Chris Cotillo: Angels and Padres after Daniel Nava

[Docwaukee]

I always respect what you have to say, Doc. I always agree with most of what you say and everything about this post is absolutely right. This front office doesn't seem to have any direction, I don't get what they are doing. Do they really think this bullpen will cut it? Do they really think a platoon in left will work? Did they learn nothing from last year? There are so many ways to fix this team that are blatantly obvious to any casual fan so it's just stunning that they aren't doing anything except unload all of our young pitching in order to compete in this 5 year window? But if the plan is to compete in this 5 year window why do they seem reluctant to spend. Arte really needs to just mind his own business and tell Scioscia at the beginning of spring training that this is the team our FO piut together now go win the division.

That's kinda my point.  But I am not just referring to this coming season.  

 

We have chosen to be at the very bottom in terms of player development, scouting, international presence etc.  We have spent our way out of draft picks and used every last bit of org currency to fund this five year window.  Fine.  Whatever.  We are where we are and I don't like it, but that's not why I'm annoyed.  

 

They have put themselves here.  However they got there.  But embrace it.  

 

It's the lack of acknowledgement by their actions that has me put off.  At the very best, the messages are very mixed.  Granted, that could change tomorrow, but right now, I am not left with the sense that it will.  

Edited December 13, 2015 by Dochalo

[mulwin444]

So he's kicking tires on Nava...this is Eppler's version of what Dipoto did except, instead of NL West scrubs, he's checking out scrubs formerly from the AL East. We lack depth and, if the price is low, why not? I'll save my whining for when Upton, Cespedes, and Gordon are off the board.

[bloodbrother]

Don't the Angels have like 5 openings on their 40-man roster? These are simply just to fill things out

[ettin]

Eppler is nowhere near as competent as Dipoto, that much is clear. This has been a sad showing by the Angels FO. 

 

There is just no way to compare them yet so this statement is just way too premature. We can only begin a comparison of GM skills when the season starts and we see the product on the field.

[mulwin444]

Yeah, I'm going to give Eppler longer than an unfinished offseason before passing judgement on his competency. Dipoto came after Reagins so it wasn't much of a trick to shine next to that dull turd. Dipoto came in and immediately we signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton so if he wants to make less of these moves I'm all for it.

Edited December 13, 2015 by mulwin444

[totdprods]

There is just no way to compare them yet so this statement is just way too premature. We can only begin a comparison of GM skills when the season starts and we see the product on the field.

Even at that point it'd be a little premature. I'm going to allow a good year before I measure any real comparisons, especially since we will also get an unfettered look at Dipoto with another organization.

The FO would never admit it, but I can see '16 being almost a very soft 'rebuild' - more like a retooling of the organization to set up the Halos for the remainder of the Trout years. I think the team can absolutely compete in '16 and expect them to still proceed with a 'win-now' mindset, but maybe without a hellbent spending force behind it. If they misstep this offseason on a big FA signee, it will really limit their flexibility to spend to improve in '16-'17, but also dampen their efforts to extend/resign the core players '18-'21, as well as limit their spending in the looming '18 FA mega-class.

I want this team to have a shot every single year during Trout's contract, even if that means lessening expectations for one season in hopes it allows a stronger chance in the remainder.

As we've seen with several world champions lately, you don't need star power, a huge payroll, or even the best farm system. You need consistency across the board and a bit of luck.

If the Angels can continually run out a team capable of winning 85-95 the next five years, I like our chances. If this year is one of those 85 years, than so be it.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[tomsred]

Maybe they are trying to build a lot of depth for the bench and that's what they are looking at Nava for. Hopefully they still are looking for a premier left fielder

 

First of all, I refuse to get too excited over an obscure tweet.  Secondly, Eppler already said he wanted to bring in some players would would strengthen the entire organization (I assume he meant the minors as well), because even if they aren't for us long term, they could make good bargaining chips down the road if they show promise, (per his interview on the MLB channel).  I go to the grocery store with a list, but sometimes I see something there that might be useful and make a last minute decision to buy it.  It doesn't mean I'm for sure going to eat it, but it might be useful anyway because it's a good deal.

 

Don't the Angels have like 5 openings on their 40-man roster? These are simply just to fill things out

 

They have 3, by my count on the official website.

