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Jon Heyman: Angels still eyeing free agent hitters


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My prediction is this season will be done in by the bullpen. There is not a single reliable guy down there outside of Bedrosian and I think it's gunna play out as it has so many times in recent history. The offense will be fine, the starters will be average, the defense will be fantastic but there's only so much you can do when the pen comes in and can't throw strikes or get crucial outs. So i think any money we have left to spend should be spent on a reliever or two to help shore up the pen

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So I generally agree with tdawg and others that signing Jose Bautista is a real long-shot simply because of our rebuilding status and payroll situation. However there is a point where if the price on Bautista drops enough the Angels would break even and/or see his signing as a value. The question is what is that price?

First you have to get an idea of what a #2 round pick is worth: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

That article is a guide based on Top 100 prospects using Baseball America's history of yearly prospect rankings as a guide. Realistically not a lot of #2 picks turn into Top 100 prospects later down the road. For the purposes of this discussion we will assume our #2 prospect is worth $10M in current value. Remember the prospect we pick at #2 is just as likely to flame out than turn into a viable Major League player, there is a lot of variability and some measure of luck involved in drafting. Let us also assume that Bautista would only replace Cron in our current 25-man roster I just do not see Kole Calhoun and his excellent defense and offensive ability traded that just seems too far fetched.

As we discussed in Part VI of the Primer, over Cron's career he has hit 119 wRC+ vs. RHP and has a pretty poor 91 wRC+ vs. LHP. Bautista has a career 131 wRC+ vs. LHP and 135 wRC+ vs. RHP although lately that has gone down slightly. Clearly Jose is a better hitter overall and also against LHP in particular so he would be an upgrade. The question really is for how long right?

FanGraphs projections see Bautista good for an approximate 2.7 WAR next season. Using the -0.5 WAR decline each year you'd see 2.2 in 2018, 1.7 in 2019, 1.2 in 2020, etc... Realistically you probably do not want to go more than three years total on him if you are considering signing him.

So what type of price would Bautista have to be at for the Angels to sign him on a 1-year, 2-year, or 3-year deal?

If you buy the 2.7 WAR projection (which isn't completely unreasonable) that is worth approximately $23M if you use 1 WAR = $8.5M. So basically if the Angels were to sign Jose anything more than about $13M is not worth it.

What about a 2 year deal? Assuming 2.7 and 2.2 WAR projections for 2017 and 2018 using 1 WAR = $8.5M in 2017 and the standard +10% per year inflation (approximately $9.4M in 2018) his total projected value is approximately $43.7M. Subtract out the #2 pick loss of $10M and Bautista's breakeven contract for the Angels becomes about 2 years and $33M or about $16.5M per season.

What about a 3-year deal? That would be 2.7, 2.2, and 1.7 WAR projections with the same base 2017 free agent dollar value with inflation. That would wind up being a little over $61.2M which would be about $51M over 3 years or about $17M per year.

Basically a one year deal is out of the question for us it doesn't make sense for the Angels nor does it make sense for Bautista. However a 2-year deal at $16M per year or a 3-year deal at about $50M total would potentially be a position the Angels might have interest in taking.

Of course the Angels only have about $17M left in Average Annual Value of payroll space so unless they unload Street's or Nolasco's contracts somewhere else this is probably a non-starter for us in the first place.

In other words it is a real long-shot and no one should hold their breath. Bautista would be great hitting behind Trout and/or Pujols and he knows how to take a walk too but financially, just like Turner, this will be a difficult one to pull off.

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Bautista is the opposite of what we need. We are just getting rid of hamilton and still have old man Pujols, why in the world would we sign a 36 year old for huge $ when his position isn't even near our biggest problem? If they sign him, I'll lose all faith in Eppler unless it's an insanely low amount of money and years.

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16 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

There's no way Bautista fits into the Angels plans. 

Sure there is. He's actually the quintessential Angel addition circa '04-'12. Likely to be overpaid vet with declining skills and name recognition. 
His offensive production should compare to Cron's over a couple year window, he can play the same position as Cron, he can (poorly) play a couple positions Cron can't, and he can fit in a wider spectrum of spots in the line-up than Cron. 

