The 2015 Angels are not a 98 win team.........

[Ohtaniland]

I should say that I don't think this team will be as strong as last years team. DiPoto is counting on a weaker division IMO. Not to mention that the new wild card system is showing that being the best team in baseball doesn't really payoff.

 

I'm concerned with the defense. Freese is bad, Aybar is past his prime, Green was a butcher, Pujols is old and his replacement Cron is terrible, Iannetta is definitely below average. The outfield is fine though Hamilton didn't look too hot out there last year, and Trout rated out as poor. I do like Calhoun's defense though. 

 

And the damn Lakers.........

 

You bring up some very interesting points. 

[Butcher'd]

The 2014 Angels weren't even supposed to win 81.

 

Yes they were. 170 million dollar payroll. The Angels (now) are always expected to finish over .500. It's been that way since about 2004.

[Inside Pitch]

I'm simply saying that, yes, the projections see a lot of upside in Seattle's youth, and a lot of potential downside in our teams older veterans - to the point of a several game advantage in their projected standings for 2015 in favor of the M's. I do think the Angels are a significantly better team, but the projections do make me pause for a moment. I don't think the inclusion of defense and upside vs down side in the projections is a flaw, I just disagree with their conclusions. I'm not sure where the flaw is specifically, so I'm hesitant to say the Angels are definitely the better team.

 

It's one thing to say that the projections are wrong because of a flaw, and another to say that the projections are simply including a part of baseball that we fans tend to sweep under the rug. If the later is the real reason the Mariners are projected better then I am concerned.

 

Yep -- all good comments.   I'm not so much saying the systems are massively flawed as much as I think we are in a period of uncharted history where projections may be a bit goofy...   Like you, I don't see the gap being as wide as Steamer projects..   

Edited January 11, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Troll Daddy]

I should say that I don't think this team will be as strong as last years team. DiPoto is counting on a weaker division IMO. Not to mention that the new wild card system is showing that being the best team in baseball doesn't really payoff.

I'm concerned with the defense. Freese is bad, Aybar is past his prime, Green was a butcher, Pujols is old and his replacement Cron is terrible, Iannetta is definitely below average. The outfield is fine though Hamilton didn't look too hot out there last year, and Trout rated out as poor. I do like Calhoun's defense though.

Defense has become more of a premium now that the steroid era is over as we all know. Defense basically carried KC through the playoffs.

I think second base and catcher is our biggest concerns. Although, I'm excited to see how Rutledge pans out at second base. I think he'll work well with our GG shortstop. Pujols IMO is still a above average defensive player.

[Second Base]

That's exactly what I meant by the soft 98, I should've been more clear about it though. I feel as though the Angels won that many games not by luck at all. I mean if they were lucky, Richards never would've been hurt and neither would've Hamilton.

Just by natural progression, I feel they should be a better team.

[OregonLAA]

Can't wait until Cruz stops juicing and spends half the year on the DL and their offense still stinks

[vlad27]

 I think the 2015 team is a 90 plus win team and I think a division win / playoff run is a strong possibility . I am maybe more concerned than the average fan about the loss of Kendrick  both offensively and defensively . I get that he never won that batting title but his production will be missed - there really isn't anyone on the current roster that will put up his numbers in my opinion. Every time I hear " Hamilton better step up to replace Howie's numbers " I laugh , then cry a little.

     I also think we have taken for granted how solid the combo of Kendrick / Aybar was up the middle . We are going to see a drop off if Green is our guy at 2b . I get that we needed young cost controlled pitching long term and the deal gave us that but this season I think we will miss Howie quite a bit 

[fan_since79]

I would love for Wilson to have a bounce back season, but if he doesn't I hope Scioscia has no problems calling on the next guy in line. Because he is a veteran, I would give him the first month to get it figured out, if he doesn't then simply move him to the pen and hand the ball to Tropeano, or Santiago, or Heaney, whoever isn't currently starting.

 

Couldn't agree more. There has to be a short leash on Wilson. We can't afford to watch him blow a bunch of games trying to figure out his release point. Enough!

[vlad27]

I agree too - short leash for sure -  im glad it seems like we have some pitching depth

[floplag]

i have to say i dont get the logic here... this team is better than ;last years in the sense that it will have a deep solid staff and a shutdown closer from day 1, if we had those things last year we might have won 110, lol

Yes, a lot went right and wrong, kinda cancels things out i think.

If we get anything near Hamilton contribution out of Hamilton we will be much better than last year.