Edited December 13, 2015 by tomsred

[totdprods]

Nava would probably be a minor league deal with ST invite.

I think Eppler is probably pursuing the remaining big name OFers, but he's trying to build up a big stash of 4th/platoon types in the event none of them pan out. Even if the Angels *really* want one of them, it isn't an auction, they could offer the most money for each one and still not end up with any of them. This at least gives us some back-up options.

That's an area I felt Dipoto was fairly weak in. I don't really ever remember him adding any depth during his tenure aside from SP, and that was only at the end.

This is way better than missing out on all 3 and then scrambling to sign the scrap heap minor league FAs in January/February to compete for the starting LF position.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[arch stanton]

He's had some success at the ML level. If you can get him for cash or a career minor leaguer then at worst he's released in spring and at best he's a platoon DH while Pujols recovers then gets flipped for a reliever with options who can ride the SLC Express. I seriously doubt anyone expects him to get any significant time in LF.

[Second Base]

Nava would probably be a minor league deal with ST invite.

I think Eppler is probably pursuing the remaining big name OFers, but he's trying to build up a big stash of 4th/platoon types in the event none of them pan out. Even if the Angels *really* want one of them, it isn't an auction, they could offer the most money for each one and still not end up with any of them. This at least gives us some back-up options.

That's an area I felt Dipoto was fairly weak in. I don't really ever remember him adding any depth during his tenure aside from SP, and that was only at the end.

This is way better than missing out on all 3 and then scrambling to sign the scrap heap minor league FAs in January/February to compete for the starting LF position.

Pitching is the single most important component on building a baseball team. Jerry Dipoto built an amount of pitching depth in the system rivaled by very few. Richards is an ace, he'll be back at ace status this year. Heaney has grown into a stady #3 starter. Skaggs is right on the cusp of joining him in the mid-rotation. Tropeano's been cheated out of opportunities since being acquired but he looks like a #3/4. Those four are cheap and have the making of a well above average staff that's around for years.

Then on the peripherals, you have the past their prime vets in Weav and CJ, and inconsistent but capable guys like Santiago and Shoe. When you throw in minor leaguers like Smith, McGowin, Gatto and Long, suddenly you have a system with enough pitching to trade away and still last you a decade.

I only wish Jerry could have built a farm system and offensive depth to match.

[GrittyVeterans]

He's got a .360 career OBP which is extremely impressive

 

But if our platoon in LF is Gentry/Nava...yikes. That's a 4th place ball club at best

[ukyah]

Even at that point it'd be a little premature. I'm going to allow a good year before I measure any real comparisons, especially since we will also get an unfettered look at Dipoto with another organization.

The FO would never admit it, but I can see '16 being almost a very soft 'rebuild' - more like a retooling of the organization to set up the Halos for the remainder of the Trout years. I think the team can absolutely compete in '16 and expect them to still proceed with a 'win-now' mindset, but maybe without a hellbent spending force behind it. If they misstep this offseason on a big FA signee, it will really limit their flexibility to spend to improve in '16-'17, but also dampen their efforts to extend/resign the core players '18-'21, as well as limit their spending in the looming '18 FA mega-class.

I want this team to have a shot every single year during Trout's contract, even if that means lessening expectations for one season in hopes it allows a stronger chance in the remainder.

As we've seen with several world champions lately, you don't need star power, a huge payroll, or even the best farm system. You need consistency across the board and a bit of luck.

If the Angels can continually run out a team capable of winning 85-95 the next five years, I like our chances. If this year is one of those 85 years, than so be it.

 

 

i disagree. i'm not interested in folllowing teams that expect to win 85 games or whatever. the angels are in win now strategy, anything less than that because of luxury tax concerns is not to my expectation. 

 

run this shit like the yankees under steinbrenner right now. we've made our bed, lie in it.

[totdprods]

Dipoto did an amazing job with the SP depth after the Blanton/Hanson debacle. What we have now could take care of us through 2018, at least mostly.

But I'm struggling to recall any real solid offensive depth/bench signings or acquisitions he made in his time here. Johnny Mac as a defensive specialist is about it. None of his minor league signees ever had an impact. The bench was always light. Anytime we had a player struggle or injured, there was never anyone ready to step in.

