2014 Angels PECOTA Projections

[KevinStockerIsGod]

Angels Position Players:

Player: AVG/R/HR/RBI/OBP/SLG

 

Conger: .224/39/9/40/.309/.381

Pujols: .287/79/28/87/.369/.521

Kendrick: .281/53/9/50/9/.324/.414

Aybar: .275/72/7/50/.314/.383

Freese: .270/65/16/70/.340/.412

Hamilton: .272/67/22/76/.330/.473

Trout: .305/110/24/84/.393/.515

Kalhoun: .262/62/15/62/.332/.431

Ibanez: .240/56/17/65/.300/.408

 

Bench:

Iannetta: .222/31/8/29/.338/.381

Shuck:  .275/34/1/21/.330/.346

Green:  .263/22/4/22/.302/.386

Pena:  .206/16/5/17/.328/.394

 

 

It looks like the big winner is David Freese, where PECOTA sees him having a nice bounce back year.  They show some regression with Trout.  They show Hamilton with a projected BA of .272, but only 22 homers and 76 RBIs.  I believe if he is hitting .272, he'd have more than 22/76. They haven't updated with our recent barrage of minor league signings.  They also don't project Green or Pena to have substantial ABs.

 

Angels Pitchers:

IP/ERA/WHIP/BB/K/W/L

 

Weaver: 194/3.13/1.15/51/167/13/10

Wilson:  186/3.68/1.31/74/165/13/11

Richards: 154/4.71/1.47/57/104/10/12

Santiago: 148/4.90/1.51/68/126/9/11

Skaggs: 130/4.10/1.36/46/114/9/9

 

Frieri: 67/3.55/1.27/31/79/30SV

Burnett: 41/3.44/1.26/14/36

Smith: 67/3.53/1.30/26/54

Jepsen: 52/4.04/1.42/21/48

De La Rosa: 52/3.51/1.33/22/51

Kohn: 62/3.91/1.38/32/68

Salas: 41/3.33/1.21/13/40

Moran: 31/3.74/1.3110/31

 

 

Some of the pitching projections outside of Weaver and Wilson are a little scary, with Skaggs showing as our 3rd best SP.  It also shows none of our SP going over 200 IP, which would be a problem. 

Edited February 4, 2014 by KevinStockerIsGod

[sneaky_flute]

I used to buy my pet supplies at PECOTA

[HaloCory22]

Damn. Our pitching looks horrible.

[LAAMike]

Just for some reference, how accurate has PECOTA been in the past?

[Reveille1984]

Bounceback year for Blanton!

[floplag]

i still say Blanton is one of the craziest things ive seen in a long time

Look at his game logs.. he had some really very good starts.. for a months or so he was downright rock solid mid season sandwiched around a terribad beginning and ending.

Similar to Santana the year before when it was total hot/cold.

I think he will do much better this year... i mean lets be honest he cant do any worse but still... he was so far off his career norms, like most everyone else last year... it has to balance out, right? 

Edited February 4, 2014 by floplag

[Inside Pitch]

If Hamilton lived up to that projection he would be a .800 OPS guy in Angel Stadium.   Last year that would have made him a 125 OPS+ hitter, which wouldn't be too far off his career 131 OPS+.   

[tdawg87]

I'd like to know how they project Santiago with those numbers after moving from a hitters park to Anaheim.

[Inside Pitch]

Just for some reference, how accurate has PECOTA been in the past?

 

They are all pretty close, it tends to fluctuate from year to year.  PECOTA is more team oriented than some of the other projections, they try to predict actual playing time and factor it into their projections for individual players.  PECOTA also puts a bit more emphasis on team defense -- that may be where some of the pitching numbers are taking a hit, the Angels defense was particularly putrid last year.   

