Crazy stat in the midst of a very mediocre season

[Angel Oracle]

The Halos' run differential after 111 games is -4, despite being 13 games under .500 (4th worst AL record).   That is 9th in AL and 17th in MLB, middle of the road. 

For comparison, Tejas' run differential is only +4.

The bullpen and inability of the starters to pitch deep enough into games are the biggest reasons by far for the 49-62 record. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Decent offense and a terrible bullpen are the hallmark of teams who fail to live up to their run differential.

[mulwin444]

There were a few blow out wins mixed in with some close losses.  Those kind of results usually mess up the Pythag record

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

There were a few blow out wins mixed in with some close losses.  Those kind of results usually mess up the Pythag record

Pythag?

[Amazing Larry]

8 minutes ago, Ace_Shoemaker said:

Pythag?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

[jsnpritchett]

38 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

There were a few blow out wins mixed in with some close losses.  Those kind of results usually mess up the Pythag record

Yep.  I'm normally not a proponent of the "throw out X, and then you'll see..." analysis, but in this case, I think it's pretty justified.  They had two wins by scores of 21-2 and 13-0.  That's a +32 run differential in 2 games.  Throw out those, and they're -36 runs for the year.  They'd still be "expected" to be better than a .441 winning %, but the gap is lessened, obviously.

EDIT: ...and as for Texas, they had a bad stretch in July where they lost 7 or 8 out of 9, I think, including 4 losses by a combined 38 runs. 

[ettin]

The Angels have also had problems over the last 2-3 years with hit and run sequencing (i.e. stringing together a series of hits that produce runs). It has been like feast or famine at times as some of the other posters stated above.

[Ohtaniland]

Does this mean there's a chance? 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 hours ago, Lawrence said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

- Pythagorean theorem

 Pythagorean expectation 

Thanks

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

There were a few blow out wins mixed in with some close losses.  Those kind of results usually mess up the Pythag record

According to that formula we should win 80 games, not bloody likely.

[Inside Pitch]

16 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Decent offense and a terrible bullpen are the hallmark of teams who fail to live up to their run differential.

The offense has been underrated due to all the other crappy components.   104 OPS+ is 4th best in the AL and the .329 OBP is second to only Boston.  But as has been by others -- it's either been scorching hot or gawd awful.

[ten ocho recon scout]

52 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The offense has been underrated due to all the other crappy components.   104 OPS+ is 4th best in the AL and the .329 OBP is second to only Boston.  But as has been by others -- it's either been scorching hot or gawd awful.

That is weird. In terms of splits, off the top of my head (ive been slammed at work this summer so havent paid as much attention as most years), does it seem like it was a bunch of good nights in one month throwing everything off? It seems (and i could be totally wrong) like the offense sucked until june or so, with april and may being really bad (with pitching sucking all year)

[Taylor]

14 hours ago, Ace_Shoemaker said:

- Pythagorean theorem

 Pythagorean expectation 

Thanks

But what about the Pantherian standings?

[John Stellman]

When Scioscia takes the boys to Arizona next spring, let's send most of the time practicing how to get base hits with men in scoring position.  

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, John Stellman said:

When Scioscia takes the boys to Arizona next spring, let's send most of the time practicing how to get base hits with men in scoring position.  

The Angels are hitting .282 with RISP.   Second only to the Bosox in the AL who have hit .283 in those situations, and third overall in MLB.  Cards are first at .285

Good talk...

[ten ocho recon scout]

I think the problem is we let too many other guys get to scoring position.

Still, as positive as the numbers look, id still prefer to shore up the lineup. I just think were way too reliant on a few guys who mask a few others. 

[stormngt]

On 8/8/2016 at 2:16 PM, jsnpritchett said:

Yep.  I'm normally not a proponent of the "throw out X, and then you'll see..." analysis, but in this case, I think it's pretty justified.  They had two wins by scores of 21-2 and 13-0.  That's a +32 run differential in 2 games.  Throw out those, and they're -36 runs for the year.  They'd still be "expected" to be better than a .441 winning %, but the gap is lessened, obviously.

EDIT: ...and as for Texas, they had a bad stretch in July where they lost 7 or 8 out of 9, I think, including 4 losses by a combined 38 runs. 

Analytically speaking if you throw out the two highest scoring wins as outliers,  than you need to toss out the two biggest blowouts as well.

[stormngt]

The problem with run differential on predicting wins is:

A bad closer will result in a lot of close losses, thus appear just to be bad luck instead of the closer.  A bad set up man for the same reason.

 

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

This isn't Arena Football!!!

 

Will you guys quit talking about obscure Championships!.... Pythagorean/ Pantherian CUP! 

[jsnpritchett]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

Analytically speaking if you throw out the two highest scoring wins as outliers,  than you need to toss out the two biggest blowouts as well.

The Angels' two largest blowout losses were "only" by a combined 19.

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

The Angels' two largest blowout losses were "only" by a combined 19.

I understand that

  I am just telling from a quantatitative analysis standpoint (study of stats) if you throw out an outlier from the top you need to throw out an outlier from the bottom.  Otherwise there is a skewed study.  To be honest outliers usually have a less of an impact the larger the sample.  In other words in over 162 games those blow outs shouldn't have a major impact on the averages.

[Angel Oracle]

14 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

The Angels' two largest blowout losses were "only" by a combined 19.

Which means that throwing out the two blowout wins (+32) and two blowout losses (-19), the run differential is still a respectable -21 for a team 14 games under .500. 

[Ray McKigney]

On 8/8/2016 at 10:40 PM, Ace_Shoemaker said:

According to that formula we should win 80 games, not bloody likely.

That sounds like a Cockney accent.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Ray McKigney said:

That sounds like a Cockney accent.

An OC cockney. Naw, just something people say all over the English speaking world. 

[Stradling]

"Good talk" is the new "mic drop" for @Inside Pitch, I kinda like it.