Cowart

[Cdaniel]

I haven't been able to watch a ton of games, how does he look?  The few at bats I've seen he has hit the ball hard just right at guys.

[totdprods]

Swinging at everything but making good contact. Defense has looked good and he's looked comfortable at the plate, but he's probably reaching a point where he needs to go into his at-bats with a better approach before pitchers start exploiting him. 

[eaterfan]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Swinging at everything but making good contact. Defense has looked good and he's looked comfortable at the plate, but he's probably reaching a point where he needs to go into his at-bats with a better approach before pitchers start exploiting him. 

I disagree with a lot of this. I agree that he's looked more comfortable at the plate but in the last week or so his approach has improved. I think a lot of the problem is that he still has a bit of a long swing. I don't usually notice something like that but I've seen him missing (or fouling off) a lot of good pitches he's swung at because he's a tick behind. I wouldn't give up on him yet.

[totdprods]

I'm not giving up on him either, just noting that he hasn't drawn a walk yet and is averaging only a hair over 3 pitches per at-bat. He's going up there swinging and that could turn ugly real fast if pitchers start to adjust and he doesn't.

[Second Base]

Cowart is a 24 year old that hit .280 in AAA. Yes, he's athletic, and yes he's a great defender. But other than that, you aren't going to get much else. Cowart should hit .250 in the majors, but he won't be hitting more than 10 HR in a season.

But still, .250 with 40 XBH and good defense still makes him a 2-win player.

But that value needs to be allocated correctly. We need a lead off hitter, and without Escobar or his offensive equivalent, this lineup just doesn't produce, we've seen that.

Our best move really is shifting Escobar to 2B.

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

We need a lead off hitter, and without Escobar or his offensive equivalent, this lineup just doesn't produce, we've seen that.

Actually, the offense has been pretty good the last 2 weeks without him...Kind of surprising....

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Escobar is a singles hitter with poor base running skills, and poor defense.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Escobar is a singles hitter with poor base running skills, and poor defense.

While it's nice having his .370 obp at the leadoff spot, he pretty much does everything else poorly.  No power.  Bad defense.  No Speed.  Bad base running.  Mental lapses.  Not saying he's a bad player, but that he's just not as good as people give him credit for because there has been such a dearth of 3bman for the halos over the last several years.  

But obviously , other teams know this which is why his trade value probably isn't as high as some would hope.  The Giants gave up a former top 100 prospect for Nunez and I'd comp Escobar similarly.  If we could get a 23 yo SP with almost 8k/9 and a minor league era of 3.29, you'd have to consider it.  You'd have to spend a little to replace him, but Prado is a FA at season's end, and he's better as well as a year younger.  Or the other option is you throw Marte at 3b, Cowart at 2b and go get a LFer.  Just sayin' he could be a means to obtaining a young controlled pitcher if you get the right team on the hook.  

[Second Base]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

While it's nice having his .370 obp at the leadoff spot, he pretty much does everything else poorly.  No power.  Bad defense.  No Speed.  Bad base running.  Mental lapses.  Not saying he's a bad player, but that he's just not as good as people give him credit for because there has been such a dearth of 3bman for the halos over the last several years.  

But obviously , other teams know this which is why his trade value probably isn't as high as some would hope.  The Giants gave up a former top 100 prospect for Nunez and I'd comp Escobar similarly.  If we could get a 23 yo SP with almost 8k/9 and a minor league era of 3.29, you'd have to consider it.  You'd have to spend a little to replace him, but Prado is a FA at season's end, and he's better as well as a year younger.  Or the other option is you throw Marte at 3b, Cowart at 2b and go get a LFer.  Just sayin' he could be a means to obtaining a young controlled pitcher if you get the right team on the hook.  

With money coming off the books, as well as pay increases and upcoming free agents that need to be re-signed, I'm looking at this offseason like we can spend 10-15 million and still be ok (this is largely based off the fact that Moreno won't increase payroll and won't go over the luxury tax).

Our needs are at 2B, LF and maybe RP. The rotation seems stable with Richards, Skaggs, Shoe, Nolasco and Meyer along with Smith, Banuelos, McGowin, O'Grady, Scribner, Kipper and Long in AA/AAA. I'm not saying they're all quality options, I'm just saying we can get through the season. 