The Angels defense last year was atrocious -- if that carries over, the pitching will suffer.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[KevinStockerIsGod]

If you're curious about former Angels:

 

Trumbo: .253/30/90/.307/.476

Bourjos: .251/11/49.302/.391

 

Tommy Hanson: 3.83/1.27/90Ks

[Inside Pitch]

I'd like to know how they project Santiago with those numbers after moving from a hitters park to Anaheim.

They are probably thinking he was lucky based on his FIP being 4.44 last year.   Throw in our bad defense last season and boom.

[SoWhat]

Eh, I never read into all these projections.

[KevinStockerIsGod]

PECOTA has the Angels in 2nd place in the division at 87-75, 1 game behind the A's at 88-74.

[floplag]

2 things i know...

this team is not near as bad as it played last year

stats so not take anomalies into account very well in projections, and we had about 10 of them last year, lol

[NrM]

PECOTA has the Angels in 2nd place in the division at 87-75, 1 game behind the A's at 88-74.

 

With those starting rotation projections? How?  Their rotation has no depth and they have all the starters pitching below 200 IP.

 

I guess PECOTA expects the offense to be a lot better than it was last year.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Poozy

[Blarg]

Just for some reference, how accurate has PECOTA been in the past?

I think the description is, not.

[KevinStockerIsGod]

With those starting rotation projections? How?  Their rotation has no depth and they have all the starters pitching below 200 IP.

 

I guess PECOTA expects the offense to be a lot better than it was last year.

 

Yes, we are projected to have a plus 66 run differential, 774-708.  Not only do they project us a game out in the AL West, we have the 2nd wild card.

[KevinStockerIsGod]

With those starting rotation projections? How?  Their rotation has no depth and they have all the starters pitching below 200 IP.

 

I guess PECOTA expects the offense to be a lot better than it was last year.

 

We have the 4th most runs allowed in the AL West, but by far, the best offensive output per the projection.  In fact, we are projected to score the 2nd most runs in 2014, only behind Boston.

Edited February 4, 2014 by KevinStockerIsGod

[Brent Maguire]

Man that Trout projection is low. He was almost a 1.000 OPS guy last year and I don't think that'll change this year.

The pitching staff doesn't look too great. Santiago won't be anywhere close to that bad and I think Richards is better than his projection as well.

[m0nkey]

Well this isn't depressing

[IowaAngels27]

The only projections even worth looking at are ZiPS and anything by Bill James. Projecting Trout to hit .305 is almost as funny as projecting Trumbo will hit .253.

[Docwaukee]

2 things i know...

this team is not near as bad as it played last year

stats so not take anomalies into account very well in projections, and we had about 10 of them last year, lol

I think that sums up any projection system pretty well.  ie, everything goes as expected.  

 

last year, we were worse than the sum of the parts.  If they play to what they are, it's an 85-90 win team.  

Pretty much every projection system has been about the same.  

 

I find these interesting from an overall team standpoint and lesser so for each individual player.  I think it's helpful to try and assess on paper where the big holes are.  

For instance, expecting 200ip each from Skaggs, Santiago, and Richards is setting yourself up for failure.  Their IP numbers probably aren't that far off which mean a fair amount of starts will go to the next three in line.  

 

I also see a collection of fairly mediocre to not very good pen arms.  As we know, pen production can vary wildly from year to year per individual player.  Hopefully, there is enough depth there that a couple of the more mediocre guys can have good years and if a couple other guys don't they can be switched out.   

[Thomas]

Would it really surprise anyone that the human outlier Mike Trout would break a statistically based projection system?

[Hollyw00d]

Pretty optimistic projection imo, especially on offense

[WallyWorld]

the thing about these projections is, even if you knew for a fact what every individual player was going to do on the year, so much of baseball is situational that it really wouldn't tell you how the season was going to go.  A team might only get 3 hits in a game, but if those 3 hits come at the right time it could lead to multiple runs and a W.  If you looked at the A's individual players stats the last couple years, I don't think you would assume their record was as good as it was, but they seemed to get their hits always at the right time, and their pitchers got outs when it counted, and so on.