Jon Heyman: Angels still eyeing free agent hitters

[Troll Daddy]

4 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

But isnt it easier to teach pitch framing than how to hit ML pitching? Cant guys learn this fairly quickly?

It's a rather new ability that some catchers have resisted learning;  not knowing if it was legit.

I'm also waiting for the umpire backlash on this, where umps recognize what the catcher is doing and begins to start calling balls, when the catcher "slides" the mitt over. Just a theory of mine.

Pitch framing started at the turn of the century. Framing is taught in little league. It's a instinctive move for all catchers. 

Personally, I don't put a whole lot of credence in it. The umpires play a big role in framing. It's a interesting stat at best. 

I know I'm in the minority here but wtf is new.

[Erstad Grit]

Bautista at 2/30 is pretty damn tempting. My hunch is Angels don't want to give up that draft pick. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, NJHalo said:

This I am all for. If last season proved anything, it's that you can never have enough starting pitching. I would rather have too many, like many people thought we had at the start of last season, than not enough, and have to go dumpster diving. There is not one pitcher on this staff that you can count on, so I say trade Cole while his value is still high.

I still can't really see Eppler feeling like he wants to shake the earth to that degree, but an argument could be made that he could take a gamble on Rasmus or Saunders on a one-year deal and hope they have a big year which should land them around the same production Calhoun should provide. Rasmus shit the bed last year, and Saunders was a one-half wonder, so there is risk, but a good, young, controllable #3 type SP could offset that risk. Additionally, in that scenario, you'd have to think Eppler would be banking on at least one of Maybin, Revere, or Rasmus/Saunders to be productive and happy enough that they wind up re-signing or locking in an extension to cover one of the OF positions over roughly the same amount of time and money that Calhoun would have been.

At a glance, I only see a couple possibilities where a Calhoun for SP deal could be realistic.
Giants pushed themselves right to the edge of their payroll limits with Melancon, and could use another OF, and probably some pen help still, but can't really afford to spend anymore. Dealing Samardzija would free up quite a bit of payroll from them, but don't see the Angels being too keen on that commitment either. Matt Moore could be an intriguing option. The money and control is comparable enough that a one for one could make sense.

Diamondbacks are probably comfortable with Peralta and Tomas in the corners, but if they valued Calhoun's consistency, defense and contract over Yasmany's or were worried about Peralta bouncing back or Drury maintaining, they have plenty of young, potentially good SP depth that could be moved in Corbin, Ray, Bradley, and Miller. Kole being from AZ could be identified as a candidate that the new budget-conscious FO could see as the ideal extension candidate as well to avoid dealing with reliance on future FAs. 

Cardinals seem like a team that would love Kole, but are pretty set with Grichuk, Fowler, and Piscotty unless they do some additional trades involving Peralta, Carpenter, or Adams, and move Piscotty to first. They don't have many MLB-tested SPs they could deal, but they have a plethora of MLB-ready AAA SPs. 

Blue Jays could use help in the OF still, but I'd imagine they'd bring back Bautista, Rasmus, or Saunders before surrendering Sanchez or Stroman, and those are really the only SPs that'd even be worth discussing for Kole. The Orioles are in virtually the same position. They could use Kole and could potentially deal an arm (Gausman, Bundy, Hunter) for him, but would likely look at Trumbo, Rasmus, or Saunders first. 

Rays are interesting because they have numerous good young SPs, a logjam of offense-first MIFs, and even after Ramos, need help at catcher. It would require some other deals, but Calhoun, Perez, Marte, and Cron all could be of interest to them, and dealing any of them could open the door to potential FA hitters for the Angels to sign. Almost too many possibilities here to even begin speculating.