In relief I'm looking at Street, Bedrock, Valdez, Bailey, Guerra, Ramirez, Morin, Middleton, Alcantara, Adams, Rhoades, Jewell and Wesely as depth in AA and beyond. That's decent. 

So if we're to solve LF and 2B on 10-15 million, we need to conserve where possible. We shouldn't create a need by trading a 3B and thus creating another need.

I really like Prado though, and would love to see him at 2B, 3B or even LF.

[totdprods]

Prado, Jay, and one more innings-eating SP are my ideal, realistic FA targets. 

I look at Meyer, Oberholtzer, and Banuelos as one three-headed monster. All three of those guys have so much risk associated with them, I would be surprised if more than one would even wind up a serviceable starter. I can't bring myself to pencil them all in separately on the SP depth chart though. Richards and Smith both have elbows already aching, so I go into 2017 expecting one of them to miss some time as well. We need to bring in at least one more SP into the fold, I think.

I also believe Weaver will have a standing offer to return, and at this point, it seems likely.

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

I really like Prado though, and would love to see him at 2B, 3B or even LF.

He's my number one choice for FA signing. He'd offer up enough flexibility that we could still toy around with Cowart and Marte at 2B, LF, and 3B and see where they best slot in.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Prado, Jay, and one more innings-eating SP are my ideal, realistic FA targets. 

I look at Meyer, Oberholtzer, and Banuelos as one three-headed monster. All three of those guys have so much risk associated with them, I would be surprised if more than one would even wind up a serviceable starter. I can't bring myself to pencil them all in separately on the SP depth chart though. Richards and Smith both have elbows already aching, so I go into 2017 expecting one of them to miss some time as well. We need to bring in at least one more SP into the fold, I think.

I also believe Weaver will have a standing offer to return, and at this point, it seems likely.

Weaver posting an ERA over 5 at age 34, making millions of dollars versus Oberholtzer/Banuelos/Smith/O'Grady posting an ERA over 5 at age 25ish making the league minimum....

Our GM would have to be the dumbest executive alive to being Jered Weaver back on anything more than a minor league contract or even a transition to the pen as a RH specialist. If Jered Weaver is a starting pitcher for the Angels next year, then multiple people need to lose their job.

[Angel Oracle]

Cotton has tied Cowart up in knots today.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Weaver posting an ERA over 5 at age 34, making millions of dollars versus Oberholtzer/Banuelos/Smith/O'Grady posting an ERA over 5 at age 25ish making the league minimum....

Our GM would have to be the dumbest executive alive to being Jered Weaver back on anything more than a minor league contract or even a transition to the pen as a RH specialist. If Jered Weaver is a starting pitcher for the Angels next year, then multiple people need to lose their job.

For the record, I'd be totally fine going into '17 without Weaver - by no means am I clamoring for him to be resigned, but I do think we need one more proven SP for next year and next year only just for the sake of eating up innings. Someone to give the young starters some breathing room to grow (and be shuttled to SLC if need be for a reset) and even more importantly, to keep us from working our young pen arms to death before we get back to a competitive level. Weaver is still capable of spinning 6 solid innings here and there. I'm not buying into it much, but his numbers and velocity have been improved recently. 

Who on the free agent market is likely to sign on a cheap, one-year deal on a hometown discount? Weaver is about the only option. 
Sure, there are other pitchers who will sign one-year deals, but virtually any FA pitcher on the open market who signs only a one year deal is doing so because they're coming off major injury. 
I like guys like Nova, Hellickson, and Fister, but none of them are going to sign for 1 year, and all will cost significantly more than Weaver will ask. 

We started the season with 8 MLB-caliber starting pitchers, and of those, Weaver is literally the last one standing now. 
Given the tremendous injury history between Meyer, Banuelos and concerns over Richards, Smith, and possibly Shoemaker, it would be beyond reckless to go into '17 leaning on the guys you mentioned to handle a bulk of the starts. It would be irresponsible - for their health and the health of the pen. 

