it make sense that it will continue to get better if you don't mess with it?  

we graduated Fletcher, Ward, Barria and Ohtani this year and it actually got better.