OC Register: Angels Notes: ‘Dialogue’ ongoing with Justin Upton

[Angelsjunky]

My guess is Upton wants six years, and the Angels him not to opt out and stick with four. Maybe adding a fifth year would be a good middle ground, so rather than 4/$88M, it would be 5/$110MM. My guess is he asks for--and gets--5/$125MM.

[totdprods]

29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

My guess is Upton wants six years, and the Angels him not to opt out and stick with four. Maybe adding a fifth year would be a good middle ground, so rather than 4/$88M, it would be 5/$110MM. My guess is he asks for--and gets--5/$125MM.

Every part of that sounds realistic. I'm fine with that deal. It's a little hefty but it's the price to pay, and Eppler has done a great job of keeping the rest of the team affordable as the Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson contracts expired.

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Every part of that sounds realistic. I'm fine with that deal. It's a little hefty but it's the price to pay, and Eppler has done a great job of keeping the rest of the team affordable as the Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson contracts expired.

It is a tad hefty, because Upton is a bit overrated, in my opinion. People talk about him like he's a true star, when I see him more as a borderline star - closer to Torii Hunter than Andrew McCutchen. Let's take a look at his performance, and compare him to the rest of the majors:

• In 2017 he hit .273/.361/.540 with 35 HR, a 137 wRC+, and 5.0 fWAR. According to fWAR he was the 17th best position player in the majors, and according to wRC+ he was the 23rd best overall hitter.
• He became a full-time player in 2008, when he played 108 games. Since then he has hit .270/.350/.482, with a 123 wRC+ (54th) and 33.3 fWAR (averaging 3.3 per year), good for 21st best in the majors. To put that another way, he's just outside of the twenty best position players over the course of his career.
• Over the last three years, he has hit .256/.336/.487, with a 120 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR, good for 49th in the majors. For context, Kole Calhoun has a 9.7 fWAR over the same period.

Upton had his second best season of his career in 2017. He's had three years that could be considered "star-caliber" (4.9, 5.0, 6.3 fWAR), three "good to very good" years (3.0, 3.5, 3.9), two average (2.2, 2.5), and two mediocre (0.6, 1.3). The median year would be 3.7 fWAR...which is very good but not a true star.

Now I for one don't buy in the WAR market value, because it only takes into account free agents and doesn't consider all players. When constructing a team, you consider all players - including those you get good value on who haven't made it to free agency or arbitration. So if we go by market, where the value something like $8MM per WAR, Upton would be "worth" almost $30 million a year...I just don't buy it. I think, at most, he's at $25MM, and maybe more likely $20-22M, considering his age and the fast that 40% of his ten full seasons have been average or worse.

What to expect going forward? His last two years were at 1.3 and 5.0 WAR, but the three before that were 3.0, 3.9, 3.5, establishing a consistent level of expectation; if you average out 2016 and 2017, it is right along with those previous three years. In other words, Upton is really a 3-4 WAR player, which is the definition of a borderline star, not a 5+ WAR true star. 

That said, considering the crap the Angels have had to put with in LF for years, he has a bit of extra value. So if I were Eppler, I'd be willing to stray on the higher end of that $20-25MM salary range, and give him 5/$120MM. But I'd still much prefer 4/$88MM, especially with Jones a couple years away, and Adell and Marsh a year or two behind.

[Ohtaniland]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That said, considering the crap the Angels have had to put with in LF for years, he has a bit of extra value. So if I were Eppler, I'd be willing to stray on the higher end of that $20-25MM salary range, and give him 5/$120MM. But I'd still much prefer 4/$88MM, especially with Jones a couple years away, and Adell and Marsh a year or two behind.

There’s no way he’s worth 5/$125. He’s not a complete player. He’s not a great defender and he’s not even a great hitter. He’s just better than what we have had out there. I would use Revere and spend the money on Hosmer until a better LF comes on the market. We’re on a 3 year plan anyway. What’s Upton going to look like in 3-4 years. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

25 minutes ago, Calzone said:

There’s no way he’s worth 5/$125. He’s not a complete player. He’s not a great defender and he’s not even a great hitter. He’s just better than what we have had out there. I would use Revere and spend the money on Hosmer until a better LF comes on the market. We’re on a 3 year plan anyway. What’s Upton going to look like in 3-4 years. 

I respect your take. But if we continue to put bandaids on our problems, dont we end up in the same spot weve been the last 2-3 years...which you usually complain about?

Upton isnt perfect, by any stretch....nobody available is. The closest ones to it are far more expensive than anyone here wants to pay.

[Angelsjunky]

 

29 minutes ago, Calzone said:

There’s no way he’s worth 5/$125. He’s not a complete player. He’s not a great defender and he’s not even a great hitter. He’s just better than what we have had out there. I would use Revere and spend the money on Hosmer until a better LF comes on the market. We’re on a 3 year plan anyway. What’s Upton going to look like in 3-4 years. 