Cowgill, Shuck, and Gia are the only real out of nowhere minor league guys who had a season (or more) long impact. Chris Nelson...maybe? He had a good week once. Jon Hester wasn't a terrible fill-in catcher.

But Langerhans, Cousins, Hawpe, Harris, Boesch...eek.

I know there's a chance Buss, Ortega, Choi, etc never contribute but at least the Pennington, Soto, Gentry deals already represent what feels like more effort to fill the bench with some players who should have success as reserves.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[totdprods]

i disagree. i'm not interested in folllowing teams that expect to win 85 games or whatever. the angels are in win now strategy, anything less than that because of luxury tax concerns is not to my expectation.

run this shit like the yankees under steinbrenner right now. we've made our bed, lie in it.

86 wins would have gotten us into the playoffs last year. And when I look at the 2015 team, I see almost a team-wide underperformance.

2016 will likely have its share of underperforming Angels again, but I don't think this team is as doomed as some are making it out to be.

Even if Arte goes over tax this year, it seems obvious he's starting to scrape the limits of what he wants to spend financially. I think multiple investments that are shorter in money and years will allow us to keep that 85-95 win range better than going for broke for one year. I'd rather that money for a big name player be spread out into several players and better drafting/scouting.

If one expensive player winds up failing, we are right back where we started with less money. If one mid-level player bombs, we still have some other cogs still funcitioning.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[totdprods]

i disagree. i'm not interested in folllowing teams that expect to win 85 games or whatever. the angels are in win now strategy, anything less than that because of luxury tax concerns is not to my expectation.

run this shit like the yankees under steinbrenner right now. we've made our bed, lie in it.

Or, another way to look at it, the last time we Yankee'd this shit was 2011 Winter Meetings when we grabbed Pujols and Wilson and failed to make the playoffs for three years straight because Dipoto had no money to invest into farm and tried to pull off all these crafty cheap Blanton/Hanson deals.

I worry that if we shell out big money this offseason, we will have nothing left to fix needs next year, or won't be able to extend Calhoun, Richards, Heaney, Skaggs in a few years, and we watch them walk without a farm rebuilt in time to replace them. So we roll into Trout's final two years with a team like the 2013 Angels and a piece-meal roster of cheap budget buys that tanks hard.

So, yeah, I'd be willing to risk the '16-'17 teams winning 85 as a minimum and sneaking in as wild cards if it meant we were able to really throw some dough into the '18 class and go into Trout's final years with a badass team looking to win 95-105 '18-'20. We may actually be able to resign him then. Richards, Heaney, Skaggs will all be young vets, Trout will be in his prime, and we will have money to play with the next big FA class to supplement our core at their peak.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[halosfan1970]

86 wins would have gotten us into the playoffs last year. And when I look at the 2015 team, I see almost a team-wide underperformance.

2016 will likely have its share of underperforming Angels again, but I don't think this team is as doomed as some are making it out to be.

Even if Arte goes over tax this year, it seems obvious he's starting to scrape the limits of what he wants to spend financially. I think multiple investments that are shorter in money and years will allow us to keep that 85-95 win range better than going for broke for one year. I'd rather that money for a big name player be spread out into several players and better drafting/scouting.

If one expensive player winds up failing, we are right back where we started with less money. If one mid-level player bombs, we still have some other cogs still functioning.

 

The 2014 98 win team over-performed. The 2015 85 win team under-performed. Eppler is building a better team in 2016 from 2015. However, the rest of the AL West is getting better. Is it enough?

Edited December 13, 2015 by halosfan1970

[totdprods]

The 2014 98 win team over-performed. The 2015 85 win team under-performed. Eppler is building a better team in 2016 from 2105. However, the rest of the AL West is getting better. Is it enough?

It may not be, and that's part of why I don't know if we should try to spend ourselves like crazy this offseason to keep up with the Joneses, especially if it just further handicaps us in a couple years again. One could make the argument Texas is at a peak these next two years. Fielder could age/regress, Darvish will be hitting FA in two years I think, Hamels isn't getting younger....they have a good farm, but they'be tapped into it quite a bit, and a lot of their players haven't really panned out as well as expected.

I think the playoffs are fluky enough that if the Angels are just good enough to get in, they have a chance. If the young pitching stays on course and we hit October with a hot Trout, I like our chances.

