Never overpay for defense

[totdprods]

My point is that regardless of the market, you do not overpay unless the guy is a superstar offensively. By someone's fangraph account here, Hayward is a top 30 guy offensively. Exactly, he is not a top offensive guy so why pay him for the potential he won't reach.

Top 30 means he would be the top hitter on at least one team, and second best hitter on any team. He'd be a great addition.

He's also a lock to exercise an opt out 3-5 years into the deal. Get his prime years now, and let him walk at that point, unless he's blossomed into a true 5-tool star. Which is possible.

Edited December 5, 2015 by totdprods

[nikkachez]

I look at it this way. Heyward was on base about 36% of the time last year. That would have been second on this team. When you look at who hit in front of Trout last year, the three stiffs in order from highest to lowest OBP were: Giavotella (his .318 OBP was actually third! on the team), Calhoun (.308), and Aybar (.301).

 

Consider that a .050 increase in OBP over 600 PA means 30 more runners on base in front of Trout, and you can probably see how much difference someone like Heyward would make.

 

When you also consider Heyward's age (26) and that 5-tool players NEVER reach free agency at that age (before their prime), and the fact that the Angels' rotation is full of fly ball pitchers, Heyward's value is MUCH higher than any of the other outfielders that are available.

Soooooo much this. Without looking, Freese must've been second (which is scary). Heyward and another decent OBP guy would be very welcome to the lineup. The Angels don't really need a lot more power. 

[Lou]

Is it any wonder that a guy who has a profound love for Manny Ramirez doesn't put a high value on defense?

[ettin]

One thing ill add, and maybe its the wrong thread, but ive been thinking about it since the simmons trade.

I keep reading a run saved is as good as a run scored. (Preface by saying im a huge fan of offense). The problem is see with that theory is that unless you totally scrutanize EVERY play over a year, i dont see how you can truly say player X saved a run player Y wouldnt have.

I guess its more of an argument about simmons vs aybar (or someone similar). The leap from hood defense to elite defense is very real. But the problem i see is it kind of depends on the other guy hitting the ball at SS (for this scenario) when its needed. Meaning as good as simmons is, he cant cover 3B/2B. So its great when theres a big play he vacuums up a hit a lesser SS would have grabbed, but the majority of plays to him will be covered by anothwr good-not great SS.

On the other side of the coin, i see more situations (especially with our offense) that he comes to bat in an important situation and his average bat hurts us.

Im probably not explaining myself well enough, hopefully someone can kind of see where im going and clean it up so it doesnt sound so stupid. But my point being that while technicallh, yes, a run saved counts the same as a run scored, you could make the counter argument about a run scored being as important as a run saved. The trick is figuring out which one will happen more.

In the case of heyward vs upton, i keep reading we need OBP not power. Maybe, but firstly, one guy wont fix that while we stil have duds in the back of the order. I think another moto hitter helps us more there. Second, its not like heyward is blowing upton out in that category anyway (like cespedes).

Just my 2 cents, and ill be happy if we sign heyward. Very happy. I just kind of agree with the OP, id just tweak it to say dont overpay for strictly defense (like we did with simmons)

I'll take a crack at this Ocho but please understand I'm doing this off the top of my head and fast so here it goes:

So hitters generally play every day. The best hitters get maybe 1 hit out of every 3 at-bats. Lesser ones might get 1 hit out of every 4 at-bats.

Starting pitchers generally pitch once every 5 days and end up impacting every hitter they face for one or more innings in a game.

Defenders are also possible participants on any particular ball in play against any particular hitter. If the ball is hit in their direction the really good defenders generally only fail about 2-5% of the time (1 out of 50 attempts to 1 out of 20 attempts). How often any particular defender gets an opportunity to field a ball depends on the position they play (SS for instance where any defender is more likely to see more balls in play), the types of hitters on the opposing team (groundball vs. linedrive vs. flyball hitters), the type of pitcher on the mound (GB vs. LD vs. FB type pitchers), and even more minute factors such as turf type (grass height vs. artificial turf for example).

I'm throwing out numbers here but let's say during a game that 35 hitters come to bat in a game. Let's assume that collectively they hit .250 and 9 of those hitters actually get a hit that puts them on base. That leaves 26 at-bats where those hitters either hit the ball and got out, walked, or they struck out.

Major League average for K% is something like 20%-25% so lets use the latter. That means about 9 of those 35 at-bats were K's. Let's also say that about 7% of those hitters walked so that's another 3 so that leaves about 14 hitters who made contact but were put out.