The Angels and teams like the Braves, Dodgers, Nationals, Tigers and Mets could follow a template like the Nolasco trade, where they deal an older, expensive OF (Kemp, Markakis, Ethier, Granderson, Werth, Bruce, Upton, Martinez) for a younger, cheaper upgrade in Calhoun and throw in a SP as a sweetener, but this would go so wildly against the grain of Eppler's other moves centered around cost-efficiency that I can't imagine it's too likely.

is Corbin/Miller/Ray/Moore/Bundy and Saunders/Rasmus better than Calhoun and what we have now or what's left of FA SP?

I really doubt this is in play at all, but still an interesting idea.

[Second Base]

I highly doubt the Angels would deal Calhoun. More likely, they'd deal Cron. But this simply isn't going to happen.

1. Arte won't go over the CBT line, he's proven that for years now. So we can't afford adding a high priced or even a mid priced free agent.

2. Cron hasn't built up value yet, and we'd be selling low. Eppler bring so apt at buying low would know better than to sell low.

The Angels are probably just keeping track of Bautista, Napoli and Trumbo in case the market disappears and they're left accepting something in the 1/8 range to build value back up for another run at FA next year. But even if that happens, it's doubtful we'd be anyone's first choice outside of Trumbo because of his So-Cal roots. Napoli hated Scioscia, and Joey Bats has no connection here.

[NJHalo]

54 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Weiters is a decent hitting catcher but not a good hitter.  And he's basically become an average defensive catcher when you factor in his pitch framing.  

If they had a trade in place and ready prior to making a FA signing then it would have to be significant or else I'm just not seeing how signing any of the available hitters moves the needle much for this team.  

Now if you told me you were moving Cron for a top pitching prospect and a potentially major league ready dynamic reliever as well as a 2b or 3b prospect and then you were going to sign Weiters to play 1b then ok.  

I would think any established FA starting catcher would be hesitant to sign with the Angels, knowing they would be put under Scioscia's microscope.

[WeatherWonk]

23 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Bautista at 2/30 is pretty damn tempting. My hunch is Angels don't want to give up that draft pick. 

Man, our lineup is already so right-handed. One lefty and one switch hitter.

I still think we are punting on 2017. The heavy FA lifting will be done before 2018.

[nando714]

I just don't see how any of these guys fit in the line up (Weiters, Trumbo, Bautista?)

we'd definitely need to trade 1 of cron or Calhoun. I couldn't care less about losing cron but we would have to have a very nice return on Calhoun. Who I wouldn't lose sleep over either if he was shipped off for some nice pitching 

[AngelStew43]

If we were looking at any of the free agent hitters remaining, I would suspect that there would be a follow up deal already in place for one of our current players not named Pujols or Trout.  Also, I have a strong feeling that we will be keeping our draft choices, so anyone with draft choice compensation would be out, so no Trumbo or Bautista.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Pitch framing started at the turn of the century. Framing is taught in little league. It's a instinctive move for all catchers. 

Personally, I don't put a whole lot of credence in it. The umpires play a big role in framing. It's a interesting stat at best. 

I know I'm in the minority here but wtf is new.

So I agree that umpires play a big role in called strikes and balls, they define the current strike zones in any particular game. How many times have you seen a pitch and they get it wrong when compared to the tracking systems (the white outlined batter's box that appears on your TV screen)? I would agree that there is some error built in there TD but I don't think it is as significant or pronounced as it might appear. There was a recent study on umpire strike and ball calling and they found that the group of umpires as a whole were pretty accurate.

I may be talking to the wall here though TD

[AngelsLakersFan]

25 minutes ago, ettin said:

So I agree that umpires play a big role in called strikes and balls, they define the current strike zones in any particular game. How many times have you seen a pitch and they get it wrong when compared to the tracking systems (the white outlined batter's box that appears on your TV screen)? I would agree that there is some error built in there TD but I don't think it is as significant or pronounced as it might appear. There was a recent study on umpire strike and ball calling and they found that the group of umpires as a whole were pretty accurate.