[Docwaukee]

Even at that point it'd be a little premature. I'm going to allow a good year before I measure any real comparisons, especially since we will also get an unfettered look at Dipoto with another organization.

The FO would never admit it, but I can see '16 being almost a very soft 'rebuild' - more like a retooling of the organization to set up the Halos for the remainder of the Trout years. I think the team can absolutely compete in '16 and expect them to still proceed with a 'win-now' mindset, but maybe without a hellbent spending force behind it. If they misstep this offseason on a big FA signee, it will really limit their flexibility to spend to improve in '16-'17, but also dampen their efforts to extend/resign the core players '18-'21, as well as limit their spending in the looming '18 FA mega-class.

I want this team to have a shot every single year during Trout's contract, even if that means lessening expectations for one season in hopes it allows a stronger chance in the remainder.

As we've seen with several world champions lately, you don't need star power, a huge payroll, or even the best farm system. You need consistency across the board and a bit of luck.

If the Angels can continually run out a team capable of winning 85-95 the next five years, I like our chances. If this year is one of those 85 years, than so be it.

there are no years to get things together.  no time to wait for the guys that might come next.  There are no guys.  There is no next. 

 

Eppler divulged his plan when he traded Newcomb and Ellis.  At least he thought that would be the plan.  Even with those guys, the plan would still be the same.  They didn't go from having a good farm to a poor one by losing those two guys.  But now that they've moved those guys for a 26yo SS, they have to win now.  There are no allowable 85 win seasons.  Because 5 years from now, you've got nothing.  

 

Every team is different.  The Royals may not have had a household named player, but the got 7.2 WAR from the CFer.  You don't need star names, but star performances.  

 

The only way to give yourself a chance to have a little luck help you is to win during the regular season.  Which isn't about luck.  

 

I like our chances when we fill the roster with as much talent as possible.  We've spent the last ten years putting ourselves in our current position.  I don't like it, but it is what it is and it's better than the position of some other teams.  We have a chance because of Mike Trout and for almost no other reason.  So when you have that chance in spite of everything else you have done, you take what you are given and you run with it as fast as you can in that direction.  You don't leave wins on the table.  

 

Going to war with a platoon in LF and whatever else we have is leaving wins on the table.  

 

The Angels have one opportunity to make the most of the five year window they have created.  That opportunity is to spend money to make themselves better during that window.  If they decide not to take that opportunity then so be it.  I am not the one writing the checks.  But it's there for the taking and they should consider themselves lucky to even have it.  

[totdprods]

I don't object to them spending money, just feel doing so on one big FA is awfully sketchy and risks putting us in the same position year in and year out.

That $150-200m to Upton/Cespedes/Heyward....if they sign and promptly bomb upon arrival, or Richards needs TJ, or we experience the Joyce/Iannetta/Aybar slump next year with Calhoun/Perez/Heaney how do even think about fixing ourselves next year? No money, no farm, more question marks than this year. A very thin FA class to shop in, and right back to threat of trading prospects for fixes.

Using that same money on Gordon, Murphy, a pen arm, some reinvestment in the farm/drafting/scouting, and having some money for emergencies and no new long contracts helps us fix whatever problems arise next year and the year after. Our fate won't hinge as much on one hugely expensive FA succeeding or failing.

Overall I think the big thing I'm preaching is I see parallels between this offseason and the 2011 Pujols/Wilson offseason. We banked on big money then, and it kept us from fixing the farm and spending on new fixes for a few years after. I worry we are setting the team up for the same scenario when our young core should be at their peak.

Edited December 13, 2015 by totdprods

[Brent Maguire]

So many people are to blame for the Angels current mess. Reagins went all in with bad short term moves right before he was canned. Arte wanted to spend a bunch of money to keep trying to push the win-now window. Dipoto did things well but he also neglected drafting any meaningful upside players. Eppler has been thrust into a near impossible position if Arte isn't willing to let him spend enough. Right now, Mike Trout is the saving grace and the only meaningful reason why the Angels will continue to compete. 

[Docwaukee]

I don't object to them spending money, just feel doing so on one big FA is awfully sketchy and risks putting us in the same position year in and year out.

