Angels explored RF upgrade.

[Second Base]

I spoke with a connection of mine in the NL, he said it's known the Angels discussed dealing Calhoun recently. Another that works for an AL organization said he thinks it's 50/50 Calhoun stays.

[Second Base]

I should preface this by saying I'm not sure the thought here. Calhoun seems like an Eppler-type. Plus he's left handed.

This would tell me there's more complex rating and team building system at play than I'd expect.

[tdawg87]

I mean, Stanton is an upgrade. Just saying.

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I mean, Stanton is an upgrade. Just saying.

Odd as it sounds, that's somewhat logical. Why get rid of your perfectly capable, inexpensive RF unless you intend to have something much better.

[Dave Saltzer]

Calhoun is a valuable trade chip. So, if we are going to get something, we have to give something. 

 

Or, the other possibility is that they could move Calhoun back to 1B and we could upgrade RF. That would upgrade the offense overall. 

[tdawg87]

Trade Calhoun and a prospect for a starting pitcher.

Trade whatever for Stanton and Gordon.

Collect the Off-season Championship trophy.

 

Being a GM is easy.

[nate]

Is Calhoun really a valuable trade chip?  97 OPS+ 1.6 WAR players seem like they wouldn't be huge trade chips.

[tdawg87]

Just now, nate said:

Is Calhoun really a valuable trade chip?  97 OPS+ 1.6 WAR players seem like they wouldn't be huge trade chips.

Overall, I would say so. He's got a very team-friendly contract the next two years with a team option in 2020. 

Look at what Trumbo got us, for example. And Eppler isn't a complete mongoloid douchebag.

[nate]

13 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

And Eppler isn't a complete mongoloid douchebag.

This still takes some getting used to.  It's like Stockholm syndrome, I just expect the GM to be terrible.

Still, Trumbo hit lots of home runs and chicks dig the long ball, I think Calhoun is probably not much more valuable than someone like Cameron Maybin.

[tdawg87]

That's...an odd comparison. Maybin has been worth 4.1 bWAR since 2013. Calhoun has been worth 13.2 bWAR. Maybin's OPS+ is 92. Kole's is 110. Maybe in 2012 this would be a fair comp but definitely not now. 

Also Kole is a Ginger and Maybin is a Nice dude.

[tdawg87]

But, value isn't held in a vacuum. The other team would determine his value. 

Not saying we could get two MLB starting pitchers for Kole but I do think he could bring a solid 4 starter on his own. Throw in a prospect or two and that becomes a nice little package. Like cals.

[nate]

I guess Kole's arm in RF is worth a lot.  Maybe I am just jaded but he seems so streaky and inconsistent at the plate that he is JAG

[totdprods]

45 minutes ago, nate said:

Is Calhoun really a valuable trade chip?  97 OPS+ 1.6 WAR players seem like they wouldn't be huge trade chips.

That's just one season's worth though. He's been a fairly consistent 2.5-3.5 WAR player at a good age and good all around skills with a club-friendly contract. I think you can look at the haul Arizona got for Adam Eaton and scale back a tier there and it'd be fair. For all of his all-around skill, his OBP has been mostly trending the wrong way since he became a regular, so I could see how an improvement could be made.

A player like Kole is way more valuable in an offseason trade instead of a midseason trade too.

I still think Stanton, Gordon, and maybe Prado/reliever for Calhoun, a SP, and a couple OF prospects makes plenty of sense for both sides.

[JustATroutFan]

4 minutes ago, nate said:

I guess Kole's arm in RF is worth a lot.  Maybe I am just jaded but he seems so streaky and inconsistent at the plate that he is JAG

No, you're DEAD on. He is inconsistent. Had a nice year at the plate in on 2014 and 2016 but was decent in 215 and 2017.  Going by that trend, he should have a nice year with the bat in 2018 before disappointing the Angels fan base with the bat the following year in 2019.