I agree with you, but it depends what you mean by "worth." No players are really worth tens of millions of dollars. But the market is what the market is. Given the market, I think Upton is worth ~$18-20 million per year; add in the Angels black hole in LF and weak lineup, I'd bump that up to $22-25MM.

[Stradling]

Not to mention Hosmer is going to get $100 million and if Claude hates the up and down seasons of Upton he should look at Hosmer’s year after year WAR totals.   Not to mention his best year was this year where he was a 4 win player, while Upton was over a 5.  Lastly if we are going to give Upton a hard time about his defense, you should look at Hosmers D, it’s much worse than Cron, who people call limited defensively. The last three years he’s accumulated a -4 dWar.  

Edited October 15, 2017 by Stradling

[Ohtaniland]

54 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Not to mention Hosmer is going to get $100 million and if Claude hates the up and down seasons of Upton he should look at Hosmer’s year after year WAR totals.   Not to mention his best year was this year where he was a 4 win player, while Upton was over a 5.  Lastly if we are going to give Upton a hard time about his defense, you should look at Hosmers D, it’s much worse than Cron, who people call limited defensively. The last three years he’s accumulated a -4 dWar.  

I completely understand what you’re saying. Hosmer in my opinion brings a fiery edge with him that will help motivate the rest of the team. He’s a gamer and he’s turning 28 years old this month which is a plus in my opinion. 

I would also try to get Cain and move Trout over to LF. 

[ukyah]

assuming that the opt out is a certainty, which it is, in the sense that the angels won't be paying upton 4/88 under any circumstance.

would you rather have jd martinez or upton? if we're talking 5/125 for upton, then i prefer martinez. 

consider they are exactly the same age and neither are great fielders. 

the salary projections for martinez go as low as 5/90 and up to 5/132.

if we're talking the same money, then i vote martinez by a landslide.

"Still, a panel of scouts and executives surveyed don’t think Martinez will have any trouble securing a huge deal, drawing comparisons ranging from Hunter Pence’s five-year, $90 million contract to Justin Upton’s six-year, $132.75 million deal. No one expects a deal as long as Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184 million, but Heyward’s $23 million annual average value could be comparable, one scout said."

[Angelsjunky]

Martinez is a better hitter, but worse defender. The only way I sign Martinez is if the Angels are willing to bench Pujols and hand DH to Martinez in a year or two. And even then, he'll be a very high paid DH.

[totdprods]

It's inexplicable, but something about J.D. Martinez tells me he's going to wind up a major letdown. If we fail to retain Upton, I hope he isn't Plan B.

I still really think we match up well with Miami and one of their OFs. We could have a lot of payroll to work with and all of their bad contracts fit our needs.

[tdawg87]

Martinez has played more than 123 games once in his entire career. Upton has played at least 149 games in 7 straight seasons.

I agree that Martinez is a better hitter, but you have to factor in his ability to stay on the field (it's not very good). I know he only really became a full time player in 2014, but he's still missed a lot of games in that time.

Regardless, I'm happy with Upton and I think the Angels are too. His body and athleticism should hold up for at least 4-5 more years. 

[greginpsca]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

My guess is Upton wants six years, and the Angels him not to opt out and stick with four. Maybe adding a fifth year would be a good middle ground, so rather than 4/$88M, it would be 5/$110MM. My guess is he asks for--and gets--5/$125MM.

Josh Hamilton Part Deaux!

[Sully151]

3 hours ago, Calzone said:

I completely understand what you’re saying. Hosmer in my opinion brings a fiery edge with him that will help motivate the rest of the team. He’s a gamer and he’s turning 28 years old this month which is a plus in my opinion. 

I would also try to get Cain and move Trout over to LF. 

Trout loves playing Center. By moving him, you risk upsetting him. Then when his contract is up and another team says he can play Center, that could certainly sway his decision.

 

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, Calzone said:

I would also try to get Cain and move Trout over to LF. 

I think Cain is gonna make so much money on his contract for a 32 year old FA he'll have no problem sliding over to LF. 

If he was younger I could see it being a factor for him, but he's gonna make bank and if someone offers him huge money to play LF, he'll take it.

[totdprods]

With Upton, I feel the guy hasn't really had a shot to prove what he's really capable of and Anaheim can help him in that regard.

Dude has had immense expectations on him to be a generational star since Day One - 1st overall pick, big leagues at 19 years old, older brother was in the midst of his own explosively talented career. I do buy that the guy probably had maturity and make-up issues from the start and that definitely didn't help his case. It's honestly a little amazing he has been as productive all things considered.

He has had a very successful career at this point but it's really been mired by what everyone expected of him. Coupled with his brother infamously bombing and the way teams have treated him as a high-profile lotto pick/trade bait for the last few seasons, only to be ignored when he hit FA, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his up and down production in his 20's.

