Jon Heyman: Angels still eyeing free agent hitters

[ettin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

It's a total gamble and I acknowledge that. Not sure why the fixation is on the outfielder comparisons, as it is secondary to the whole purpose of this. This is like the Angels signing an all-star catcher and everyone immediately getting excited about who should be the back-up...

The main thing I'm wanting to discuss is swapping Kole for an equatable SP. The outfielder is just the following move brought in with a hope and a prayer they produce one of their good years and we don't miss a step.

What kind of SP could Kole bring in? What's realistic? No one seems to even want to talk about it, and that's why I bring it up.

Kole has roughly $50M in surplus value. To me that means he could net a top pitching prospect (Top 25 probably anyone in the Top 10). If you're talking more established MLB starters then I'd probably say someone like Matt Moore plus a mid-tier prospect (2-for-1), Luke Weaver plus a mid-tier prospect (2-for-1), about 60% of Danny Salazar, maybe Dylan Bundy (risky for both sides),  about 70% of Marcus Stroman, about 55% of Aaron Sanchez, Jose De Leon, Sean Manaea, you might sneak Matt Boyd.... that's all I got tot.... have to go to a dentist appointment now

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, ettin said:

Kole has roughly $50M in surplus value. To me that means he could net a top pitching prospect (Top 25 probably anyone in the Top 10). If you're talking more established MLB starters then I'd probably say someone like Matt Moore plus a mid-tier prospect (2-for-1), Luke Weaver plus a mid-tier prospect (2-for-1), about 60% of Danny Salazar, maybe Dylan Bundy (risky for both sides), Luke Weaver (maybe if the Cards sell now), about 70% of Marcus Stroman, about 55% of Aaron Sanchez, Jose De Leon, Sean Manaea, you might sneak Matt Boyd.... that's all I got tot.... have to go to a dentist appointment now

Dude, good luck. I spent all of November in the dentists office. It was never as bad as I thought it would be though! 

Thanks for that reply, that's exactly the kind of convo I'm looking for. A lot of those names I feel are worth considering - it may prevent us for spending 5/$80 on a SP next offseason. It gives us even further depth going forward so we can be a little more flexible with our draft strategy - maybe we don't need to draft a college arm now, though I still hope they do. 

If Kole has another season like '15, his salary still goes up and his trade value goes down, and while it's perfectly acceptable to hold him still, I still think he is a valuable trade chip for the team going forward, and his peak value may be right now.

You could can even remove Rasmus/Saunders completely, just put Revere in RF, and sign Alvarez/Moss/Valbuena for lefty thump. But ew.

[nando714]

Bautista facing the rangers 19 times 

I'd watch 

[Angelsjunky]

I agree with the idea that Eppler should at least listen on Kole, but he shouldn't do anything less than sell high: that is, a major league ready top pitching prospect, and another good prospect with high upside. In other words, Kole shouldn't be traded for anything less than a young starter close to ready and with at least #2-3 potential, and a second prospect that would fit nicely in the team's top 5-10 prospects.

Even then, the team is faced with either losing 2-3 WAR through having Maybin and Revere start, over-spending on Bautista, or spending on Rasmus or Saunders. And of course there's the "fan favorite" aspect of Kole, which is hard to quantify in dollar value.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree with the idea that Eppler should at least listen on Kole, but he shouldn't do anything less than sell high: that is, a major league ready top pitching prospect, and another good prospect with high upside. In other words, Kole shouldn't be traded for anything less than a young starter close to ready and with at least #2-3 potential, and a second prospect that would fit nicely in the team's top 5-10 prospects.

Even then, the team is faced with either losing 2-3 WAR through having Maybin and Revere start, over-spending on Bautista, or spending on Rasmus or Saunders. And of course there's the "fan favorite" aspect of Kole, which is hard to quantify in dollar value.

That seems like a very fair, and very realistic, asking price for Kole. I don't think it's impossible someone pays that either. I outlined some potential teams on Page Two, but there are not many fits, making this scenario that much more unlikely. 

