Angels interested in James Shields

[Mark68]

I like Shields but not at the price he will command.

 

the Angels are sort of in a quandary -- if you sign a guy like Shields to a huge deal -- how do you explain that to Jered Weaver and what do you say when he says, 'hey you gave that a guy a huge deal, can we re-negotiate MY contract?"

 

I don't think we'll be in the running for the kind of money Shields is going to command........money plus years -- I'd say he looks for a four year deal, maybe a three plus one with club and player options.

This is a false claim.

 

1) Weaver is on the contract he signed and has no leverage to renegotiate.

2) Weaver, I am sure, would be fine with anything that improves the team.

3) The market is so much different now than when Weaver signed his extension.

4) Weaver didn't have to sign the extension, he didn't have to give the Angels a discount, but he did.

 

In other words, Weaver's contract should have absolutely NO bearing on how much is spent on the next free agent pitcher.

 

That being said, the ONLY pitcher the Angels should be signing to a big contract this winter is Lester.

 

No Scherzer.

No "No Game" James.

[Angelsjunky]

He's awful. I'd rather have LeBlanc in the rotation

I hope you're being ironic because otherwise this is dumb.

Shields is not past his prime, as he was as good as ever last year, but he is old so it is possible that he starts declining soon. He's going to get 4-5 years, $18-20m per, which would be hard to swallow. That said, I'd be ok with 4/$70m, but that's probably less than what he'll get.

[nando714]

He's awful. I'd rather have LeBlanc in the rotation

Calm down

[DMVol]

Pitching wasnt the reason we lost.  We have 3 great pitchers and a great bullpen.

The last thing we need is another overpaid, well past his prime DH like Ibanez, Matsui, etc.....we need starting pitching depth much more....

[tdawg87]

Signing Shields would not cost a draft pick, which is why Jerry may be checking in on him.

How does that work? He rejected the QO.

[bloodbrother]

Lot of mileage on his arm...will be 33 years old, K rate has been trending down each of the past 3 years. Please no

[nikkachez]

Nope...better spent on starting pitching....we've got guys who can DH....

Do we? At the beginning of the offseason in a 'Hot Stove Preview' by Alden Gonzalez, he quoted Jerry of wanting to add a bat on the bench to complement Cron. I think it makes sense since I'm not a huge fan of Cron. 

Edited November 18, 2014 by nikkachez

[nikkachez]

If you go after a top tier arm, why not make it Lester? No draft pick attached, he's been deadly in the playoffs over his career, and he's almost 3 years younger than Shields. 

[Chimi]

No thanks on Shields. He's terrible in the postseason.

[DMVol]

Do we? At the beginning of the offseason in a 'Hot Stove Preview' by Alden Gonzalez, he quoted Jerry of wanting to add a bat on the bench to complement Cron. I think it makes sense since I'm not a huge fan of Cron. 

 

The last thing we need is another overpaid, well past his prime DH like Ibanez, Matsui, etc.....we need starting pitching depth much more....

I don't agree with you and Jerry on this and I suspect whatever Jerry wants wins out in the end....But, even if you don't like Cron (I do), use the DH for Pujols, Hamilton, maybe Freese some, depending on what we do with infield depth....I just think sinking anything into a DH only type of guy is a bad investment....if you could get somebody who could play some 1b (if you don't like Cron, again I do) or rotate in the OF, that's a different scenario....wouldn't be opposed to that but, if we're on a limited budget (and we seem to be), I'd still rather go all in for some decent starting pitching....

[tdawg87]

Shields would be great but the only chance they have of getting him and staying under the cap is by trading Howie for a couple prospects.

If Arte is willing to go over the tax then it makes no sense to do it for Shields.

My guess is that the Angels aren't really in on him and this is just hoopla to drive up his cost.

[Guest]

Signing Shields would not cost a draft pick, which is why Jerry may be checking in on him.

 

Personally, I am against it.  He is going to get too much money and too many years for the pitcher and age he is today.

Shields declined a qualifying offer, so signing him would cost a draft pick. The only premier pitcher who wouldn't cost a draft pick is Lester, because teams are not eligible to offer qualifying offers to players they acquired mid-season.

 

IMO we should go for a couple mid-tier starting pitchers like Brandon McCarthy who won't command long term deals and who won't require giving up draft picks.

[laagamer]

I wouldn't pay ace money for a #3.

[Angel Oracle]

Take it away, Daniel Bryan.

 

No! No! No!

[Brent Maguire]

He's likely going to command 4/75 or 5/90, which is too steep IMO. He hasn't declined much and his fastball velocity was at an all time high last year but I fear he's about to enter his decline stage starting next season.

 

If you're paying him #4/5 money to be your #4/5, then that's fine. However, I don't think paying him #2/3 money based on what he's done in the past years is smart. It's all about projection and I don't believe he projects as a 2/3 going into 2015 and beyond. 

 

Pass. 

[xboom28x]

Shields would be a #3 in all but maybe 3 rotations in baseball.

[tdawg87]

I don't see how he doesn't project as a 2/3 in 2015. He was better than Weaver in pretty much every facet in 2014 and he's only a year older (without the decline in velocity).

Unfortunately he'll get a similar contract to what Weaver got, and perhaps more, yet he'll be 33 when he gets it.

[nikkachez]

I don't agree with you and Jerry on this and I suspect whatever Jerry wants wins out in the end....But, even if you don't like Cron (I do), use the DH for Pujols, Hamilton, maybe Freese some, depending on what we do with infield depth....I just think sinking anything into a DH only type of guy is a bad investment....if you could get somebody who could play some 1b (if you don't like Cron, again I do) or rotate in the OF, that's a different scenario....wouldn't be opposed to that but, if we're on a limited budget (and we seem to be), I'd still rather go all in for some decent starting pitching....