The question is if it's worth the difference in their salary, the loss of a draft pick, and what trade value Cron has, and if all those variables together are worth it. I don't think it's the route they will go or the best route, but it's not impossible to see a scenario where it could fit into their plans.

The Maldonado for Bandy and Santiago for Nolasco trades are actually comparable to Bautista for Cron. 
In both of those trades, Eppler dealt a more volatile player with higher upside and higher risk for an almost equivalent player with less upside but a far safer, more consistent mid-point. In both of those trades, Eppler got an additional piece (Meyer, Gagnon) as compensation for missing out on that player's upside.

So, if you think of it as trading Cron and a draft pick for Bautista and Cron's return, it's really not that divergent from what Eppler's done.

As it stands, Eppler has a lot to work on for next offseason. We will need to fill 3B, 2B, LF, UT IF, and 4th OF without much internally. I'm a little surprised he hasn't added anyone this offseason who had a little more control, simply for the fact that he is setting himself up to be needing to cover a lot again next year. Bautista's offensive advantage, and slight positional versatility, over Cron eases a bit of that pressure for next season too.

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There's definite risk, but Rasmus/Saunders (don't forget Revere) could come fairly cheaply, maybe even at a cost comparable to what Calhoun will be making in the near future. if Kole lands you a legitimate young SP with some MLB success, or a very good MLB-ready AAA SP prospect, I think it needs to be considered. 

For those thinking "Well, why doesn't that team just sign Rasmus/Saunders then?" just realize that they'd be asking the same questions we are. Kole's proven to be far more consistent than either of those two, but it's not unreasonable that either Rasmus or Saunders could put up similar production to Kole when performing at their best. A team with lowered 2017 expectations like the Angels may be willing to take that gamble. A team with a shot at winning their division, like the Giants, may opt to go for the safer route with Kole. 

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Kole Calhoun '13 thru '16: 501 games
.267/.329/.438/.768, 115 OPS+, 11.1 WAR

Colby Rasmus '13 thru '16: 466 games
.238/.308/.448/.756, 107 OPS+, 10.6 WAR

Michael Saunders '13 thru '16: 359 games
.250/.332/.436/.768, 112 OPS+, 4.8 WAR

Numbers from that timespan averaged out over 162 games:
162 G, 131 H, 30 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB, 65 BB, 156 K - Saunders
162 G, 130 H, 28 2B, 4 3B, 28 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB, 55 BB, 186 K - Rasmus
162 G, 128 H, 32 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 81 RBI, 5 SB, 56 K, 138 K - Calhoun

The three of them are remarkably similar. Calhoun's a bit younger and has a couple years of control, which boosts his value significantly over Saunders and Rasmus. 
Saunders has had a lot of issues staying healthy, and Rasmus hasn't been the model of durability either, while Calhoun has. 
Rasmus brings more power and strong defense, but a lot more K's and lower average.
Saunders brings better plate discipline and arguably has the most power potential, but has significant durability and consistency issues. 

Being that Kole has so much more value due to his consistency and control, I could see where a contending team with a need in OF may be willing to part with a good young SP for him instead of taking on the risk of an older LF, and I could see the Angels taking that gamble based on the potential of the SP they'd acquire for Kole. If presented with a strong offer for Kole, I think I'd take Saunders over Rasmus as a Kole replacement. And keep in mind, we still have Revere and possibly Marte to play with in the corners too.

So, if you were offered someone like Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, or even Hunter Harvey or Luke Weaver, for Calhoun, would you do it if you signed one of those above?
 

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I doubt Heyman has any info at all on the Angels lurking on any significant names.  It's all about promoting himself.  Lots of baseball information people use all the same tricks for clicks.  In that sense, Heyman is no different.  But in one sense Heyman is different.  He is actually a complete jerk, fueled by his own uppity attitude and self-righteousness.