The SS position very likely receives the highest percentage of hits because 70% of MLB is right-handed and they tend to, as a group, put the ball into play on the left side of the field. I'm a little too lazy to go look it up but I imagine about 40% of balls in play go to the left side, about 30% up the middle, and about 20% to the right side in GENERAL. There is probably close to 10% that leave the park. Again these are pure guesses but I'm trying to get across a concept here.

So realistically a SS might see 2-3 balls in play come his way during any game and he'll likely field most of them every time converting a large percentage (think 80%+) into outs.

The bottom line is that a good hitter will get out twice in a game. A good starting pitcher will create upwards of 15+ outs in a game. A good SS will likely create 2-3 outs in a game.

Which comes back to the common phrase of pitching and defense win games. Good defense is a very reliable aspect of baseball. Starting pitchers can experience mechanical flaws or tip their pitches. Batter can be in deep slumps where they're not seeing the ball. But defense is hands down the most reliable aspect.

Feel free to poke holes in this argument. I did it on the fly when I saw Ocho's question and of course I am specifically talking about SS's as other positions will not be as prolific in getting outs but I think this gets the point across. Also remember it is not just about the range of a defender but how sure and true they field the ball and what kind of arm they have to deliver it to the necessary bag to convert the out. Both Aybar and Simmons have cannons for arms.

I think modern sabermetrics have helped identify the value of a good defender especially at defense-critical positions. Just read an article earlier today where the author spoke about how teams have realized that power only types (Alvarez, Carter, Trumbo) aren't quite as valuable to teams as they once were because they only bring one tool which is the home run.

Defense has value and their is an appropriate price to pay for it but that old adage is true of any aspect of the game: You don't want to overpay for anything whether it is defense, offense, or pitching. You want the best players and value you can find.

[Troll Daddy]

I lost you at 'I'll take crack'

[ten ocho recon scout]

Hey now.

lol. I just pictured a guy eating chili noodles top ramen and a clock medalian turning a sweet double play.

@Mark and Ettin, all good points and dont disagree. Just a question i keep turning over in my mind. I think adding frontline pitching, which is defense, makes more sense because they are obviously involved in every pitch. Whereas a guy like RF may be a beast, but only on balls hit to RF.

On a seperate note, i keep reading where so and so would rank on our team OBP. Mark best me to it before i posted, its because of how abysmal our team obp was. Just about any average player would beat what we rolled out in a bunch of spots last year.

On this site we keep making fun of trumbos obp, but continue to mkae sick lineups of calhoun batting 1st or second....

My only point is that with both simmons and heyward is that they are both phenom gloves, both phenom overall players. I just think emptying the farm for a glove first guy and breaking rhe bank on one whos value is more defense than bat is gonna hurt as long as we have the black hole at SS/C and potentially 3B and 2B. Just my 2 cents. Id be a lot more comfortable if calhoun was a better on base guy and cron was a bonafide complete hitter type.

[halosfan1970]

What?? Just ignore the max effort and the fact they get dirty?

 

You're thinking of Thai prostitutes not Chinese.

[Dick B Back]

Aybar can't play hood defense cause he's from the DR and therefore an imposter.

[Troll Daddy]

lol. I just pictured a guy eating chili noodles top ramen and a clock medalian turning a sweet double play.

@Mark and Ettin, all good points and dont disagree. Just a question i keep turning over in my mind. I think adding frontline pitching, which is defense, makes more sense because they are obviously involved in every pitch. Whereas a guy like RF may be a beast, but only on balls hit to RF.

On a seperate note, i keep reading where so and so would rank on our team OBP. Mark best me to it before i posted, its because of how abysmal our team obp was. Just about any average player would beat what we rolled out in a bunch of spots last year.

On this site we keep making fun of trumbos obp, but continue to mkae sick lineups of calhoun batting 1st or second....

My only point is that with both simmons and heyward is that they are both phenom gloves, both phenom overall players. I just think emptying the farm for a glove first guy and breaking rhe bank on one whos value is more defense than bat is gonna hurt as long as we have the black hole at SS/C and potentially 3B and 2B. Just my 2 cents. Id be a lot more comfortable if calhoun was a better on base guy and cron was a bonafide complete hitter type.

Simmons OBP .321

Team OBP .307

You're right about C/3b/2b

Edited December 5, 2015 by Troll Daddy

[Lou]

lol. I just pictured a guy eating chili noodles top ramen and a clock medalian turning a sweet double play.