That $150-200m to Upton/Cespedes/Heyward....if they sign and promptly bomb upon arrival, or Richards needs TJ, or we experience the Joyce/Iannetta/Aybar slump next year with Calhoun/Perez/Heaney how do even think about fixing ourselves next year? No money, no farm, more question marks than this year. A very thin FA class to shop in, and right back to threat of trading prospects for fixes.

Using that same money on Gordon, Murphy, a pen arm, some reinvestment in the farm/drafting/scouting, and having some money for emergencies and no new long contracts helps us fix whatever problems arise next year and the year after. Our fate won't hinge as much on one hugely expensive FA succeeding or failing.

Overall I think the big thing I'm preaching is I see parallels between this offseason and the 2011 Pujols/Wilson offseason. We banked on big money then, and it kept us from fixing the farm and spending on new fixes for a few years after. I worry we are setting the team up for the same scenario when our young core should be at their peak.

Our young core will be at their peak for the next 5 years.  It's all we have.  The difference between this year and 2011 is that we don't have Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, Garrett Richards etc waiting in the minors.  Our eggs are in one basket.  There are no other baskets.  If any of those scenarios presented actually happen, then we are hosed regardless.  There is no recovering from any of that.  Its where we have put ourselves.  Reliant upon the free agent market to create a competitive team.  I don't like it, but it is what it is.  So to optimize your limited opportunity you have to see it through.  Take the risk on buying your way to a championship for the next five years.  

 

Eppler has already made it clear that that's where we are.  They have driven this franchise to the corner of desperate and lucky.  They can't get out and ask for directions to somewhere else.  They are out of gas.  Park the car, get out, and act like it's where you meant to go all along.  

[ukyah]

totdprods, you seem like a level headed guy, which i respect, and i can see your pov, but i think you're throwing around "85-95 wins" a little too lackadaisically. while i understand that a few games, over the course of a season can go one way or another, there really is a huge difference between an 85 win team and an 95 win team. it's more like did you build an 82-86 win team or did you build a 92-96 win team? ten games seems like a little, and would be subject to chance, but it's all the difference in the world.

Edited December 13, 2015 by ukyah

[Guest]

yeah like signing Blanton. This could be just a bench move he plays 1B also, maybe Cron is being traded. But bullshit on he's not as competent as Ditpoto. Angels made the playoffs ONE time under Dipoto, over-rated.

Plenty of us have been critical about a few Dipoto decisions over the years, but guy is a wizard at roster building, and we've seen him turn chicken shit into chicken salad on multiple occasions. Even when he made questionable decisions, he still exuded confidence and all his moves reflected an understood philosophy and strategy. With Eppler, I see someone with an unclear strategy and a literal deer in the headlights. I have no clue what his philosophy is, while his roster building has been inconsistent and incoherent.

Dipoto is a very aggressive GM and he never rests on his laurels. He's very savvy compared to most GMs out there, and his complete acceptance of Sabermetrics provided a much needed counterpoint to Scioscia's baseball philosophy. Eppler is wishy-washy when it comes to embracing statistical analyses

and unlike Eppler thus far, knows how to close a deal. Seeing as how Scioscia is the figurehead of the franchise, both he and Bud Black (Assistant to the GM), are influencing Eppler: who seems like a genuinely decent guy and not as stubborn and controlling as Dipoto.

Eppler's moves thus far align with Scioscia's thinking: like having little regard for prospects, acquiring veteran players, etc... The Simmons trade contradicts that—a trade which I find to be wholly bizarre and incongruous with the team's needs. Dipoto was the best thing to happen to this team's FO, and I'm afraid we won't ever get the team we want. Seeing the Mariners transform in such a short time really made me see how incredible Dipoto is as a GM.

edit: apologies for the stream of thought writing.

Edited December 13, 2015 by failos

[Ohtaniland]

Yeah, I'm going to give Eppler longer than an unfinished offseason before passing judgement on his competency. Dipoto came after Reagins so it wasn't much of a trick to shine next to that dull turd. Dipoto came in and immediately we signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton so if he wants to make less of these moves I'm all for it.

Yes exactly. Eppler has been on the job for a whole six weeks and Arte finally drew a line in the sand on the budget. He has to work around four contracts for Pujols, Weaver, Wilson and Hamilton that add up to more than the entire Oakland A's budget. The pitchers and catchers haven't reported to spring training yet so let's fire him.

[eligrba]

Didn't think the offseason would be this emotional and this entertaining.