Hosmer to Padres- 8 years

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

18 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Your idea is on the right track, but there are a few flaws. First, you have to convince Trout to take a 10/280 deal.

I picked Trout only as a hypothetical example.

 

22 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

It doesn't mention CBT

AAV is used as the number subject to the tax threshold. CBT is assumed as with all AAV salaries.

[arch stanton]

I'm going to step away and let you paint yourself into this corner without my help

[Stradling]

According to Cots it’s an $18 million hit to the threshold.  Granted I don’t know if that means Ace is right or Arch is right, but I think it’s Ace.  Arch is basically never wrong so I’m assuming there’s a different way to do this math that Cots isn’t picking up. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I'm going to step away and let you paint yourself into this corner without my help

I'm not saying you're wrong but if not then Scott Miller is. I wasn't sure which is why I asked the question in the first place.

[Second Base]

Padres and Rockies farms are the only other ones I pay attention to other than our own. While most folks think their jewel Tatis Jr., and while he does have the upside, the real jewel of the Padres system is their rotation in AA. 

You're looking at a team that will have 5 starters with front of the rotation upside all hitting the major leagues the end of this year or 2019. 

Once 2020 rolls around, the Padres will be a force to be reckoned with.

 

[Troll Daddy]

It’s refreshing to see a small market team spend some money even if it’s not going to put them in contention any time soon. 

[floplag]

Interesting deal.  Total AAV is a little higher than i expected, obviously front loaded  though i suspect he may not be opting out at age 31-32, but well see.
I know nothing about the Padre system other than its well regarded, was 1B a hole for them?
I guess im trying to figure why they had a bidding war with themselves for this one player.   It isnt like he helps them in the immediate future. 

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Hosmer's contract is for $20M/yr for 5 years and then $13M/yr for the last 3 years. That's an AAV of $18M/yr. My question is. Is this way to lower the AAV from $20M/yr to $18M/yr. If Hosmer opts out after 5 yrs, the Padres already had the benefit of the lower AAV, so how is that to be handled.

What's to prevent a contract like that for say Trout. Give Trout 6 yrs at $40m/yr and then 4 years at $10M/yr with an opt out after 6 yrs. Knowing full well he will opt out. So instead of $40M AAV for 6yrs, it is 10yrs at $28M AAV, even though opts out of the last 4 years, the damage had already been done.

Great question!  Hosmer's contract contains an opt-out clause, which isn't the same as an option year.  So the entire contract + signing bonus / 8 years = luxury tax AAV, or 18mil/year as you stated.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Great question!  Hosmer's contract contains an opt-out clause, which isn't the same as an option year.  So the entire contract + signing bonus / 8 years = luxury tax AAV, or 18mil/year as you stated.

There you go!  I like learning new things like this.  So opt outs will continue to be a thing for any of the younger free agents.  

[Warfarin]

28 minutes ago, floplag said:

Interesting deal.  Total AAV is a little higher than i expected, obviously front loaded  though i suspect he may not be opting out at age 31-32, but well see.
I know nothing about the Padre system other than its well regarded, was 1B a hole for them?
I guess im trying to figure why they had a bidding war with themselves for this one player.   It isnt like he helps them in the immediate future. 

It's a pretty smart deal by the Padres.  It's front-loaded as you said, so that by the time he reaches his fifth year, he'll just have to ask himself, "can I do better on the free market than 3/39?," vs if it were back-loaded, then he'd ask himself (for example), "can I do better on the free market than 3/60?"  This increases the likelihood that he opts out, and makes it only a 5 year commitment vs an 8 year one.  

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

Padres and Rockies farms are the only other ones I pay attention to other than our own. While most folks think their jewel Tatis Jr., and while he does have the upside, the real jewel of the Padres system is their rotation in AA. 

You're looking at a team that will have 5 starters with front of the rotation upside all hitting the major leagues the end of this year or 2019. 

Once 2020 rolls around, the Padres will be a force to be reckoned with.