I may be talking to the wall here though TD

I'd have to dig through the link again, but I believe the data in that BP piece Oz posted in the catcher framing thread implied that the umpires have a larger impact on ball/strike calls than catcher framing.

[gurn67]

I've felt all off season that if, at the last minute, a Bobby Abreu 2009 type opportunity comes up where they can get an established productive hitter at a huge discount (Abreu took about a 70% pay cut from his previous years' salary) they'll go for it.

[Tank]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Bautista at 2/30 is pretty damn tempting. My hunch is Angels don't want to give up that draft pick. 

does bautista get us to the next level or put us over the top? that's the question to answer.

do we somewhat waste another year of having trout without a legit shot at a ring? that has to be answered also.

given the sad state of the farm system, i, too, think they'd prefer to have the draft pick.

[totdprods]

Bautista would be intriguing but his addition would virtually require Cron being dealt. I really can't see anyway around it. There is an attitude issue perception there, but I've also ready enough where it sounds as if he is pretty damn open to doing anything for the team. Leading off? Sure. First? Sure. Corner outfield? Sure. I bet he'd even try third again. 

And again...nineteen games against the Rangers? Would be extremely fun if he played up to them like Napoli does to us. Would be a great insurance policy if Pujols is late to start or gets injured again.

If Cron netted you a prospect that made up for the loss of a 2nd rounder and you could get Bautista on a one or two year bargain I'd definitely consider it. His production should be safe to match Cron's, and possibly exceed greatly. Maybe you even find a team who takes Escobar and his salary with Cron in return for giving up less, and we use those savings for Bautista (new lead-off hitter and 1B) and Valbuena (better 3B and switch-hitter).

His OBP has been extremely consistent, and impressive, both last season and over the last several seasons.

[ettin]

21 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I'd have to dig through the link again, but I believe the data in that BP piece Oz posted in the catcher framing thread implied that the umpires have a larger impact on ball/strike calls than catcher framing.

So I went ahead and dug ALF, and there is an article from last year (I'll mark it as 2015 since we are so close to the demarcation line for 2017 ) here: http://www.businessinsider.com/major-league-baseball-umpires-balls-and-strikes-2015-9

It indicates that umpires still miss about 14% of calls per game on average. It is likely that the bulk of those missed calls are on pitches near the edge of the zone (seems reasonable). I would probably argue that some of those missed calls are due to a catcher framing the pitch and fooling the umpire (again seems reasonable).

I'm sitting here wondering how many of those missed calls are actually umpire error or good pitch framing. It certainly is a mix but I have to think that it has more to do with good pitch framing more so than bad umpiring. I suppose I could be swayed with a really awesome argument

[Ohtaniland]

So what exactly does eyeing mean? We pretty much do that all year long here. 

I'm still excited that we are "In on Turner"

[Inside Pitch]

It means Heyman is trying to generate clicks...   

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

So I went ahead and dug ALF, and there is an article from last year (I'll mark it as 2015 since we are so close to the demarcation line for 2017 ) here: http://www.businessinsider.com/major-league-baseball-umpires-balls-and-strikes-2015-9

It indicates that umpires still miss about 14% of calls per game on average. It is likely that the bulk of those missed calls are on pitches near the edge of the zone (seems reasonable). I would probably argue that some of those missed calls are due to a catcher framing the pitch and fooling the umpire (again seems reasonable).

I'm sitting here wondering how many of those missed calls are actually umpire error or good pitch framing. It certainly is a mix but I have to think that it has more to do with good pitch framing more so than bad umpiring. I suppose I could be swayed with a really awesome argument

I went back and I found the specific link I was referring to: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25514

You gotta dig into the math, and it turns out my recollection was faulty, but it gives the catcher credit for 2.7% of the call discrepancy, while the pitcher, batter and umpire get 1.4%, 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Bautista would be intriguing but his addition would virtually require Cron being dealt. I really can't see anyway around it. There is an attitude issue perception there, but I've also ready enough where it sounds as if he is pretty damn open to doing anything for the team. Leading off? Sure. First? Sure. Corner outfield? Sure. I bet he'd even try third again. 