@Mark and Ettin, all good points and dont disagree. Just a question i keep turning over in my mind. I think adding frontline pitching, which is defense, makes more sense because they are obviously involved in every pitch. Whereas a guy like RF may be a beast, but only on balls hit to RF.

On a seperate note, i keep reading where so and so would rank on our team OBP. Mark best me to it before i posted, its because of how abysmal our team obp was. Just about any average player would beat what we rolled out in a bunch of spots last year.

On this site we keep making fun of trumbos obp, but continue to mkae sick lineups of calhoun batting 1st or second....

My only point is that with both simmons and heyward is that they are both phenom gloves, both phenom overall players. I just think emptying the farm for a glove first guy and breaking rhe bank on one whos value is more defense than bat is gonna hurt as long as we have the black hole at SS/C and potentially 3B and 2B. Just my 2 cents. Id be a lot more comfortable if calhoun was a better on base guy and cron was a bonafide complete hitter type.

Simmons had a higher OPS than Aybar last year

of all qualified ss in 2015, Simmons had the 3rd highest OBP

Edited December 5, 2015 by Lou

[nikkachez]

Simmons had a higher OPS than Aybar last year

of all qualified ss in 2015, Simmons had the 3rd highest OBP

And he's a million times better defensively. 

[nikkachez]

Simmons is light years ahead of Aybar defensively, Soto replacing Iannetta as the backup catcher is a defensive improvement, Pennington replacing Featherston seems like an offensive and defensive upgrade (Pennington has a reputation as a good defender), and I'd think the FO feels like Cunningham or Ortega can be a cheaper alternative to Cowgill. Keep up the run prevention. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Simmons had a higher OPS than Aybar last year

of all qualified ss in 2015, Simmons had the 3rd highest OBP

yeah, totally get that point Lou. But what im getting at was that aybar was in a lot of ways part of the overall problem with the offense last year. Simmons today is a slightly better bat than aybar is today and going forward. So, to me, its not so much saying we improved offensively at SS, just that we essentially replaced a better glove for the same bat there going forward. Not at all a bad move, i still like getting simmons. Hes gonna be a stud out there. Its just that i would have preffered to target a lesser glove, even lesser bat there but for a lower cost.

If simmons hit like, or was projected to hit like aybar a few years ago, totally different story. It just looks to me like hes going to be roughly the same (bat wise) as we had last year at short, with similar questions at too many other spots. Roght now it looks like freese comes back, so we dont inprove there. C is still gonna be below average batwise. 2B is a huge question. Individually none of them are a problem, its the whole that worries me.

[Mark68]

This is kinda different thinking here, but when you look at what this year's lineup could look like, considering last year's OPS/OBP figures, I think a lineup like this would kick some ass:

 

Heyward    .359/.797

Trout         .402/.991

Freese      .323/.743

Pujols        .307/.787

Calhoun    .308/.731

Cron          .300/.739

Perez/Soto .299/.645  .301/.708

Giavotella   .318/.694

Simmons    .321/.660

[nikkachez]

This is kinda different thinking here, but when you look at what this year's lineup could look like, considering last year's OPS/OBP figures, I think a lineup like this would kick some ass:

 

Heyward    .359/.797

Trout         .402/.991

Freese      .323/.743

Pujols        .307/.787

Calhoun    .308/.731

Cron          .300/.739

Perez/Soto .299/.645  .301/.708

Giavotella   .318/.694

Simmons    .321/.660

 

If only they could get a leadoff option at second base to hit in front of Heyward. I love Heyward, but I want him hitting second with someone else who can get on base at a decent rate in front of him. Then you go Trout, Pujols, Kole, Cron, and Freese. Love if Arte went ham and signed Fernandez to eventually join he club. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

One thing ill add, and maybe its the wrong thread, but ive been thinking about it since the simmons trade.

I keep reading a run saved is as good as a run scored. (Preface by saying im a huge fan of offense). The problem is see with that theory is that unless you totally scrutanize EVERY play over a year, i dont see how you can truly say player X saved a run player Y wouldnt have.

I guess its more of an argument about simmons vs aybar (or someone similar). The leap from hood defense to elite defense is very real. But the problem i see is it kind of depends on the other guy hitting the ball at SS (for this scenario) when its needed. Meaning as good as simmons is, he cant cover 3B/2B. So its great when theres a big play he vacuums up a hit a lesser SS would have grabbed, but the majority of plays to him will be covered by anothwr good-not great SS.