But the bottom line is speculating a big name being connected to a big market team "hauls in" a pretty good number of clicks.  I can't see the Angels signing Bautista for any number that is believable, so I say there is no story here (other than noticing an obvious case of Heyman executing click food). 

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On a team with so many uncertainties, parting with one of the few sure things seems counter-productive.   

Tots I mean no disrespect but your Calhoun/Rasmus comp isn't really as close as the numbers would make it seem and it really isn't indicative of the types of players they have been.  Rasmus 2013 is so far above everything he's done it masks his overall weaker performances since then and that season's numbers were impacted by his home park -- he had a .200 OPS swing home and away.  It's also worth noting that Calhoun's 2013 amounted to 58 games -- he didn't become a regular until 2014.  Also, while he's not been the injury magnet that Saunders has, Rasmus has struggled to stay on the field -- topping 118 games all of once since 2013 and never as many as 500 PAs..  When you average out the numbers to 162 games it masks those realities -- but they still exist.   On the surface they might seem similar, but theory isn't practice and in practice Calhoun has been the model of consistency where the others are all over the effing place.   There is a lot of volatility with Rasmus that just doesn't exist with Calhoun.  

 

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27 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

On a team with so many uncertainties, parting with one of the few sure things seems counter-productive.   

Tots I mean no disrespect but your Calhoun/Rasmus comp isn't really as close as the numbers would make it seem and it really isn't indicative of the types of players they have been.  Rasmus 2013 is so far above everything he's done it masks his overall weaker performances since then and that season's numbers were impacted by his home park -- he had a .200 OPS swing home and away.  It's also worth noting that Calhoun's 2013 amounted to 58 games -- he didn't become a regular until 2014.  Also, while he's not been the injury magnet that Saunders has, Rasmus has struggled to stay on the field -- topping 118 games all of once since 2013 and never as many as 500 PAs..  When you average out the numbers to 162 games it masks those realities -- but they still exist.   On the surface they might seem similar, but theory isn't practice and in practice Calhoun has been the model of consistency where the others are all over the effing place.   There is a lot of volatility with Rasmus that just doesn't exist with Calhoun.  

That was the entire point of my post. Calhoun draws immense value due to his ability to stay on the field and perform consistently, and due to the fact he has a couple years of control remaining. That post was intended as an addendum to theoretical question about why a contending team would want to part with a good, young SP for Calhoun rather than signing Rasmus or Saunders.

I agree that Heyman is just click-baiting and don't think there is any fire to this smoke, just speculating on what could happen in the event there is truth to this. The Angels need pitching. Particularly good, young, cheap pitching. Calhoun could probably get that for you, and there are two players available in FA, in a market that is cratering, who, at their peak, can turn in a Kole Calhoun-level year. Obviously, both Saunders and Rasmus have extreme concerns due to both injuries, park factors, platoon splits, and I made note of that as well. 

Rasmus is actually a pretty good bounce-back candidate. He still offers very good defense, he had an abnormally low Babip last season (.257) which is almost exactly the same Babip he put up in '12, his last sub .700 OPS season. What scares me most about him is he dealt with core/oblique surgeries last year. Sound familiar? Same stuff that Cory Rasmus has been battling. Those brothers have some serious durability issues. 

OPS+ accounts for park adjustments. 
Calhoun's last three full seasons, '14-'16, he posted OPS+ of 123, 104, and 117 over 1,900 plate appearances. 
Rasmus last three full seasons, '13-'15, he posted an OPS + of 127, 105, and 116 over 1,300 plate appearances. 
Hard to get more identical than that. Yes, Rasmus had fewer appearances. Noted that frequently. 

Saunders has had even more health issues, but he's also shown quite a bit more promise at times than Rasmus, and he's put up some good numbers already in the AL West, playing in a pitchers park. 

Ben Revere was brought in as a safety net for Maybin struggling, but what's to say he couldn't do the same for Rasmus/Saunders?

It all comes down to what type of SP you can get for Kole, really. 
Kole was pretty damn average in 2015. .250 BA and a .300 OBP isn't very exciting. His K's went way up, his power and OBP dropped, but it was masked because he hit 26 HRs and won a Gold Glove. He rebounded nicely last season, but he has some warts too. 