I think he feels wanted here (and felt wanted here two years ago) and most importantly, is comfortable here. Trout has the spotlight. I really think Upton's best years are going to be the next few, similar to what happened with Nelson Cruz and how Torii blossomed into a more complete player here. 

[ukyah]

personally, i take the better hitter. jd martinez would be an insane upgrade in moto.

[ukyah]

14 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Martinez has played more than 123 games once in his entire career. Upton has played at least 149 games in 7 straight seasons.

I agree that Martinez is a better hitter, but you have to factor in his ability to stay on the field (it's not very good). I know he only really became a full time player in 2014, but he's still missed a lot of games in that time.

Regardless, I'm happy with Upton and I think the Angels are too. His body and athleticism should hold up for at least 4-5 more years. 

true, but martinez is such a better hitter he does significantly more damage in those fewer at bats. he had 130 +/-  less at bats than upton, but produced significantly more in those fewer at bats. that means that the cumulative total of a full season of martinez or a 123 game season + another player produces significantly more than upton. upton is a very good hitter, but martinez is elite. the fact that he may be had for the same dollars as upton leads me to jump on martinez without equivocation. 

[Ohtaniland]

If Upton opts out for the purpose of testing the market. Screw him, reshuffle the cards and lets spend wisely on a couple of solid bats and a front line pitcher. 

[totdprods]

Martinez vs. Upton is a close call, but I would still lean Upton. Neither are great defensively but Upton has the edge and is a bit younger.

I really feel Upton has another developmental step forward coming (or is in the beginning of it) and he's going to be a solid .900+, 140 OPS+, 5-7 WAR guy the next few years and I'm not sure Martinez will match that over the duration. He may be a bit better offensively for a year or two but think he will come back down a little harder.

[Angelsjunky]

Holy fuck, I didn't realize that JD Martinez slugged .690! Damn...Now of course it is unlikely that he does that again, but he did consistently slug between .535 and .553 for the three years prior, has hit .300+ three out of the last four years, and only once had an OBP below .358. So I think he can safely be counted on hitting .300/.350+/.550+ with 35+ HR...if healthy. The big potential downside is that in three of those four years he's played between 119 and 123 games.

The other knock on Martinez is that he's slow and and a poor defender. So basically you're looking at a guy who is 30 years old, is a .900 OBP and has been the fifth best hitter in the majors over the last four years with a 148 wRC+--tied with Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt!--but is a liability in the field and on the base paths, and plays about 75-80% of the time. In other words, he's basically a three-quarters time "super DH."

How much is that worth? Probably less than Upton. If Upton's price is something like 5/$110-120MM, I think Martinez is something like 5/$100MM or even 4/$90MM. Of course someone could go ga-ga over that .690 SLG and ignore or rationalize the above, and give Martinez 6/$150MM. Hopefully not Eppler.

[totdprods]

The crash and burn factor is just a little too high for my tastes with Martinez. Incredible numbers and incredibly tempting still.

And the Astros let him go for nothing. Ideally, Eppler is looking for someone like J.D. Martinez before he became J.D. Martinez. 

This is a good read, the comments too.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/minor-moves-jd-martinez.html

[m0nkey]

I think it should be a requirement that if for every 5 pages an upton thread goes, someone needs to post a picture of kate

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Holy fuck, I didn't realize that JD Martinez slugged .690! Damn...Now of course it is unlikely that he does that again, but he did consistently slug between .535 and .553 for the three years prior, has hit .300+ three out of the last four years, and only once had an OBP below .358. So I think he can safely be counted on hitting .300/.350+/.550+ with 35+ HR...if healthy. The big potential downside is that in three of those four years he's played between 119 and 123 games.

The other knock on Martinez is that he's slow and and a poor defender. So basically you're looking at a guy who is 30 years old, is a .900 OBP and has been the fifth best hitter in the majors over the last four years with a 148 wRC+--tied with Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt!--but is a liability in the field and on the base paths, and plays about 75-80% of the time. In other words, he's basically a three-quarters time "super DH."

How much is that worth? Probably less than Upton. If Upton's price is something like 5/$110-120MM, I think Martinez is something like 5/$100MM or even 4/$90MM. Of course someone could go ga-ga over that .690 SLG and ignore or rationalize the above, and give Martinez 6/$150MM. Hopefully not Eppler.

Why not consider JD Martinez for 1st base? Martinez AND Upton goes a long way to solving our issues finding a decent second basemen, lol.

[ukyah]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

Martinez vs. Upton is a close call, but I would still lean Upton. Neither are great defensively but Upton has the edge and is a bit younger.

I really feel Upton has another developmental step forward coming (or is in the beginning of it) and he's going to be a solid .900+, 140 OPS+, 5-7 WAR guy the next few years and I'm not sure Martinez will match that over the duration. He may be a bit better offensively for a year or two but think he will come back down a little harder.

just to clarify for the sake of the conversation, upton is 4 days younger than martinez.