And again...nineteen games against the Rangers? Would be extremely fun if he played up to them like Napoli does to us. Would be a great insurance policy if Pujols is late to start or gets injured again.

If Cron netted you a prospect that made up for the loss of a 2nd rounder and you could get Bautista on a one or two year bargain I'd definitely consider it. His production should be safe to match Cron's, and possibly exceed greatly. Maybe you even find a team who takes Escobar and his salary with Cron in return for giving up less, and we use those savings for Bautista (new lead-off hitter and 1B) and Valbuena (better 3B and switch-hitter).

His OBP has been extremely consistent, and impressive, both last season and over the last several seasons.

^^^^ This!.... And that is why I doubt any of those hitters (Bautista more so than Trumbo) doesn't receive a short term deal..... That loss of the 2nd rounder and international cash...Is huge this year!

 

Bad time to be a 35+ year old FA hitter.......

[ettin]

35 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

^^^^ This!.... And that is why I doubt any of those hitters (Bautista more so than Trumbo) doesn't receive a short term deal..... That loss of the 2nd rounder and international cash...Is huge this year!

 

Bad time to be a 35+ year old FA hitter.......

Bautista really miscalculated his market I think. I really don't see him getting more than 3 years and $50M or so.

[California Cajun]

I really think the Angels are done after getting a left fielder, a 4th outfielder,  a second baseman, and a catcher (still don't understand replacing a 26 year old catcher with a 30 year old catcher).  Don't see them going after Wieters. Angels won't spend a lot until at least 2018.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Bautista really miscalculated his market I think. I really don't see him getting more than 3 years and $50M or so.

And Texas is in talks with NAPS on a 2 year deal.... I wonder where that sets them back on the International signing $$$ if any?

[ukyah]

bautista is a scary signing. you want to look at him for what he's done in the past, but man alive that dude's 36 years old. i suppose a two or three year deal wouldn't kill the franchise, but we've worked pretty long and hard to just begin to see the light of day after several bad FA signing in a row. scary time to make another big mistake.

i liked turner a whole lot more.

[tdawg87]

Our 2nd round pick will most likely be a top 5 prospect (in our organization). While that's not saying a lot it's still a pretty big deal for an organization with such a poor farm system. Would 2 years of Bautista or Napoli be worth that? Would either of those guys put us over the top? 

Obviously other moves would have to be at work but it still doesn't make any sense. Our team in 2017 isn't any better with Bautista added and Calhoun or Cron subtracted. Maybe marginally at best. Unless some other team is willing to give up a MLB ready starter AND a couple top prospects for Calhoun or Cron, I just don't see it.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Our 2nd round pick will most likely be a top 5 prospect (in our organization). While that's not saying a lot it's still a pretty big deal for an organization with such a poor farm system. Would 2 years of Bautista or Napoli be worth that? Would either of those guys put us over the top? 

Obviously other moves would have to be at work but it still doesn't make any sense. Our team in 2017 isn't any better with Bautista added and Calhoun or Cron subtracted. Maybe marginally at best. Unless some other team is willing to give up a MLB ready starter AND a couple top prospects for Calhoun or Cron, I just don't see it.

This!!!

[totdprods]

I'd give some serious thought to Bautista replacing Cron in the line-up, primarily to the fact that Bautista still draws a ton of walks and has enough athleticism to to play a couple positions. Bautista gives you another lead-off option and enough raw power and presence in times when Albert is hurt. I wouldn't go past two years though. It would also greatly hinge on what trade value Cron has. 

Like I mentioned earlier, if you found a way to get a club to take Escobar and his contract along with Cron, then my interest would really go up. Pick up Bautista for 1B and Valbuena for 3B and you've set the team up nicely. But that's a very specific chain of events that would need to go down.