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BA 2018 Angels Top 10 Prospects


John Smith

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1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I do really like Herm. My strategy with ranking is answering the question: In what order do I value these prospects? In what order would I keep them? For me Rivas gets a slight edge over Herm, but it is close.

i think since Herm played well last season and ended in AAA he gets the nod. Plus he plays at a premium position in CF. 

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12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's both because the Angels have much better prospects now, but also because both Thaiss and Ward have fallen a bit. 

have they though?  They've actually done similarly to what many predicted actually.  Ward especially.  Maybe Thaiss has been a little disappointing.  Especially when Forest Whitley was picked just after him.  But the Thaiss pick let us get Marsh and Williams who could both bust out or just bust.  Marsh is gonna end up an All-star some day.  Thaiss is gonna be James Loney and was probably always going to be.  

Another good season by all these guys and I think they have to start thinking about trying them at some different positions.  I know what I would do with Marsh (coughmostathleticgreatarm3bcough).  I'm still working Thaiss out at C if I'm the halos.  The bat doesn't warrant 1b exclusivity.   Why not Jones at 2b?  I guess it boils down to whether teams think keeping a guy in his comfort zone defensively makes him more valuable or if they convert him and make him more potentially useful to the mlb team as opposed to 'in trade'.  

As far as Ward is concerned, there are always some prospects that get certain situations or ideals attached to them.  Howie Kendrick was the next perennial batting champ.  Mathis was Joe Mauer etc.  Ward got the draft day public circle jerk.  While that follows him, should we really be disappointed?  What if he ends up being Martin Maldonado that gets on base at a .350 clip with 10-12 hrs and a .240-.250 avg?  Because he's one good year away from profiling as such.  He a mediocre year away from being Maldo defensively with no power and a solid obp.  

How many other first rounders from 2015 picked after him are beating down the door?  We got Jam Jones that year as well.  in about 3 years, lets look at the combo of picks from round 1 and 2 in the 25th slot or more respectively.  Take a look at some of the catcher in mlb.  Max of 4 WAR.  Some likely undervalued by that metric due to sequencing/handling.  But still, look at some of those in the 2 WAR range.  That keeps you in the top 15.  Does Ward profile well out of that?  I don't think so.  Based on current metrics, he likely profiles as a middle of the pack mlb starter who is undervalued because of their defense.  

Perspective is important.  Who cares where Ward was picked.  I'll take an above avg defensive catcher who handles the staff well and gets on base at a .340 clip with some upside on that even.  

Leon Rivas is basically Cesar Hernandez in 2 years.  We've actually, as an entire website, converted our prospect philosophy to something closer to that of the pundits.  More upside odds handicapping and 1st round heavy.  That's not a rip.  I'm in that bucket as well but  Leo is gonna be a major leaguer.  .420 obp through A ball at age 19.  He'd have easily been in our top 10 a couple years ago even with our current crop.  Having prospects to dream on changes your view.  It's why Chris Rodriguez is now in our top 10.  He's one of my favorites btw, but if I had to pick who has a better chance of being a solid major leaguer, I am picking Leo over him.  

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It's funny, I just write Rivas' scouting report last night. Before I do these write ups, I refer back to my notes that I took before on these guys as a refresher and watch as much video as I can digest. 

I really disagree that he's our best defensive infielder. His arm is pretty mediocre. And as far as his offense is concerned....If his floor is Alexi Amarista, and his ceiling is Cesar Hernandez, then his likely outcome is Maicer Izturis.

I'd also be very hesitant to move some of our OF depth to difficult positions. I can understand moving Marsh to 1B as we did with Erstad for a time, but I'd avoid putting Jahmai back in the infield. He's starting to come into his own and I wouldn't want to disrupt that. 

 

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our draft picks in the last decade have been absolutely horrific.  More then anything scouting/development is where Eppler has succeed spectacularly for the Angels.  So far so good I guess.  Honestly in the 3 years or whatever its been, we seem somehow ahead of schedule.  Think about how awful our outlook seemed then.  Truly awful.  When I talk about the Angels with people I always like to say that we were on the edge of a baseball abyss.  I think that really we were.  Its nice that feeling is gone. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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17 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's both because the Angels have much better prospects now, but also because both Thaiss and Ward have fallen a bit. 

Oddly enough, the pre-draft scouting reports and projections have been considerably more accurate than minor league scouting, at least what is considered common knowledge.

With Ward, the knock was he was too inconsistent at the plate, but would be a backup catcher. Sure, there's more power and OBP than originally thought, but the result is similar.

And Thaiss, the belief was he's an advanced hitter with questionable pop. That's inevitably what he is I think.

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