Cause we have so much depth to replace those guys when they DH. Of course whoever they get would have to play other positions, Cron is already limited to first (and that's a stretch because he already sucks there). And again with this limited budget and adding pitching stuff. Who are they gonna add? Who can they honestly get who's better than anyone in the rotation right now for $9 million dollars? You wanna know who the team could get with the money available? Anderson, Baker, Billingsley, Capuano, Chen, Correia, Floyd, maybe Harang, Hernandez, Johnson, Kendrick, Maholm, Masterson (and that's a definite maybe), Matsuzaka, Morales, Morrow, Paulino, Wandy Rodriguez, Saunders, Slowey, Stults, Villanueva, Vogelsong, and our favorite Randy Wolf. Even if you non-tender Beckham you're left with McCarthy (who could very well get priced out of our range) and a 40-year old Kuroda. 

 

This FA pitcher that everyone wants to add just simply doesn't exist, which is why Jerry is so focused on the trade market. And here's the kicker, we have no trade assets either. You either blow past the threshold and/or give up a draft pick, or you add someone that just isn't that good. I just don't think people should get their hopes up about signing a starter, staying under the threshold, and keeping the pick. 

[Guest]

Cause we have so much depth to replace those guys when they DH. Of course whoever they get would have to play other positions, Cron is already limited to first (and that's a stretch because he already sucks there). And again with this limited budget and adding pitching stuff. Who are they gonna add? Who can they honestly get who's better than anyone in the rotation right now for $9 million dollars? You wanna know who the team could get with the money available? Anderson, Baker, Billingsley, Capuano, Chen, Correia, Floyd, maybe Harang, Hernandez, Johnson, Kendrick, Maholm, Masterson (and that's a definite maybe), Matsuzaka, Morales, Morrow, Paulino, Wandy Rodriguez, Saunders, Slowey, Stults, Villanueva, Vogelsong, and our favorite Randy Wolf. Even if you non-tender Beckham you're left with McCarthy (who could very well get priced out of our range) and a 40-year old Kuroda. 

 

This FA pitcher that everyone wants to add just simply doesn't exist, which is why Jerry is so focused on the trade market. And here's the kicker, we have no trade assets either. You either blow past the threshold and/or give up a draft pick, or you add someone that just isn't that good. I just don't think people should get their hopes up about signing a starter, staying under the threshold, and keeping the pick. 

This all assumes that the luxury tax is a hard spending limit. The luxury tax is only a problem if you go over for 3 consecutive years* Going over the threshold for 1-2 years even by a sizable amount is is a basically non-issue as far as penalties go. We can afford to bring in multiple free agents so long as it's not for a long number of years. The Angels have a 2 year window to win ... set up the contracts so we're over the tax for those years, then go under the cap and rebuild during 2017 and beyond.

 

*it actually becomes quite a severe issue if you're over for 4+ consecutive years as teams can lose the right to get back a share in revenue sharing from MLB. This fact is how we were able to get the Yankees to absorb a significant fraction of the money owed to Vernon Wells. We were able to strucutre the trade in such a way that it actually lowered the Yankees effective payroll for luxury tax during one of the two years they retained Wells.

Edited November 18, 2014 by ScottLux

[Angel Oracle]

This would be so much like Arte Moreno, sign the aging pitcher to a big contract.

[Brent Maguire]

Shields would be a #3 in all but maybe 3 rotations in baseball.

Right now? Yeah, he's probably still a good #3. After 2015 or maybe even next year, I have a feeling we'll see his decline. Almost all pitchers see a decline in performance after this age. Maybe Shields is an outlier but I don't want the Angels to bank on that. 

[Brent Maguire]

I don't see how he doesn't project as a 2/3 in 2015. He was better than Weaver in pretty much every facet in 2014 and he's only a year older (without the decline in velocity).

Unfortunately he'll get a similar contract to what Weaver got, and perhaps more, yet he'll be 33 when he gets it.

You pretty much answered the questions that I have about him. There's only downhill from here with Shields. Maybe he has another year or 2 of 3-4 WAR production. Steamer projects him for a 3.62 ERA and 3 WAR in 2015. That seems pretty fair.

 

18-20 million a year for a 3-4 WAR pitcher is fair but the question is how much longer Shields continues to be a 3-4 WAR pitcher. My guess is he becomes close to a league average starter after 2015. 

[VariousCrap]

Shields declined a qualifying offer, so signing him would cost a draft pick. The only premier pitcher who wouldn't cost a draft pick is Lester, because teams are not eligible to offer qualifying offers to players they acquired mid-season.

 

IMO we should go for a couple mid-tier starting pitchers like Brandon McCarthy who won't command long term deals and who won't require giving up draft picks.

 

 

 

My mistake.  I had them switched in my head.  Sorry about that and thanks for the correction.

[VariousCrap]

How does that work? He rejected the QO.

 

 

 

My bad on that.  I had it switched up in my head with Lester.

[Angelsjunky]

Some of you folks are seriously underrating Shields. He's pretty much the definition of a #2, and a #2 on a good pitching staff. I'm not a huge fan of WAR for pitchers, but over the last four years he's 10th in the majors with 16.5. With the more traditional RA9-WAR, which is based upon runs allowed and closer to ERA, he's even better - 20.2, 6th in the majors. He's also started more games and pitched more innings than anyone else during that span, so he's quite consistent and durable.

 

The big concern is his age. He'll be 33 next year, so a 4-year contract would be 33-36, 5-year 33-37. My guess is that he wants and gets five years.

 

But to call him a #3 is under-valuing him. He's a #2, and a good #2.