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8 hours ago, totdprods said:

Sure there is. He's actually the quintessential Angel addition circa '04-'12. Likely to be overpaid vet with declining skills and name recognition. 
His offensive production should compare to Cron's over a couple year window, he can play the same position as Cron, he can (poorly) play a couple positions Cron can't, and he can fit in a wider spectrum of spots in the line-up than Cron. 

The question is if it's worth the difference in their salary, the loss of a draft pick, and what trade value Cron has, and if all those variables together are worth it. I don't think it's the route they will go or the best route, but it's not impossible to see a scenario where it could fit into their plans.

The Maldonado for Bandy and Santiago for Nolasco trades are actually comparable to Bautista for Cron. 
In both of those trades, Eppler dealt a more volatile player with higher upside and higher risk for an almost equivalent player with less upside but a far safer, more consistent mid-point. In both of those trades, Eppler got an additional piece (Meyer, Gagnon) as compensation for missing out on that player's upside.

So, if you think of it as trading Cron and a draft pick for Bautista and Cron's return, it's really not that divergent from what Eppler's done.

As it stands, Eppler has a lot to work on for next offseason. We will need to fill 3B, 2B, LF, UT IF, and 4th OF without much internally. I'm a little surprised he hasn't added anyone this offseason who had a little more control, simply for the fact that he is setting himself up to be needing to cover a lot again next year. Bautista's offensive advantage, and slight positional versatility, over Cron eases a bit of that pressure for next season too.

Well Bautista fits into the "we need to win this season" impatient plan. After that we can all sit and watch him fade into oblivion with Albert for the next couple of seasons. How desperate are we to have a need for another 36 year old player. He looked very overmatched in the ALCS last season. 

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I think @totdprods has lost his mind in this rain soaked holiday break. The lack of real movement of free agents has him creating completely unrealistic comparisons between trades and blowing money on Bautista in decline  while losing a 2nd round draft pick. Someone please check to make sure there isn't a constant drop over his computer,  splashing his head and slowly driving him crazy. 

Bautista would be disastrous. 

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1 minute ago, Blarg said:

I think @totdprods has lost his mind in this rain soaked holiday break. The lack of real movement of free agents has him creating completely unrealistic comparisons between trades and blowing money on Bautista in decline  while losing a 2nd round draft pick. Someone please check to make sure there isn't a constant drop over his computer,  splashing his head and slowly driving him crazy. 

Bautista would be disastrous. 

75* and sunny...

Y'all jump to conclusions too quick... I'm not advocating for Bautista at all. I think Cron is going to blossom into a .285/25/100 guy next year for super cheap and then get moved in a year or two when his value is at a maximum, when Thaiss or Marte are ready to step in full time.

Am I bored? Absolutely. But it's a lot more fun thinking of why Eppler would do any of these things and trying to understand what they may see. As I've also mentioned, Eppler also operates in total silence and there's basically no head's up in regards to any move he ever makes, so if it's being murmured that the Angels are looking at Bautista or FA hitters, it probably means the opposite.

Just trying to think of a way he would fit in the event there was truth to this.

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I mentioned elsewhere how much I think Cespedes instead of Maybin in left would have been good (especially in the context of not punting 2017), but that is hindsight.

In foresight, I am honestly still pretty worried about 3B, 2B, and catcher.  I am fearful that with even just a small amount of bad luck, the Angels are going to have literally three black holes in the lineup that end up with a cumulative negative WAR.  And imagine if Simmons offensively reverts.  Am I going to be able to sit through 3 and a half hour games when inside the margin of error is possibly having 4 spots in the offensive lineup that can't produce?

 

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2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I mentioned elsewhere how much I think Cespedes instead of Maybin in left would have been good (especially in the context of not punting 2017), but that is hindsight.

In foresight, I am honestly still pretty worried about 3B, 2B, and catcher.  I am fearful that with even just a small amount of bad luck, the Angels are going to have literally three black holes in the lineup that end up with a cumulative negative WAR.  And imagine if Simmons offensively reverts.  Am I going to be able to sit through 3 and a half hour games when inside the margin of error is possibly having 4 spots in the offensive lineup that can't produce?