On the other side of the coin, i see more situations (especially with our offense) that he comes to bat in an important situation and his average bat hurts us.

Im probably not explaining myself well enough, hopefully someone can kind of see where im going and clean it up so it doesnt sound so stupid. But my point being that while technicallh, yes, a run saved counts the same as a run scored, you could make the counter argument about a run scored being as important as a run saved. The trick is figuring out which one will happen more.

In the case of heyward vs upton, i keep reading we need OBP not power. Maybe, but firstly, one guy wont fix that while we stil have duds in the back of the order. I think another moto hitter helps us more there. Second, its not like heyward is blowing upton out in that category anyway (like cespedes).

Just my 2 cents, and ill be happy if we sign heyward. Very happy. I just kind of agree with the OP, id just tweak it to say dont overpay for strictly defense (like we did with simmons)

 

Some interesting data from Fangraphs.

 

Last year Simmons had 235 putouts and 444 assists, vs Aybar's 244 and 359 (in about 50 extra innings).

 

Obviously that doesn't tell the whole story with regards to chances. Inside Edge fielding is a lot more detailed. There is too much to regurgitate here, but it's definitely worth a look. Essentially it breaks plays down into the likelihood of them being converted to outs and shows the percentage of plays the player made. Simmons shows just how much value you can extract from just making more routine plays than everyone else (23 more routine plays than Aybar).  

[ten ocho recon scout]

^good stuff ALF

Not to keep "arguing" my point, more just i guess to explain what im getting at, but wven with advanced stats and computers it leaves out an answer, that honestly cant be answered. If player X makes a great play, yes, maybe (probably) player Y doesnt. But that also assumes player Y would have been positioned exactly where X was. Maybe Y knows he doesnt have the range so cheats over?

Again, nonway to answer that. But going back to my first post on the subject, to me its a little too simple to say ny position player is worth more wins because of defense alone. SS would probably be the best position to argue that point. But theres just so many variables.

Sorry guys, guess i dont even really have a point, haha. Just more tossing a question around in my head

[ten ocho recon scout]

And edit, the first post i said im a huge fan of offense, meant to say defense. That needs to be in there. I think defense is huge, especially at rhe important spots. So im not discounting what a guy like simmons can do.

[ukyah]

i look forward to tdawg and mram's future together. may they live in interesting times.

[tdawg87]

I agree. Why the heck did we overpay for Simmons.

To tdawg, hey I've read your posts on quite a few threads and got nauseous on your logic. Thankfully you and Reagins are not GMing the team.

My point is that regardless of the market, you do not overpay unless the guy is a superstar offensively. By someone's fangraph account here, Hayward is a top 30 guy offensively. Exactly, he is not a top offensive guy so why pay him for the potential he won't reach.

If I'm spending 20 to 30 million a year I am paying a guy who can carry the team. That isn't heyward

 

No, I believe we are all thankful that YOU are not GMing the team.

 

Also, please provide an example of a player who would carry the team who is currently available.

Edited December 5, 2015 by tdawg87

[tdawg87]

Yes but, what about impact?

[tdawg87]

Heyward hit .264 with RISP in 2015. But shhhh, please don't spoil it for the people who want Arte to fork out $200M+ for his services.

 

 

That matters exponentially because the Angels would be getting Heyward to bat in the middle of the order and be a run producer, obviously.

[ettin]

Heyward hit .264 with RISP in 2015. But shhhh, please don't spoil it for the people who want Arte to fork out $200M+ for his services.

Honestly I've kept my mouth shut but 90%+ of your previous posts in the last handful of days have been nearly identical.

It really is making me nauseous. We got your point not once, not twice, not thrice but multiple times.

[Ohtaniland]

Honestly I've kept my mouth shut but 90%+ of your previous posts in the last handful of days have been nearly identical.

It really is making me nauseous. We got your point not once, not twice, not thrice but multiple times.

I've taken the time to read every one of your primers. I have no issues with any of them because of the solid content. I may not agree with everything you write but I wouldn't shoot you down for it. I just think that Arte should take a more conservative approach and let his new GM do his thing. The Simmons trade was the first indication that Eppler is going to take charge and put in his own plan. I'm good with his direction so far. Edited December 5, 2015 by CALZONE

[Troll Daddy]

On a side note ... in 2014 the team lead both leagues in Run production without a real left fielder. That doesn't mean the the FO wouldn't love to sign Heyward but at what price? same goes for Manny, Moe, and Jack.

What does this mean ... do we really need to spend $200M on ONE player to get back to 2014 accomplishments?