No way would I sign Bautista in place of Calhoun. We lose way too much defensively and get way too expensive, right-handed, and old. 
I only consider Rasmus/Saunders if their price has dropped significantly. Rasmus I would only offer one-year, certainly no more than $6-$9m. His injuries parallel his brother's too much and he seems far more volatile. Rasmus has also expressed interest in retiring young.
Saunders I would offer two years, maybe $5-8m per year, simply because I feel at worst, he'd be an adequate 4th OF/bench piece if relegated to that sometime during the season. He'd probably be more interested in signing just for one though in hopes of proving last year wasn't a fluke and hitting the market again next year. 

I still feel confident that one of them could produce a Calhoun-esque season and think their prices have probably dropped by this point to a very affordable amount.

There's definitely a 'fan favorite' value there, but frankly I get the vibe Eppler doesn't give a shit about that. Not yet at least. 

[disarcina]

Bautista is open to a one year deal somewhere ----- I know we have our share of DH types on the team.......but Bautista is a 35-40 HR guy.

we could use some pop with the line up we have so far.........

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, disarcina said:

Bautista is open to a one year deal somewhere ----- I know we have our share of DH types on the team.......but Bautista is a 35-40 HR guy.

we could use some pop with the line up we have so far.........

He is more likely a 20-30 HR guy in the AL West, and I think Cron can be about the same next season.
Cron is really the only guy he could be displacing if he signed here. 

[SigBaby]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He is more likely a 20-30 HR guy in the AL West, and I think Cron can be about the same next season.
Cron is really the only guy he could be displacing if he signed here. 

I'm not on board with going after Bautista, but it's not like this lineup doesn't have areas that can be upgraded. He could easily get a lot of starts combined between left, right, DH, and 1st giving guys days off and adding depth in case of injury (mostly Pujols insurance). 

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, SigBaby said:

I'm not on board with going after Bautista, but it's not like this lineup doesn't have areas that can be upgraded. He could easily get a lot of starts combined between left, right, DH, and 1st giving guys days off and adding depth in case of injury (mostly Pujols insurance). 

He can definitely get a few starts in LF/RF, and that's part of why I would understand (not advocate) him being of interest to the Angels. He gives you more positional versatility, vet power presence, more OBP, and a little more athleticism than Cron. The question is if those are worth a $20-$40m commitment. 

Like I mentioned, I could see a parallel to the Maldonado/Bandy and Nolasco/Santiago trades. You're sacrificing some cheaper upside (as Cron could very well be much better offensively than Bautista in '18, if not '17, and far cheaper) in return for a safer, known mid-ground. Obviously we've seen this bite us before, but a .250/.350/.480 Bautista campaign with 25-30 HRs seems well within reason still, and we'd all kill for Cron to do that next year.

Just depends on if you could get Bautista down to a 1/$20 or a, eek, 2/$36, and if you can get a worthy return for Cron, who likely would be without a place. If I were to go that route, I'd push for a one-year deal and hope that Jose thinks he'd be better off back in the market next year without a QO or guys like Trumbo, Carter, Encarnacion, etc. available.

[Angel Oracle]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

Sure there is. He's actually the quintessential Angel addition circa '04-'12. Likely to be overpaid vet with declining skills and name recognition. 
His offensive production should compare to Cron's over a couple year window, he can play the same position as Cron, he can (poorly) play a couple positions Cron can't, and he can fit in a wider spectrum of spots in the line-up than Cron. 

The question is if it's worth the difference in their salary, the loss of a draft pick, and what trade value Cron has, and if all those variables together are worth it. I don't think it's the route they will go or the best route, but it's not impossible to see a scenario where it could fit into their plans.

The Maldonado for Bandy and Santiago for Nolasco trades are actually comparable to Bautista for Cron. 
In both of those trades, Eppler dealt a more volatile player with higher upside and higher risk for an almost equivalent player with less upside but a far safer, more consistent mid-point. In both of those trades, Eppler got an additional piece (Meyer, Gagnon) as compensation for missing out on that player's upside.

So, if you think of it as trading Cron and a draft pick for Bautista and Cron's return, it's really not that divergent from what Eppler's done.

As it stands, Eppler has a lot to work on for next offseason. We will need to fill 3B, 2B, LF, UT IF, and 4th OF without much internally. I'm a little surprised he hasn't added anyone this offseason who had a little more control, simply for the fact that he is setting himself up to be needing to cover a lot again next year. Bautista's offensive advantage, and slight positional versatility, over Cron eases a bit of that pressure for next season too.