I think we will be alright this year but I'm real interested to see what Eppler has in mind for all those holes next offseason. 

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44 minutes ago, totdprods said:

OPS+ accounts for park adjustments. 

I was aiming that more towards your usage of the counting stats in the 162 comparison.  Rates will be the same regardless of 100 games played or 400 games played.  I realize I pointed out the difference in OPS, but it was the easiest number to use in order to illustrate how the park may have helped him.  

44 minutes ago, totdprods said:


Rasmus is actually a pretty good bounce-back candidate. 

And he's just as good a candidate to fall flat on his face and tank.   He followed up a 132 OPS+ season with an 88 and an 86 season in his past -- He's anything but a sure bet to go in any one direction and there is more risk there than the numbers over 162 or his rates might indicate.   He could break out, he could bust...  My argument is that this team can't afford that sort of volatility if it really believes it can compete beyond April.  Maybe the question should be whether it should bother or just aim towards 2018 now.

Anyway...  If you're talking about adding a Rasmus/Saunders to what we already have -- great.  If you're talking about replacing Calhoun with either one of those guys -- that's a different story.   I understand it's all relative to what the Angels could get for Calhoun, just pointing out that your comparison glosses over a lot of real volatility.

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18 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I think @totdprods has lost his mind in this rain soaked holiday break. The lack of real movement of free agents has him creating completely unrealistic comparisons between trades and blowing money on Bautista in decline  while losing a 2nd round draft pick. Someone please check to make sure there isn't a constant drop over his computer,  splashing his head and slowly driving him crazy. 

Bautista would be disastrous. 

I agree Blarg that it is very unlikely but we are entering that time of year where prices on players start dropping and there is a hypothetical (and to be clear I'm talking generalities here) point where if a player's price falls far enough it does become reasonable and acceptable.

There is an opportunity cost that would be right for the Angels but that cost for Bautista is unlikely to materialize making this whole conversation about signing him pretty much a moot point.

Jose on a 1-year or 2-year deal wouldn't be disastrous in my mind it is the price we'd have to pay that could be disastrous.

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24 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I was aiming that more towards your usage of the counting stats in the 162 comparison -- which, are in fact skewed by one season.  Rates will be the same regardless of 100 games played or 400 games played.  I realize I pointed out the difference in OPS, but it was the easiest number to use in order to illustrate how the park may have helped him.  

And he's just as good a candidate to fall flat on his face and tank.   He followed up a 132 OPS+ season with an 88 and an 86 season in his past -- He's anything but a sure bet to go in any one direction and there is more risk there than the numbers over 162 or his rates might indicate.   He could break out, he could bust...  My argument is that this team can't afford that sort of volatility if it really believes it can compete beyond April.  Maybe the question should be whether it should bother or just aim towards 2018 now.

Anyway...  If you're talking about adding a Rasmus/Saunders to what we already have -- great.  If you're talking about replacing Calhoun with either one of those guys -- that's a different story.   I understand it's all relative to what the Angels could get for Calhoun, just pointing out that your comparison glosses over a lot of real volatility.

It's a total gamble and I acknowledge that. Not sure why the fixation is on the outfielder comparisons, as it is secondary to the whole purpose of this. This is like the Angels signing an all-star catcher and everyone immediately getting excited about who should be the back-up UT IF...

The main thing I'm wanting to discuss is swapping Kole for an equatable SP. The outfielder is just the following move brought in with a hope and a prayer they produce one of their good years and we don't miss a step. It's completely secondary.

What kind of SP could Kole bring in? What's realistic? No one seems to even want to talk about it, and that's why I bring it up.
The idea of slotting someone like Robbie Ray or Matt Moore or Luke Weaver (tried to throw an intentional spectrum of options there) into the #5 spot and bumping Chavez to the pen is absolutly worth considering the downgrade from Calhoun to Rasmus/Saunders.

