OC Register: Angels Notes: ‘Dialogue’ ongoing with Justin Upton

[Ohtaniland]

28 minutes ago, ukyah said:

just to clarify for the sake of the conversation, upton is 4 days younger than martinez.

and Hosmer is 2 years younger than both of them. I think he would be a great acquisition. Flip Cron for a middle reliever. 

[Stradling]

Except Hosmer isn’t as good and will be almost as expensive and is worse defensively.  Oh and he could get six years. 

[Dtwncbad]

I'll take both Hosmer and either Upton or Martinez.

Trade Cron for whatever you can get.

That lineup with so many more healthy arms going into 2018 would at least produce some legitimate optimism for a postseason.

They have the money now to surgically (one or two positions) improve some spots.  Unlike 2017, I dont think they can expect the fan base to be patient if there is available, unspent money.

 

[totdprods]

I'd still sign Santana over Hosmer. Less money, good defender, arguably a better hitter. I think he's going to age well.

[Angelsjunky]

The problem with Upton, Martinez, and Hosmer is that all three had career years in 2017 - or Upton his second best year. Who knows what level they'll have going forward? 

I'm less a fan of Hosmer than the other two, mainly because he'll want (and get) another year or two. Now if his 2017 is a new plateau that he can sustain for half a decade, I'll be happy to get him. But he's got six previous full seasons before that, and only one or two were somewhat close in production.

Also, notice that Hosmer alternates good and bad years. His wRC+ from 2011 through 2017: 113, 80, 120, 98, 124, 102, 135.

One good sign: if you look at the good and bad years as separate lines, they both have improved over time: from 80 to 98 to 102, and from 113 to 120 to 124 to 135. This implies that he'll produce something like a 105 wRC+ next year, and then 140 in 2019.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

The problem with Upton, Martinez, and Hosmer is that all three had career years in 2017 - or Upton his second best year. Who knows what level they'll have going forward? 

I'm less a fan of Hosmer than the other two, mainly because he'll want (and get) another year or two. Now if his 2017 is a new plateau that he can sustain for half a decade, I'll be happy to get him. But he's got six previous full seasons before that, and only one or two were somewhat close in production.

Also, notice that Hosmer alternates good and bad years. His wRC+ from 2011 through 2017: 113, 80, 120, 98, 124, 102, 135.

One good sign: if you look at the good and bad years as separate lines, they both have improved over time: from 80 to 98 to 102, and from 113 to 120 to 124 to 135. This implies that he'll produce something like a 105 wRC+ next year, and then 140 in 2019.

Sample size has to be taken into consideration but the guy is sporting a .654 OPS in Angel Stadium for his career...  his worst among any park with at least 100 PAs -- he's also a butcher with the glove.  To date he has never posted a positive dWAR, for his career he's a negative 8.0 WAR defensive player.  Cron's worst defensive season he put up a dWAR of 1.3 --  Hosmer has four seasons with a dWAR of negative 1.5 or higher.  So besides his track record of failure in Angel Stadium, bad defense, and offensive inconsistency year to year, there is also the concern he might be offered a QO -- it's believed that both Cain and Hosmer might end up with QOs.

Personally, I believe the Angels days of throwing big money at players on the bottom end of the defensive spectrum may behind them...   But if they did sign Hosmer it would IMO be a sign the team has learned nothing in recent years.

[disarcina]

The dialogue is something like this:

UPTON: I want this many years and this much over that total time, you can back load it.

ANGELS: Too many years, too many dollars.

UPTON: "Cue up "I'm Moving On"

[disarcina]

Hosmer is OK on defense. Pretty solid.

Good club house/ team guy.

But with Hosmer -- who did have a career year - -don't expect the 35 HR stuff.

More like a consistent 20-25 HRs, 85 -100 ribbies, .285 BA and decent glove at 1B - didn't Hosmer win a gold glove?

 

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, disarcina said:

The dialogue is something like this:

UPTON: I want this many years and this much over that total time, you can back load it.

ANGELS: Too many years, too many dollars.

UPTON: "Cue up "I'm Moving On"

I think you’re on the right track. If he opts out, he will certainly have his For Sale sign out and he will sign with the highest bidder that suits his needs. He says he wants to win but let’s see how it plays out. 

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, disarcina said:

Hosmer is OK on defense. Pretty solid.

Good club house/ team guy.

But with Hosmer -- who did have a career year - -don't expect the 35 HR stuff.

More like a consistent 20-25 HRs, 85 -100 ribbies, .285 BA and decent glove at 1B - didn't Hosmer win a gold glove?

 

He's not decent with the glove. Not at all.

[Ohtaniland]

7 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

He's not decent with the glove. Not at all.

Upton is a really poor defender. I’m really surprised about how many people are clamoring for him to stay for more money and years. 

[Stradling]

Just now, Calzone said:

Upton is a really poor defender. I’m really surprised about how many people are clamoring for him to stay for more money and years. 

Says the guy that wants Hosmer, who is worse defensively and offensively.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Says the guy that wants Hosmer, who is worse defensively and offensively.  

Yeah but he might get slightly less money and that's the important thing.