I can see Eppler looking closely at how Espinosa, Maybin, and Revere all perform in 2017.   If they perform well enough, I can see him signing them to new 2-year deals which buys two more years to develop the farm further at their positions.

Then if Sherman Johnson is ready to take on the utility INF job after 2017 (a la Figgins), that only leaves 3B to fill of the 5 positions you mentioned. 

With Cron's improved defense numbers and improved pitch recognition and still not great trade value, I'd rather hold on to him and not pursue the aging Bautista who could morph into something like Mr. Pop-Up Wells with leaving the Rogers Centre.

[totdprods]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

I can see Eppler looking closely at how Espinosa, Maybin, and Revere all perform in 2017.   If they perform well enough, I can see him signing them to new 2-year deals which buys two more years to develop the farm further at their positions.

Then if Sherman Johnson is ready to take on the utility INF job after 2017 (a la Figgins), that only leaves 3B to fill of the 5 positions you mentioned. 

Yes, it will hinge big-time on their performance of course. I think that's part of why Eppler targeted them - he knew if they producing, he'd have a head-start on re-signing them. We gave them opportunity to rebound, and sometimes that helps you get a discount - see Andrew Bailey. In Danny Espinosa's case, we have a hometown discount lined up already.

Conversely, they'll be easier to trade if the team was failing. There's also a chance every single one of them suck or want to test the open market though, and that's where my only concern is right now regarding Eppler - we didn't bring in much of anything to help the upper minors or offer internal solutions for all those positions, so he still may need to fill all these needs again next offseason.

[disarcina]

well $20 million for one year of Bautista seems a bit expensive.

Cron's ST performance could be the key -- I am not sold on Cron. He's gotten better defensively, still K's too much.

but if he can light it up in ST and so he's improving each step/ each year -- well, perhaps we can pass on getting another BIG BAT theory.

right now with our 'strong up the middle' approach - which I like -- we look a little short in the offensive power category.......a big bat would help.

[nikkachez]

23 minutes ago, disarcina said:

well $20 million for one year of Bautista seems a bit expensive.

Cron's ST performance could be the key -- I am not sold on Cron. He's gotten better defensively, still K's too much.

 

I have to disagree with this, Cron's always been good about putting the ball in play. He had a 16.9% K rate last season, that's VERY good for someone with a .467 SLG%. Put another way, guys he had a lower K% than: J.D. Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Todd Frazier, George Springer, Wil Myers, Nelson Cruz, Ian Desmond, Brandon Belt, Dexter Fowler, Jackei Bradley Jr., Kris Bryant, Rougned Odor, Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kipnis, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Correa, Evan Longoria, Christian Yelich, Odubel Herrera, Gregory Polanco, Mike Trout, Brian Dozier, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Eric Hosmer, Starling Marte, Edwin Encarnacion, Corey Seager, Bryce Harper, Matt Carpenter, Troy Tulowitzki, Jonathan Lucroy, Joey Votto, Kole Calhoun, Ryan Braun, Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, and Josh Donaldson. He woud've been tied for 95th in baseball with Ian Kinsler had he played the whole season. Cron offers a very unqiue skillset of offering + power and limiting K's, that's a very rare combination.

 

My offseason homework for Cron is simple, keep improving his BB% (went up to 5.4% last year which, while still an improvement, could get better), keep improving as a first baseman defensively, and don't get hit on the hand by a pitch.  

[totdprods]

Billy Butler at his peak, '09-'13, is what I would hope Cron could attain, and I think it's a possibility. Lots and lots of doubles, manageable K's 20-30 HR power, a .285 average and a good number of walks. 

Cron might pop a few more HR's and hit for a slightly lower average, but he makes really good contact to all fields which is pretty unique for a guy like him. If he keeps the ball on a line and doesn't get homer happy he could be a doubles machine. 

[disarcina]

well OK about Cron and K's -- my take wasn't on the numbers or scientific or anything like that.

just based on watching Angels games in 2015 and 2016 probably more weighted to 3015 because I kind of stopped watching the Halos regularly mid-season 2016 (just too painful) and it seemed like every time I watched Cron on TV he was striking out........of course, Trout strikes out a lot as well.

hey, am sure you've all noticed that FSN is re-playing 2016 Halos games over the past month and currently.......a friend of mine (another long time Halos fan) and I were laughing about that at breakfast coffee this morning -- I mean, we didn't watch some of these games when they were LIVE -- so now we're going to watch the re-play months later???

