Cowart

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

If he had performed as he did in 2015 over 600 PAs (a full season) and his 3.2 WAR season would be 5.4 WAR. Not saying that is who he really is or that he will ever do that again, but his performance that year was very good. Anyway, 3-4 win players make all star teams all the time.

All Star voting by the fans is a popularity contest, anyone can make the team. You say this is a down year, but what if last year was a career year and this is an average year. I guess we will know more next year. 

[ABC]

[Oz27]

12 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

All Star voting by the fans is a popularity contest, anyone can make the team. You say this is a down year, but what if last year was a career year and this is an average year. I guess we will know more next year. 

I don't disagree with any of that and as Doc said, this is getting down to semantics. My point really is just that he is still pretty damn valuable this year and has shown there is a possibility of him performing better than this in the future.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I don't disagree with any of that and as Doc said, this is getting down to semantics. My point really is just that he is still pretty damn valuable this year and has shown there is a possibility of him performing better than this in the future.

why does he miss so many games? He's missed a total of 133 games in only 2 seasons.

[ABC]

Cowart has been an udder disappointment.  

[Angel Oracle]

Grichuk would look like an All-Star next to the countless others playing LF these past two seasons, aside from Marte who may be better suited for 3B anyway.

[Slegnaac]

On 9/27/2016 at 3:38 PM, Oz27 said:

A run is a run, whether it's on the offensive or defensive side. Escobar's offensive value is a mere nine runs above average and as an overall player is two runs below average. Clearly Cowart isn't going to be nine runs above average offensively, in fact he would likely be below average, but give him a full season of play and I could see him overall being worth within five or so runs of Escobar (so about -7, which would put him a little over 1 WAR).

I agree that "a run is a run" but offensively a player is guaranteed that opportunity 3 to 4 times a game.  The opportunity to save runs is surely less. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

I think there is a good chance Grichuk is what he is. However, he's still young, so there is also a chance he could get better. No one really knows, but I like him.

He's a solid player who can get you 2-3 WAR a year right now. A low OBP guy with power and good defense. I'd love to have him on our team.

Look what happened to Cron this year. OBP up to .329, which is good for Cron's standards. If Grichuk can post an OBP like that (which he has before) with his power and defense, you have a really good ball player.

Yeah I agree with everything you said, the thing is every thing I've read on these message boards over the last couple of years make him sound like his is another Ken Griffey Jr. Undoubtedly he is head and shoulders better than anything we have put in LF over the last few years. The thing is it wouldn't take much to be better than our present and past LFers.

[Angel Oracle]

As I asked before, what has changed from back when a player on a last place team could win the award (see Andre Dawson, 1987 Cubs)?    And the Halos won't even finish last.

[arch stanton]

I think what people actually touted Grichuk as was a Trumbo with a glove who is still pre-arb. Something to think about when you're watching Marte butcher a flyball or Buss/Robinson/Choi/etc butcher an at bat.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

As I asked before, what has changed from back when a player on a last place team could win the award (see Andre Dawson, 1987 Cubs)?    And the Halos won't even finish last.

Far less games televised back in '87, but every game for the Cubs was on TV and basic cable. Also remember how Dawson's contract was touted when he signed with the Cubs?  He basically was said to have signed a blank one year deal and told the Cubs to write in his salary, he just wanted to play there.  

[Oz27]

4 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

I agree that "a run is a run" but offensively a player is guaranteed that opportunity 3 to 4 times a game.  The opportunity to save runs is surely less. 

That is true. It is impossible to be a 7-8 win player based on defense alone whereas it is possible based on just offense. According to Fangraphs, the highest defensive runs above average this year is 27.6 whereas the highest offensive runs above average is 67.8. I think there are defensive players actually worth a lot more than that because the Fangraphs numbers don't include catcher framing and the evidence shows guys like Grandal and Posey are worth 25-30 runs a season in pitch framing alone. That is besides the point, anyway. There are 25 players worth 10 runs or more defensively this season, according to Fangraphs. There are 13 who are worth 15 or more. Baseball Reference gives it a little more worth; putting 40 players above 10, 19 above 15 and the top at 32.

Cowart is an elite defensive third baseman. He isn't going to be worth 32 defensive runs (at least by today's defensive metrics), but I would pretty comfortably put him around 15 over a full season. Add in the positional adjustment and average to slightly above average baserunning and, with average level offense, you are looking at a player who could be worth more than four wins. Average level offense is a very optimistic assessment, obviously, and is quite unlikely to ever happen. But even if we bump him down to a pessimistic level (let's say 17-20 runs below average, or even slightly more) and you are still looking at a player who has some value. 2016 Jason Heyward is a comparison, his hitting is terrible and his contract looks like a huge mistake but he is still going to finish around 1.5 WAR this year due to his defense.

All of that is pretty speculative but my point really is he can be a pretty bad hitter and still be a valuable player.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

I agree that "a run is a run" but offensively a player is guaranteed that opportunity 3 to 4 times a game.  The opportunity to save runs is surely less. 

True but the best hitters in baseball fail 2 out of 3 ABs.