2017 will be about working to develop the arms you've mentioned to give us a deep pool of pitching talent in 2018. Those guys will best be developed by having the flexibility to rest them when they're hurting, or to boot them to the pen or Salt Lake for a couple weeks to work on things. There's no reason to place a crazy workload or expectation on any of them next year. For those reasons, Weaver offers the cheapest, most durable, homegrown choice, and that's not counting the leadership he brings to the team.






 

[totdprods]

0-3 with 3 K's on  a total of 11 pitches, 7 of which he swung through or fouled off. 
His line is now at .237/.246/.339/.585. Struck out 18 times in 59 ABs.

As I said, he needs to start making adjustments otherwise pitchers are gonna catch on to the fact that he's swinging at everything.
Still hope he can lock down second base next year, but I'd like to see him try working the count more.

[Oz27]

15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

For the record, I'd be totally fine going into '17 without Weaver - by no means am I clamoring for him to be resigned, but I do think we need one more proven SP for next year and next year only just for the sake of eating up innings. Someone to give the young starters some breathing room to grow (and be shuttled to SLC if need be for a reset) and even more importantly, to keep us from working our young pen arms to death before we get back to a competitive level. Weaver is still capable of spinning 6 solid innings here and there. I'm not buying into it much, but his numbers and velocity have been improved recently. 

Who on the free agent market is likely to sign on a cheap, one-year deal on a hometown discount? Weaver is about the only option. 
Sure, there are other pitchers who will sign one-year deals, but virtually any FA pitcher on the open market who signs only a one year deal is doing so because they're coming off major injury. 
I like guys like Nova, Hellickson, and Fister, but none of them are going to sign for 1 year, and all will cost significantly more than Weaver will ask. 

We started the season with 8 MLB-caliber starting pitchers, and of those, Weaver is literally the last one standing now. 
Given the tremendous injury history between Meyer, Banuelos and concerns over Richards, Smith, and possibly Shoemaker, it would be beyond reckless to go into '17 leaning on the guys you mentioned to handle a bulk of the starts. It would be irresponsible - for their health and the health of the pen. 

2017 will be about working to develop the arms you've mentioned to give us a deep pool of pitching talent in 2018. Those guys will best be developed by having the flexibility to rest them when they're hurting, or to boot them to the pen or Salt Lake for a couple weeks to work on things. There's no reason to place a crazy workload or expectation on any of them next year. For those reasons, Weaver offers the cheapest, most durable, homegrown choice, and that's not counting the leadership he brings to the team.






 

Weaver has the worst xFIP in the league and the second worst FIP. But even that doesn't do it justice. Since 2008 only three pitchers to log 120 innings have had a worse FIP. They were 2010 Scott Kazmir (remember that?), 2015 Kyle Kendrick (who has lagged in AAA all year) and 2016 James Shields.  Baseball Prospectus, whose Deserved Run Average model for WARP is a pretty strong indicator of future performance, puts Weaver at worse than -5 WARP this season. He is one of the worst starting pitchers in recent times, which sounds like it should be an exaggeration but really isn't. Finding better production than the sub replacement level performance he has delivered is not hard to find, even on a small budget. It would be absolute madness to give Weaver anything more than a minor league contract and even that seems like more than can be justified.

[DMVol]

Needs to show more at the plate....got off to a good start but he's flattened out some...

[Angelsjunky]

I have no objection to Weaver getting a one-year extension at a low price, if he understands that he may not have a spot in the rotation. As of now, the possible starters are as follows:

Out for all/most of 2017: Heaney, Tropeano

Questionable: Richards, Shoemaker, Smith

Supposedly good to go: Nolasco, Skaggs, Meyer, Banuelos, Oberholtzer

Probably not ready/good enough: Long, McGowin, etc

We don't know if Richards arm will be OK. We don't know if Shoemaker will be OK. Meyer, Banny, and Ober are all big question marks. We still don't know what we have in Skaggs. It is scary to think that Nolasco is the most stable member of the 2017 rotation.

Now while I agree with Scotty that it probably serves the long-term of the club more to give those guys a spot in the rotation and let them struggle to find their form to see who might be part of the 2018 and beyond club, and Weaver is just wasting innings, I think with all those question marks Weaver wouldn't be a bad option to have - as long as he understands that if people are healthy and/or pitching well, he's the odd-man out and will be mopping up out of the bullpen. If he's OK with that, why not give him a last go around?