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11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It's a total gamble and I acknowledge that. Not sure why the fixation is on the outfielder comparisons, as it is secondary to the whole purpose of this. This is like the Angels signing an all-star catcher and everyone immediately getting excited about who should be the back-up...

The main thing I'm wanting to discuss is swapping Kole for an equatable SP. The outfielder is just the following move brought in with a hope and a prayer they produce one of their good years and we don't miss a step.

What kind of SP could Kole bring in? What's realistic? No one seems to even want to talk about it, and that's why I bring it up.

Personally trading Kole makes little sense to me. You will create a hole to fill a transitional need for 2017 that can be more appropriately filled by a back-end starter rather than a front-end one. Next year we will have (hopefully) two more starters returning, one of which is a front-end type (Heaney) and the other a back-end one (Tropeano). Richards, Shoemaker, and Skaggs are all in various stages of recovery from injuries which has baked-in risk attached but all three of them have the capability and/or potential to be front-end types. Although it would be great to have a front-end starter it just strikes me as much more of a want than a need this year and beyond.

The team can always use more pitching but this whole idea seems counter-productive to me tot so that is why I think I (and some others here) simply believe this is a complete non-starter for 2017.

One thing I will say is that the Angels really need to address Calhoun's escalating Super Two salary after this season. If the Angels do not extend Kole or at least buy out his remaining arbitration time it could impact payroll so much that they may consider moving him before 2018 or 2019 (his final season). Personally I believe they will buy out his arbitration years and maybe one or two additional seasons if they can swing it but I could certainly be wrong.

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@ettinI can see how it would be seen as counter-productive, but I can see how a lot of Eppler's moves this offseason were very ambiguous. He did not take much risk, but he didn't hesitate to make moves or improve the team. They didn't really scream 'win now' or 'sell now'. He very much toed the middle. Which I completely agree with and I'm very content with the offseason so far. A Calhoun trade in my mind falls into that same territory.

Adam Eaton brought back two Top 50 prospects and a 2016 1st round pick. I'm not even going to begin to compare Eaton to Calhoun - I scoffed about that in the other thread that was created about it - but I don't think it's unfair to say Calhoun could be worth Eaton-lite on the market. One of Eaton's most valuable aspects was his contract situation, and while Calhoun's isn't nearly as favorable, he's still got a very attractive contract, particularly if you're one of the Top 15 teams in the league with a tight payroll situation in the near-term and a clear window to win. 

So, based off Eaton's haul - two of the Top 10 RHP prospects, both are MLB-ready and a '16 1st round pick - I'd like to think Kole Calhoun would get you one very good SP prospect. Luke Weaver, Tyler Beede, Archie Bradley. Any of those guys could step into the rotation at #5 and likely give you back of the rotation production in '17. Some of them project to be much more than that. 

It's not at all what I would have set out to do this offseason but as you mentioned, it's about being opportunistic. At the start of the offseason, I wouldn't have touched Rasmus or Saunders with a ten-foot pole. I thought Saunders would still get ridiculous money. But we've seen contracts go the exact opposite direction, and we've already brought in a 4th OF with good everyday potential. We've seen an enhanced Kole Calhoun OF bring in a ridiculous haul. And now we've heard a murmur the Angels are still looking at available FA hitters with a mention of dealing an OF (and I've also noted that Eppler is usually dead silent through the media) so I don't think it is the craziest notion. Given the price of pitching, it is still generally easier to acquire a good OF than it is a good SP. Bringing back a stud SP prospect now could save them immense resources in the next couple of years. They may even wind up with a crazy surplus of SP again, which is enviable given then the cost of pitching. Roll the dice on a bargain contract for a Rasmus or Saunders this year. Hope Skaggs, Shoe, Richards, whomever we acquire shine this year, and go into next offseason with a dearth of good affordable SP available with Heaney and Trop returning and see if someone offers you a mint instead of going the FA route. Or sign a filler OF again next year.

This may be Eppler's best chance at getting maximum value for Kole and snagging a bargain OF who could come close to replacing him on a bottom-dollar deal.

 

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