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

No, you're DEAD on. He is inconsistent. Had a nice year at the plate in on 2014 and 2016 but was decent in 215 and 2017.  Going by that trend, he should have a nice year with the bat in 2018 before disappointing the Angels fan base with the bat the following year in 2019.

Yeah but you think everyone who isn't Trout is terrible so

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

No, you're DEAD on. He is inconsistent. Had a nice year at the plate in on 2014 and 2016 but was decent in 215 and 2017.  Going by that trend, he should have a nice year with the bat in 2018 before disappointing the Angels fan base with the bat the following year in 2019.

Or, if you take 2016 out as an outlier, he's been declining across the board every year since his debut. BA, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and WAR all declining each year. OBP was on trending the wrong way too but he was able to reverse that in '17.

'13 (58 G): .282/.347/.462/.808, OPS+ 128

'14 (127 G): .272/.325/.450/.776, OPS+ 123

'15 (159 G): .256/.308/.422/.731, OPS+ 104

'17 (155 G): .244/.333/.392/.725, OPS+ 97

WAR:

'14 = 4.1, '15 = 3.0, '17 = 2.1.....

That's a little worrisome, especially since he should be entering his prime.

[Stradling]

Kole was one of our better performers in his lone post season. 

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Or, if you take 2016 out as an outlier, he's been declining across the board every year since his debut.

'13 (58 G): .282/.347/.462/.808, OPS+ 128

'14 (127 G): .272/.325/.450/.776, OPS+ 123

'15 (159 G): .256/.308/.422/.731, OPS+ 104

'17 (155 G): .244/.333/.392/.725, OPS+ 97

WAR:

'14 = 4.1, '15 = 3.0, '17 = 2.1.....

That's a little worrisome.

But you can't take his 2016 season out.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

But you can't take his 2016 season out.

Why not?

[tdawg87]

Just now, totdprods said:

Why not?

Because it's a full season? It isn't even an outlier. He had a 116 OPS+ that year.

You can make any trend you want if you just pretend certain years didn't happen.

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Because it's a full season? It isn't even an outlier. He had a 116 OPS+ that year.

You can make any trend you want if you just pretend certain years didn't happen.

So he had a good year out of five where he was able to spike production back up in the midst of everything else declining. 

It's not like I'm cherry-picking out multiple years from different points in time to illustrate a trend. 

I was worried about Kole before 2016 - everything was trending the wrong way, but we were so screwed with LF no one wanted to even think Kole could do any wrong. He had a good '16 and I breathed a sigh of relief that he had instead put everything together and was going to stabilize from here on. Instead he followed it up with his worst year, picking up where his trend left off. And again, at a point in his career where he should be improving. Good player, happy to have him as our starting RF, but definitely open to dealing him or finding an upgrade.

[UndertheHalo]

This is difficult to take seriously.  Does not seem to fit what I think most of us think Eppler values. 

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

This is difficult to take seriously.  Does not seem to fit what I think most of us think Eppler values. 

That's my impression too. Maybe we don't know Billy like we thought we did.

[tdawg87]

23 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So he had a good year out of five where he was able to spike production back up in the midst of everything else declining. 

It's not like I'm cherry-picking out multiple years from different points in time to illustrate a trend. 

You're literally taking out an entire season because it doesn't fit your argument. That's the definition of cherry picking. Plus, you're using a year in which he had fewer than 200 at bats as the start of a trend and I mean come on now.

He's had 4 full seasons and all have been average-at-worst. He's not a star by any means, but he's a valuable player. IMO this is a classic case of NotTroutitis. 

Edited November 12, 2017 by tdawg87

[totdprods]

21 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

This is difficult to take seriously.  Does not seem to fit what I think most of us think Eppler values. 

Most difficult for me is, who exactly is a clear enough upgrade? Especially with cost considered?

Even in the Cron v. FA 1B debates, it was pretty easy to see who clear upgrades would be, but 'affordable' corner OFs that are a sure bet to outproduce Kole aren't numerous.