 

I totally agree.  The Padres are a true, legitimate threat in the long-term, and they have built up an amazing amount of talent.  It's why I thought Ohtani might go to them - they are very, very well-positioned for the future, and will be the Dodgers' main competition starting in the year 2020, IMO.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

It's a pretty smart deal by the Padres.  It's front-loaded as you said, so that by the time he reaches his fifth year, he'll just have to ask himself, "can I do better on the free market than 3/39?," vs if it were back-loaded, then he'd ask himself (for example), "can I do better on the free market than 3/60?"  This increases the likelihood that he opts out, and makes it only a 5 year commitment vs an 8 year one.  

No i get that part, what i dont get is why they had a bidding war with themselves.  Was this such a void in their system?    what about Myers, a move to the OF?
Certainly also makes Headley's value drop to the basement.  As far as i know arent they pretty high on Villaneuva?
I guess im just not sure why they felt this was something they had to over pay to get. 

[Stradling]

28 minutes ago, floplag said:

No i get that part, what i dont get is why they had a bidding war with themselves.  Was this such a void in their system?    what about Myers, a move to the OF?
Certainly also makes Headley's value drop to the basement.  As far as i know arent they pretty high on Villaneuva?
I guess im just not sure why they felt this was something they had to over pay to get. 

Because they were bidding against the Royals and Red Sox.  

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, floplag said:

No i get that part, what i dont get is why they had a bidding war with themselves.  Was this such a void in their system?    what about Myers, a move to the OF?
Certainly also makes Headley's value drop to the basement.  As far as i know arent they pretty high on Villaneuva?
I guess im just not sure why they felt this was something they had to over pay to get. 

it was said that the Royals had a 7yr deal on the table as well.  

Not sure they totally overpaid here.  Seems like a reasonably fair deal. 

They get a guy starting from age 28 who will be a fixture of leadership for the next 5 and possibly 8 years.  He's won a WS recently so he brings that culture to a very young, up and coming ball club.  Kind of reminds me of the Cubs getting Lester.  

Normally, spending big money on a 1bman doesn't work out well, but I like this move for them.  It says 'game on' to the fans as well.  Gives the team some interest.  

Their starting pitching is an absolute train wreck still though.  Actually, Lance Lynn on a 4yr deal might be another nice piece for them to add.  Most of their top pitchers in the system are still in the low minors so it will be interesting to see which direction they go in that regard.  

They were outscored by 212 runs last year so they needed to do something interesting.  

[UndertheHalo]

Just sort of strange for the Padres to do this right now.  Even optimistically, they’re a couple of years away most likely.  Why waste the money and contract years when you aren’t ready to go yet ? Hosmer is a good player but there will be other, equally good players available. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[eligrba4ever]

I have a strong suspicion the Padres' rebuild will leave the taste of ashes in their mouths. Just like the past four, six or 10 Padres rebuilds.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I was under the impression that 'opt outs' were treated like separate contracts for the purpose of the CBT.

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I was under the impression that 'opt outs' were treated like separate contracts for the purpose of the CBT.

No, they are not.  Option years are, but not opt-outs.  

[ukyah]

15 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

Why sign a 28-year old to a massive contract when you're in the beginning stages of a rebuild? This is one of the dumbest signings in recent history and I'll bet the Padres will try to unload him before the beginning of next season. Reminds me of when the Marlins signed Jose Reyes in 2012.

they're not in the beginning stages of a rebuild, they have most of the necessary parts. they just need it to come together.

[Taylor]

17 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

I like this deal. 

16 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Great deal for the Padres  ... makes complete sense for a young team. 

Lol

[Stradling]

Just now, Taylor said:

Lol

Yep. 

[Troll Daddy]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

Lol

Did your mom give you permission to go online again 

 

lol

[Ohtaniland]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yep. 

You don’t like the deal?

[Stradling]

Claude you go out of your way to shit on the Angels and applaud other teams.  Today you went back to the Goodwill nonsense.  You pump up the Yankees every chance you get and ignore they signed this guy just last year.  You pretend that the Angels spend as much as the Dodgers and the Yankees, then when proven wrong you change directions.  It’s pathetic.  So do I think it’s a good deal, sure, if he continues doing what he did this year it’s a steal.  If he reverts back to previous years where he had the same WAR as Cron, then no it’s an awful deal.  The point is, you like the deal because someone else made it.  

[m0nkey]

So is boras a good agent again?