[totdprods]

I think we've also seen that Eppler is a lot quicker to pull the plug than Dipoto and Reagins. If Weaver came back next year, kept sucking at this rate, and there were better options, he'd likely get the ARod exit where he got a chance to exit on his terms. I highly doubt he's going to ask for much money, and think he is pretty close to choosing to retire anyway, so I don't think he would put up much fight next May if that's where we're at.

Overall, I just don't see enough stability or veteran durability with what we have to write off all consideration of him at least opening the season in the rotation. Look what we had to do this year with Lincecum and Chacin. Do we want to risk having to dig deeper than that next year? Just because the thought of Weaver throwing 10 more starts is that unfathomable? 
 

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Weaver posting an ERA over 5 at age 34, making millions of dollars versus Oberholtzer/Banuelos/Smith/O'Grady posting an ERA over 5 at age 25ish making the league minimum....

Our GM would have to be the dumbest executive alive to being Jered Weaver back on anything more than a minor league contract or even a transition to the pen as a RH specialist. If Jered Weaver is a starting pitcher for the Angels next year, then multiple people need to lose their job.

What if Arte insists he gets signed.  Should people lose their jobs?

[Angels#1Fan]

36 minutes ago, totdprods said:

0-3 with 3 K's on  a total of 11 pitches, 7 of which he swung through or fouled off. 
His line is now at .237/.246/.339/.585. Struck out 18 times in 59 ABs.

As I said, he needs to start making adjustments otherwise pitchers are gonna catch on to the fact that he's swinging at everything.
Still hope he can lock down second base next year, but I'd like to see him try working the count more.

In another thread I said that I just don't see what others do in Cowart. Yeah he has a good glove but that's it.

Hope he proves me wrong but I can't see counting on him for anything at this point and I certainly wouldn't just hand him the second or third base job.

It would be nice to have a glove like his in the line-up but I think people are just wishing/hoping he can hit.

[halomatt]

4 hours ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Weaver posting an ERA over 5 at age 34, making millions of dollars versus Oberholtzer/Banuelos/Smith/O'Grady posting an ERA over 5 at age 25ish making the league minimum....

Our GM would have to be the dumbest executive alive to being Jered Weaver back on anything more than a minor league contract or even a transition to the pen as a RH specialist. If Jered Weaver is a starting pitcher for the Angels next year, then multiple people need to lose their job.

This is an obvious fact.  However, knowing what little we do know of this organization, it would not surprise me in the least if they offered him a contract.  As always, it's whatever Scioscia wants. 

[Second Base]

44 minutes ago, stormngt said:

What if Arte insists he gets signed.  Should people lose their jobs?

No one other than Arte. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I have no objection to Weaver getting a one-year extension at a low price, if he understands that he may not have a spot in the rotation. As of now, the possible starters are as follows:

Out for all/most of 2017: Heaney, Tropeano

Questionable: Richards, Shoemaker, Smith

Supposedly good to go: Nolasco, Skaggs, Meyer, Banuelos, Oberholtzer

Probably not ready/good enough: Long, McGowin, etc

We don't know if Richards arm will be OK. We don't know if Shoemaker will be OK. Meyer, Banny, and Ober are all big question marks. We still don't know what we have in Skaggs. It is scary to think that Nolasco is the most stable member of the 2017 rotation.

Now while I agree with Scotty that it probably serves the long-term of the club more to give those guys a spot in the rotation and let them struggle to find their form to see who might be part of the 2018 and beyond club, and Weaver is just wasting innings, I think with all those question marks Weaver wouldn't be a bad option to have - as long as he understands that if people are healthy and/or pitching well, he's the odd-man out and will be mopping up out of the bullpen. If he's OK with that, why not give him a last go around?

I'd much rather sit and watch a random AA or AAA starter navigate a lineup at the league minimum and make adjustments over watching Weav get shelled and give everyone the mean face for another 5 million+.

[ScottT]

I object to Weaver coming back as a player.

C'mon, mang.