[SoWhat]

No thanks to Hosmer. Dude is a ground ball machine. I read that he credited his success this past season due to changing his launch angle and hitting more fly balls, the way J.D. Martinez and Yonder Alonso did to resurrect their careers, but when I checked the numbers on fangraphs his FB% was actually a career low. I don't get it, but yeah I'd stay away from Hosmer. If they wanna replace Cron, Eppler is better off signing Carlos Santana

[Ohtaniland]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Says the guy that wants Hosmer, who is worse defensively and offensively.  

 

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Yeah but he might get slightly less money and that's the important thing.

Hosmer is a gamer. Please tell me I’m lying about his 12 RBI’s in the 2015 postseason and his 17 RBI’s in the 2016 postseason. 

[Stradling]

Just now, Calzone said:

 

Hosmer is a gamer. Please tell me I’m lying about his 12 RBI’s in the 2015 postseason and his 17 RBI’s in the 2016 postseason. 

You are not lying.  But he is not as good of a player offensively or defensively than the guy that this thread is actually about.  

[tdawg87]

Just now, Calzone said:

 

Hosmer is a gamer. Please tell me I’m lying about his 12 RBI’s in the 2015 postseason and his 17 RBI’s in the 2016 postseason. 

Who gives a fuck how many RBI's he had in the postseason?

We should bring Mathis back because he's a "gamer".

[Ohtaniland]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You are not lying.  But he is not as good of a player offensively or defensively than the guy that this thread is actually about.  

Like I said, if Upton sticks to his original deal I’m fine with him. If he opts out and plays the I’m going to the highest bidder game, F-him, let him go to his 6th team. 

[Ohtaniland]

27 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Who gives a fuck how many RBI's he had in the postseason?

We should bring Mathis back because he's a "gamer".

Well we have Cron and Valbuena so I guess we’re good to go. Thanks. 

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Calzone said:

Well we have Cron and Valbuena so I guess we’re good to go. Thanks. 

And if we don't bring back Upton we have Eric Young Jr. 

You aren't even trying.

[Ohtaniland]

45 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

And if we don't bring back Upton we have Eric Young Jr. 

You aren't even trying.

No if that happens you know Eppler’s going to give Melvin Upton a spring training invite just for the lolz.

[ukyah]

5 hours ago, Calzone said:

and Hosmer is 2 years younger than both of them. I think he would be a great acquisition. Flip Cron for a middle reliever. 

we're talking about LF which the angels are going to replace one way or another. hosmer doesn't enter this conversation.

 

on topic, in spite of what i've said about preferring martinez, i think upton is the even money favorite to play LF for the angels next year.

[Docwaukee]

Upton is a free agent.  People need to wrap their heads around that.   Just assume that his current contract doesn't exist.  The only advantage for the Halos is that we have an exclusive window to sign him first.  

The Halos current payroll is about 135 mil for 2018 when you include arb, guarantees, and league min guys.  Add about 15 mil for benefits and subtract a few mil for AAV it gives you about 145 mil.  The CBT threshold is $197 mil for 2018.  They aren't going to spend all the way to it during the off season.  Probably leave about 15mil in reserve.  So that's about 35 to 40 mil in max spending.  

Adding any one of Martinez, Hosmer or Upton is going to bring on about 25 mil AAV.  Leaving the team with another 15 mil or so to spend.  MAX.  To think that they'll sign two of these guys is a pipe dream.  

Here's another thing to keep in mind.  The only guys of significant money  coming off the books after 2018 are Valbuena and Richards.  To the tune of about 15 mil.  Plus a 10 mil bump in the CBT threshold for 2019.  Gives another 25mil but....There are a slew of guys hitting arb for 2019 so that entire amount is nearly offset.  

So if Arte is going to stay below the CBT (as he always does) then signing one FA this year pretty much takes the team out of the mix for any player of consequence in 2019.  

It's not a given they blow their entire load this year.  

[Ohtaniland]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Upton is a free agent.  People need to wrap their heads around that.   Just assume that his current contract doesn't exist.  The only advantage for the Halos is that we have an exclusive window to sign him first.  

The Halos current payroll is about 135 mil for 2018 when you include arb, guarantees, and league min guys.  Add about 15 mil for benefits and subtract a few mil for AAV it gives you about 145 mil.  The CBT threshold is $197 mil for 2018.  They aren't going to spend all the way to it during the off season.  Probably leave about 15mil in reserve.  So that's about 35 to 40 mil in max spending.  

Adding any one of Martinez, Hosmer or Upton is going to bring on about 25 mil AAV.  Leaving the team with another 15 mil or so to spend.  MAX.  To think that they'll sign two of these guys is a pipe dream.  

Here's another thing to keep in mind.  The only guys of significant money  coming off the books after 2018 are Valbuena and Richards.  To the tune of about 15 mil.  Plus a 10 mil bump in the CBT threshold for 2019.  Gives another 25mil but....There are a slew of guys hitting arb for 2019 so that entire amount is nearly offset.  

So if Arte is going to stay below the CBT (as he always does) then signing one FA this year pretty much takes the team out of the mix for any player of consequence in 2019.  

It's not a given they blow their entire load this year.  

This is an excellent post Doc. When I read that Mike Trout mentioned that we had a lot of money coming off the books I kinda shook my head. I’m not sure that he understands baseball economics.

The other thing is that there are other teams out there with money coming off the books that are going to be contenders and ready to spend. Somebody mentioned that the Angels already have more payroll committed in 2018 than the Yankees. Not sure if that’s accurate.

[beatlesrule]

I'll be shocked if Arte spends a lot of money.