 

all that having been said, im more scared of Sea than Oak, Hou will be better, and Tex is a total wildcard to me right now, could be good, could be terrible.

[Brent Maguire]

I'm very comfortable with projecting this team to win anywhere from 88-95 games. The floor is high for this group due to the depth of this team and the lack of glaring weaknesses. I wouldn't want to project anything over 95 wins because there is way too much random variance in baseball to project any team, no matter how good they look on paper, for close to 100 wins. 

 

The division is going to be strong again this year as well. I think the Angels, A's, Mariners and Rangers will all finish within the 84-96 win range, with the Astros finishing around 72-75 wins. There's a lot of parity in baseball right now so I fully expect this division race to be close and very entertaining. 

[Lou]

i say the Angels are not a 97 win team.

 

98 ? perhaps

96? possibly

 

97? no chance

[floplag]

im sorry but help me out here those of you predicting barely better than .500... what is it you see that you think this team is going to drop back 10 games?
I get hedging your bets but sheesh, really?

[19HALO71]

Haven't read through the whole thread, so this may be a repeat of someone. But last year's team could have won over 100 games if Frieri was not closing. Not sure how many blown saves he had before he was traded. So I do believe that the 2015 team may very well eclipse the 100 win mark.

Edited January 13, 2015 by 19HALO71

[Chuck]

The 2014 Angels were NOT a 98 win team heading into the season, either.

 

Just saying! 

 

There were a lot of things that went right in '14, but there were also a lot of things that went wrong. 

 

Key injuries. Rough BP start. Hamilton. No Production from DH spot. Losing Richards for the final 5 weeks. Sputtering down the stretch, heading into the playoffs. 

[Jim]

I think the main difference between the 2014 and 2015 teams is that the floor is much higher on this year's team. I just don't see how they can win fewer than 85 games, unless all hell breaks loose. That's what depth brings you--not necessarily a higher ceiling; for that you need a bunch of career years, timely hitting, and luck--but certainly a higher floor, which means we can breathe a bit easier going into the year, and also our chances of making it to the postseason are greatly increased.

 

As for 98 games, I find it unwise to predict more than 95 wins for ANY team. When predicting, I think you can say that a truly great team is a 95+ win team, a very good team is 90-95ish, a good team 85-90ish, a decent team 75-85ish wins, a poor team 65-75ish, and a totally crappy team 65 or less. Anything outside of that 65-95 range is quite rare and a lot has to go wrong or right to make it happen. In other words, even for the most stacked team I wouldn't say anything more than "this team could very easily win 95+ games."

 

 

Mostly I agree with these two statements.

 

Predicting the precise number of games any team will win in a season is as doable as picking the first round of the NCAA basketball bracket perfectly. It can be done; but the overwhelming number of variables brings the task into pure luck territory. That said, looking at the question marks each team is bringing with them to spring so far, I see the Mariners leading the pack. I believe they have the fewest question marks of the five teams up to now. I’ll pick the Angels and Rangers in a fair fight for second, and the Ath's a close third/forth. This leaves the Astros taking up the rear, yet again.

 

As of today, this is my prediction. 

 

Mariners

Angels

Rangers

Ath’s

Astros

[ukyah]

angels

mariners

whatever x 3

[Grigori]

I think the Angels will edge out the Mariners, though the Mariners appear to be very good.  The Rangers pitching is not good enough to finish more than third.  They were second to last in ERA in baseball last year, and just having Holland all season isn't going to move the needle enough.  They do have some young bullpen arms that might shine.  The bottom of their rotation won't suck, but it's not what a contender needs. The A's pitching can't be counted out, but I think if Choo and Fielder are healthy the A's finish fourth. The Astros are still not ready for prime time, but should be better.

 

As a Rangers fan, I'm very upset that they did not do more this winter.   You can't lose Perez and Harrison, do little to nothing to replace them, and expect to win anything.

[19HALO71]

Mostly I agree with these two statements.

 

Predicting the precise number of games any team will win in a season is as doable as picking the first round of the NCAA basketball bracket perfectly. It can be done; but the overwhelming number of variables brings the task into pure luck territory. That said, looking at the question marks each team is bringing with them to spring so far, I see the Mariners leading the pack. I believe they have the fewest question marks of the five teams up to now. I’ll pick the Angels and Rangers in a fair fight for second, and the Ath's a close third/forth. This leaves the Astros taking up the rear, yet again.

 

As of today, this is my prediction. 

 

Mariners

Angels

Rangers

Ath’s

Astros

Sorry Jim, I can;t get past your avatar. Did you say something?