Oh well, the FSN staff needs some holiday time off as well.........it's OK.

[disarcina]

2015 - typo

[ettin]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

Dude, good luck. I spent all of November in the dentists office. It was never as bad as I thought it would be though! 

Thanks for that reply, that's exactly the kind of convo I'm looking for. A lot of those names I feel are worth considering - it may prevent us for spending 5/$80 on a SP next offseason. It gives us even further depth going forward so we can be a little more flexible with our draft strategy - maybe we don't need to draft a college arm now, though I still hope they do. 

If Kole has another season like '15, his salary still goes up and his trade value goes down, and while it's perfectly acceptable to hold him still, I still think he is a valuable trade chip for the team going forward, and his peak value may be right now.

You could can even remove Rasmus/Saunders completely, just put Revere in RF, and sign Alvarez/Moss/Valbuena for lefty thump. But ew.

My insurance cycle ends on the 31st for the end of year.... Root canal today.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 12/30/2016 at 0:45 PM, nando714 said:

Bautista facing the rangers 19 times 

I'd watch 

But, to watch him get his arse kicked by a midget in our Home Town Red uniforms isn't as funny.......

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

23 hours ago, disarcina said:

Bautista is open to a one year deal somewhere ----- I know we have our share of DH types on the team.......but Bautista is a 35-40 HR guy.

we could use some pop with the line up we have so far.........

I would not wish to lose the 2nd round pick and the $500k in international spending since we've been locked out of it due to JeDi's boy......

[Jobu]

Jon Heyman: Every team super interested in every Scott Boras client 

[Brent Maguire]

Trading Calhoun isn't a smart move IMO unless you're overwhelmed with an offer. 3 years of Calhoun is pretty darn valuable and unless you're getting a high upside cost controlled starter and solid prospect back, I'd just hold onto him. Replacing Calhoun with any of the remaining free agents is pretty tough as Saunders has had injury/performance issues in most of his years and Rasmus has been one of the more volatile players in baseball. If Calhoun was traded, I'd prefer it'd only happen were the Angels to completely tank and were looking to sell off a bunch of players. 

[totdprods]

10 hours ago, Angels_Baseball said:

Trading Calhoun isn't a smart move IMO unless you're overwhelmed with an offer. 3 years of Calhoun is pretty darn valuable and unless you're getting a high upside cost controlled starter and solid prospect back, I'd just hold onto him. Replacing Calhoun with any of the remaining free agents is pretty tough as Saunders has had injury/performance issues in most of his years and Rasmus has been one of the more volatile players in baseball. If Calhoun was traded, I'd prefer it'd only happen were the Angels to completely tank and were looking to sell off a bunch of players. 

Add MLB-ready to that first player and that's what I'm basically proposing. 

No, Rasmus or Saunders aren't an exact replacement for Calhoun but it isn't impossible that one of them could provide the same production. Revere factors in too. There's risk there, but you've improved the pitching staff substantially, and that's what we all agree needs help right now. 

You'd just have to bank on Maybin, Espinosa, and Revere providing enough improvement (and everyone else maintaining) to compensate for the gap between Calhoun and Rasmus/Saunders.

You could even skip Saunders/Rasmus completely if you revisit the Diamondbacks again - they have a glut of SPs and could afford to part with one of. Bradley, Corbin, Ray, Miller for Calhoun, and you may even be able to get Peralta back to replace Kole. Arizona may opt for the sure thing in Kole (and view him as a hometown discount extension candidate) over Peralta, and be willing to spare him and a SP for the opportunity. Yasmany Tomas may also be in play. He put up some gaudy counting stats last year, but he is also not the best defensively and owed a good bit of a money, which may be a big negative on the Dback's new FO in the post-Greinke years.

[Brent Maguire]

@totdprods Something center around Robbie Ray and David Peralta would be cool. Don't think Calhoun gets you both by himself so you'd have to probably include someone like Meyer in the deal to get something done.